1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The good-quality apples in the producing areas remain stable and firm, while the general-quality apples from farmers are slightly weak. Merchants have a strong willingness to purchase good-quality apples. It is expected that the trading of good-quality apples in the western region will be active in the short term, and the overall price will remain stable, continuing the polarization trend [2]. - The shipment situation in the producing areas varies, with the western region being stronger than the eastern region. As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of apple cold storages in the main producing areas across the country was 527.53 tons, a decrease of 25.39 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory removal speed has accelerated [2]. - In the sales areas, the post - festival market sales are stable, the market arrival volume is low, and the shipment has slowed down. However, due to the influence of low inventory, low high - quality fruit rate, and delivery logic, the price of the short - term apple main contract fluctuates more violently [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 10,236 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan; the position of the main contract is 115,949 lots, an increase of 3,378 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 9,211 lots, a decrease of 12 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70) is 4.2 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 3.7 yuan/jin, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in the country is 5,128.51 tons; the weekly apple wholesale price is 168.34 yuan/kg; the national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, a decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 0.09 yuan/kg [2]. Industry Situation - The total inventory of national apple cold storages is 527.53 tons, a decrease of 25.39 tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 41.561%, a decrease of 1.45%; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 41.75%, a decrease of 2.13%; the monthly apple export volume is 160,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons; the monthly year - on - year export amount is 30.7%, an increase of 14.5%; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 US dollars, an increase of 657,409 US dollars; the weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.3 yuan/jin, with no change [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 6.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.52 yuan/kg, with no change; the average daily early - morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 9.6 vehicles, a decrease of 2.65 vehicles; the average daily early - morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 12.4 vehicles, a decrease of 2.85 vehicles; the average daily early - morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 18.4 vehicles, a decrease of 4.85 vehicles [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 36.26%, a decrease of 2.25%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 36.26%, a decrease of 2.3% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall view on apples is "oscillating". This year, apple production is low, domestic cold - storage inventory is low, and the cumulative outbound volume is less than the same period last year. Spot prices remain stable, especially for high - quality goods, and the spot basis has strengthened compared to last week. The number of arriving trucks in the sales area has significantly decreased compared to before the festival, and fruit wholesale prices have generally declined after the festival. Among the six fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture, Ya pears have the largest decline, followed by apples, and the price ratio is still in a high - level range. Continued attention should be paid to the trading atmosphere in the sales area, the outbound situation of goods in the warehouse, and the trading situation of citrus fruits [3] Summary by Directory Price Performance - Apple futures: On February 24, AP2605 closed at 9705 yuan/ton (down 1.3% from before the festival), and AP2610 closed at 8425 yuan/ton (down 0.5% from before the festival) [8] - Apple spot prices in Shandong: In the Shandong production area, the overall shipment volume was still large during the week. The mainstream price of 75 first and second - grade fruit farmer goods in Penglai was around 2.8 - 3.6 yuan/jin (unchanged from last week), 80 first and second - grade fruit farmer goods were 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin (last week: 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin), and third - grade fruits were 1.3 - 2.5 yuan/jin (unchanged from last week). In Qixia, 80 first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmer goods were 3.2 - 4.5 yuan/jin (unchanged from last week), 75 fruit farmer general goods were 2.2 - 2.5 yuan/jin (unchanged from last week), and 65 - 70 small fruits were 1.7 - 2 yuan/jin (unchanged from last week) [7] - Apple spot prices in Shaanxi: In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the ex - warehouse price of semi - commercial fruits above 70 from fruit farmers is around 4.0 - 4.3 yuan/jin, general goods above 70 from fruit farmers are around 3.5 - 4 yuan/jin, and high - grade secondary fruits are around 2.2 yuan/jin. Prices are stable compared to last week [7] - Apple basis and monthly spread: The spot basis of the main contract was - 1705 yuan/ton (last week: - 1835 yuan/ton) [3] Supply: Production and Cold - Storage Inventory - Cold - storage inventory: As of the week of February 13, the apple cold - storage inventory in the country's major production areas was 5.88 million tons (a decrease of 320,000 tons from the previous week); Shandong had 2.1 million tons (a decrease of 90,000 tons from the previous week), and Shaanxi had 1.73 million tons (a decrease of 80,000 tons from the previous week) [15] - Planting area and production: In 2025, China's apple planting area was 1.74484 million hectares (a year - on - year increase of 0.2%), and apple production was 34.3132 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 6%) [19] Demand: Cold - Storage Outbound Volume and Substitute Situation - Apple cold - storage outbound volume: As of the week of February 13, the national apple cold - storage outbound volume was 316,500 tons (last week: 342,500 tons), and the cumulative outbound volume in the 2025/26 season was 1.9456 million tons (compared to 2.2152 million tons in the same period last year); the cold - storage outbound volume of apples in Shaanxi and Shandong was 169,000 tons (last week: 166,300 tons), and the cumulative outbound volume in the 2025/26 season was 981,600 tons (compared to 972,900 tons in the same period last year) [24] - Apple arrivals in the South China market: After the festival, the apple arrivals in the South China market decreased compared to before the festival. On February 24, 9, 5, and 7 trucks arrived at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao respectively [26] - Wholesale prices of six fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture: In the week of February 27, the wholesale price of Kyoho grapes was 12.48 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.6%), Fuji apples were 9.13 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 3.6%), bananas were 6.26 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 1.3%), Ya pears were 5.48 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 4.7%), watermelons were 6.88 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%), and pineapples were 7.35 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%) [36] - Fruit price ratio: In the week of February 27, the price ratio of apples to bananas was 1.46 (last week: 1.49), the price ratio of apples to Ya pears was 1.67 (last week: 1.65), and it was still in a high - level range. The price ratio of apples to citrus was 1.52 [39] Apple Import and Export - In 2025, China's cumulative apple imports were 116,750 tons, cumulative exports were 962,053 tons, and the net export volume was 845,300 tons (in 2024, the net export volume was 883,400 tons). China's main exported variety is Red Fuji, and the traditional export markets are Southeast Asian countries. In addition, Russia, Bangladesh, and some European countries are also important export destinations [43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The short - term apple futures price is expected to maintain high - level operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,531 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest is 137,175 hands, with an increase of 12,638 hands compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8,910 hands, a decrease of 990 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80 first - grade secondary fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change in all the prices compared to the previous period [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons. The weekly apple fruit wholesale price is 9.4 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg. The national total apple cold - storage inventory is 773.16 million tons, the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.54, an increase of 0.03, and the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.53, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, with the monthly apple export amount year - on - year growth rate at - 14.3%, and the monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1,334,364 million US dollars, a decrease of 503,616 million US dollars [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale prices of pear, banana, and watermelon are 6.71 yuan/kg, 5.37 yuan/kg, and 5.78 yuan/kg respectively. The daily average number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets in the morning is 12.2, 16, and 23.8 respectively, with no change compared to the previous period [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 17.51%, a decrease of 9.26%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.51%, a decrease of 9.27% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The trading of inventory apples in apple - producing areas is generally inactive. Merchants are making tentative purchases for market distribution, but the market sales speed is slow. The trading is somewhat stalemated, and the transaction prices change little. There is a small amount of remaining ground - sourced apples in Shandong and Shanxi, with a decline in quality, and most of the transactions are based on negotiated prices. Apples in Shandong and Shanxi are still being stored, the ground - sourced trading is gradually ending, and the trading of stored - sourced goods is limited [2]. 3.8观点总结 - In Shandong, the ground - sourced trading in the Shandong production area is coming to an end, with a small amount of apples being stored in some places like Qixia, and the storage of some Cream Fuji is also ending. In Shaanxi, the storage is basically completed, and the production area has started to transfer to outbound storage. In northern Shaanxi, most merchants distribute their self - stored goods, and there is a small amount of goods transferred through some foreign - trade channels. In southern Shaanxi, fruit farmers' goods are mainly transferred, and the transaction is better than that in northern Shaanxi. Some of the goods go to the second - and third - tier markets, and some are transferred by Shandong merchants. The performance of the sales area market is average, and attention should be paid to the substitution effect of citrus fruits on the market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The current apple inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted the apple demand, and the potential increase in the new - season apple production may restrain the price trend. In the short term, the apple price is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend. It is recommended to focus on the production situation in the future, and the operation strategy is to go long on dips while controlling risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is not specified in the table, the main contract's open interest is 7956 hands, a decrease of 1666 hands compared with the previous period; the apple warehouse receipt quantity is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 4434 hands, a decrease of 1418 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged apples above 80 grade 2, farmer - sourced) is 4 yuan per jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons compared with the previous period [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.75 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 80.6 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 10.89 yuan; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 9.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.12, a decrease of 0.01; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.05, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245562.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.63 yuan per kilogram, the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.06 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.09 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.92 yuan per kilogram; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 5.8 vehicles, a decrease of 2 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 9.2 vehicles, a decrease of 1.8 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16.6 vehicles, a decrease of 2.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 15.75%, a decrease of 0.59%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 15.75%, a decrease of 0.59% [2] Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the western production area basically ended, with a small amount of remaining goods mainly sold by merchants for their own use, and the price was stable. The market for inventory apples in the Shandong production area was weak, the trading of farmer - sourced apples was slow, and purchasers pressured prices, resulting in many transactions at discounted prices. The early - maturing apples in the western production area continued to be listed, and the transaction price of varieties such as Yuncheng smooth - skinned Gala was basically the same as last year. The apple 2510 contract rose 0.73% on Wednesday. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 80.60 million tons, a decrease of 10.89 million tons compared with the previous week, and the sales speed improved slightly compared with the previous week, showing little difference compared with the same period last year. The Shandong production area's storage capacity ratio was 12.15%, a decrease of 1.06% compared with the previous week, and the inventory reduction speed improved slightly. The Shaanxi production area's storage capacity ratio was 4.63%, a decrease of 1.09% compared with the previous week, and the sales were slightly faster than the previous week. Overall, the current inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted the apple demand, and the potential increase in the new - season apple production may restrain the price trend [2] Suggested Attention - There is no news today, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the apple production situation [2]