1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply of polysilicon is difficult to increase significantly due to high - level energy consumption standards and new capacity access thresholds, while demand is weakening as terminal demand is soft and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists. However, the market is affected by news, and polysilicon is expected to show a high - level oscillation. Today, polysilicon has a narrow - range oscillation, with technical indicators showing signs of turning bullish, and short - term bullish performance is expected. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 51,365 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main position is 105,474 lots, down 5,713 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,395 yuan, down 40 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 42,310 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,500 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the basis is 1,120 yuan/ton, down 1,270 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, up 0.09 US dollars; the average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,055 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the spot price is 9,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly output is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69,857,000 kilowatts, up 3,475,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 149,022,600 pieces, up 38,589,980 pieces; the monthly import volume is 21,440,290 pieces, up 6,914,640 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.25 US dollars/piece, down 0.05 US dollars; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 30.34, up 0.62 [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 16, the Standardization Administration of China issued solicitation drafts for three national standards, setting an energy - consumption red line for polysilicon production enterprises. There have been several polysilicon - related events, including the annual conference of the Silicon Industry Branch discussing energy - consumption standards and past market conditions, the monthly regular meeting of the Photovoltaic Industry Association discussing the purchase - storage policy and production/ sales restrictions [2]

Core Viewpoint - A significant industry reshuffle is occurring in the polysilicon sector, driven by new energy consumption standards that will force inefficient producers out of the market [1][5]. Group 1: New Energy Consumption Standards - The National Standardization Administration has released draft standards for polysilicon and silicon products, setting strict energy consumption limits [1]. - The new standards require polysilicon production to meet a maximum energy consumption of 6.4 kgce/kg, with a target of 5.5 kgce/kg for compliance, significantly tightening previous limits [1][2]. - Non-compliant companies will face mandatory rectification periods, with potential shutdowns for those failing to meet the new standards [2][4]. Group 2: Impact on Industry Capacity - Following the implementation of the new standards, domestic polysilicon effective capacity is expected to decrease to approximately 2.4 million tons per year, a reduction of 16.4% from 2024 projections [2]. - The new standards could lead to the shutdown of over 30% of existing industry capacity, alleviating the current overcapacity situation [2][4]. - Most of the current excess capacity is already inactive, and the 12-month transition period will have minimal short-term supply impact [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Leading companies like GCL-Poly and Tongwei are expected to benefit from the new standards due to their technological advantages [3][5]. - GCL-Poly's granular silicon energy consumption meets the new first-level standard, while Tongwei's energy consumption is close to the second-level standard [3]. - The tightening of energy consumption standards is seen as a measure to combat the "involution" in the industry, promoting quality over quantity [4][5]. Group 4: Policy and Industry Response - The government and industry associations are implementing a comprehensive governance system addressing energy consumption, pricing, and capacity [5]. - A voluntary production control agreement has been signed by leading photovoltaic glass companies to collectively reduce production by 30% [5]. - The new energy consumption standards are viewed as a clear survival line for polysilicon companies, with a critical choice for those lagging behind to either invest in upgrades or exit the market [5].

Core Viewpoint - A significant industry reshuffle is occurring in the polysilicon sector, driven by new energy consumption standards that favor technologically advanced companies while pushing outdated capacities out of the market [2][8]. Group 1: New Energy Consumption Standards - The National Standardization Administration has released draft standards for polysilicon and silicon products, establishing strict energy consumption limits [2]. - The new standards set the energy consumption limits for polysilicon at 6.4 kgce/kg, with a requirement to reduce to 5.5 kgce/kg for compliance, significantly tightening previous limits [2][4]. - The new standards will lead to the closure of companies that fail to meet the revised energy consumption benchmarks within a specified timeframe [4][6]. Group 2: Impact on Industry Capacity - Following the implementation of the new standards, the effective domestic polysilicon production capacity is expected to decrease to approximately 2.4 million tons per year, a reduction of 16.4% compared to the end of 2024 [4]. - The new standards could result in the shutdown of over 30% of the industry’s capacity, significantly alleviating the current overcapacity situation [4][7]. - Despite the reduction, the remaining capacity will still exceed the projected demand of 1.5 million tons by 2026 by about 60% [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Leading companies like GCL-Poly and Tongwei are expected to maintain a competitive edge due to their compliance with the new energy standards [5][8]. - GCL-Poly's granular silicon energy consumption meets the new first-level standard, while Tongwei's energy consumption is close to the second-level standard, positioning them favorably in the market [5][8]. - The new standards are anticipated to enhance the "head effect" in the photovoltaic industry, favoring companies that can adapt and innovate [5][7]. Group 4: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The new energy standards represent a significant challenge for many polysilicon producers, necessitating substantial investments in technology upgrades to remain competitive [6][8]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards higher quality requirements, which may lead to increased costs for companies unable to adapt quickly [6][7]. - The implementation of these standards is part of a broader strategy to improve profitability across the photovoltaic supply chain, with various measures being taken to stabilize the market [7].