节后销区苹果到车减少， 水果降价 苹苹苹苹 2026.2.25 作者：魏舒婷 从业资格证号：F03149087 交易咨询证号：Z0022950 研究联系方式：weishuting@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 苹果 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 今年苹果产量偏低、国内冷库库存低，累计出库不及去年同期。现货价格维持稳定，特别是好货，现货基差较上周走强。 | | | | 销区到车量较节前明显减少，节后水果批发价普遍下降，农业部监测的六种水果中下降最多的是鸭梨、其次苹果，比价 | | | | 仍处于高位区间。后续持续关注销区成交氛围、库内货源出库情况、柑橘类水果交易情况。 | | 价格表现 | 中性 | 本周苹果盘面较节前微跌，现货方面，2月24日，栖霞一、二级80#纸袋4元/斤（与上周持平），洛川70#纸袋4.2元/斤 | | | | （与上周持平），主力合约现货基差-1705元/吨（上周-1835元/吨）。 | | 供应 | 中性偏多 | 2025年我国苹果产量 ...

Core Insights - The fruit market in Changchun, Jilin is experiencing a significant increase in customer flow and transaction volume as the Spring Festival approaches, with daily sales volume rising sharply compared to normal days [1][4]. Market Overview - The largest fruit wholesale market in Changchun spans approximately 120,000 square meters and deals in fresh fruits, dried fruits, and vegetables [3]. - The market sees an average daily traffic of about 4,000 vehicles, with around 70 trucks delivering goods each day, resulting in an annual transaction volume of nearly 200,000 tons and an annual transaction value of approximately 1.4 billion yuan [11]. Sales Performance - The demand for fruits has surged, with daily sales increasing from over 300 units to around 800-900 units as the festival approaches [6]. - High-end fruits such as cherries, durians, and mangosteens have seen a year-on-year sales increase of over 30% [15]. Logistics and Supply Chain - The efficient logistics system allows for a diverse range of fresh tropical fruits to be available in Northeast China, with direct shipments from production areas like Guangxi and Dandong [9]. - The market collaborates closely with agricultural cooperatives to streamline the supply chain, reducing costs and ensuring better quality for consumers [13]. Product Variety and Consumer Experience - The market has introduced over 20 new specialty fruit varieties, including coconuts from Hainan and "ugly" apples from Sichuan, totaling over 1,000 tons to meet consumer demand [15]. - Efforts are being made to enhance the shopping experience for consumers by optimizing the supply environment and ensuring a wide selection of fruits [17].