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国信期货蛋白粕周报:美豆回吐风险溢价,连粕高位震荡反复-20260320
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 09:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, CBOT soybeans tumbled significantly, almost giving back all the premiums brought by the rise in international crude oil since March. The domestic soybean meal market was slightly stronger than the external market. The continuous soybean meal market oscillated strongly under the resonance of multiple factors, and the futures price was supported by cost - driven at the bottom and dragged down by poor downstream demand at the top. The main contract of continuous soybean meal may oscillate repeatedly around 3,050 yuan/ton. It is advisable to operate in short - term bands [6]. - In the future, in the international market, the Middle East situation is intensifying, and the enthusiasm of funds to go long on commodities remains due to the increase in shipping costs and logistics delays. If Brazilian soybeans can be exported smoothly, it will have a greater impact on US soybean exports. The upcoming US biodiesel policy may boost US soybean oil and then US soybeans. In the domestic market, attention should be paid to the shipping situation of Brazilian soybeans. The soybean meal supply may decrease and the inventory may decline, which will support the spot price. The main contract of the continuous soybean meal market will test the support level of 3,000 yuan/ton. If it falls below, the downward space will open; otherwise, the market will remain in a high - level and strong oscillation. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips [81]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Trends - This week, CBOT soybeans tumbled significantly. On Monday, the main contract of CBOT soybeans closed at the daily limit down due to the delay of the Sino - US leaders' meeting. Later, it rebounded at a low level due to the rise of international crude oil and the possible obstruction of Brazilian soybean exports. The domestic soybean meal market was slightly stronger than the external market. The continuous soybean meal market oscillated strongly under the influence of multiple factors, with the futures price supported by cost at the bottom and dragged down by poor downstream demand at the top [6]. 3.1.2 US Soybean Export Situation - As of the week of March 12, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 966,082 tons, and the total export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season reached 28,061,287 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.3%. The US soybean exports for the 2025/26 season have reached 65.5% of the annual export target. In that week, the US shipped 545,858 tons of soybeans to China, accounting for 46.8% of the total weekly export inspection volume [11]. 3.1.3 South American Market (Brazil and Argentina) - **Brazil**: In the central and northern Amazonas state, there were widespread showers, which were generally beneficial to the growth of corn and cotton. In some areas, the rainfall was limited. The soybean harvest has started, with a progress of 7%, and 65% of the corn has been harvested [20]. - **Argentina**: The western part of the country had continuous rainy weather, while the eastern part was dry. The moisture deficit in soybean fields was mainly concentrated in some areas. The sunflower harvest rate was 42%, and the corn harvest rate was 9% [21]. 3.1.4 Domestic and International Oilseed Market - **Brazil - China Negotiation**: Brazil's agriculture minister will negotiate with China on the inspection and safety requirements for Brazilian soybean exports to China after receiving complaints from Chinese buyers [33]. - **Brazilian Truck Drivers' Strike**: Brazilian truck drivers are planning a new national strike due to the sharp rise in diesel prices, which may start as early as mid - March [33]. - **US Planting Area Forecast**: In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to be 85.66 million acres, higher than 81.2 million acres in 2025; the corn planting area is expected to be 93.68 million acres, lower than 98.8 million acres in 2025 [34]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Forecast**: In March 2026, the estimated Brazilian soybean export volume is 16.32 million tons, still a 3.8% increase compared to March 2025. From January to February, China accounted for 71% of Brazil's total soybean exports [34]. - **Global Soybean Production and Trade Forecast**: The 2025/26 global soybean production will reach a record high. The IGC initially predicts that the 2026/27 global soybean production will reach a record 442 million tons, and the trade volume will increase to 190 million tons [36]. - **Brazilian Soybean Production and Processing Forecast**: ABIOVE predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean production will reach 177.85 million tons, and the soybean processing volume will be 61.5 million tons, both hitting new records [37]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: As of March 11, 2026, Argentine farmers pre - sold 7.52 million tons of 2025/26 season soybeans, and sold 44.27 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans [37]. 3.1.5 Soybean Sowing and Harvest Progress - **Argentina**: As of a certain period, the overall soybean sowing progress was 99.5%, with a 0.5% increase compared to the previous week [39]. - **Brazil**: As of a certain period, the overall soybean harvest progress was 59.2%, with an 8.6% increase compared to the previous week [41]. 3.1.6 Soybean Port Inventory and Processing Profit - The domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 8.3056 million tons at the end of this week, with a theoretical crushable days of 27 days. It is expected that the port soybean inventory will be 5.04 million tons next weekend, and the soybean arrival will be about 4.7765 million tons. The Brazilian soybean crush profit on the futures market continued to recover this week [48]. 3.1.7 Soybean Import Cost and Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - The cost of US Gulf soybeans arriving in May (with additional tariffs) is 4,569 yuan/ton, and (with normal tariffs) is 4,173 yuan/ton. The cost of Brazilian soybeans arriving in May is 3,886 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean premium continued to recover this week [51]. 3.1.8 Soybean Meal - Soybean Processing Rate and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of the 11th week (March 14), the domestic soybean processing rate increased to 57.70%, and the total soybean processing volume was 2.135 million tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 623,500 tons, a decrease of 143,500 tons compared to the previous week, and the contract volume was 4.8823 million tons, a decrease of 351,500 tons compared to the previous week [55]. 3.1.9 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Weekly Apparent Consumption - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 11th week was 1.8228 million tons, higher than 1.514 million tons in the previous week [57]. 3.1.10 Soybean Meal - Basis Analysis - This week, the domestic soybean meal spot price increased, and the soybean meal basis continued to recover [60]. 3.1.11 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed Processing Rate and Processing Volume - As of the 11th week (March 14), the domestic rapeseed processing rate increased to 7.40%, and the total rapeseed processing volume was 30,500 tons. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory was 20,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous week, and the contract volume was 76,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared to the previous week [62]. 3.1.12 Rapeseed Meal - Basis Analysis - No specific new content provided other than the basis analysis chart. 3.1.13 Arbitrage Relationship between Oil and Oilseed Varieties - This week, the oil - meal ratio of soybeans rebounded slightly, the oil - meal ratio of rapeseed main contracts oscillated and rebounded, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal main contracts continued to widen [68]. 3.1.14 Protein Meal Inter - Month Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal rose first and then fell, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal fell from a high level [72]. 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Seasonal Analysis - Seasonal analysis charts of US soybeans, US soybean meal, continuous soybean meal, and live pigs are provided, but no specific analysis content is given [75][76][78]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - **Technical Aspect**: For the main contracts, the short - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are entangled, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled [80]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: In the international market, the Middle East situation is intensifying, and the US biodiesel policy may boost US soybean oil and then US soybeans. In the domestic market, attention should be paid to the shipping of Brazilian soybeans. The soybean meal supply may decrease, and the inventory may decline, supporting the spot price. The main contract of the continuous soybean meal market will test the support level of 3,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips [81].
蛋白粕周报:美豆震荡走高,连粕大幅上行-20260313
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2026-03-13 09:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term bullish trend of the domestic rapeseed meal market continues, but as this round of price increase is mainly driven by event shocks, once the events ease, a large number of long - position profit - taking orders may emerge. Investors should be vigilant about the risk of high - level liquidation and be cautious when chasing high prices. Low - position long orders can be held with caution [6][81]. - In the international market, the focus next week will be on the new round of Sino - US consultations and the development of the Middle East situation. The continuous rise in international crude oil prices has led to an increase in US soybean oil prices, which in turn supports the upward movement of US soybeans. The market is also paying attention to new changes in US soybean exports. In the short term, CBOT soybeans will operate strongly above 1200 cents per bushel [81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis - **Market Trends**: This week, CBOT soybeans fluctuated upwards, with the main contract above 1200 cents per bushel. The continuous rise in international crude oil prices drove up the price of US soybeans. The USDA report was neutral, with an increase in US soybean crushing offset by an increase in imports, and the inventory remained at 350 million bushels. Affected by this, the main contract of Dalian rapeseed meal rose significantly. The domestic rapeseed meal spot price continued to rise, and the near - month basis was firm [6]. - **US Market - US Soybean Exports**: The US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 24% compared with the previous week but increased by about 3% compared with the same period last year. As of March 5, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 879,190 tons. The total US soybean export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season reached 27,086,903 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.6%. The US soybean exports to China (Mainland) in the week ending March 5, 2026, were 411,462 tons [11]. - **South American Market - Brazil and Argentina**: In Brazil, as of March 5, 2026, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 51%. In Argentina, recent rainfall has provided much - needed moisture for corn and soybeans in many central and northern production areas, but drought - affected areas still face crop stress, and the sunflower harvest progress has reached 39% [22][23][30]. - **Domestic and International Oilseed Markets**: Analysts expect the 2025/26 US soybean ending inventory to be lowered to 343 million bushels. The average global soybean ending inventory forecast is 125 million tons. In 2026, from January to February, China's soybean imports were 12.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. It is expected that China's soybean imports will increase significantly in the next few months [30][31]. - **Soybean - South American Soybean Sowing and Harvest Progress**: As of March 7, 2026, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 50.6%. In Argentina, the overall soybean sowing progress was close to completion [31][36][38]. - **Soybean - Port Inventory and Crushing Profit**: This week, the crush margin of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market continued to recover. As of the end of this week, the total inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 8.3357 million tons, and the theoretical crushable days of port - imported soybeans were 28 days [44]. - **Soybean - Import Cost and Domestic - Foreign Price Difference**: The cost of US Gulf soybeans arriving in May (with additional tariffs) is 4716 yuan/ton, and the cost of Brazilian soybeans arriving in May is 3940 yuan/ton. This week, the Brazilian soybean premium stopped falling and rebounded [47]. - **Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed Processing Rate and Crush Volume**: As of the end of the 10th week (March 7, 2026), the processing rate of imported rapeseed at domestic main oil mills increased compared with the previous week, but it was still at a nearly stagnant level. The domestic rapeseed processing volume was 24,500 tons this week [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal - Basis Analysis**: This week, the domestic rapeseed meal spot price rose, and the rapeseed meal basis stopped falling and rebounded [58]. - **Oilseed and Oil Product Inter - Variety Arbitrage Relationship**: This week, the oil - meal ratio of soybeans fell from a high level, the oil - meal ratio of rapeseed main contracts fell slightly, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal main contracts widened slightly [67]. - **Protein Meal Inter - Month Spread Arbitrage Relationship**: This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal rebounded significantly [72]. 3.2 Future Market Outlook - **Seasonal Analysis**: There are seasonal index charts for US soybeans, US rapeseed meal, Dalian rapeseed meal, and live pigs, but no specific analysis content is provided [75][76][78]. - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Technically, the short - term and medium - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bullish, while the long - term indicators are intertwined. Fundamentally, in the international market, the focus will be on Sino - US consultations and the Middle East situation. In the domestic market, due to the Middle East situation and Brazilian soybean quality inspection issues, the arrival of imported soybeans in April may be lower than expected, and the supply of rapeseed meal may decrease, which will boost the rapeseed meal market [80][81].
蛋白粕月报 2026/02/06:震荡筑底-20260206
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-02-06 15:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of China increasing its procurement of US soybeans has driven up the price of US soybeans. For the domestic market, on one hand, there is an increasing pressure of long - term supply. On the other hand, as the price of US soybeans rises, the import cost increases. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9][10][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: Trump stated that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. From January 22 to January 29, the US exported 440,000 tons of soybeans, with the cumulative export of 34.29 million tons this year, a year - on - year decrease of 8.27 million tons. Among them, the export to China was 230,000 tons that week, and the cumulative export to China this year was 9.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.33 million tons. StoneX estimated that the soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season would reach a record high of 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January estimate and 13 million tons more than the previous year. As of January 31, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 99.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.3 percentage points higher than the five - year average; the soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.4 percentage points lower than the five - year average. From January 23 to January 30, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The USDA predicted in January that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season would be 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December prediction and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [10] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The multi - empty scores of various indicators such as the price difference between US soybeans 3 - 5, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal were analyzed. It was expected that the price of protein meal would continue to fluctuate in the short term [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommended waiting and seeing [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price**: Provided the historical price trends of soybean meal spot in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 [21][22] - **Basis of the Main Contract**: Presented the historical basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: Showed the historical spread trends between the soybean meal May - September contracts and the rapeseed meal May - September contracts from 2205/2209 to 2605/2609 [27][28] - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Displayed the historical spread trends between the soybean meal May - rapeseed meal May contracts and the soybean meal September - rapeseed meal September contracts from 2022 to 2026 [30][31] 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Included the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [36][37][39] - **Weather Conditions**: Compared the precipitation of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina with the same period of the year and summarized the precipitation and temperature anomalies in the main soybean - producing areas as of February 4 [42][44][45] - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Showed the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes of US soybeans, the current and next - year market - year export volumes to China, and China's monthly import volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds from 2021 to 2025 [53][54][56] - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Presented the historical crushing volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [62][63] - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: Displayed the monthly export volumes and export volumes to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipping volumes to China of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from 2022 to 2026 [65][66][68] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory Situation**: Showed the historical inventory trends of soybean ports and major oil mill rapeseeds from 2022 to 2026 [76][77] - **Protein Meal Inventory Situation**: Presented the historical inventory trends of coastal major oil mill soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [79][80] - **Protein Meal Pressing Profit**: Displayed the historical pressing profit trends of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [82][83] 3.5 Demand Side - **Protein Meal Consumption**: Showed the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2022 to 2026 [86] - **Breeding Profit**: Presented the historical profit trends of self - breeding and self - raising pigs per head and white - feather broiler breeding from 2022 to 2026 [88][89]
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250731
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the protein meal market, US soybean is growing well with a higher - than - expected good rate, leading to a continuous decline in US soybean futures prices. Concerns about domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter and the strengthening of rapeseed meal prices support domestic protein meal prices [3]. - In the oil market, Malaysian palm oil production increased in July 2025, but export volume decreased. The consensus between China and the US on tariff issues has boosted the overall strength of the oil sector [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were 8240, 8982, and 9621 respectively. Their price changes were 14, 12, and 129, with price change rates of 0.17%, 0.13%, and - 3.15% respectively. For protein meals, the closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal were 3010 and 2730, with price changes of 27 and 75 and price change rates of 0.91% and 2.82% respectively. The closing price of peanuts was 8844, with a price change of 26 and a price change rate of 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: For example, the current value of Y9 - 1 spread is 52 (previous value: 38), P9 - 1 is - 4 (previous value: 2), and so on. The current M/RM09 ratio is 1.10 (previous value: 1.12) [2]. International Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4244 (Ringgit/ton), 996 (cents/bu), 56 (cents/lb), and 274 (dollars/ton) respectively. Their price changes were 14, - 12, - 1, and - 2, with price change rates of 0.33%, - 1.21%, - 1.09%, and - 0.72% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various oils and meals have different changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8410, with a price change rate of 0.72%, and the spot price of Nantong soybean meal is 2890, with a price change rate of 0.70% [2]. - **Spot Basis**: Spot basis values vary, such as 170 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and - 120 for Nantong soybean meal [2]. - **Spot Spreads**: The current value of the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 670 (same as the previous value), and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1350 (previous value: 1310) [2]. Import and Crush Profit - The current import and crush profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. are - 355, - 197, etc. respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous values [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 13,709, 0, and 3,487 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [2]. Industry Information - According to the Ministry of Commerce, China and the US have formed Geneva Consensus and London Framework in the economic and trade field, and their teams have held economic and trade talks in Stockholm [3]. - Brazil's National Supply Company predicts that the grain output in the 2024 - 2025 agricultural cycle will reach 3.396 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. From January to June this year, Brazil exported soybeans worth 1.9 billion dollars to China, accounting for 74.6% of the total soybean export value [3].
7月国际贸易消息频出,油料作物生长大致正常
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 12:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In July, there were frequent international trade news, and the growth of oilseed crops was generally normal. The soybean market was affected by US trade negotiations and domestic policies, while the rapeseed meal market was influenced by Canadian production adjustments and the resumption of Australian rapeseed imports [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review (6.30 - 7.29) - **External Market**: The November contract of US soybeans closed at 1011.25, with a decline of 1.49%; the December contract of US soybean meal closed at 279.4, with a decline of 3.12%; the July contract of ICE rapeseed closed at 723.1 CAD/ton, with an increase of 3.33% [7] - **Domestic Market**: The latest price of soybean meal 2509 was 2977, with an increase of 1.19%; the latest price of rapeseed meal 2509 was 2635, with an increase of 3.01% [7] II. Soybean Meal Market Overview 2.1 International Supply and Demand - **Trade Negotiations**: In July, the US was in a period of intensive trade negotiations. The US Treasury Secretary announced economic and trade talks with China in Sweden from July 27 - 30. The US has been negotiating "reciprocal tariffs" and multilateral trade frameworks with many countries [16] - **Crop Conditions**: As of July 27, the soybean flowering rate was 76%, the pod - setting rate was 41%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 70%. About 8% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought as of July 22 [17][18] - **Supply from South America**: Brazil's soybean supply is sufficient before September. Anec slightly lowered the estimated soybean exports in July to 12.11 million tons and raised the estimated soybean meal exports to 2.4 million tons. Argentina increased its 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 50.9 million tons [19] - **US Exports**: As of July 17, 2024/25 US soybean cumulative sales were 50.81 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.67 million tons. The 2025/26 US soybean weekly net export sales were 238,800 tons, lower than market expectations [19] 2.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Trade Talks and Policies**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden at the end of July were undecided. In July, China lowered the import tariff on US soybeans back to 3%. August is a crucial month for US soybean production and exports to China [25] - **Price and Import**: On July 24, domestic soybean meal prices plummeted due to multiple factors. China's soybean imports in June reached a record high of 12.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. In the first six months of 2025, China's cumulative imports of Brazilian soybeans decreased by 7.5% year - on - year, while imports of US soybeans increased by 33% [25][26][27] III. Rapeseed Meal Market Overview 3.1 International Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Canadian Supply**: In July, the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture adjusted its 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 17.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.2% from the previous year. Exports are expected to be 6 million tons, a decrease of 36.8% from the previous year [35] - **Australian Supply**: Around July 18, Australia and China were close to reaching an agreement to allow Australia to export 15 - 25 tons of experimental rapeseed to China, restarting the trade after a 5 - year hiatus [38] - **Global Forecast**: The USDA's WASDE report in July estimated the global rapeseed production in 2025/26 to be 89.54 million tons [38] 3.2 Domestic Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Inventory and Price**: As of July 25, the basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was - 155 yuan/ton. The 2509 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was about 350 yuan/ton, and the 2601 spread was about 650 yuan/ton, returning to a reasonable level [51] - **Policy and Trade**: Since 2024, Sino - Canadian trade frictions have affected the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. In June 2025, China allowed the import of Uruguayan soybean meal and rapeseed meal [51][53]
国产菜籽即将集中上市 预计菜籽粕或将继续走低
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-04-29 08:18
Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Huawen Futures indicates that rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue declining due to increased supply pressure from the upcoming domestic rapeseed harvest and a significant drop in soybean meal prices [2] - Baicheng Futures notes that the short-term volatility in rapeseed meal prices is not yet over, influenced by fluctuations in the soybean market and stable operating rates at domestic crushing plants [3] - Zhonghui Futures advises caution in pursuing long positions ahead of the holiday, as domestic rapeseed inventory is significantly higher than in the same period over the past two years, and new season rapeseed is about to be harvested [4] Group 2 - The market anticipates a faster customs inspection process, leading to a substantial decline in spot soybean meal prices, which in turn affects the rapeseed meal futures market [2] - The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to recover significantly in May, with downstream stocking needs being a key focus for the market [3] - The price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has recently widened to over 900 yuan per ton, indicating a decrease in the substitutability of rapeseed meal [4]