1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of China increasing its procurement of US soybeans has driven up the price of US soybeans. For the domestic market, on one hand, there is an increasing pressure of long - term supply. On the other hand, as the price of US soybeans rises, the import cost increases. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9][10][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: Trump stated that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. From January 22 to January 29, the US exported 440,000 tons of soybeans, with the cumulative export of 34.29 million tons this year, a year - on - year decrease of 8.27 million tons. Among them, the export to China was 230,000 tons that week, and the cumulative export to China this year was 9.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.33 million tons. StoneX estimated that the soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season would reach a record high of 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January estimate and 13 million tons more than the previous year. As of January 31, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 99.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.3 percentage points higher than the five - year average; the soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.4 percentage points lower than the five - year average. From January 23 to January 30, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The USDA predicted in January that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season would be 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December prediction and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [10] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The multi - empty scores of various indicators such as the price difference between US soybeans 3 - 5, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal were analyzed. It was expected that the price of protein meal would continue to fluctuate in the short term [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommended waiting and seeing [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price**: Provided the historical price trends of soybean meal spot in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 [21][22] - **Basis of the Main Contract**: Presented the historical basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: Showed the historical spread trends between the soybean meal May - September contracts and the rapeseed meal May - September contracts from 2205/2209 to 2605/2609 [27][28] - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Displayed the historical spread trends between the soybean meal May - rapeseed meal May contracts and the soybean meal September - rapeseed meal September contracts from 2022 to 2026 [30][31] 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Included the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [36][37][39] - **Weather Conditions**: Compared the precipitation of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina with the same period of the year and summarized the precipitation and temperature anomalies in the main soybean - producing areas as of February 4 [42][44][45] - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Showed the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes of US soybeans, the current and next - year market - year export volumes to China, and China's monthly import volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds from 2021 to 2025 [53][54][56] - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Presented the historical crushing volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [62][63] - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: Displayed the monthly export volumes and export volumes to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipping volumes to China of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from 2022 to 2026 [65][66][68] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory Situation**: Showed the historical inventory trends of soybean ports and major oil mill rapeseeds from 2022 to 2026 [76][77] - **Protein Meal Inventory Situation**: Presented the historical inventory trends of coastal major oil mill soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [79][80] - **Protein Meal Pressing Profit**: Displayed the historical pressing profit trends of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [82][83] 3.5 Demand Side - **Protein Meal Consumption**: Showed the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2022 to 2026 [86] - **Breeding Profit**: Presented the historical profit trends of self - breeding and self - raising pigs per head and white - feather broiler breeding from 2022 to 2026 [88][89]