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石化行业周报:OPEC+11月增产幅度较温和-20251009
China Post Securities· 2025-10-09 06:50
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - OPEC+ will increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, which is a relatively moderate increase. The petrochemical sector continues to adjust, with ongoing attention to the progress of eliminating outdated facilities and upgrading [2][5] - The oil and petrochemical index underperformed this week, declining by 0.38% compared to last week. In contrast, the engineering services sector within the oil and petrochemical industry performed the best, with an increase of 0.88% [5] - Oil prices have decreased, with an increase in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories [6][10] - In the polyester segment, the price of polyester filament has dropped while the price spread has increased. The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have decreased, and the operating rate of weaving machines has increased [14][19] - For olefins, the spot prices of sample polyolefins remain stable, and inventory levels are steady [21][22] Summary by Sections Oil Market - Oil prices have fallen, with Brent crude futures closing at $65.5 per barrel, a decrease of 7.2% compared to September 26 [7] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6,440 thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories rose by 496 thousand barrels [13] Polyester - The prices for polyester filament (POY, DTY, FDY) are 6,550, 7,750, and 6,700 yuan per ton, respectively, with price spreads increasing by 61 yuan per ton compared to September 26 [16] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 25.7, 29.5, and 18.8 days for FDY, DTY, and POY, respectively, with an increase in the operating rate of weaving machines [19] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) are 7,800 and 8,050 yuan per ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.64% for PE and no change for PP compared to September 26 [24] - The total inventory of polyolefins is 590,000 tons, which is a decrease from the previous period [24]