| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 2 | | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、冷库去库速度尚可 | | 3 | | 三、3、4 | | 月份苹果需求预计将季节性好转 5 | | 四、进出口情况 | | 7 | | 五、替代水果价格偏高 | | 8 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 8 | | 免责声明 | | 9 | 农产品板块研发报告 苹果月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 苹果库存偏低 需求预期好转 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 期货方面，2 月份苹果期货主连价格重心继续上移，价格重心小幅上移， 价格重心由之前的 9400-9700 元/吨附近上移至 9400-9900 元/吨的价格区间震 荡。苹果期货价格重心走高的主要原因有几方面，分别是本果季冷库苹果库存 低且质量偏差、春季前冷库苹果需求尚可以及苹果仓单的制成成本偏高等。 【市场展望】 基本面分析：供应端，今年苹果冷库库存低以及质量差，目前冷库苹果库存处 于近些年 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the content Group 2: Core View - The market has reached a consensus on the low inventory and poor quality of apples in cold storage this year. The point of divergence lies in the demand situation. The pre - Spring Festival market restocking was okay, with the apple outbound volume from cold storage at a medium level compared to the same period in previous years, causing the year - on - year decline in recent cold storage inventory data to widen again. The apple warehouse receipt cost this season is high, around 9700 - 10000 yuan/ton. As the March contract will enter the delivery period after the Spring Festival, the market may trade on the warehouse receipt cost issue, so it is expected that the price of the May contract will remain in a short - term upward trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 107.22, down 0.30 from the next working day. Prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remain unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.98 yuan, up 0.01 from the next working day [2] - **Futures Prices**: AP01 is at 8209, up 56 from yesterday's close; AP05 is at 9739, up 138; AP10 is at 8318, up 60. The spreads between different contracts also show corresponding changes [2] - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against different futures contracts shows a downward trend [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - **Market News**: As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of apples in cold storage in major producing areas across the country is 619.81 million tons, a decrease of 34.25 million tons compared to last week, with the destocking speed accelerating compared to the previous week and higher than the same period last year. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume was 3100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. The mainstream prices of apples in the production areas are stable, with the cold storage packaging in Shandong nearing completion and more cold storages in the northwest region still packaging and shipping [7] - **Trading Logic**: Due to low cold - storage inventory, poor apple quality, and high warehouse - receipt costs, the price of the May contract is expected to remain strong in the short term [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the May contract on dips, go short on the October contract on rallies; conduct a long - May and short - October arbitrage; and it is recommended to wait and see for options [8] Third Part: Related Attachments - The content includes multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volumes in certain markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][18]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting forecasts the competitive strategy and market demand for the banana industry in China from 2026 to 2032 [1] Price Trends - As of December 2025, the national market price for medium bananas was 6.4 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 0.29 yuan per kilogram from November 2025, which corresponds to a month-on-month growth of 4.9% [1] - The increase in price from November to December 2025 represents a rise of 8.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, while the year-on-year growth has decreased by 8%, with a change of 7.8 percentage points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Province has made significant advancements in agricultural technology during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on nine key innovation areas to enhance high-quality agricultural development [3][4][5]. Group 1: Agricultural Technology Innovations - The Guangdong Seed Industry Expo showcased key progress in nine major agricultural technology innovation directions, including seed industry revitalization, disease prevention, smart equipment, processing value addition, and soil protection [2][3][4]. - The South American white shrimp breeding and industrialization project led by Sun Yat-sen University has established a genetic resource bank and developed two national approved shrimp varieties, resulting in over 200 billion shrimp larvae sold [8][10][11]. Group 2: Disease Prevention and Control - The new comprehensive disease prevention technology project, undertaken by the Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, has developed remote monitoring and early warning systems for major livestock diseases, along with six new diagnostic technologies and vaccines [17][19][20]. - The integrated technology system has been applied in core breeding and large-scale farming sites, achieving a contract value of 5.4 million yuan from two technology transfers [21]. Group 3: Smart Harvesting Technologies - The intelligent harvesting technology for Lingnan specialty fruits, led by Jiaying University, has developed various harvesting equipment and filed 39 invention patents, with contracts worth nearly 1 million yuan for the lychee harvesting robot [22][24][26]. Group 4: Functional Gene Exploration - The project on functional gene exploration and application for important crops has identified 25 new genes and created 41 new breeding materials, with over 50 published SCI papers [34][36][38]. Group 5: Soil Degradation Control - The soil degradation control technology project has developed 14 technologies and established demonstration projects covering over 10,000 acres, with a projected sales increase of 18.74 million yuan in 2024 [47][50][52]. Group 6: Carbon Neutrality Initiatives - The microbial group research and application technology for achieving "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" has led to a 14-53% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and a 90% reduction in livestock waste odor [54][56][59].

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、冷库去库速度加快 | 3 | | 三、春节前备货开启 苹果需求尚可 | 5 | | 四、进出口情况 | 7 | | 五、替代品情况 | 8 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | 免责声明 | 10 | 农产品板块研发报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 去库速度加快 苹果需求尚可 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 期货方面，1 月份苹果期货主连价格震荡略偏强，价格重心有所上移， 价格重心由之前的 8900-9200 元/吨附近上移至 9400-9700 元/吨的价格区 间震荡。苹果期货价格重心走高的主要原因是今果季苹果入库量低、冷库果 质量偏差以及苹果仓单的制成成本偏高。 【市场展望】 基本面分析：供应端，今年苹果冷库库存低以及质量差，目前冷库苹果库存处 于近些年次低位，供应略偏紧。需求端，今年春节时间较晚，节前备货行情启动， 目前来看需求尚可。成本端，今年苹果仓单成本较高，从 1 ...

Seafood Industry - The seafood market in Shandong is experiencing a surge in demand during the Spring Festival, with significant activity in Qingdao and Rizhao, where oyster processing is reaching daily volumes of tens of thousands of pounds [1][4][7] - In Qingdao, the Red Island Fishing Port is bustling with activity as fishing boats unload oysters, which are then sorted, weighed, and packaged for sale [4][7] - Rizhao's seafood markets are well-stocked, with a variety of fresh seafood and popular dried products like grilled shrimp and squid being highly sought after by consumers [11] Flower Industry - In Yunnan, the flower market is seeing a peak in production and sales, particularly for the lotus flower, which symbolizes good fortune as the Year of the Horse approaches [12][13] - The black lotus flower is gaining popularity among consumers, reflecting a desire for success in the upcoming year [13] - The Kunming Dounan Flower Market, Asia's largest fresh-cut flower trading market, is also seeing strong sales for traditional New Year flowers and other ornamental plants [13][15] Agricultural Products - The Northeast New Fa Di Agricultural Supply Chain Center in Liaoning is bustling with activity as it prepares for the Spring Festival, attracting buyers from across the country [16][18] - Daily sales of sugar oranges are around 80 tons, with local vegetable procurement also increasing significantly as the festival approaches [18][20] - The center serves as a distribution hub for Liaoning's agricultural products, with improved transportation routes enhancing the flow of goods to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [21]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Apple futures' main contract opened with a downward gap and weakened, with a decline exceeding 2%. Despite the post - New Year cold - storage weekly de - stocking volume exceeding 100,000 tons, the terminal consumption recovery was weaker than expected. The apple futures price still has upward drivers due to factors such as the approaching Spring Festival consumption peak and the increasing cost of warehouse receipt registration, but the de - stocking rhythm of general goods and changes in the mainstream transaction price are key variables affecting the market trend [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Situation - After the new - season apples were harvested in November 2025, the apple futures price soared to 10,000 yuan/ton due to reduced production and a higher proportion of low - quality fruits. However, the concentrated listing of seasonal fruits such as southern citrus and imported cherries diverted apple consumption, resulting in a significant lag in the market de - stocking progress compared to the same period in previous years [3] Regional Market Conditions - In the Qixia market, the trading of stored Fuji apples remained sluggish, with cold - storage shipments mainly from merchants' self - stored sources, few transactions of farmers' apples, slow sales, and the market in a weak consolidation state. In the Luochuan area, the trading atmosphere of stored Fuji apples was average, with a slight increase in merchants' packaging and shipping volume but mainly for immediate pick - up, and limited transactions of farmers' apples. In the Jingning area, the trading was relatively stable, with merchants preferentially handling their self - stored sources, few transactions of farmers' apples, and sporadic transactions mainly for high - quality goods [4] Overall Market Structure - Currently, the overall supply of cold - storage apples is sufficient, but there is a prominent structural contradiction: the market circulation volume of high - quality apples is limited, while the sales progress of low - quality apples is relatively slow. With the start of Spring Festival stocking demand, the competition for high - quality fruit sources has intensified, further highlighting the scarcity of good goods and increasing the cost of warehouse receipt registration [5] Operational Suggestions - Try to go long when the main 05 contract is below 9,500 yuan/ton. For options, buy AP05 - C - 9600 and sell AP05 - P - 9000 [5]

Group 1: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index is 109.01, up 0.31 from the previous trading day [2] - Luochuan Semi - Commodity Paper - bagged 70 is 4.20 yuan, unchanged [2] - Qixia First and Second - grade Paper - bagged 80 is 4.10 yuan, unchanged [2] - Yiyuan Paper - bagged 70 is 2.50 yuan, unchanged [2] - Penglai First and Second - grade Paper - bagged 80 is 4.25 yuan, unchanged [2] - The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.80 yuan, down 0.07 [2] Futures Prices - AP01 has a value of 0, and the change is -9999 [2] - AP05 is 9630, and the change is not clearly presented [2] - AP10 is 8481, up 9 from the previous trading day [2] Price Differentials - Qixia First and Second - grade 80 - AP01 is 8200, up 9999 [2] - Qixia First and Second - grade 80 - AP05 is -1430, up 59 [2] - Qixia First and Second - grade 80 - AP10 is -281.0, down 9 [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Transaction Logic - This season's apple warehouse receipts have high costs due to low high - quality fruit rates, supporting the apple futures price [5] - The latest cold - storage apple outbound volume in the week of January 2nd is 10.47 million tons, and although the year - on - year volume decreased, the peak sales season is postponed due to the later Spring Festival [5] - As of January 2nd, the national cold - storage inventory is 7.3356 billion tons, at a low level only higher than the 2018/19 season [5] - The 5 - month contract has weakened recently due to the expected weak demand, but it may rise if the demand remains normal [5] Transaction Strategy - For the single - side strategy, hold the long position in the May contract and short the October contract on rallies [8] - For the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short the October contract [8] - For the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Other Market Data - As of January 7, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas is 7.209 billion tons, a decrease of 126,000 tons from last week, with a slightly faster de - stocking speed [7] - In November 2025, the fresh apple import volume is 0.25 million tons, a 18.19% month - on - month decrease and a 48.76% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume from January to November 2025 is 1.137 billion tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [7] - In November 2025, the fresh apple export volume is about 1.216 billion tons, a 51.28% month - on - month increase and a 12.42% year - on - year increase [7] - The apple prices in the producing areas are stable, with the main market trend being flat. The cold - storage packaging volume in the producing areas has increased, but the merchants' stocking enthusiasm is average [7] - The mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples above 70 in Luochuan cold storage is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and the market is stable during the Spring Festival stocking period [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the successful launch of the Wuming Wolgan sales season, which generated nearly 900 million yuan in procurement agreements, marking a strong start for the new sales season [52][54][55] - The sales event attracted both domestic and international buyers, with shipments heading to markets in Russia, Canada, and India [54][55] - This initiative is part of a broader strategy to promote rural revitalization through agricultural exports and enhance the economic impact of local products [52][54] Group 2 - The Guangdong province is implementing a new agricultural technology promotion model to enhance the efficiency of agricultural modernization, focusing on a three-tiered collaborative mechanism [18][21][22] - The province is hosting the Guangdong Seed Industry Expo as a key initiative to showcase agricultural achievements and foster connections between research and practical application in farming [19][21] - This approach aims to address the challenges of agricultural technology dissemination and improve overall agricultural productivity [19][20][21] Group 3 - The article highlights the rise of a mural in Wu Ying Village, which has become a social media sensation, attracting visitors and promoting local values [10][11][12] - The mural serves as a symbol of community identity and a reminder of the importance of recognizing and valuing local culture in the face of modernization [11][12][13] - This phenomenon illustrates the potential for art and culture to drive tourism and community engagement in rural areas [10][11][12] Group 4 - The Guangdong province is focusing on integrating AI technology into the traditional Chinese medicine industry, aiming to enhance quality and innovation [62][66][67] - A recent conference gathered industry experts to discuss the integration of AI and the establishment of standard systems to support the development of traditional medicine [65][66] - This initiative is part of a broader effort to strengthen Guangdong's position as a leader in the traditional medicine sector [62][66][67]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This season's apple warehouse receipts have high costs due to a low premium fruit rate, strongly supporting the apple futures price. The latest data on January 2nd shows that the cold - storage apple出库量 is 104,700 tons. Although the year - on - year出库量 has decreased, the peak sales season is postponed because this year's Spring Festival is about 3 weeks later than in 2025. The current出库情况 indicates acceptable demand. With low cold - storage inventory (7.3356 million tons on January 2nd, only higher than the 2018/19 period), if the出库量 remains normal, apple supply will be tight later. The 5 - month contract has weakened recently as the market previously expected weak apple demand. However, if the demand stays normal, the 5 - month contract price is likely to rise [5]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index is 109.01, up 0.31 from the next - working - day price. The average wholesale price of 6 fruits is 7.68, down 0.06. Prices of various apple varieties like the Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remain unchanged [2]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 is 10,000, down 100 from yesterday's close; AP05 is 9,614, up 67; AP10 is 8,531, up 81. The spreads such as AP01 - AP05, AP05 - AP10, and AP10 - AP01 have also changed [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against AP01 is - 1,800, up 100; against AP05 is - 1,414, down 67; against AP10 is - 331, down 81 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Transaction Logic**: High - cost apple warehouse receipts support the futures price. The postponed Spring Festival affects the sales peak. Low cold - storage inventory may lead to supply tightness. The 5 - month contract price may rise if demand is normal [5]. - **Transaction Strategy**: Hold long positions in the 5 - month contract, short the 10 - month contract at high prices. For arbitrage, go long on 5 - month and short on 10 - month contracts. It is recommended to wait and see for options [8]. - **Other Market Information**: As of December 24, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory is 7.4404 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,400 tons, with a slower de - stocking rate than last year. In November 2025, the fresh apple import volume is 0.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%; the export volume is about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. Apple prices in the producing areas are stable, and the market is in the Spring Festival stocking stage [7]. Third Part: Relevant Attachments - There are 10 figures including the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, AP contract main basis, and various contract spreads, as well as apple arrival volume and 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and出库量 [11][13][20][23]