目录 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 GALAXYFUTURES 鸡蛋周报：需求有所改善 蛋价略有回升 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 87/87/87 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价3.2元/斤，较上周五上涨0.3元/斤，主销区均价3.4元/斤，较上周五上涨0.3元/斤。本周鸡蛋价格有所上涨，贸易环 ...

联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货价格低位上涨 提振期价同步收涨 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋震荡收涨，2603合约收盘价为3040元/500千克，较前一周+89元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：养殖端持续亏损使得补栏积极性下滑且老鸡淘汰量有所增加，蛋鸡存栏继续高位回落， 市场氛围略有好转。且现阶段养殖端补栏积极性仍低于上年同期，利好远期价格。不过，当前蛋 鸡在产存栏仍然处于高位，且近来蛋价小幅回升，使得老鸡淘汰积极性略有放缓，高产能仍然牵 制近月市场价格表现。总体而言，市场博弈于弱现实与强预期之间。短期近月合约或处于低位宽 幅震荡状态,远月在产能下滑预期下，表现有望好于近月，可轻仓试多远月。 「 期现市场情况」 期价走势及前二十名持仓 图1、大商所鸡蛋主力合约期货价格走 ...

商务大数据显示，禽产品市场供给充足，12月15日至21日，全国36个大中城市鸡蛋、白条鸡零售价格环 比分别下降0.5%和0.2%。中部地区鸡蛋价格降幅明显，其中郑州、合肥、南昌分别下降4.2%、3.4%和 0.5%，西部地区白条鸡价格降幅居前，其中银川、成都、重庆分别下降3.0%、0.8%和0.4%。 ...

商务大数据显示，鸡蛋市场需求持续好转，鸡肉市场供给充足，12月8日至14日，全国36个大中城市鸡 蛋零售价格环比上涨0.1%，白条鸡零售价格环比下降0.1%。中部地区鸡蛋价格涨幅居前，其中合肥、 郑州、南昌分别上涨3.3%、0.7%和0.2%，东部地区白条鸡价格降幅明显，其中天津、上海、青岛分别 下降8.9%、3.1%和1.2%。 ...

展望 2026 年，鸡蛋市场已具备周期反转基础，但路径将充满反复 与不确定性。行情演变将高度依赖于产能去化的实际节奏，以及产 业各环节在持续亏损压力下的行为博弈。市场需在现实高存栏压力 与远期乐观预期的矛盾中，寻找新的平衡点。 年度报告-鸡蛋 鸡蛋市场的缩量逻辑与矛盾叙事 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | | --- | | 报告日期： | ★[Ta从ble下_S行um阶m段ar到y]周期反转 2025 年，鸡蛋产业在供给过剩压力下步入深度下行周期，行业经 历持续亏损，产能进入实质性加速去化阶段。至第四季度，供给压 力已现边际缓解，市场交易逻辑从"周期下行"转向对"周期反转" 的博弈。当前市场处于关键转折期，呈现三重特征： 1、现实压制仍存：高存栏基数压制现货反弹空间，而需求端结构 分化——工业需求托底，家庭消费疲软； 农 2、反转基础初具：低补栏与加速淘汰共同驱动产能进入下降通道； 产 品 3、博弈复杂性加剧：产业内部形成"价格-淘汰-补栏"的动态博 弈循环，而贸易环节的投机行为可能放大短期波动。 ★ 投资策略 单边：一季度合约（JD2602/JD2603）：趋势虽受产能边际改善支 撑，但属春节后 ...

今年第四季度以来，祖代种鸡更新量的意外跃升，正悄然改写未来一到两年白羽肉鸡的市场格局。 山东卓创资讯股份有限公司（以下简称"卓创资讯"）最新调研数据显示，2025年12月份，国内白羽肉鸡 祖代种鸡更新量预计可达18万套，结合1月份至11月份已实现的133.43万套，全年总更新量预计将突破 150万套。这一数字显著高于上半年业内普遍预期的130万套左右，为白羽肉鸡行业的持续扩量提供了关 键种源保障。 第四季度出现转机 2025年上半年，白羽肉鸡行业一度被种源紧张的阴影笼罩。 受年初禽流感疫情影响，1月份至2月份祖代种鸡更新量低迷，行业引种国也从美国、新西兰转为法国。 但由于法国单批次供种能力相对有限，业内对全年引种量持谨慎态度，普遍预期全年更新量约在130万 套。 转机出现在第四季度。卓创资讯肉禽行业分析师冯筱程向《证券日报》记者分析表示："自9月份起，法 国供种方调整了供种方案，实现了对单一企业连续多批次引种，同时国内自主育种企业也多计划在四季 度集中更新。" 若全年祖代种鸡更新量站上150万套高位，将对未来两年白羽肉鸡的商品代供应和市场格局产生实质性 影响。 冯筱程表示，从种禽端来看，这首先对国内白羽肉鸡行 ...

Group 1 - The demand for eggs is improving, while the supply and demand for broiler chickens are both strong [1] - From December 1 to 7, the retail price of eggs in 36 major cities increased by 0.2% compared to the previous period, while the retail price of broiler chickens remained stable [1] - The western region saw a significant increase in egg prices, with Guiyang, Yinchuan, and Chongqing rising by 6.6%, 1.5%, and 0.6% respectively [1] Group 2 - In the eastern region, the prices of broiler chickens increased notably, with Nanjing, Qingdao, and Xiamen rising by 6.1%, 2.0%, and 1.7% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiantan Co., Ltd. reported a chicken product sales revenue of 494 million yuan for November 2025, with a year-on-year change of 11.63% and a month-on-month change of -1.79% [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The sales volume for chicken products reached 57,400 tons in November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.34% and a month-on-month increase of 1.89% [1] Group 2: Project Development - The first phase of the prepared food project is progressing steadily in terms of research and development, brand building, and market sales [1] - The second phase of the project commenced production on July 17, 2024, with production capacity gradually being released [1] - The increase in production and processing volume is expected to lead to higher sales volume and revenue [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg - laying hen inventory remains at an absolute high. In November, the market demand is in a seasonal off - peak period. Although the inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased, the supply is still high, and the market maintains a situation of loose supply and demand. The long - term egg - laying hen production capacity is still in surplus, with significant price pressure. The overall long - term trend is bearish, but it is approaching an inflection point. If speculating on a rebound, it is recommended to focus on the far - month contracts [1]. - The current egg - laying hen inventory is high, and egg production is large. The trend of the number of culled chickens sold for slaughter is rising to the highest level in the same period, and the age of culled chickens continues to decline. The breeding profit is poor, and the probability of farmers delaying culling and molting increases [5]. - For the far - end, the production capacity is still at an absolute high, and the number of large - scale farms is increasing. Large manufacturers mainly maintain their original production plans, so the clearance of production capacity may be relatively slow. The enthusiasm of farmers for replenishing chicks is relatively low [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The inventory of laying hens is high. In November, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The proportion of main - laying hens increased, while that of reserve and to - be - slaughtered hens decreased. The proportion of hens over 450 days old decreased to 8.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%, and the proportion of main - laying hens aged 120 - 450 days increased to 78.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [1][18]. - The production rate is expected to increase as the temperature drops. However, due to low breeding profits, the number of old hens culled remains high, and the enthusiasm for culling is fair. In November, the chick sales volume increased slightly, but the overall replenishment sentiment remains cautious. The inventory structure shows that the proportion of large and medium - sized eggs increased month - on - month, while that of small - sized eggs decreased [1]. - The long - term production capacity of laying hens is in surplus, with high price pressure. The short - term price game lies in whether the actual number of culled chickens will create a shortage in the peak season for near - month contracts and the impact of low chick sales on far - month expectations [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: After the festival, the price reached a phased bottom. The recent rebound declined due to poor demand. The previous low of the main contract may be a phased low. There may be a second bottom - testing when the contract approaches delivery, and the bottom - rebounding and bottom - grinding range may be between 2800 - 3400 [6]. - **Single - side Strategy**: Close out the previous short positions, and either wait and see or lightly speculate on the peak - season rebound [6]. - **Basis Strategy**: Wait and see. As the number of culled chickens sold for slaughter increases, the spot price shows weak stability, and the rebound is less than that of the futures [6]. - **Spread Strategy**: Wait and see [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - **Egg Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 15.35% and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past three years at 37.63% [7]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory management, to prevent inventory devaluation, short egg futures to lock in finished - product profits (10% recommended for JD2601 and JD2601 - C - 340). If worried about inventory devaluation but there is no suitable price on the futures market, sell call options (10% recommended). If worried about inventory devaluation but don't want to miss the opportunity of a sharp egg - price increase, buy out - of - the - money put options. For procurement management, to prevent future egg - price increases, buy far - month egg contracts according to the procurement plan. If worried about price increases but there is no suitable price on the futures market, sell put options. If worried about procurement price increases but don't want to lock in the purchase - and - sales profit in advance, buy out - of - the - money call options [7]. Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: After the egg price hit the bottom, the willingness of traders to stock up increased, and the market sales speed accelerated. Coupled with the slowdown of the egg - laying cycle of hens due to low temperatures in the north, the supply - side pressure was slightly relieved. It is expected that the egg price will mainly rise slowly and fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The average egg price in Shandong's main production area is 6.09 yuan/kg, up 0.14 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.63 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.73 yuan/kg, unchanged; and in Beijing, it is 6.16 yuan/kg, unchanged [8]. - **Negative Information**: In the third week of November (collection date: November 20), mutton prices increased month - on - month, while the prices of pork products, eggs, chicken, commercial - generation chicks, live cattle, and laying - hen compound feed decreased month - on - month. The prices of beef, fresh milk, corn, soybean meal, fattening - pig compound feed, and broiler compound feed remained unchanged month - on - month [8][9]. 2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg price quotes in the production areas [8]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - The main contract of eggs has switched to the 01 contract. The opening price at the beginning of the week was 3294 yuan/ton, and the closing price at the end of the week was 3117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.34%. The open interest was 161,000 contracts, a decrease of 10,024 contracts from last week [9]. 3.2 Basis and Spread Structure Analysis - **Spread Structure**: The overall egg spread shows a contango structure. Although the 1 - 2 spread shows a back structure, it is actually a normal seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, and the overall structure is contango [11]. - **Basis Structure**: As the number of culled chickens sold for slaughter increases, the spot price shows weak stability. The basis of the 01 contract fluctuates insignificantly, and the far - month basis is weak [13]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The current egg - laying hen breeding profit is still poor, at the lowest level in the past five years seasonally. Farmers have the incentive to cull chickens. This week, the breeding profit remained in the red, with little change. Feed prices have rebounded, and the corn price has strengthened in the short term, leading to an increase in breeding costs. If the current low breeding profit persists, farmers' motivation to recover losses will gradually weaken, accelerating the culling of chickens [15]. Chapter 5: This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Egg - Laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The proportion of main - laying hens increased, while that of reserve and to - be - slaughtered hens decreased [18]. - **Chick Situation**: In November, chick sales increased slightly. The total sales volume of commercial - generation chicks of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information was about 39.55 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.02%. Egg - laying hen breeding is still in a loss stage, and the prices of eggs and old hens remain low. Farmers are cautious about the future market, and the order placement of breeding enterprises has not improved significantly. Only in some areas with a slightly higher empty - pen rate is there phased replenishment [20]. - **Culled Chicken Situation**: There is a disagreement between Zhuochuang and Ganglian data. Zhuochuang shows a month - on - month decrease in culled chickens, while Ganglian shows a continuous increase in the number of culled chickens this month, and the market's divergence over the data is increasing [23]. 5.2 Consumption Situation - The egg sales volume in the main sales areas remains weak, and the arrival volume in Dongguan is relatively high [26]. 5.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the inventory in the production and circulation links is neutral, with 1 day in the production link and 1.24 days in the circulation link [28].

Group 1 - The egg market is experiencing strong supply and demand, with a slight increase in broiler chicken slaughter volume [1] - From November 24 to 30, retail prices of eggs in 36 major cities remained stable, while retail prices of broiler chickens decreased by 0.1% [1] - The western region saw a significant decline in egg prices, with prices in Kunming, Chongqing, and Nanning dropping by 7.9%, 1.7%, and 1.0% respectively [1] Group 2 - In the eastern region, the decline in retail prices of broiler chickens was notable, with prices in Shanghai and Qingdao decreasing by 4.8% and 0.4% respectively [1]