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石化行业周报:地缘缓解,原油回落-20250630
China Post Securities· 2025-06-30 05:23
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The current focus in the petrochemical sector is on crude oil prices, which are primarily influenced by geopolitical factors, although there is uncertainty regarding these developments. Additionally, the gradual approach to the consumption peak for refined oil may provide support for oil prices [2] - This week, due to a decline in crude oil prices, the petrochemical index underperformed relative to other sectors, closing at 2202.18 points, down 2.07% from the previous week. In contrast, other petrochemical sectors showed a positive performance with a 1.49% increase [5][2] - Crude oil prices have decreased, with U.S. crude oil inventories declining and refined oil inventories partially decreasing [6][10] - Polyester prices for polyester filament yarn have shown a stable increase, with a narrowing price spread. Inventory days for polyester filament yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have decreased, while the operating rate of weaving machines has declined [12][19] - For olefins, sample prices for polyethylene and polypropylene have slightly increased, while inventories have decreased during the week [21][24] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have decreased, with Brent crude futures and TTF natural gas futures down 11.6% and 18.2% respectively compared to last week [8] - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) totaled 1,230,719 thousand barrels, a decrease of 4,172 thousand barrels from the previous period [10] Polyester - The prices for polyester filament yarn (POY, DTY, FDY) are 7150, 8420, and 7450 yuan/ton respectively, with price spreads decreasing by 267, 197, and 247 yuan/ton compared to last week [14] - Inventory days for polyester filament yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 18.9, 25.3, and 17.2 days for FDY, DTY, and POY respectively, with the operating rate for polyester filament yarn at 90.6% [19] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene and polypropylene have increased by 1.04% and 0.62% respectively, while the total petrochemical inventory stands at 700,000 tons, down 40,000 tons from last week [24]