Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The pricing of new international rapeseed crops in the 2025/26 season is expected to be lower than that of the old crops in the 2024/25 season. - In China, the inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are expected to decline in Q3 2025, and the supply is theoretically expected to improve in Q4. - It is recommended to focus on the long - short spread opportunities of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in Q3, and consider short - side allocation of rapeseed products in the oilseeds and oils sector in Q4 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 H1 Review of Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil Futures - Rapeseed meal: Its trend was basically consistent with that of soybean meal. Supply concerns made rapeseed meal futures stronger than soybean meal futures at certain stages. In H1 2025, it first rose due to factors like downstream pre - holiday stocking and supply concerns, and then fell due to the pressure of large soybean arrivals after April [6]. - Rapeseed oil: In the first stage (January - early March 2025), it was bearish due to expected sufficient supply. In the second stage (early March - June 2025), it became a bullish position in the three major oils due to supply tightening expectations [7][8]. 2. Analysis of Main Supply - Demand Contradictions of Rapeseed Products 2.1 Global Rapeseed: Production Expected to Recover, but Limited Increase in Effective Supply of Major Exporters and Unoptimistic International Trade Demand - The global production of rapeseed and sunflower seeds in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase significantly. However, the effective supply of rapeseed from major exporters may have a limited year - on - year increase. The international trade demand for rapeseed products is not optimistic due to factors such as the recovery of EU production, China's uncertain import policy for Canadian rapeseed products, and the uncertain US biodiesel policy [10][17]. 2.2 EU Rapeseed: Supply to Recover Significantly, Expected Reduction in Import Demand - The production of rapeseed and sunflower seeds in the EU in the 2025/26 season is expected to recover significantly. The increase in planting area offsets the impact of less - than - ideal yields. The EU's import demand for rapeseed is expected to decrease as local production recovers [18][20]. 2.3 Canadian Rapeseed: Awaiting Yield Determination, Unoptimistic Demand Outlook - The planting area and yield of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season are difficult to determine currently. The demand for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed oil exports is expected to weaken due to China's policy changes, the EU's reduced import demand, and the uncertain US biodiesel policy [28][45]. 2.4 China's Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil Supply - Demand: High Uncertainty in H2 Supply, Expected Inventory Decline in Q3 - The supply of imported rapeseed in H2 2025 may be tight first and then loosen. The consumption of rapeseed oil is not expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to decline in Q3. The price and consumption of rapeseed meal are affected by soybean meal, and the inventory is also expected to decline in Q3 [46][52]. 3. Summary of Main Contradictions of Rapeseed and Strategy Outlook - International rapeseed products: In 6 - 8 months, prices may be supported. After new crops are listed, prices will face downward pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. - China's rapeseed products: The supply situation in H2 2025, especially Q4, is unclear. Inventories are expected to decline in Q3, and supply may increase in Q4, but it depends on Sino - Canadian relations and imports from non - Canadian regions. - It is recommended to focus on long - short spread opportunities in Q3 and short - side allocation opportunities in Q4 [54][56].