Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of interest rates oscillating within a balanced range, there may be two 10BP interest rate cuts in monetary policy in 2026. The central bank is likely to use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and treasury bond trading to maintain interest rates within the 1.6 - 1.9% range for the 10 - year treasury bond yield. Although the Q4 monetary policy meeting did not explicitly mention "reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", it did not rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in Q1, especially if there is strong upward pressure on interest rates during market operation [2]. - The Q3 GDP data of the United States provided little incremental information, and the recovery of industrial production was limited. The Q3 GDP showed a large quarterly - annualized growth rate, but the year - on - year growth rate increased only slightly. The US economy continued to be uneven, with slow employment growth but decent economic and consumption growth rates [2]. - The decline in upstream price indicators continued to narrow. In the week of December 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased slightly week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, while the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. Various industrial product prices and indicators also showed different trends [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs How to Understand "Financing Costs Operating at a Low Level" - The central bank's recent meetings mentioned "promoting the low - level operation of the overall social financing cost", indicating satisfaction with the current interest rate fluctuation range. The 10 - year treasury bond yield valuation in the 1.6 - 1.9% range may be the central bank's perceived balanced state, and the central bank may use various tools to maintain this range. The reduction of the "prevention of fund idling" statement in the Q4 monetary policy meeting also implies that the current interest rate trend is not likely to induce fund idling. The relatively low credit spread of primary - market credit bond issuance rates compared to treasury bond yields suggests that a further increase in treasury bond yields may affect social financing growth [2]. - Based on the above - mentioned balanced interest rate range, there may be two 10BP interest rate cuts in 2026. Although the Q4 meeting did not clearly mention "reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", the concept of "using various tools" is consistent with the "reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts and other monetary policy tools" mentioned in the Central Economic Work Conference, so the possibility of Q1 interest rate cuts is not excluded, especially when there is strong upward pressure on interest rates [2]. US Economic Data Analysis - The Q3 GDP data of the United States showed a large quarterly - annualized growth rate, but the year - on - year growth rate of 2.3% increased only slightly. Personal consumption growth and import decline were the main drivers of GDP. The PCE provided limited incremental information on the current inflation situation. The US economy remained uneven, with slow employment growth but decent economic and consumption growth rates. Despite the impact of tariff hikes, the cumulative import volume in the United States from January to September 2025 still increased by more than 7% year - on - year due to pre - stocking. Industrial production recovered to a post - pandemic high but was still below the historical peak [2]. Upstream Price Indicator Analysis - In the week of December 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased 0.05% week - on - week and decreased 22.18% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased 1.93% week - on - week and increased 13.58% year - on - year. In the week of December 19, the edible agricultural product price index increased 0.20% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.81% [2]. - The domestic cement price index decreased 0.17% week - on - week; the South China Iron Ore Index increased 1.60% on average week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased 0.05% week - on - week; the rebar inventory index decreased 6.02% week - on - week, and the rebar price index increased 0.08% week - on - week. In the week of December 19, the production material price index remained flat week - on - week and decreased 1.07% year - on - year [2]. - The average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures increased 3.24% and 3.08% week - on - week respectively. The average spot price of LME copper increased 2.97% week - on - week; the average spot price of aluminum increased 2.12% week - on - week, and the copper - gold ratio increased 0.19% week - on - week [2]. - From December 1 - 25, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 331,000 square meters, compared with about 498,000 square meters per day in December 2024 [2].