研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635726 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 行业 鸡蛋月报 日期 2026 年 3 月 2 日 补栏回暖 鸡蛋仍将磨底 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 月度报告 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃summary＃ 供给端，目前在产蛋鸡存栏较去年高点已经有所下滑，但近期存在反 复，根据卓创资讯，截至 2 月末，全国在产蛋鸡月度存栏量约 13.5 亿 ...

商务大数据显示，春节假期，流通环节鸡蛋库存偏高，禽肉市场供需平稳，2月16日至22日，全国36个 大中城市鸡蛋零售价格环比下降0.3%、白条鸡零售价格环比基本持平。西部地区鸡蛋价格降幅明显， 其中贵阳、重庆、呼和浩特分别下降8.5%、0.7%和0.2%，中部地区白条鸡价格降幅居前，其中郑州、 合肥分别下降2.9%和1.3%。 ...

中化新网讯 近日，印尼主权财富基金丹纳塔拉首席执行官罗桑·勒斯拉尼宣布，该基金启动总投资70亿 美元的6个自然资源加工项目，其中包括印尼国油公司的绿色能源炼油项目。其余项目涵盖氧化铝与铝 冶炼厂、乙醇工厂、棕榈油调和航空燃料厂及综合禽畜养殖设施。 这些项目是印尼政府今年规划的18个自然资源加工优先项目的一部分，该批项目总投资达618万亿印尼 盾。勒斯拉尼表示，印尼强调加快推进能直接惠及民生的下游产业项目。印尼国油公司称，该公司位于 中爪哇省芝拉扎的炼油厂以废食用油生产航空燃料，目前日产量3000桶，预计将提升至6000桶。该公司 还与国有种植企业合作，在东爪哇建设生物乙醇厂，年产能30000千升。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the good profit performance, the market enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg prices weakening the overall capacity reduction, it is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3778, down 12 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3429, down 41; JD09 closed at 3819, down 40 [2]. - **Cross - Month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread closed at 349, up 29; the 05 - 09 spread closed at - 390, down 1; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 41, down 28 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.64, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.28, unchanged; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.47, down 0.03; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.23, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.62, down 0.03; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.32, down 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.42 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.52 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price remained stable, with prices in most regions showing little change [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 4.43 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. Most regional prices were stable, with only a few areas showing price changes [2][4][5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Cost and Price Changes**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.43 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - chicken vaccines remained stable at 3 yuan. The average price of corn was 2375 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3164 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan/jin, unchanged [2]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit per feather was - 4.51 yuan, down 16.73 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price and Market Conditions**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.42 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.52 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price was stable, and the egg price continued to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected [4]. - **Chick Hatch Volume**: In January, the monthly hatch volume of chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuo Chuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change [4]. - **Culled Chicken Data**: In the week of February 12, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was 13.17 million, a decrease of 20% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6 was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of February 12, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 6390 tons, a decrease of 12% from the previous week, at a low level in the same period over the years [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of February 12, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.12 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 12, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 13.12 yuan/feather, the same as the previous week. The weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.24 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week; the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.26 days, the same as the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic - Due to good previous profit performance, the market enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg prices weakening the overall capacity reduction, it is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Strategy**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing premiumization of eggs in a cautious consumer environment, where eggs are no longer just categorized by size or origin but are now labeled with various functional tags that significantly affect their pricing [1][2]. Group 1: Functional Origins - The differences in functional eggs primarily stem from what the chickens are fed and how they are raised, rather than changes in the chicken breeds themselves [3][4]. - Popular functions focus on nutritional enhancement, such as selenium-enriched, DHA, and lutein eggs, which are achieved through specific feed ingredients [4][6]. - The production of functional eggs involves complex supply chains, with varying levels of cost and technical barriers associated with each function [8][12]. Group 2: Cost Implications - The cost of functional eggs begins with feed formulation, which is a significant determinant of pricing, especially for enriched eggs [9][11]. - For selenium-enriched eggs, the additional cost ranges from a few cents to a dime per egg, while DHA-enriched eggs can add up to several dimes or close to a yuan [11]. - The production of antibiotic-free and ready-to-eat eggs requires higher standards in farming and processing, leading to increased operational costs throughout the production cycle [12][14]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The rise of functional eggs is linked to a growing health narrative among consumers, who prioritize safety and traceability in their food choices [15][16]. - Eggs are positioned as a staple food with low substitution costs, making it easier for consumers to accept slight price increases for perceived health benefits [18][19]. - The demand for functional eggs does not necessarily stem from increased purchase frequency but rather from consumers opting for higher-priced options within existing purchasing habits [19][21]. Group 4: Industry Dynamics - Leading poultry companies view functional eggs not merely as a response to market demand but as an extension of their existing production capabilities [21][23]. - In the restaurant sector, the use of eggs differs significantly from household consumption, with a focus on stability and risk management rather than long-term health benefits [24]. - The regulatory landscape surrounding functional eggs is evolving, with a need for clearer standards to differentiate between various claims and ensure consumer safety [26][29].

Core Viewpoint - Yike Food (301116) is focused on establishing a comprehensive support system centered around breeding, which includes six components: breeding, chick supply, feed, animal health, processing, and technology and services, to meet customer needs and ensure stable quality, optimal costs, and food safety in raw material delivery [1] Group 1 - The company aims to reduce intermediate trading links through "chain supplementation and strengthening," thereby enhancing structural efficiency and creating greater value within the industry chain [1]

Group 1 - The company expects a negative net profit for the fiscal year 2025, which spans from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [1] - The performance forecast has not been audited by a registered accounting firm, but preliminary discussions indicate no significant discrepancies between the company and the accounting firm regarding this forecast [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in gross profit margin is attributed to multiple factors, including market price fluctuations and asset impairment, which led to the recognition of corresponding asset impairment provisions [2] - The company's associate, Heze Yihua Poultry Co., Ltd., experienced a significant drop in investment income due to a substantial decrease in chick prices compared to the previous year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Chunxue Food Group Co., Ltd., anticipates a significant increase in its annual performance for 2025, projecting a net profit increase of over 340% compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be between 36 million to 43 million yuan for the year 2025, representing an increase of 27.83 million to 34.83 million yuan compared to the previous year, which is a year-on-year increase of 340.90% to 426.63% [2][3]. - The forecasted net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is expected to be between 32 million to 38.4 million yuan, an increase of 28.83 million to 35.22 million yuan compared to the previous year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 909.40% to 1,111.28% [2][3]. Group 2: Previous Year’s Performance - In the previous year, the total profit was 20.72 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 8.1652 million yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of 3.1702 million yuan [4]. - The earnings per share for the previous year were 0.04 yuan [5]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Increase - The company has intensified market development efforts, resulting in a year-on-year increase in sales of its conditioning products, with significant growth in export sales due to further expansion in overseas markets [6]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures have shown significant results, with lower breeding costs achieved through procurement savings and enhanced breeding effectiveness, alongside a notable decrease in the procurement prices of key raw materials (chickens and soybean meal) compared to the previous year [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Pre - holiday inventory accumulation falling short of expectations, the late Spring Festival and other supply - demand mismatch factors led to an unexpected increase in egg spot prices during the pre - holiday stocking period. The near - term contracts on the futures market followed the increase rationally. However, after the egg - farming industry returned to profitability, the market's inventory accumulation sentiment has clearly emerged. It is highly likely that the supply - side pressure will be postponed, which may keep the egg prices under pressure in the first half of the year after the Spring Festival. Considering the limited decline in the current inventory and the uncertainty of future capacity reduction, under the assumption of low and relatively stable cost, the post - holiday near - term contracts are more likely to be anchored to the cost. For the far - end contracts, due to the expectation of recovery in chicken replenishment, it is difficult to achieve excess profits. Currently, the premiums of each futures contract are still relatively high. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [2][17]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Pre - holiday Stocking Period: Spot Prices Rose More than Expected - Since New Year's Day, stimulated by pre - holiday stocking sentiment, egg spot prices have been rising continuously, with the increase approaching that of the peak season in the first half of September. As of late January, the price in Hebei Guantao, an external - sales production area, was above 3.6 yuan per catty, a nearly 30% increase from the low point at the beginning of the month. In Henan, an internal - sales production area, the spot price has exceeded 4 yuan per catty. As a result, the egg - farming industry returned to profitability after 3 months [4]. - The abnormal rise in egg prices was driven by several factors: a. The production capacity decreased month - on - month. The inventory scale peaked and declined in September last year. The number of newly - hatched chickens since July last year decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The number of slaughtered laying hens increased significantly, and the average age of hens dropped below 490 days. The proportion of small eggs dropped to 13.81%, significantly lower than the peak of 18.86% last year, while the proportion of large eggs rose to 42.81% [5]. b. The late Spring Festival led to a delay in demand, and the hoarding sentiment boosted the price increase. Due to the late Spring Festival and insufficient early - stage inventory accumulation, there was an unexpected price increase, and local hoarding speculation further amplified the short - term increase. c. The continuously strong prices of substitutes such as vegetables and pork also supported the rise in egg prices. Since January, short - sellers in the futures market have covered their positions to repair the basis, and the near - term contracts have been particularly strong, but still more restrained compared to the spot market [5]. 3.2 Market Inventory Accumulation Sentiment Emerged - The unexpected price increase brought the egg - farming industry back to the profit range. The current high spot valuation and high premium of the far - end futures contracts on the market reflect the market sentiment. However, the inventory is still high and the age structure of hens is young, and there is still uncertainty in the supply - side rhythm. If the market's optimistic expectations are over - advanced, the expected capacity reduction may slow down or even stop. Currently, signs of inventory accumulation sentiment have emerged [10]. - a. The age of slaughtered hens has risen counter - seasonally from 484 days to 490 days, and the number of slaughtered hens has decreased, indicating an increase in the sentiment of delaying hen slaughter. Considering the young age structure of hens, molting during the festival and a new peak in egg - laying after the festival are common practices, which will increase the post - festival supply pressure [10]. b. The sentiment of replenishing chicken chicks and young hens has emerged. The prices of chicken chicks and egg - laying chicks have risen for 4 consecutive weeks. In December, the number of replenished chickens stopped falling and increased. Xiaoming Co., Ltd.'s chicken chick sales and prices increased by 8.3% and 19.6% respectively in December, and the utilization rate of breeding eggs at sample points has risen from 57% at the beginning of the year to 68% currently, indicating that the market's replenishment sentiment is on the rise [13]. 3.3 Post - festival and Longer - term Egg Prices will be Anchored to the Cost - The market is closely watching the changes in inventory. However, inventory changes are uncertain and will be dynamically adjusted based on current and future expected profits. As long as there is an expectation of profit, the reduced production capacity can be quickly replenished through increased replenishment or delayed hen slaughter. The key factor is the change in the cost. As long as the cost remains at the current low level and there is a profit in expectation or reality, it is difficult to achieve future capacity reduction [16]. - In the short - term, although the spot price increased more than expected during the pre - holiday stocking period, during the festival, demand will disappear while supply remains the same, so inventory accumulation is inevitable. Except in extremely short - supply years, egg prices will almost always fall below the cost line. In the long - term, with the upcoming spring chick - replenishing season, considering the low cost, high expectations, and a 4 - 5 - month egg - laying period after hatching, it is not necessary or inevitable for the production capacity to continue to decline. Under the condition of low cost, it is difficult to achieve excess profits in the far - end contracts [16].

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: Good Demand Performance, Egg Prices Stable with a Slight Increase [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided text Core Viewpoints - The egg market is influenced by multiple factors including supply, demand, cost, and price trends. The current price increase is mainly due to pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, but the price increase of the 03 futures contract is expected to be limited. It is recommended to consider building long positions in the far - month 5 - contract on dips, and to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading [17] Summary by Directory Part 1: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.7 yuan/jin, up 0.5 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.95 yuan/jin, up 0.55 yuan/jin from last Friday. The national egg market continued to rise driven by Spring Festival stocking. The price increase strengthened farmers' reluctance to sell and pressure on inventory, but weak downstream demand limited the price increase space. After reaching a high, the price in the producing areas stabilized with narrow - range adjustments [5] 2. Supply Analysis - Affected by pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the egg price rose rapidly, and the market's bullish expectation increased. The shipment volume in the producing areas increased significantly. According to Zhuochuang data, the slaughter volume of laying hens in the main producing areas in the week of January 23 was 16.27 million, a 5% decrease from the previous week, and the average slaughter age was 490 days, 5 days more than the previous week. In December, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly hatching volume of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [10] 3. Cost Analysis - The feed cost changed little during the week. As of January 22, the corn price was around 2370 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3180 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2613 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.87 yuan/jin for eggs. The futures price increase at the beginning of the week drove up the corn price in the northern port and Northeast producing areas. The corn price in North China continued to fluctuate, and the price in the selling areas rose slightly. As of January 15, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.44 yuan/jin, up 0.31 yuan/jin from the previous week. On January 16, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 13.63 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.51 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - At the beginning of the week, the Spring Festival stocking led to a concentrated release of demand, and the sales volume in the selling areas increased steadily. In the middle and late weeks, the sales growth slowed down. The overall demand was good during the week, and the sales volume in the selling areas increased month - on - month. As of the week of January 23, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative selling areas was 7210 tons, a 2.3% decrease from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. Due to the continuous increase in egg prices, farmers' losses decreased, and they mostly sold their goods to lock in profits. With the approach of the Spring Festival, the demand from multiple channels increased, and the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased significantly and was currently at a low level. As of the week of January 23, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week. The vegetable price index and pork price rebounded slightly [16] 5. Trading Strategies - Trading logic: Considering the approaching Spring Festival, the overall sales are fast, and the spot price has risen significantly. The current egg production is starting to reduce capacity, and it is expected that the capacity will continue to decline in the next few months. However, the 03 contract is a post - Spring Festival contract, and the upward space is expected to be limited. - Unilateral trading: Consider building long positions in the far - month 5 - contract on dips. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines. - Options: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [17] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Laying Hen Farming Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the provided text, only mentions the slaughter age of laying hens and the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas [21] 2. Spread and Basis - The text provides data on the basis and spreads of different contracts such as the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts in different years, but no specific analysis is given [24][25][28]