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申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250731
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the protein meal market, US soybean is growing well with a higher - than - expected good rate, leading to a continuous decline in US soybean futures prices. Concerns about domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter and the strengthening of rapeseed meal prices support domestic protein meal prices [3]. - In the oil market, Malaysian palm oil production increased in July 2025, but export volume decreased. The consensus between China and the US on tariff issues has boosted the overall strength of the oil sector [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were 8240, 8982, and 9621 respectively. Their price changes were 14, 12, and 129, with price change rates of 0.17%, 0.13%, and - 3.15% respectively. For protein meals, the closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal were 3010 and 2730, with price changes of 27 and 75 and price change rates of 0.91% and 2.82% respectively. The closing price of peanuts was 8844, with a price change of 26 and a price change rate of 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: For example, the current value of Y9 - 1 spread is 52 (previous value: 38), P9 - 1 is - 4 (previous value: 2), and so on. The current M/RM09 ratio is 1.10 (previous value: 1.12) [2]. International Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4244 (Ringgit/ton), 996 (cents/bu), 56 (cents/lb), and 274 (dollars/ton) respectively. Their price changes were 14, - 12, - 1, and - 2, with price change rates of 0.33%, - 1.21%, - 1.09%, and - 0.72% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various oils and meals have different changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8410, with a price change rate of 0.72%, and the spot price of Nantong soybean meal is 2890, with a price change rate of 0.70% [2]. - **Spot Basis**: Spot basis values vary, such as 170 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and - 120 for Nantong soybean meal [2]. - **Spot Spreads**: The current value of the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 670 (same as the previous value), and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1350 (previous value: 1310) [2]. Import and Crush Profit - The current import and crush profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. are - 355, - 197, etc. respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous values [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 13,709, 0, and 3,487 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [2]. Industry Information - According to the Ministry of Commerce, China and the US have formed Geneva Consensus and London Framework in the economic and trade field, and their teams have held economic and trade talks in Stockholm [3]. - Brazil's National Supply Company predicts that the grain output in the 2024 - 2025 agricultural cycle will reach 3.396 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. From January to June this year, Brazil exported soybeans worth 1.9 billion dollars to China, accounting for 74.6% of the total soybean export value [3].
7月国际贸易消息频出,油料作物生长大致正常
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 12:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In July, there were frequent international trade news, and the growth of oilseed crops was generally normal. The soybean market was affected by US trade negotiations and domestic policies, while the rapeseed meal market was influenced by Canadian production adjustments and the resumption of Australian rapeseed imports [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review (6.30 - 7.29) - **External Market**: The November contract of US soybeans closed at 1011.25, with a decline of 1.49%; the December contract of US soybean meal closed at 279.4, with a decline of 3.12%; the July contract of ICE rapeseed closed at 723.1 CAD/ton, with an increase of 3.33% [7] - **Domestic Market**: The latest price of soybean meal 2509 was 2977, with an increase of 1.19%; the latest price of rapeseed meal 2509 was 2635, with an increase of 3.01% [7] II. Soybean Meal Market Overview 2.1 International Supply and Demand - **Trade Negotiations**: In July, the US was in a period of intensive trade negotiations. The US Treasury Secretary announced economic and trade talks with China in Sweden from July 27 - 30. The US has been negotiating "reciprocal tariffs" and multilateral trade frameworks with many countries [16] - **Crop Conditions**: As of July 27, the soybean flowering rate was 76%, the pod - setting rate was 41%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 70%. About 8% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought as of July 22 [17][18] - **Supply from South America**: Brazil's soybean supply is sufficient before September. Anec slightly lowered the estimated soybean exports in July to 12.11 million tons and raised the estimated soybean meal exports to 2.4 million tons. Argentina increased its 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 50.9 million tons [19] - **US Exports**: As of July 17, 2024/25 US soybean cumulative sales were 50.81 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.67 million tons. The 2025/26 US soybean weekly net export sales were 238,800 tons, lower than market expectations [19] 2.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Trade Talks and Policies**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden at the end of July were undecided. In July, China lowered the import tariff on US soybeans back to 3%. August is a crucial month for US soybean production and exports to China [25] - **Price and Import**: On July 24, domestic soybean meal prices plummeted due to multiple factors. China's soybean imports in June reached a record high of 12.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. In the first six months of 2025, China's cumulative imports of Brazilian soybeans decreased by 7.5% year - on - year, while imports of US soybeans increased by 33% [25][26][27] III. Rapeseed Meal Market Overview 3.1 International Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Canadian Supply**: In July, the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture adjusted its 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 17.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.2% from the previous year. Exports are expected to be 6 million tons, a decrease of 36.8% from the previous year [35] - **Australian Supply**: Around July 18, Australia and China were close to reaching an agreement to allow Australia to export 15 - 25 tons of experimental rapeseed to China, restarting the trade after a 5 - year hiatus [38] - **Global Forecast**: The USDA's WASDE report in July estimated the global rapeseed production in 2025/26 to be 89.54 million tons [38] 3.2 Domestic Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Inventory and Price**: As of July 25, the basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was - 155 yuan/ton. The 2509 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was about 350 yuan/ton, and the 2601 spread was about 650 yuan/ton, returning to a reasonable level [51] - **Policy and Trade**: Since 2024, Sino - Canadian trade frictions have affected the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. In June 2025, China allowed the import of Uruguayan soybean meal and rapeseed meal [51][53]
国产菜籽即将集中上市 预计菜籽粕或将继续走低
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-04-29 08:18
Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Huawen Futures indicates that rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue declining due to increased supply pressure from the upcoming domestic rapeseed harvest and a significant drop in soybean meal prices [2] - Baicheng Futures notes that the short-term volatility in rapeseed meal prices is not yet over, influenced by fluctuations in the soybean market and stable operating rates at domestic crushing plants [3] - Zhonghui Futures advises caution in pursuing long positions ahead of the holiday, as domestic rapeseed inventory is significantly higher than in the same period over the past two years, and new season rapeseed is about to be harvested [4] Group 2 - The market anticipates a faster customs inspection process, leading to a substantial decline in spot soybean meal prices, which in turn affects the rapeseed meal futures market [2] - The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to recover significantly in May, with downstream stocking needs being a key focus for the market [3] - The price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has recently widened to over 900 yuan per ton, indicating a decrease in the substitutability of rapeseed meal [4]