Workflow
禽蛋
icon
Search documents
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251118
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 11:59
Industry Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: November 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The spot egg market has weakened again, with prices in the Hubei and Hunan powder egg regions declining, while prices in the northern red egg region remain stable. Egg sales have returned to a slow pace, and prices are expected to adjust narrowly at a low level this week. Futures prices have declined due to the temporary weakness of the spot market, with near - term contracts falling more significantly and far - term contracts being relatively firm due to the expectation of reduced inventory. The egg - laying hen inventory decreased month - on - month for the first time in October, and there is an expectation of a continuous slight decline in the medium - term. If the low - price period in the fourth quarter is longer, the probability and elasticity of a reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year will be greater. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and opportunities for long positions in far - term contracts can be considered on dips, while a reverse spread between near - and far - term contracts is advisable [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For the egg 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3251, the opening price was 3210, the highest price was 3231, the lowest price was 3190, the closing price was 3229, down 22 or - 0.68% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 201,850 and an open interest of 219,756 (an increase of 207,641). For the 2602 contract, the previous settlement price was 3048, the opening price was 3036, the highest price was 3042, the lowest price was 3018, the closing price was 3038, down 10 or - 0.33%, with a trading volume of 27,929 and an open interest of 117,265 (an increase of 2589). For the 2512 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the opening price was 3000, the highest price was 3023, the lowest price was 2970, the closing price was 2987, down 56 or - 1.84%, with a trading volume of 99,000 and an open interest of 57,337 (a decrease of 14,044) [7] - **Spot Market**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main consuming areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The 01 contract fell 0.68% [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Opportunities for long positions in far - term contracts can be considered on dips, but there may be fluctuations in the near term. A reverse spread between near - and far - term contracts is advisable [8] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% month - on - month from 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but up 5.59% year - on - year compared with 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024 [9] - **Chick Rearing**: In October 2025, the monthly output of egg - laying chicks by sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total chick rearing volume in the past four months (July - October 2025) was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024 [9] 3. Data Overview - **Culling Volume**: As of November 13, 2025, the weekly culling volumes of laying hens in the previous three weeks were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend [17] - **Culling Age**: As of November 13, 2025, the average culling age of laying hens was 493 days, unchanged from the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month [17]
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251021
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 09:08
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply of laying hens remains high, and the demand is generally weak. In the short - term, without significant improvement in demand, egg prices are likely to be weak. Near - month contracts are expected to show a volatile and weak trend, and it is advisable to consider shorting near - month contracts at high prices [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: For futures contracts, JD01 closed at 3169, up 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3339, down 8; JD09 closed at 3828, down 26. The 01 - 05 spread was - 170, up 11; the 05 - 09 spread was - 489, up 18; the 09 - 01 spread was 659, down 29. Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 01 egg/soybean meal had minor changes [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.72 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas it was 3.01 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. The average price of culled hens was 4.14 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The profit per laying hen was - 4.68 yuan, down 3.48 yuan from the previous day [3]. 2. Fundamental Information - **Price and Market Conditions**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased by 0.08 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas by 0.07 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country declined. Beijing's egg prices dropped by 5 yuan per box [6]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In September, the national laying hen inventory was 1.368 billion, up 0.03 billion from the previous month and 6% year - on - year. The estimated laying hen inventories for October, November, December 2025, and January 2026 are approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick and Culled Hen Data**: In September, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 39.2 million, down 1.5% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year. In the week of October 16, the culled hen出栏量 was 20.32 million, up 2.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Sales and Inventory**: As of October 17, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7374 tons, up 2.7% from the previous week. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, down 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. The production - link inventory was 1.05 days, down 0.45 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.1 days, down 0.23 days [8]. 3. Trading Logic - The supply of laying hens remains high, and there is short - term supply pressure. The demand is weak, and without significant improvement, egg prices are likely to be weak, with near - month contracts expected to show a volatile and weak trend [10]. 4. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [12].
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251016
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 09:35
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an egg daily report dated October 16, 2025, released by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product Research and Development [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3175, down 29 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3342, down 7; JD09 closed at 3863, down 7 [3] - The 01 - 05 spread closed at -167, down 22; the 05 - 09 spread remained unchanged at -521; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 688, up 22 [3] - Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 01 egg/soybean meal decreased slightly [3] Spot Market - The average price in the main production areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin [3][6] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.21 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin [3][8] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was -1.17 yuan, an increase of 4.64 yuan from the previous day [3] - Feed prices such as corn and soybean meal decreased slightly [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In September, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month, higher than expected. The monthly hatch of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises was 39.2 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14% [7] - From October 2025 to January 2026, the estimated laying - hen inventory is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7] - In the week of October 2, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was 20.12 million, an increase of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age was 500 days, an increase of 2 days [7] - As of the week of October 9, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7179 tons, a decrease of 5.8% from the previous week [8] - As of the week of October 9, the average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links increased by 0.24 days and 0.2 days respectively [8] - As of October 2, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.4 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.3 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 3, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was 3.3 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply of laying hens remains high, while the demand is generally weak. In the short term, egg prices are likely to be weak, and near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [10] - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10]
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251013
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 11:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of laying hens remains at a high level, with the national inventory of laying hens in September reaching 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and higher than expected. The demand side is generally weak. Without significant improvement in the short term, egg prices are likely to remain weak. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Information - Today's average price in the main production areas is 2.7 yuan per catty, down 0.1 yuan from the previous trading day, while the average price in the main sales areas is 3.11 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous day. The number of remaining trucks in Dongguan parking lot and 1st parking lot is reported. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable with some declines, and the market is in an oscillatory adjustment phase [6]. - In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. The monthly hatch volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease. Without considering delayed or concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 is 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7]. - From October 2nd to the week, the national culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 20.12 million, a 3% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of laying hens was 500 days, 2 days more than the previous week [7]. - As of the week of October 9th, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,179 tons, a 5.8% decrease from the previous week [8]. - As of the week of October 9th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.5 days, an increase of 0.24 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.34 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous week [8]. - As of October 2nd, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.4 yuan, a decrease of 0.3 yuan from the previous week. On October 3rd, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 3.3 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. - Today, the national price of culled hens has dropped, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.29 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.07 yuan from the previous trading day [9]. 3.2 Trading Logic The supply of laying hens remains high, and the demand is generally weak. Without significant short - term improvement, egg prices are likely to remain weak, and near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [12].
三季度青岛市粮油副食品市场供应充足
Zhong Guo Fa Zhan Wang· 2025-10-11 05:02
Core Viewpoint - The supply of grain and oil products in Qingdao is sufficient in the third quarter of 2025, with some prices experiencing slight declines while others, such as eggs and vegetables, have seen varying degrees of increases [1] Grain and Oil Prices - The average price of first-grade long-grain rice is 3.26 yuan per 500 grams, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter but down 2.11% year-on-year [2] - The average price of special flour is 2.37 yuan, down 1.67% quarter-on-quarter and 0.58% year-on-year [2] - The average price of 5-liter bottled peanut oil is 133.10 yuan per barrel, down 0.55% quarter-on-quarter and 2.06% year-on-year [2] - The average price of soybean oil is 59.43 yuan, down 0.37% quarter-on-quarter and 2.11% year-on-year [2] Pork Prices - The average price of live pigs is 7.09 yuan, down 3.70% quarter-on-quarter and 28.01% year-on-year [3] - The average price of pork belly is 15.42 yuan, down 1.06% quarter-on-quarter and 15.20% year-on-year [5] - The average price of lean pork is 15.68 yuan, down 1% quarter-on-quarter and 15.52% year-on-year [5] Egg Prices - The average price of eggs is 3.76 yuan, up 2.49% quarter-on-quarter but down 28.20% year-on-year [7] - The price fluctuations in eggs are influenced by seasonal demand and supply constraints due to high temperatures affecting production [8] Vegetable Prices - The average wholesale price of vegetables in three major markets is 2.47 yuan, up 11.26% quarter-on-quarter but down 11.79% year-on-year [12] - The average retail price of 19 vegetable varieties is 3.92 yuan, up 9.50% quarter-on-quarter but down 16.06% year-on-year [12] - The total supply of vegetables in the three major wholesale markets is 19,425 million kilograms, up 1.05% quarter-on-quarter but down 9.45% year-on-year [11]
节前备货进入尾声,蛋价或将承压走弱
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 11:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term rebound of egg prices is mainly affected by the double - festival stocking. As the festival stocking ends, egg prices are expected to decline. The futures price may not necessarily follow the spot price down. It is recommended to take a short position on the futures market when the price rises [5][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, the spot price of eggs showed a strong trend. The average price in the main production areas reached a maximum of around 3.81 yuan per catty, and in the main sales areas, it reached around 3.82 yuan per catty. The futures contract of eggs also performed strongly, but the increase was limited due to the high inventory of laying hens [4][11] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Recently, the market sales have slowed down. The short - term rebound of egg prices is mainly due to the double - festival stocking. As the stocking ends, the spot price of eggs has begun to fall. Although the supply pressure is high and the spot price has dropped, the near - month futures price is relatively low and the trading volume is large. It is expected that the futures price may not follow the spot price down [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to wait and see and trade at an appropriate time. Arbitrage and options trading: It is recommended to wait and see [6][9] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the market review in the first part, in September, the spot price of eggs was strong, and the futures price increased but with limited amplitude due to high inventory [11] 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Supply side**: In August, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The inventory of laying hens from September to December 2025 is estimated to be 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively. In September, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 38%, medium - sized eggs was 44%, and small - sized eggs was 18%. The egg - laying rate in September was about 91.11%, and it is expected to increase with the cooling of the weather. In August, the number of chicks hatched by sample enterprises decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and 8% year - on - year. The price of chicks in September was at a low level in the same period over the years. The market's enthusiasm for culling laying hens first increased and then decreased [12][14] - **Demand side**: In September, the demand was average, and the seasonal peak season was not as good as previous years. As of the week of September 18, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas increased by 5% week - on - week but was at a low - to - medium level in the same period over the years. From January to August 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the catering revenue in August increased by 2.1% year - on - year [21] - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [21] - **Cost and profit**: The current feed cost has little change. In September, the price of corn was 2358 yuan per ton, and the price of soybean meal dropped to 3038 yuan per ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2562 yuan per ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.81 yuan per catty of eggs. As of September 18, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.45 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.3 yuan per catty from the previous week. On September 18, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 2.97 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week [24] - **Substitutes**: The vegetable price index continued to rise, but it was at a relatively low - to - medium level in the same period over the years. The pork price fluctuated with little overall change, and the substitution demand for eggs was relatively limited [30] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply side**: The supply pressure is still significant. The rebound of egg prices has improved the breeding profit, and the enthusiasm for culling has decreased. The number of culled hens is at a low - to - medium level in the same period over the years, and the age of culled hens has increased. It is expected that the inventory of laying hens will remain high [34] - **Demand side**: As the seasonal stocking ends, the boost to egg prices is limited. The market sales have slowed down, but some areas still have good sales due to festival stocking [34] - **Feed cost**: The comprehensive feed cost per catty of eggs is about 2.8 yuan per catty. The prices of corn and soybean meal have little change, and the feed cost is expected to remain at the current level [34] - **Strategy recommendation**: As the holiday expectations end, the spot price of eggs is expected to fall. The near - month futures contract is significantly lower than the spot price, and the futures and spot prices will converge in the short term. It is a capacity - reduction cycle in the second half of the year, but the fourth quarter is the peak consumption season. It is recommended to take a short position on the futures market when the price rises [34]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250917
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 01:41
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Egg futures contracts 2510, 2511, and 2512 all declined, with the 2511 contract down 0.86%. The main producing areas' average egg price was 3.76 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the main consuming areas' average price was 4.00 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin [7]. Core View - After the weakest summer peak season in recent years, the spot market has stabilized and rebounded. The futures market rose today to catch up after the weekend's strong spot market. However, supply pressure is difficult to ease in the short - term, and there may be fluctuations after price increases. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices. The near - month 10 contract may enter the delivery month with a high discount. The rebound space should not be overestimated, and the operation of subsequent contracts needs to focus on elimination and replenishment data [8]. Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of August, the monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.365 billion, a 0.7% month - on - month increase and a 6.0% year - on - year increase. The monthly hatch of layer chicks in August was about 39.81 million, a decrease from July and a significant decrease compared with the same period in 2024 [9]. - The weekly chicken culling volume has been increasing since August, and as of September 4, the average age of culled chickens was 495 days, 1 day earlier than the previous week and 11 days earlier than the previous month [10]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profits, egg 10 - contract basis, and egg 12 - 02 spread, etc. [16][11]
【环球财经】美国多州暴发沙门氏菌疫情 近百人感染
Xin Hua She· 2025-08-29 06:46
Core Viewpoint - The CDC has reported a salmonella outbreak linked to contaminated eggs, with nearly 100 infections across multiple states, prompting a recall from the implicated company "Country Eggs" [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Outbreak Details - A total of 95 individuals from 14 states have been infected with the same strain of salmonella, with 18 requiring hospitalization and no reported fatalities [1] - The majority of cases are concentrated in California [1] Company Response - "Country Eggs" announced a recall on August 27 for eggs potentially contaminated with salmonella, primarily distributed to supermarkets and food distributors in California and Nevada [1] Public Health Advisory - The CDC advises the public against consuming the recalled eggs and recommends thorough cleaning of surfaces that may have come into contact with the eggs [1] - Symptoms of salmonella infection typically include diarrhea, fever, and abdominal cramps, appearing 6 hours to 6 days after exposure [1] - Most patients recover within 4 to 7 days, but young children, the elderly, and immunocompromised individuals are at higher risk for severe illness [1]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250819
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:50
Report Overview - Report Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure in the egg market this year is significant, with the peak - season price callback reaching nearly 0.5 yuan/jin, compared to the usual 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/jin. The logic of price increase during the peak season is weakening, causing continuous declines in near - month contracts. The near - month 09 contract has squeezed out the premium and fallen below 3200 points. The futures market sentiment is extremely low. The near - month contracts may still be bearish in the long - term, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if the low egg prices are reflected in subsequent replenishment data [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined. The 2509 contract fell 2.91% to 3098, the 2510 contract fell 2.51% to 3113, and the 2511 contract fell 2.64% to 3208. The national egg price rose, with the average price in the main production areas at 3.28 yuan/jin and in the main sales areas at 3.47 yuan/jin, both up 0.17 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The peak - season price increase logic has weakened due to supply pressure and cold - storage egg outflows. The near - month 09 contract has squeezed out the premium. The futures market sentiment is low. The near - month contracts may be bearish in the long - term, and long - position opportunities are risky. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: The inventory of in - production laying hens is on the rise. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, down from 40.75 million in June and 41.68 million in the same period in 2024. The decline in July was the first year - on - year decrease this year [9]. - **Hen Culling**: From the first to the third week of August 14, the national hen culling volume showed a downward trend, and the current absolute value is close to the level of the previous three years. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than last month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between the egg 09 and 10 contracts, the average price in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of the egg 09 contract, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, and the egg - chicken breeding profit [12][13][16].
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250730
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 13:08
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Eggs Daily Report" [2] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3636, down 7 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3480, up 5; JD09 closed at 3570, down 6 [3] - 01 - 05 spread closed at 156, down 12; 05 - 09 spread closed at -90, up 11; 09 - 01 spread closed at -66, up 1 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.64, down 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.19, down 0.01 [3] Spot Market - Main producing area average price was 3.25 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day; main selling area average price was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged [3][6] - National mainstream prices were mostly stable, with some regions showing small fluctuations [6] Profit Calculation - Average price of culled chickens was 5.81 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin; average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan/feather [3] - Egg - laying hen profit was 18.80 yuan/feather, down 0.13 yuan/feather from the previous day [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In June, the national laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [7] - In June, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 40.75 million, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7] - From July to October 2025, the estimated laying hen inventories are 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7] - From July 18 - 24, the national main producing area culled chicken slaughter volume was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the average culling age of culled chickens was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the national representative selling area egg sales volume was 8032 tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous week [7] - As of July 24, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, unchanged [7] - As of July 24, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.03 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.45 yuan/jin from the previous week; on July 25, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 13.97 yuan/feather, an increase of 2.06 yuan/feather from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - Recent egg prices have stabilized at the current level, and spot prices are expected to strengthen seasonally. After the plum - rain season and with pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory stocking, prices are expected to rise after reaching the bottom, but the increase may be limited due to the current loose production capacity [10] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the safety margin is high [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Sell put options [11]