Market Sentiment Analysis - Since mid-December last year, A-share sentiment has been gradually rising, with a rapid increase since January, leading to a doubling of total trading volume and turnover rate from the lows [1] - The financing balance has increased at a rate similar to Q3 last year, but the financing balance as a percentage of circulating market value remains around 2.5%, and the proportion of financing purchases is about 11%, indicating no significant breakout from previous ranges [1] - There is a notable structural valuation differentiation in the market, with the valuation ratios of the CSI 500/1000 and CSI 300 reaching highs not seen since 2018, and technology growth sectors showing generally high valuations while consumer and financial sectors have lower valuation levels [1] - Despite the recent market uptrend, industrial capital reduction has not accelerated and remains at a moderate level, primarily concentrated in growth and manufacturing sectors [1] Polyester Filament Industry - Major filament manufacturers have decided to initiate a 15% production cut starting January 14 for one quarter, with the possibility of increasing the cut depending on market conditions [2] - As of January 16, the inventory days for mainstream POY in the filament industry are only 10 days, indicating a low level of stock; the weekly operating load for filaments is at 88.8%, down 1.4 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Domestic small and medium-sized direct-spun polyester filament enterprises are increasingly announcing shutdowns for the holiday period, which, combined with the production cuts, may lead to an operating load of around 71%-72% during the Spring Festival, marking the lowest level in nearly three years [2][3] - The peak of polyester filament capacity expansion has passed, with future new capacity mainly concentrated in major manufacturers like Tongkun and New Fengming [3] - Domestic demand is expected to gradually recover due to consumption stimulus policies, while external demand may maintain rapid growth due to factors like the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and India's cancellation of BIS certification [3] Profitability Outlook - The polyester filament industry is expected to maintain a relatively balanced supply-demand structure, allowing for good profitability through effective industry collaboration [3] - The planned large-scale production cuts by major filament manufacturers before and after the 2026 Spring Festival are anticipated to help keep inventories low, with expectations for demand peaks in March-April and overall price differentials for 2026 being promising [3]