Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The current apple inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted the apple demand, and the potential increase in the new - season apple production may restrain the price trend. In the short term, the apple price is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend. It is recommended to focus on the production situation in the future, and the operation strategy is to go long on dips while controlling risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is not specified in the table, the main contract's open interest is 7956 hands, a decrease of 1666 hands compared with the previous period; the apple warehouse receipt quantity is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 4434 hands, a decrease of 1418 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged apples above 80 grade 2, farmer - sourced) is 4 yuan per jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons compared with the previous period [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.75 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 80.6 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 10.89 yuan; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 9.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.12, a decrease of 0.01; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.05, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245562.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.63 yuan per kilogram, the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.06 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.09 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.92 yuan per kilogram; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 5.8 vehicles, a decrease of 2 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 9.2 vehicles, a decrease of 1.8 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16.6 vehicles, a decrease of 2.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 15.75%, a decrease of 0.59%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 15.75%, a decrease of 0.59% [2] Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the western production area basically ended, with a small amount of remaining goods mainly sold by merchants for their own use, and the price was stable. The market for inventory apples in the Shandong production area was weak, the trading of farmer - sourced apples was slow, and purchasers pressured prices, resulting in many transactions at discounted prices. The early - maturing apples in the western production area continued to be listed, and the transaction price of varieties such as Yuncheng smooth - skinned Gala was basically the same as last year. The apple 2510 contract rose 0.73% on Wednesday. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 80.60 million tons, a decrease of 10.89 million tons compared with the previous week, and the sales speed improved slightly compared with the previous week, showing little difference compared with the same period last year. The Shandong production area's storage capacity ratio was 12.15%, a decrease of 1.06% compared with the previous week, and the inventory reduction speed improved slightly. The Shaanxi production area's storage capacity ratio was 4.63%, a decrease of 1.09% compared with the previous week, and the sales were slightly faster than the previous week. Overall, the current inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted the apple demand, and the potential increase in the new - season apple production may restrain the price trend [2] Suggested Attention - There is no news today, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the apple production situation [2]