Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Weekly Report on Rebar by Huajin Futures, dated May 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the black market declined significantly. Demand is entering the off - season and is expected to be under pressure. With high macro - environmental uncertainty and insufficient market speculation sentiment, rebar prices are expected to have further downside [3] Group 4: Supply - Mysteel's rebar production this week dropped by 5.97 tons to 225.51 tons, with electric furnace production falling by 3.49 tons and blast furnace production by 2.48 tons. The SAC steel production data shows high output levels. With good steel mill profits, production is expected to remain at the current level [3][10] Group 5: Demand - The apparent demand for rebar remained stable this week but was weak overall. Third - quarter demand is expected to be lackluster, and as it enters the off - season, demand will be under pressure. The high capacity utilization rate of cement clinker indicates some support from the infrastructure sector [3][15] Group 6: Inventory - Rebar's total inventory decreased slightly this week. The total inventory decreased by 23.17 tons, with mill inventory down 1.30 tons to 186.46 tons and social inventory down 21.87 tons to 394.59 tons. SAC data shows that member enterprises' steel inventories are at the average level [3][19] Group 7: Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost this week is around 2,770 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is 2,850 yuan/ton. The average billet cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,889 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the May 28th billet price of 2,900 yuan/ton, steel mills have an average profit of 11 yuan/ton [24] Group 8: Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices have been falling, and spot prices have followed suit. The basis has widened. The current price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3,120 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of Tangshan Qian'an billet is 2,920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from last week [3][26][27] Group 9: Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore is oscillating at a high level, and the rebar - to - iron ore ratio of the main contract remains low. With weak real - world demand for finished products, the ferrous metals market is expected to show limited performance [33] Group 10: Statistical Bureau Data - From January to April, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 10.3% and 23.8% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment widened by 0.4 percentage points compared to January - March, while the decline in new housing construction area narrowed by 0.6 percentage points [37] Group 11: Upcoming Important Events - May 29, 20:30: US Q1 real GDP quarterly revised value - May 30, 20:30: US April PCE - May 31, 09:30: China May PMI - June 2, 22:00: US May ISM manufacturing index - June 5, 20:15: Eurozone interest rate decision [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of black commodities rebounded from low levels, and the market repaired its pessimistic expectations. However, demand is entering the off - season, so the possibility of a continuous rebound is not strong. It is expected that prices still have room to fall. Given the changing market environment, it is advisable to short螺纹 at high prices. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread Supply - Mysteel's production this week increased by 30,000 tons to 2265,300 tons, with electric furnace production increasing by 10,900 tons and blast furnace production increasing by 19,100 tons. The SAC旬 - degree data shows that steel production is at a high level. Steel mill profits are considerable, and production is expected to remain at the current level. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in steel mill production and profits. [3][10] 3.2 Thread Demand - Apparent demand rebounded slightly this week but overall performance was weak. It is expected that demand will be under pressure in the third quarter, especially as it enters the off - season after the holiday. The capacity utilization rate of cement clinker has rebounded to a relatively high level, indicating some support from the infrastructure sector. [3][15] 3.3 Thread Steel Inventory - The total inventory of thread steel decreased slightly this week. The total inventory of thread steel decreased by 337,600 tons, with the steel mill inventory increasing by 32,800 tons and the social inventory decreasing by 304,800 tons. The SAC旬 - degree data shows that the steel inventory of member enterprises remains at the average level. Attention should be paid to the balance between production and demand. [3][23] 3.4 Thread Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost this week is around 2910 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is 2900 yuan/ton. The average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2902 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of 2980 yuan/ton for common billets on May 14th, the average profit per ton of steel mills is 78 yuan. [27] 3.5 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The spot price has increased. The price of Shanghai Zhongtian has increased by 40 yuan to 3240 yuan, and the price of Tangshan Qian'an steel billets has increased by 50 yuan to 2980 yuan. Futures prices have rebounded from low levels, and the basis has gradually converged. [29] 3.6 Futures Spread and Related Product Price Ratios - Iron ore remains strong, and the ratio of the main thread to iron ore contracts has weakened slightly. The real - world demand for finished products is weak, and it is expected that ferrous metals will not have stronger performance. [34] 3.7 Statistical Bureau - Related Data - From January to March, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 9.9% and 24.4% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment widened by 0.1 percentage points compared with January - February, and the decline in new housing construction area narrowed by 5.1 percentage points. [38]