Core Viewpoint - A significant industry reshuffle is occurring in the polysilicon sector, driven by new energy consumption standards that will force inefficient producers out of the market [1][5]. Group 1: New Energy Consumption Standards - The National Standardization Administration has released draft standards for polysilicon and silicon products, setting strict energy consumption limits [1]. - The new standards require polysilicon production to meet a maximum energy consumption of 6.4 kgce/kg, with a target of 5.5 kgce/kg for compliance, significantly tightening previous limits [1][2]. - Non-compliant companies will face mandatory rectification periods, with potential shutdowns for those failing to meet the new standards [2][4]. Group 2: Impact on Industry Capacity - Following the implementation of the new standards, domestic polysilicon effective capacity is expected to decrease to approximately 2.4 million tons per year, a reduction of 16.4% from 2024 projections [2]. - The new standards could lead to the shutdown of over 30% of existing industry capacity, alleviating the current overcapacity situation [2][4]. - Most of the current excess capacity is already inactive, and the 12-month transition period will have minimal short-term supply impact [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Leading companies like GCL-Poly and Tongwei are expected to benefit from the new standards due to their technological advantages [3][5]. - GCL-Poly's granular silicon energy consumption meets the new first-level standard, while Tongwei's energy consumption is close to the second-level standard [3]. - The tightening of energy consumption standards is seen as a measure to combat the "involution" in the industry, promoting quality over quantity [4][5]. Group 4: Policy and Industry Response - The government and industry associations are implementing a comprehensive governance system addressing energy consumption, pricing, and capacity [5]. - A voluntary production control agreement has been signed by leading photovoltaic glass companies to collectively reduce production by 30% [5]. - The new energy consumption standards are viewed as a clear survival line for polysilicon companies, with a critical choice for those lagging behind to either invest in upgrades or exit the market [5].