行业 鸡蛋 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 鸡蛋 | 2601 | 3251 | 3210 | 3231 | 3190 | 3229 | -22 | -0.68% | 20185 ...

Report Overview - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: November 17, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The spot market has weakened again this week. The prices of pink eggs in Hubei and Hunan have gradually declined, while the prices of red eggs in the north have remained stable. The market sales have returned to a slow pace. Considering the cooler temperature and better egg storage conditions, there will be no significant price drops as in the rainy season and summer. Egg prices are expected to adjust narrowly at a low level next week. [8] - In the futures market, due to the temporary weakness of the spot market, prices have declined this week. The near - term contracts have dropped significantly as they are approaching delivery, while the far - term contracts are relatively firm due to the expectation of a decline in inventory. [8] - Fundamentally, the laying - hen inventory decreased month - on - month for the first time in October, indicating that the poor breeding profits have gradually affected the supply side. The monthly replenishment data in the past four months shows that the laying - hen inventory is expected to decline slightly in the medium term. The longer the low - price period in the fourth quarter, the greater the probability and elasticity of a market reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. [8] - In terms of operation, the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The low spot price may continue for some time. Opportunities for long positions in far - term contracts can be considered on dips, but there may still be fluctuations in the near term. A reverse spread between near - term and far - term contracts is advisable. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2601, 2602, and 2512 have declined, with decreases of 1.73%, 0.13%, and 0.26% respectively. The average price in the main production areas is 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day. [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Treat the market as a low - level fluctuation in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities in far - term contracts on dips, and consider a reverse spread between near - term and far - term contracts. [8] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared to October 2024. [9] - **Replenishment**: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024. [9][10] 3. Data Overview - **Elimination Volume**: As of November 13, 2025, the national elimination volumes of laying hens in the previous three weeks were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend. [18] - **Elimination Age**: As of November 13, 2025, the average elimination age of laying hens was 493 days, unchanged from the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month. [18]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: November 10, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Egg 2601 | 3379 | 3369 | 3392 | 3338 | 3391 | 12 | 0.36% | 140053 | 180370 | 169963 | | Egg 2602 | 3077 | 3075 | 3082 | 3049 | 3081 | 4 | 0.13% | 32666 | 112915 | 1308 | | Egg 2512 | 3222 | 3220 | 3229 | 3191 | 3219 | -3 | -0.09% | 240840 | 148243 | -18354 | [7] Core View - The national egg price rose today. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.01 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main consuming areas was 3.27 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 12 - contract fell 0.09%. - The spot market has improved significantly this week. The low - price areas in Hebei and Hubei have gradually increased, and the red eggs in the north have remained relatively stable. The inventory pressure has decreased significantly, and the market is in a normal trading state. - Fundamentally, the laying - hen inventory at the end of October decreased for the first time after 9 consecutive months of growth, indicating an inflection point. However, since the accelerated culling is in the early stage and the replenishment has only weakened significantly after July, the laying - hen inventory is expected to remain high and decline slightly by the end of the year. Without emotional support, the spot market is unlikely to have a continuous rebound. - In the futures market, the strengthening of the low - price spot areas has given confidence to the bulls. The market is currently in a continuous and relatively strong rebound, but the sustainability is questionable. Attention should be paid to the willingness of other spot areas to follow the price increase on weekends and in the future. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options. [8] Group 3: Industry News Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% from 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025 and 1.365 billion at the end of August 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend. It was up 5.59% compared with 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024. [9] Replenishment - In October 2025, the monthly output of laying - hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period in 2024. The total replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period in 2024. [9] Culling Volume - As of November 6, 2025, the national culling volumes in the previous three weeks were 20.02 million, 20.53 million, and 19.81 million respectively, showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. [9][14] Culling Age - As of November 6, 2025, the average culling age of hens was 493 days, 1 day earlier than last week and 6 days earlier than last month, indicating an accelerated culling process. [14]