1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash industry is in a downward cycle due to capacity expansion, facing "high supply and high inventory" pressure, and the market is difficult to break out of the bearish pattern. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities for the SA contract on rallies. The SA2605 contract may fluctuate in the range of [1150, 1300] yuan/ton in Q2, and short - selling on rallies within the range is advisable. However, there may be supply - side disturbances due to possible early summer maintenance in Q2, which may lead to short - term upward risks in the market [43]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Price and Market - Since the beginning of the year, the main soda ash contract has basically operated in the range of [1200, 1300] yuan/ton, with mainly band - type market trends. From the beginning of the year to mid - February, the soda ash futures price declined, dominated by the logic of supply surplus during the capacity expansion period. After mid - February, the price rebounded from the low point, boosted by rising energy costs and improved export expectations [8]. 3.2 Supply Side - Two production facilities put into operation in December last year (Yingcheng Xindu's 700,000 - ton combined soda plant and Yuanxing's second - phase 2.8 - million - ton natural soda capacity) are the main sources of increased supply in 2026. Since the beginning of the year, as new capacities have been gradually put into production, the upper limit of soda ash production has been continuously increasing [13]. - In Q2, on one hand, new capacities are still ramping up, and the upper limit of soda ash production may further increase; on the other hand, due to fundamental pressure, there may be a situation similar to last year where summer maintenance is advanced, which may cause supply - side disturbances [20]. 3.3 Production Profit and开工率 - Since the beginning of the year, the production profit of the ammonia - soda process has changed little, while the production profit of the combined - soda process has significantly recovered due to the sharp rise in ammonium chloride prices, driving up the operating rate of combined - soda enterprises [20]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Float Glass - In Q2, the production lines ignited in March will start producing glass, increasing the actual supply. There are still two production lines in the Shahe area waiting to be ignited. After the cold - repair peak from the end of last year to Q1 this year, the probability of short - term cold - repair for the remaining production lines is low. The downward space for the daily melting volume of float glass in production is limited, and the actual supply may increase from the low level [24]. 3.4.2 Photovoltaic Glass - In Q1, the supply of photovoltaic glass was stable with a slight decline, with both production line ignition and cold - repair. Since late March, the cold - repair progress of photovoltaic glass production lines has accelerated due to high inventory and losses. There may be more cold - repairs of small and medium - sized production lines with high inventory pressure, and the overall supply of photovoltaic glass is expected to continue to decline [26]. 3.4.3 Light Soda Ash - Benefiting from the rapid development of industries such as lithium carbonate and monosodium glutamate, and the inherent resilience of light soda ash downstream demand, the demand for light soda ash is expected to remain strong in Q2, showing a divergence from the demand for heavy soda ash [33]. 3.5 Import and Export - China's soda ash is mainly exported to Southeast Asia, South Korea, and Nigeria. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has limited impact on China's soda ash export business. Although the European natural gas price has risen significantly due to the conflict, the natural gas price in the United States, a major export destination, has remained stable. China's soda ash exports are expected to continue the prosperous situation of last year but are unlikely to achieve significant growth [39]. 3.6 Inventory - Since the beginning of the year, the total inventory of the soda ash industry has continued to increase. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers accumulated significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and has not been effectively reduced since then. Downstream glass factories hoarded a large amount of inventory when the soda ash price was low at the end of last year and are currently in the inventory digestion stage [41].