苹果价格走势

Search documents
苹果8月报:早熟苹果陆续上市,或将支撑富士价格-20250731
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 11:20
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The price center of the Apple Futures October contract has oscillated upward, rising from around 7,600 - 7,700 yuan/ton to the current 7,800 - 8,000 yuan/ton. Low cold - storage apple inventory and high prices of early - maturing apples support the price [4][10]. - In August, the market is expected to trade on the impact of new - season apple prices on late - maturing Fuji prices, with a high probability of support. The downward space for the Apple Futures October contract is limited, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [5][36]. - The overall trading strategy is to be bullish on dips for single - side trading and to wait and see for arbitrage [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Preface Summary 1. Market Review - In July, apple prices remained high, with a slight decline in cold - storage Fuji prices at the end of July. The Apple Futures October contract price center oscillated upward. High prices of early - maturing apples are expected to support late - maturing Fuji prices. Shandong and Shaanxi apple prices are higher than last year [4][10]. 2. Market Outlook - Low inventory of this season's apples will support the opening prices of early - maturing apples like Gala. Uncertainty about the new - season apple yield is a potential positive factor for futures prices. The Apple Futures October contract is expected to have limited downward space in August [5]. 3. Strategy Recommendation - Single - side trading: Adopt a bullish - on - dips approach. Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] Part 2: Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In July, apple prices were high at first and then declined slightly. The price center of the Apple Futures October contract moved up. Apple prices are expected to remain relatively high in August with the large - scale listing of early - maturing apples [10]. 2. Low Apple Inventory - As of July 25, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 704,500 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. In August, cold - storage apple inventory is expected to remain at a historically low level [13]. 3. New - Season Apple Expectations - Most early - maturing apple varieties' transaction prices are higher than last year. The new - season Shaanxi apple output may be lower than expected, and the overall new - season apple output may not change much compared to the old season. The initial purchase price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high but will decline later [18][20]. 4. Apple Demand in the Off - season - In July, cold - storage apple shipments were low, and terminal market demand was in the off - season. In August, cold - storage apple shipments and terminal daily arrivals are expected to remain low [21][22]. 5. Import and Export Situation - In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, while the import volume increased. In July, the export volume is expected to increase slightly, and the import volume is expected to decrease [28]. 6. Substitute Situation - In July, watermelon prices continued to fall, and the prices of six key - monitored fruits also declined. In August, the prices of these fruits are expected to decline further [31] Part 3: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - On the supply side, cold - storage inventory is at a low level, and new - season apples are gradually being listed. On the demand side, apple demand is expected to improve in mid - August. The low inventory of this season's apples and uncertain new - season yields support futures prices, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [34][36]
苹果产业日报-20250717
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 13:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current apple inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased year - on - year, which strongly supports the price. However, the large - scale listing of summer cooling fruits impacts apple demand, resulting in insufficient price momentum. In the short term, the apple price is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. It is recommended to take short - term long positions when the price is low and continue to monitor the production situation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple futures contract is 7,835 yuan/ton, the main contract's open interest is 93,033 hands (a decrease of 3,811 hands), the number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 5,932 hands (a decrease of 1,674 hands) [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia apples (second - grade fruit from farmers, paper - bagged 80 and above) is 4 yuan/jin, the national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons, the wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.66 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg) [2] Upstream Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 91.49 million tons (a decrease of 7.82 million tons), the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.06, the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.13 (both decreased by 0.01), the monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons (a decrease of 20,000 tons), the monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 2,552.9 million dollars, and the monthly apple export value is 5,152.5 million dollars [2] Industry Situation - The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.9 yuan/jin (an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin) [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.12 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.28 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of bananas is 6.15 yuan/kg (a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg), the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.94 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg), the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 11 vehicles, the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 19.4 vehicles (a decrease of 0.8 vehicles), and the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 7.8 vehicles (a decrease of 0.6 vehicles) [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 17.32% (an increase of 0.03%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 17.36% (an increase of 0.06%), and the 60 - day historical volatility of apples is 14.95% (a decrease of 0.2%) [2] Industry News - On July 17, 2025, the apple trading in the production areas remained sluggish. The remaining goods in the western production areas were limited, and the sales speed was acceptable with stable prices. In the Shandong production area, the remaining farmer - owned apples were mainly large fruits with uneven quality, and the prices were negotiated. The self - stored goods of merchants were digested through their own channels with a slow sales speed. The apple 2510 contract closed down 0.11% on Thursday. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple production is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons (a 2.35% increase) compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Inventory Situation - As of July 16, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas was 80.60 million tons, a decrease of 10.89 million tons from the previous week. The sales speed improved slightly compared to the previous week and was similar to the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area was 12.15% (a decrease of 1.06% from the previous week), and the de - stocking speed increased slightly. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area was 4.63% (a decrease of 1.09% from the previous week), and the sales were slightly faster than the previous week [2]
苹果产业日报-20250624
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 10:22
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of June 18, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storages in the main producing areas of China was 1164900 tons, a decrease of 109700 tons compared with the previous week. The shipping speed was basically the same as last week but slower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 16.43%, a decrease of 0.86% from last week, and the de - stocking speed slowed down. Shandong is in the busy farming season with light trading. The storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi was 8.9%, a decrease of 0.76% from last week, and the shipping was slightly slower than last week. Other fruits' competition and substitution increase, the apple demand is weak, and the shipping speed slows down. Later, fruit farmers' willingness to sell may improve, putting pressure on apple prices. However, the current low inventory still supports prices, and the market will fluctuate in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the bagging situation [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 7674 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the closing price of the October contract was 7674 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan. The position of the main contract was 91335 lots, an increase of 1277 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 0. The net long position of the top 20 futures was 4117 lots, an increase of 1631 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged 80 and above, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) was 4.1 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged 75 and above) it was 2.6 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged 75 and above) it was 4.5 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged 70 and above semi - commercial) it was 4.2 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area was 1955.77 thousand hectares, a decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares; the national apple output was 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. The weekly wholesale price of apples was 9.59 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.56 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The total inventory of national apple cold storages was 116.49 million tons, a decrease of 10.97 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.16, a decrease of 0.01; in Shaanxi it was 0.08, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples was 50000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons; the monthly export value was 51525000 US dollars, a decrease of 25529000 US dollars. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 2201050171064370.17 US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants was 0.9 yuan/jin, unchanged. The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 8.5 yuan/kg, up 0.38 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of pears was 6.75 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of bananas was 6.61 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons was 4.11 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market was 10.25, an increase of 2.25; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market it was 14.25, an increase of 2.45; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market it was 22.25, an increase of 1.45 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 15.72%, up 0.24%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.71%, up 0.23% [2] Industry News - On June 24, 2025, the overall apple market in the producing areas remained weak. After the busy farming season, the number of inquiring merchants increased, but they were cautious in purchasing. Especially in the middle and late stages, there were many situations of price - pressing and selective picking for poor - quality goods. Packaging procurement was not active, and most of the goods were shipped by inventory holders themselves. The price of high - quality goods was stable, while there were price - concession transactions for poor - quality and clearance goods. For the new - season apples, the bagging work in the producing areas was coming to an end, and the production situation was becoming clear. According to the market research on the fruit - setting and bagging in the main apple - producing areas of Shaanxi, the fruit - setting and bagging situation this year will not have a particularly large reduction compared with the same period last year, with an expected reduction of 5% - 10% [2]
瑞达期货苹果产业日报-20250612
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 09:05
部分合适货源难寻,存货商要价暂未有明显松动。需求疲软,走货速度放缓,去库存进度变慢,且减产幅 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 行。后续继续关注套袋情况。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 苹果产业日报 2025-06-12 度或小于预期,支撑作用减弱,导致苹果价格承压,不过当前库存较低,对价格有一定支撑,短期震荡运 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 7576 25 10月合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) | 7576 | 25 | | 期货 ...
苹果月报:冷库出库量大,苹果价格强势-20250425
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 15:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, apples will maintain a state of tight supply and relatively optimistic demand. The spot price of apples in May is likely to continue to move up slightly, and will probably remain in high - level oscillation with limited upward space as other fruits are on the market in June [4][46] - The price of the apple futures 10 - month contract is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the first half of May. The trend will change as the impact of weather becomes clearer in the second half of May. However, considering the low cold - storage inventory, the downward space is limited [5][47] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. April Market Review - In April, the apple price continued to rise. The cold - storage inventory was low, and the demand entered the seasonal peak. The spot price increased slightly by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan. The price center of the May futures contract rose from 7700 - 7800 yuan/ton to around 8000 yuan/ton, and that of the October contract rose from 7500 - 7600 yuan/ton to 7800 - 8000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Overview - In April, apple inventory was relatively low, demand was fair, and prices were firm with some price increases. Before the May Day holiday, market restocking led to high enthusiasm among merchants, active trading of all kinds of goods, and accelerated cold - storage shipments. Sellers' reluctance to sell due to low inventory pushed up the spot price [7] - The trading price of Shandong Qixia paper - bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods was 4.1 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from March and 0.9 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 28.1%. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan paper - bagged Fuji 70 semi - commercial goods was 4.3 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the end of March, and 0.7 yuan/jin lower than the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [8][10] 2.2 Apple Inventory Situation - As of April 25, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 309.98 million tons, a decrease of 161.84 million tons from four weeks ago and a year - on - year decrease of 38.3%. Shandong's inventory was 125.9 million tons (down 37.3% year - on - year), Shaanxi's was 104.19 million tons (down 38.2% year - on - year), Gansu's was 52.52 million tons (up 16% year - on - year), Shanxi's was 11.6 million tons (down 76% year - on - year), and Liaoning's was 9.35 million tons (down 72.8% year - on - year) [14] - In May, the cold - storage apple shipment volume is expected to decline compared with April but remain at a relatively high level [14] 2.3 May as the Verification Period of Apple Yield - In April, most apple - producing areas had good weather during the flowering period. The gale, cooling, and sandstorm weather from April 11 - 13 may have affected apple blossom, but the overall impact on yield is not significant. The impact on fruit - setting rate is yet to be verified during the bagging period in mid - to late May [27][28] 2.4 Demand Situation - In April, the cold - storage apple shipment volume was high, with weekly shipments ranging from 30 - 45 million tons. The cold - storage apple profit was good, with the cold - storage gross profit of Shandong Qixia Fuji first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 reaching 0.9 yuan/jin as of April 25 [29] - The arrival volume in the sales area market was average. The arrival volume in Guangzhou's three major wholesale markets in April was slightly higher than that in March but lower than that of the previous two years. The terminal demand improved slightly [29][30] 2.5 Import and Export Situation - In March 2024, the fresh apple export volume was about 96,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 255,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [36] - In March 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 9,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.7% and a year - on - year increase of 167.1%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 13,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9% [36] - In the next few months, apple imports and exports are expected to remain at a relatively high level compared with the same period, but there is a strong seasonality. Usually, the export volume decreases in April, while the import volume increases [36] 2.6 Substitute Situation - In late March, the supply of mandarins decreased, and the price rose to a high level compared with the same period. As of the week of April 18, the average wholesale price of mandarins was 7.61 yuan/kg, basically the same as the previous month [41] - The price of Ya pears was basically stable. As of the week of April 18, the average wholesale price of Ya pears was 5.68 yuan/kg, a slight decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous month [41] - In May, there will be a relative gap in the listing of large - quantity alternative fruits, so it is still a seasonal consumption peak for apples [41] 3. Market Outlook - In the short term, apples will maintain a state of tight supply and relatively optimistic demand. The spot price of apples in May is likely to continue to move up slightly, and will probably remain in high - level oscillation with limited upward space as other fruits are on the market in June [4][46] - The price of the apple futures 10 - month contract is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the first half of May. The trend will change as the impact of weather becomes clearer in the second half of May. However, considering the low cold - storage inventory, the downward space is limited [5][47]