蛋价上行空间有限

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农林牧渔行业点评报告:进口扰动及需求好转驱动鸡肉价格上行,蛋鸡产能偏高或压制蛋价上行空间
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-22 03:40
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The upward trend in chicken prices is driven by import disruptions and improved demand, while high egg-laying hen capacity may limit the upward potential of egg prices [4][14] - The white feather chicken price increased in August due to supply constraints and demand from back-to-school stocking, with an average selling price of 7.17 yuan/kg, up 0.64 yuan/kg month-on-month [4][14] - The yellow feather chicken price also rose in August, reaching an average of 12.39 yuan/kg, a month-on-month increase of 19.57%, supported by seasonal demand [5][27] - Egg supply pressure remains high, with the average wholesale price of eggs at 6.22 yuan/kg, up 2.30% month-on-month, but the capacity of laying hens continues to limit price increases [36] Summary by Sections White Feather Chicken - In August, the average selling price was 7.17 yuan/kg, with a profit of 0.86 yuan/chicken, marking a recovery from losses [4][14] - The total stock of white feather breeding chickens was 2.1421 million sets, up 2.6% month-on-month [15] Yellow Feather Chicken - The average selling price in August was 12.39 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 19.57% [5][27] - The total stock of yellow feather breeding chickens was 2.8539 million sets, up 2.11% month-on-month [27] Egg Production - The average price of egg chicks was 3.00 yuan/chick, down 22.08% month-on-month, while the total stock of laying hens reached 1.317 billion, up 1.93% month-on-month [36] Company Performance - Yisheng shares sold 57.9185 million chicks in August, with a selling price of 3.69 yuan/chick, up 1.93% month-on-month [39] - Wen's shares sold 117 million chickens in August, with a revenue of 2.956 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 27.63% [58] - Lihua shares sold 52.5549 million chickens, with a revenue of 1.32 billion yuan, also showing a month-on-month increase of 27.66% [59]