Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The short - term apple futures price is expected to maintain high - level operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,531 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest is 137,175 hands, with an increase of 12,638 hands compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8,910 hands, a decrease of 990 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 first - grade secondary fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change in all the prices compared to the previous period [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. The weekly apple fruit wholesale price is 9.4 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg. The national total apple cold - storage inventory is 773.16 million tons, the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.54, an increase of 0.03, and the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.53, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, with the monthly apple export amount year - on - year growth rate at - 14.3%, and the monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1,334,364 million US dollars, a decrease of 503,616 million US dollars [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale prices of pear, banana, and watermelon are 6.71 yuan/kg, 5.37 yuan/kg, and 5.78 yuan/kg respectively. The daily average number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets in the morning is 12.2, 16, and 23.8 respectively, with no change compared to the previous period [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 17.51%, a decrease of 9.26%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.51%, a decrease of 9.27% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The trading of inventory apples in apple - producing areas is generally inactive. Merchants are making tentative purchases for market distribution, but the market sales speed is slow. The trading is somewhat stalemated, and the transaction prices change little. There is a small amount of remaining ground - sourced apples in Shandong and Shanxi, with a decline in quality, and most of the transactions are based on negotiated prices. Apples in Shandong and Shanxi are still being stored, the ground - sourced trading is gradually ending, and the trading of stored - sourced goods is limited [2]. 3.8观点总结 - In Shandong, the ground - sourced trading in the Shandong production area is coming to an end, with a small amount of apples being stored in some places like Qixia, and the storage of some Cream Fuji is also ending. In Shaanxi, the storage is basically completed, and the production area has started to transfer to outbound storage. In northern Shaanxi, most merchants distribute their self - stored goods, and there is a small amount of goods transferred through some foreign - trade channels. In southern Shaanxi, fruit farmers' goods are mainly transferred, and the transaction is better than that in northern Shaanxi. Some of the goods go to the second - and third - tier markets, and some are transferred by Shandong merchants. The performance of the sales area market is average, and attention should be paid to the substitution effect of citrus fruits on the market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The current apple inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted the apple demand, and the potential increase in the new - season apple production may restrain the price trend. In the short term, the apple price is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend. It is recommended to focus on the production situation in the future, and the operation strategy is to go long on dips while controlling risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is not specified in the table, the main contract's open interest is 7956 hands, a decrease of 1666 hands compared with the previous period; the apple warehouse receipt quantity is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 4434 hands, a decrease of 1418 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged apples above 80 grade 2, farmer - sourced) is 4 yuan per jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons compared with the previous period [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.75 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 80.6 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 10.89 yuan; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 9.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.12, a decrease of 0.01; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.05, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245562.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.63 yuan per kilogram, the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.06 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.09 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.92 yuan per kilogram; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 5.8 vehicles, a decrease of 2 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 9.2 vehicles, a decrease of 1.8 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16.6 vehicles, a decrease of 2.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 15.75%, a decrease of 0.59%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 15.75%, a decrease of 0.59% [2] Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the western production area basically ended, with a small amount of remaining goods mainly sold by merchants for their own use, and the price was stable. The market for inventory apples in the Shandong production area was weak, the trading of farmer - sourced apples was slow, and purchasers pressured prices, resulting in many transactions at discounted prices. The early - maturing apples in the western production area continued to be listed, and the transaction price of varieties such as Yuncheng smooth - skinned Gala was basically the same as last year. The apple 2510 contract rose 0.73% on Wednesday. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 80.60 million tons, a decrease of 10.89 million tons compared with the previous week, and the sales speed improved slightly compared with the previous week, showing little difference compared with the same period last year. The Shandong production area's storage capacity ratio was 12.15%, a decrease of 1.06% compared with the previous week, and the inventory reduction speed improved slightly. The Shaanxi production area's storage capacity ratio was 4.63%, a decrease of 1.09% compared with the previous week, and the sales were slightly faster than the previous week. Overall, the current inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted the apple demand, and the potential increase in the new - season apple production may restrain the price trend [2] Suggested Attention - There is no news today, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the apple production situation [2]