July 24, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific A-Share Sentiment Rose on Several Positive Developments Sentiment improved on the back of policy signals regarding anti- involution and progress in US-China negotiations. We are constructive on the initiative's potential to enhance earnings growth and ROE over 12-24 months. We will keep an eye out for signs of short-term sentiment overheating. A-share investor sentiment improved vs. previous cycle: Weighted MSASI and simple MSASI improved by 10 ...

Investment Rating - The report advises a balanced portfolio approach, recommending high-quality, large-cap internet names in offshore markets and blue-chip consumer names in the A-share market [1][4]. Core Insights - A-share sentiment has decreased, with the weighted Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) dropping 13 percentage points to 70% and the simple MSASI falling 15 percentage points to 61% compared to the previous cutoff date [2][6]. - Average daily turnover (ADT) for ChiNext, A-shares, and Equity Futures has decreased by 18%, 17%, and 40% respectively, while ADT for northbound trading increased by 27% [2]. - Southbound net inflows have continued for 56 consecutive weeks, with net inflows of US$0.7 billion over April 17-23, bringing year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows to US$77.5 billion and US$21.8 billion respectively [3]. - Potential tariff de-escalation could benefit large-cap internet/tech, consumer, and healthcare sectors, with expectations that offshore markets may outperform onshore markets if such de-escalation occurs [4][13]. Summary by Sections A-Share Market Sentiment - The MSASI indicates a current sentiment of 70% (weighted) and 61% (simple), reflecting a notable decline in investor sentiment [6][8]. - The report highlights a slowdown in the downward momentum of consensus earnings estimate revisions since late November 2024 [2]. Trading Volume and Inflows - The report notes a significant drop in trading volumes across various segments, with ChiNext experiencing an 18% decline in ADT [2]. - Southbound trading has shown resilience with consistent net inflows, indicating ongoing interest in A-shares from international investors [3]. Tariff and Economic Outlook - The report discusses the implications of potential tariff reductions, suggesting that if realized, they could lead to improved performance in specific sectors [4][14]. - The analysts emphasize the importance of monitoring bilateral negotiations and government responses to evolving trade narratives [14].

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