| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、基本面情况 | 3 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 8 | | | | 免责声明 | 9 | 农产品板块研发报告 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2 月鸡蛋现货价格走势偏弱，春节后开年蛋价主产区均价最低跌至 2.86 元/斤附近，主销区最高涨至 3.02 元/斤附近。 近月鸡蛋主力期货合约先跌后涨，目前供应端变化不大，需求端随着春 节结束后开始进入淡季，使得蛋价表现偏强，3 月合约目前在 2978 附近。 【市场展望】 春节结束市场进入淡季消费，近期鸡蛋现货价格稳定为主整体变化不 大，主产区目前在 2.86 元/斤附近， 主销区在 3.02 元/斤附近。当前利润 情况尚可，市场淘汰积极性有所下降。目前存栏虽有缓解但前期蛋价表现较 好使得整体去化有所减弱，预计未来蛋价可能会有所承压。 期货方面，预计产能去化速度可能会有所减弱，远月合约 ...

本报讯（记者谢伟娜 通讯员张丹）日前，曲周县组织开展电商主播专题培训，全县各乡镇、企业的150 余名主播齐聚一堂，聆听石家庄资深电商专家带来的"重塑直播未来 赋能千万主播"主题授课，为曲周 童车童玩、禽蛋产品等特色好物"云端出圈"注入动能。 （来源：邯郸日报） 转自：邯郸日报 近年来，曲周县将"一品一播"作为推动县域经济高质量发展、激活乡村振兴的重要抓手，构建起"政府 引导+企业主体+院校支撑"的发展模式。目前该县已建成3000余平方米的综合直播基地，配套完善选品 中心、共享直播间、电商学院等设施，通过优化物流网络、开展常态化培训，形成"培训—孵化—扶 持"全链条培育体系。 "我们不仅要让主播'学得会'，更要让他们'用得好、长得快'。"曲周县"一品一播"工作专班办公室主任 李永朝表示，下一步将围绕童车童玩、禽蛋、特色农产品等主导产业定制专属课程，并依托"跨境+商 城+基地+村点"四位一体销售矩阵，为主播搭建实战舞台，推动更多本土主播从"新手"成长为"能手"。 作为曲周县"一品一播"人才培育工程的关键举措，培训紧扣县域电商高质量发展需求，课程设置兼顾理 论深度与实操实效。围绕企业定位、核心价值塑造、主播成长路径 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: January 27, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core View - The market's bottom - fishing sentiment increased after New Year's Day this year, and the egg price was slightly stronger. With the late Spring Festival this year, the spot price continued to rise steadily in the middle and late January due to stocking demand, with a larger - than - expected increase. The near - month contracts were relatively strong, while the far - month contracts starting from 05 were weak. The seesaw market between near - and far - month contracts will continue, and the key factor is the spot performance. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly before the Spring Festival, with no obvious trend in futures unilateral operation. After the festival, pay attention to the support level around 3 yuan [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Pre - settlement price | Opening price | High price | Low price | Closing price | Change | Change rate | Volume | Open interest | Open interest change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Egg 2602 | 3059 | 3058 | 3089 | 3050 | 3069 | 10 | 0.33% | 11769 | 17465 | - 3695 | | Egg 2603 | 3064 | 3080 | 3101 | 3055 | 3069 | 5 | 0.16% | 272356 | 268815 | - 2167 | | Egg 2605 | 3530 | 3530 | 3549 | 3516 | 3527 | - 3 | - 0.08% | 33086 | 91330 | 201 | [7] Operation Suggestions - It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly before the Spring Festival, with no obvious trend in futures unilateral operation. After the festival, pay attention to the support level around 3 yuan [8] Group 5: Industry News Inventory - As of the end of December 2025, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.344 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% and a year - on - year increase of 5.00% [9] Replenishment - In December 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.59 million, basically the same as that in November. Compared with the same period in 2024, it decreased significantly. The total replenishment volume from September to December 2025 was about 157.49 million, less than that in the same period last year, indicating that the medium - term production capacity pressure may continue to ease [9] Group 6: Data Overview Elimination Volume - As of the three weeks before January 8, the national elimination volume of laying hens was 19.39 million, 19.82 million, and 18.96 million respectively, maintaining a relatively high level but slightly decreasing [17] Elimination Age - As of January 8, the average elimination age of laying hens was 484 days, the same as last week and 2 days earlier than last month [17]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The recent price increase is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices. Considering that the March contract is for after the Spring Festival, when egg demand is weak and prices are low, the upward space for the 03 contract is expected to be relatively limited. The egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely continue to decline in the next few months [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Fundamental Information - **Price**: The average price in the main production areas is 3.64 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas is 3.91 yuan/jin, both remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable, with some areas showing price increases or minor fluctuations [2][4]. - **Inventory**: In December, the national in - laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and a 5% year - on - year increase, lower than expected. The monthly hatchling volume of egg - laying chicken seedlings in December was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [5]. - **Slaughter**: From January 16th, the weekly slaughter volume of egg - laying hens in the main production areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of laying hens was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Sales**: As of January 8th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,391 tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week, at a historical low [5]. - **Profit**: As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, a 0.26 increase from the previous week. On January 9th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a 0.41 yuan/jin decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Days**: As of January 15th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, and in the circulation link was 1.05 days, both slightly decreasing from the previous week [6]. - **Price of Culled Hens**: The price of culled hens in the main production areas is 4.45 yuan/jin, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [7]. II. Trading Logic - Near the Spring Festival, the overall market sales are fast, and the spot price has risen significantly, providing some support for the futures market. The egg market is starting to reduce production capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely continue to decline in the next few months. The upward space for the 03 contract is expected to be relatively limited [8]. III. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider building long positions in the far - month 5 contracts on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].

Core Viewpoint - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the supply of grain, oil, and food products in Qingdao is sufficient, but prices for some grains, oils, and vegetables have increased month-on-month, while prices for live pigs, pork, and eggs have decreased month-on-month [1]. Price Trends - The average price of first-grade long-grain rice is 3.28 yuan per 500 grams, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.60% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.24% [2]. - The average price of special flour is 2.35 yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.80% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.57% [2]. - The average price of 5-liter bottled peanut oil is 133.12 yuan per barrel, with a month-on-month increase of 0.01% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.58% [2]. - The average price of soybean oil is 59.95 yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.88% and a year-on-year increase of 0.01% [2]. Pork and Egg Prices - The average price of live pigs is 7.09 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.70% and a year-on-year decrease of 28.01% [3]. - The average price of five-spice pork is 15.42 yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.06% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.20% [3]. - The average price of lean pork is 15.68 yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.52% [3]. - The average price of eggs is 3.58 yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 4.70% and a year-on-year decrease of 28.46% [5]. Vegetable Price Trends - The overall price of vegetables in Qingdao is experiencing an increase, primarily driven by seasonal factors, consistent with trends from previous years [7]. - The total volume of vegetables in three major wholesale markets (Chengyang, Huazhong, and Fushun Road) is 17,958 million kilograms, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 7.55% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.86% [8]. - The average wholesale price of vegetables in these markets is 2.54 yuan per 500 grams, with a month-on-month increase of 2.83% and a year-on-year increase of 0.79% [9]. - The average retail price of 19 vegetable varieties is 4.64 yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 18.37% and a year-on-year increase of 4.27% [9].

Report Overview - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - During the holiday, the national egg price fluctuated slightly higher. The futures opened higher and then declined, showing that the futures market is stronger than the spot market recently, with some off - market funds willing to bottom - fish. The存栏 has reached an inflection point, with weak current situation but good future expectations. The 02 contract is in an absolute off - season, and there is no sign of a trend increase in the spot price. It may weaken again in the future. The post - holiday contracts, especially the peak - season 05 contract, are more suitable for bulls. The near - and far - month contracts should be treated as reverse spreads [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2602 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2931, the opening price was 2977, the highest price was 2987, the lowest price was 2951, the closing price was 2957, the increase was 26, the increase rate was 0.89%, the trading volume was 97,293, the open interest was 87,152, and the open interest change was - 18,716. - For the 2603 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2950, the opening price was 2973, the highest price was 3021, the lowest price was 2970, the closing price was 2992, the increase was 42, the increase rate was 1.42%, the trading volume was 224,323, the open interest was 219,525, and the open interest change was 8285. - For the 2605 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3511, the opening price was 3535, the highest price was 3563, the lowest price was 3531, the closing price was 3550, the increase was 39, the increase rate was 1.11%, the trading volume was 55,015, the open interest was 96,930, and the open interest change was - 3596 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The 02 contract is in an absolute off - season, with no sign of a trend increase in the spot price, and may weaken again. Bulls can focus on the peak - season contracts in the second or third quarter, and treat the near - and far - month contracts as reverse spreads [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of November 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, ending the previous continuous increase. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 5.3%, indicating significant supply - side pressure [9]. - **Replenishment**: In November 2025, the monthly number of egg - laying chicks hatched by sample enterprises was about 39.55 million, slightly higher than that in October. Compared with the same period in 2024, it decreased by 13.5%. The total replenishment from August to November 2025 was about 157.71 million, compared with about 180.11 million in the same period last year [9]. - **Elimination Volume**: From the three weeks up to December 18, the national number of eliminated chickens was 20.82 million, 19.84 million, and 19.67 million respectively, showing a continuous decline [10]. - **Elimination Age**: As of December 18, the average elimination age of chickens was 486 days, the same as the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - laying chicken breeding profits, the average price of the main egg - producing areas, the seasonal trend of egg contracts, the basis of egg contracts, and the price difference between egg contracts. The data sources include Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [11][14][17]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 12 月 09 日 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3124 | 3153 | -29 | 01-05 | -457 | -484 | 27 | | JD05 | 3581 | 3637 | -56 | 05-09 | -489 | -493 | 4 | | JD09 | 4070 | 4130 | -60 | 09-01 | 946 | 977 | -31 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 0.00 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.58 | 1.61 | -0.03 | 05鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.30 | 1.31 | -0.01 | | 09鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.7 ...

Industry Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: November 18, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The spot egg market has weakened again, with prices in the Hubei and Hunan powder egg regions declining, while prices in the northern red egg region remain stable. Egg sales have returned to a slow pace, and prices are expected to adjust narrowly at a low level this week. Futures prices have declined due to the temporary weakness of the spot market, with near - term contracts falling more significantly and far - term contracts being relatively firm due to the expectation of reduced inventory. The egg - laying hen inventory decreased month - on - month for the first time in October, and there is an expectation of a continuous slight decline in the medium - term. If the low - price period in the fourth quarter is longer, the probability and elasticity of a reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year will be greater. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and opportunities for long positions in far - term contracts can be considered on dips, while a reverse spread between near - and far - term contracts is advisable [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For the egg 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3251, the opening price was 3210, the highest price was 3231, the lowest price was 3190, the closing price was 3229, down 22 or - 0.68% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 201,850 and an open interest of 219,756 (an increase of 207,641). For the 2602 contract, the previous settlement price was 3048, the opening price was 3036, the highest price was 3042, the lowest price was 3018, the closing price was 3038, down 10 or - 0.33%, with a trading volume of 27,929 and an open interest of 117,265 (an increase of 2589). For the 2512 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the opening price was 3000, the highest price was 3023, the lowest price was 2970, the closing price was 2987, down 56 or - 1.84%, with a trading volume of 99,000 and an open interest of 57,337 (a decrease of 14,044) [7] - **Spot Market**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main consuming areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The 01 contract fell 0.68% [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Opportunities for long positions in far - term contracts can be considered on dips, but there may be fluctuations in the near term. A reverse spread between near - and far - term contracts is advisable [8] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% month - on - month from 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but up 5.59% year - on - year compared with 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024 [9] - **Chick Rearing**: In October 2025, the monthly output of egg - laying chicks by sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total chick rearing volume in the past four months (July - October 2025) was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024 [9] 3. Data Overview - **Culling Volume**: As of November 13, 2025, the weekly culling volumes of laying hens in the previous three weeks were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend [17] - **Culling Age**: As of November 13, 2025, the average culling age of laying hens was 493 days, unchanged from the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month [17]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply of laying hens remains high, and the demand is generally weak. In the short - term, without significant improvement in demand, egg prices are likely to be weak. Near - month contracts are expected to show a volatile and weak trend, and it is advisable to consider shorting near - month contracts at high prices [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: For futures contracts, JD01 closed at 3169, up 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3339, down 8; JD09 closed at 3828, down 26. The 01 - 05 spread was - 170, up 11; the 05 - 09 spread was - 489, up 18; the 09 - 01 spread was 659, down 29. Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 01 egg/soybean meal had minor changes [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.72 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas it was 3.01 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. The average price of culled hens was 4.14 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The profit per laying hen was - 4.68 yuan, down 3.48 yuan from the previous day [3]. 2. Fundamental Information - **Price and Market Conditions**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased by 0.08 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas by 0.07 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country declined. Beijing's egg prices dropped by 5 yuan per box [6]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In September, the national laying hen inventory was 1.368 billion, up 0.03 billion from the previous month and 6% year - on - year. The estimated laying hen inventories for October, November, December 2025, and January 2026 are approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick and Culled Hen Data**: In September, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 39.2 million, down 1.5% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year. In the week of October 16, the culled hen出栏量 was 20.32 million, up 2.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Sales and Inventory**: As of October 17, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7374 tons, up 2.7% from the previous week. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, down 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. The production - link inventory was 1.05 days, down 0.45 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.1 days, down 0.23 days [8]. 3. Trading Logic - The supply of laying hens remains high, and there is short - term supply pressure. The demand is weak, and without significant improvement, egg prices are likely to be weak, with near - month contracts expected to show a volatile and weak trend [10]. 4. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [12].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an egg daily report dated October 16, 2025, released by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product Research and Development [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3175, down 29 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3342, down 7; JD09 closed at 3863, down 7 [3] - The 01 - 05 spread closed at -167, down 22; the 05 - 09 spread remained unchanged at -521; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 688, up 22 [3] - Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 01 egg/soybean meal decreased slightly [3] Spot Market - The average price in the main production areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin [3][6] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.21 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin [3][8] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was -1.17 yuan, an increase of 4.64 yuan from the previous day [3] - Feed prices such as corn and soybean meal decreased slightly [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In September, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month, higher than expected. The monthly hatch of laying - hen chicks in sample enterprises was 39.2 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14% [7] - From October 2025 to January 2026, the estimated laying - hen inventory is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [7] - In the week of October 2, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was 20.12 million, an increase of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age was 500 days, an increase of 2 days [7] - As of the week of October 9, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7179 tons, a decrease of 5.8% from the previous week [8] - As of the week of October 9, the average weekly inventory in the production and circulation links increased by 0.24 days and 0.2 days respectively [8] - As of October 2, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.4 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.3 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 3, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was 3.3 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply of laying hens remains high, while the demand is generally weak. In the short term, egg prices are likely to be weak, and near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [10] - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10]