1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash industry is in a downward cycle due to capacity expansion, facing "high supply and high inventory" pressure, and the market is difficult to break out of the bearish pattern. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities for the SA contract on rallies. The SA2605 contract may fluctuate in the range of [1150, 1300] yuan/ton in Q2, and short - selling on rallies within the range is advisable. However, there may be supply - side disturbances due to possible early summer maintenance in Q2, which may lead to short - term upward risks in the market [43]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Price and Market - Since the beginning of the year, the main soda ash contract has basically operated in the range of [1200, 1300] yuan/ton, with mainly band - type market trends. From the beginning of the year to mid - February, the soda ash futures price declined, dominated by the logic of supply surplus during the capacity expansion period. After mid - February, the price rebounded from the low point, boosted by rising energy costs and improved export expectations [8]. 3.2 Supply Side - Two production facilities put into operation in December last year (Yingcheng Xindu's 700,000 - ton combined soda plant and Yuanxing's second - phase 2.8 - million - ton natural soda capacity) are the main sources of increased supply in 2026. Since the beginning of the year, as new capacities have been gradually put into production, the upper limit of soda ash production has been continuously increasing [13]. - In Q2, on one hand, new capacities are still ramping up, and the upper limit of soda ash production may further increase; on the other hand, due to fundamental pressure, there may be a situation similar to last year where summer maintenance is advanced, which may cause supply - side disturbances [20]. 3.3 Production Profit and开工率 - Since the beginning of the year, the production profit of the ammonia - soda process has changed little, while the production profit of the combined - soda process has significantly recovered due to the sharp rise in ammonium chloride prices, driving up the operating rate of combined - soda enterprises [20]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Float Glass - In Q2, the production lines ignited in March will start producing glass, increasing the actual supply. There are still two production lines in the Shahe area waiting to be ignited. After the cold - repair peak from the end of last year to Q1 this year, the probability of short - term cold - repair for the remaining production lines is low. The downward space for the daily melting volume of float glass in production is limited, and the actual supply may increase from the low level [24]. 3.4.2 Photovoltaic Glass - In Q1, the supply of photovoltaic glass was stable with a slight decline, with both production line ignition and cold - repair. Since late March, the cold - repair progress of photovoltaic glass production lines has accelerated due to high inventory and losses. There may be more cold - repairs of small and medium - sized production lines with high inventory pressure, and the overall supply of photovoltaic glass is expected to continue to decline [26]. 3.4.3 Light Soda Ash - Benefiting from the rapid development of industries such as lithium carbonate and monosodium glutamate, and the inherent resilience of light soda ash downstream demand, the demand for light soda ash is expected to remain strong in Q2, showing a divergence from the demand for heavy soda ash [33]. 3.5 Import and Export - China's soda ash is mainly exported to Southeast Asia, South Korea, and Nigeria. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has limited impact on China's soda ash export business. Although the European natural gas price has risen significantly due to the conflict, the natural gas price in the United States, a major export destination, has remained stable. China's soda ash exports are expected to continue the prosperous situation of last year but are unlikely to achieve significant growth [39]. 3.6 Inventory - Since the beginning of the year, the total inventory of the soda ash industry has continued to increase. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers accumulated significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and has not been effectively reduced since then. Downstream glass factories hoarded a large amount of inventory when the soda ash price was low at the end of last year and are currently in the inventory digestion stage [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include short - term and long - term expectations for glass, and the limited valuation elasticity of soda ash due to the excess expectation. The high inventory of glass in the middle stream needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended. The cost - raising logic may boost the overall valuation [1][2]. - The trading logic for the near - term is to focus on the changes in cold - repair and ignition expectations for glass and the cost - based price fluctuations for soda ash. For the long - term, attention should be paid to supply expectations, demand verification, and cost factors [3][7]. - The trend of glass and soda ash has a cost - raising expectation in the short - term, but the upside space is limited. The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before delivery, lacking clear fundamental drivers [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Glass**: In the short - term, there are expectations of seasonal demand return and accelerated cold - repair of supply. In the long - term, it is about macro - policy expectations. The daily melting of float glass has dropped to around 145,000 tons, but supply decline alone cannot drive prices independently. Middle - stream high inventory is a risk, and there are ignition expectations despite accelerated cold - repair [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation elasticity is limited due to the unchanged excess expectation. It can only follow the cost. Price movements depend on upstream inventory changes and supply or cost "stories" [2]. - **Reality**: The high inventory of glass in the middle stream needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended. The cost - raising logic due to overseas geopolitical issues may boost the overall valuation [2]. - **Trading Logic**: For the near - term, focus on cold - repair and ignition expectations for glass and cost - based price fluctuations for soda ash. For the long - term, pay attention to supply expectations, demand verification, and cost factors [3][7]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: There is a short - term cost - raising expectation, but the upside space is limited. Glass has weak demand, cold - repair and ignition expectations, and high middle - stream inventory. Soda ash is suppressed by high production, with limited price elasticity [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before delivery, lacking clear fundamental drivers [10]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass**: The spot prices of various glass products remained unchanged on March 29, 2026. The 05 - contract of glass increased by 0.48% to 1041 yuan/ton on March 27, 2026, while the 09 - contract decreased by 0.42% to 1179 yuan/ton. The daily production and sales in different regions showed fluctuations [13][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly unchanged on March 27, 2026. The 05 - contract of soda ash increased by 0.33% to 1229 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract increased by 0.15% to 1310 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: There is still room for positive feedback in the spot - futures market for both glass and soda ash when the market rises. The overall valuation of glass and soda ash is not high and may be driven by other sectors. There is an expectation of cost increase [16]. - **Negative Information**: No negative information is clearly stated in the report. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. Keep an eye on the cold - repair and ignition expectations of glass production lines, glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transactions [18][19][21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: The expectation of the 05 - contract of glass is unclear, with weak supply and demand. The near - term spot pressure is large, and the middle - stream inventory is high. There may be a cost - raising expectation in the long - term, but the demand is unclear [22]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: For glass, the 5 - 9 spread has narrowed due to accelerated cold - repair, and the 05 - contract is facing delivery pressure. For soda ash, it maintains a C - structure, and the long - term excess pattern remains unchanged [31]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural - gas production lines are in loss, the cost of petroleum - coke has increased significantly, and coal - gas production lines have a small profit [46]. - **Soda Ash**: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1200 - 1220 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 950 - 1000 yuan/ton [46]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 80,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand. Some glass products have good export performance [53]. - **Soda Ash**: The monthly average net export of soda ash remains high, accounting for about 6% of the apparent demand. The cumulative export from January to February 2026 was 401,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 112,800 tons, or 39.03% [53]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Glass**: In March, the cold - repair of float glass accelerated, and the daily melting dropped below 145,000 tons. There are still some cold - repair and ignition production lines to be realized, and the cold - repair rhythm is expected to be faster [57]. - **Soda Ash**: The current daily production of soda ash is at a high level, with a weekly production of over 750,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance and capacity of some soda - ash manufacturers [60]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Glass**: The middle - stream inventory of glass remains high, and the spot pressure persists. The downstream raw - sheet inventory has increased, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The demand is weak in reality [64]. - **Soda Ash**: The rigid demand for soda ash is moderately weak, and the middle and lower reaches mainly replenish inventory at low prices [76]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises is 73.622 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 814,000 heavy boxes, or 1.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The inventory days are 33.6 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous period. The middle - stream inventory remains high [89]. - **Soda Ash**: The total inventory of soda - ash manufacturers is 1.8519 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1900 tons. Among them, the light - soda inventory is 946,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,500 tons, and the heavy - soda inventory is 905,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the PVC market shifted from "weak reality" to "strong expectation", with the pricing anchor changing from "high inventory, weak real estate, and loose supply" to "cost increase, marginal contraction of ethylene - based production, and pre - positioned policy window". The price increase in March was driven by event - based revaluation and expectation front - running, rather than the typical "peak demand season". In April, PVC will enter a more rigorous reality - testing phase [1][3]. - The short - term domestic PVC market will continue to fluctuate widely. The market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. Whether the PVC price can maintain at the elevated level in March depends on the fulfillment of support factors such as high ethylene prices, low ethylene - based plant loads, declining factory inventories, and marginal decline in social inventories. If cost support weakens and inventory improvement fails to meet expectations, the risk of price retracement will increase [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In March, the PVC market's pricing anchor changed. Geopolitical conflicts drove up oil and ethylene prices, increasing the cost of ethylene - based PVC. The pre - export window before the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1st strengthened the order front - running logic, pushing PVC prices from a weak oscillation to a significant rebound [1][3]. - In the futures market, the PVC futures price rose rapidly in early March. The main contract increased from 4,792 yuan/ton at the end of February to 6,251 yuan/ton by March 23rd, with a maximum of 6,364 yuan/ton and a short - term cumulative increase of 30%. After a subsequent correction, it was still up 18% compared to the end - February price [3]. - The spot market followed the futures market. The mainstream spot price of East China SG - 5 increased from 4,730 yuan/ton at the end of February to 6,100 yuan/ton on March 23rd, and then adjusted to 5,500 yuan/ton by March 26th [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - In March, the overall PVC supply pressure remained, but the structural contraction began to affect marginal pricing. The overall capacity utilization rate of PVC producers was 80.12%, with the calcium carbide - based production at 84.71% (up 1.79% month - on - month and 2.09% year - on - year) and the ethylene - based production at 69.24% (down 8.36% month - on - month). The decline in ethylene - based production load signaled a shift to "marginal cost increase" for pricing [6][7]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - Real estate demand for PVC remained weak. National real estate data from January - February 2026 showed a decline in investment, new construction area, sales area, and sales volume. The price increase in March was due to cost increase, ethylene - based production load reduction, and the export window, rather than the full realization of peak demand. The export policy was an important factor in March's market, and the change in export rhythm after the cancellation of export tax rebates in April should be a key observation variable [8][9]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Inventory was a key constraint on the PVC market. Although the inventory level was still high in March, marginal improvement was observed. The market's positive pricing of PVC in March was based on the expectation of simultaneous inventory improvement and cost increase [10][11]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - In March, due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, international oil, naphtha, and ethylene prices soared. The cost of ethylene - based PVC increased significantly, resulting in a large cost - price inversion with the futures contract. The calcium carbide price rose moderately, and the cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased controllably, with a positive profit margin. The profit of calcium carbide - based production turned from loss to profit in early March and then narrowed, while the ethylene - based production's profit turned from profit to loss and worsened [12][13]. 3.2.5 International Market - In March, the marginal pricing of PVC was more directly affected by ethylene, naphtha, and ethylene - based plant loads. International events increased the cost of oil, gas, and ethylene, which was quickly transmitted to the marginal supply of PVC. Future PVC price fluctuations will depend more on international variables [14]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - In April, PVC will face a more rigorous reality - testing phase. The market is expected to oscillate. Support factors include high ethylene prices, low ethylene - based plant loads, declining factory inventories, and marginal decline in social inventories. Suppression factors include the end of the pre - export window, weak real estate demand, and high overall supply pressure. The market may shift from a rapid increase in March to a "high - level oscillation, waiting for reality verification" phase [18]. - Five variables should be tracked: Northeast Asian ethylene price, ethylene - based plant load, PVC factory inventory, social inventory, and export shipping rhythm after the cancellation of export tax rebates. Industry customers should conduct phased buy - hedging or rolling management based on order and raw material procurement rhythms, rather than simply extrapolating the March trend to the entire second quarter [19][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the overnight attack on Iranian energy facilities, the conflict shows an escalating trend. Crude oil and oil - chemical products are likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. The supply concerns of liquefied gas, methanol, and ethylene glycol are heating up again, and they are also likely to rise and difficult to fall before the conflict cools down [2]. - The supply contraction expectations of pure benzene, styrene, PX, PTA, PP, etc. are being realized, giving them short - term strong support, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [6][10][20]. - Synthetic rubber is supported by cost due to raw material reduction, and its price is likely to rise and difficult to fall [16]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is shrinking, making it bullish and difficult to fall in the short term [33]. - Plastic follows the cost - side drive of crude oil and the expectation of Asian refinery production cuts, and the end of the event means the peak of the market [35]. - The cost increase expectation and chemical sentiment resonance drive the soda ash market to strengthen in the first two weeks, but the over - supply situation restricts its upward space, and it is still likely to fall and difficult to rise in the medium term [40]. - PVC is likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term due to supply disturbances caused by geopolitical factors [41]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: The conflict between the US - Israel and Iran escalated overnight. After the attack on Iranian energy facilities, the probability of further escalation of the conflict increased. Although Trump expressed the hope of not launching more attacks on Iranian energy facilities, the market reaction was flat. The conflict shows no sign of cooling down, and crude oil and oil - chemical products are likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, there is an increase in positions and a long positive line, and the short - term support below moves up to the 710 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Benzene Ethylene - Logic: The load reduction of Asian petroleum benzene was obvious last week. The domestic pure benzene start - up rate dropped from 79% to 74% in two weeks, and the benzene ethylene start - up rate dropped by 2.3% to 71.79% in one week. The exports of benzene ethylene were not at a high level, and the port inventory started to decrease. The supply contraction expectation gave short - term strong support to pure benzene and benzene ethylene, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of benzene ethylene shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell, and the short - term support below is at the 9200 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [8]. Pure Benzene - Logic: Similar to benzene ethylene, the supply contraction expectation gave short - term strong support to pure benzene and benzene ethylene, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of pure benzene shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rose and then fell, and the short - term support below is at the 7270 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Rubber - Logic: Natural rubber is supported by the strength of synthetic rubber, but its own supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is necessary to verify the tapping enthusiasm at high prices after the tapping season starts [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of rubber shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it decreased in volume with a long negative line, breaking through the short - term support below the 16250 level. The short - term structure turns down, and the upper pressure is at the 16500 level. The strategy is to pay attention to the short - selling signal after the rebound fails to break through the pressure in the hourly cycle [13]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The conflict between the US - Israel and Iran has entered the third week. The raw material reduction has led domestic petrochemical plants to reduce production. The output of butadiene has started to decline, and the inventory has decreased significantly, supporting the synthetic rubber price from the cost side [16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of synthetic rubber shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell, and the short - term support below is at the 15000 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [16]. PX - Logic: The supply problem of naphtha raw materials has affected the supply of polyester PX and PTA. The start - up rate of PX dropped from 93.2% to 89.2% in two weeks, and the start - up rate of PTA dropped to 80%. The import expectation from South Korea also decreased. The supply tightening expectation gave short - term strong support to PX and PTA [20]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of PX shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term structure. Today, it rose and then fell, and the short - term support below is at the 9570 level. The strategy is to wait and see unilaterally in the hourly level [20]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the supply tightening expectation gave short - term strong support to PX and PTA [23]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of PTA shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell, and the short - term support below is at the 6720 level. The strategy is to wait and see unilaterally in the hourly cycle [23]. PP - Logic: The operating load of polyolefins has been continuously declining. The start - up rate of PP dropped from 75% to 70% in two weeks, and the start - up rate of PE dropped from 88% to 82% in two weeks. The supply contraction expectation gave short - term strong support to PX and PTA [27]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of PP shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased in volume, and the short - term support below is at the 8250 level. The strategy is to continue to wait and see in the hourly cycle [27]. Methanol - Logic: The expectation of a reduction in methanol imports from the Middle East is still fermenting. If the conflict cannot end before the end of March, there is a large expectation of a reduction in methanol imports. Currently, methanol is still supported by bullish sentiment [29]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term of methanol shows an upward structure. Today, it increased in volume with a long positive line, and the short - term support below is at the 2860 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle, and stop the loss of the previous 05P2400 put option [31]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The weekly start - up rate of ethylene glycol dropped to 66.7%, a 7.2% decline from the previous period. The inventory has entered a pattern of reduction, and combined with the spring maintenance of coal - chemical plants, the supply contraction makes ethylene glycol bullish and difficult to fall in the short term [33]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of EG shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased in volume with a long positive line, and the short - term support below is at the 4760 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. Plastic - Logic: It follows the cost - side drive of crude oil and the expectation of Asian refinery production cuts. The current market is a game of events, and the end of the event means the peak of the market [35]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of plastic shows an upward structure. Today, it increased in volume with a long positive line, and the short - term support below is at the 8350 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [35]. Soda Ash - Logic: The cost increase expectation and chemical sentiment resonance drive the soda ash market to strengthen in the first two weeks, but the over - supply situation restricts its upward space, and it is still likely to fall and difficult to rise in the medium term [40]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of soda ash shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - term upper pressure is at the 1265 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, and the stop - profit reference is at the 1265 level [40]. PVC - Logic: Although the real - estate demand is still weak year - on - year, due to the geopolitical influence, domestic ethylene - based plants have started to reduce production, and overseas chlor - alkali plants have also reduced their loads. The supply disturbances caused by geopolitics make PVC likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [41]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of PVC shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell, and the short - term support below is at the 5600 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The Sino-US Paris consultations did not mention soybeans, which dampened the market's expectations for China's purchase of US soybeans. Brazil's shipments have recovered, and US soybeans tumbled yesterday. Brazil's soybean harvest progress has reached 50%, and the sales progress is expected to be close to 50%. Brazil's land and water transportation prices rose yesterday. The recovery of Brazil's shipments has partially alleviated concerns about domestic arrivals. However, the market is still speculating on the tight supply of soybeans last year and in the spot market. Today, the spot basis of soybeans remains relatively strong, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market, and the 5 - 9 spread showing an upward trend. Overall, the war risk persists, and inflation expectations and rising costs support soybean prices. Currently, soybean prices are still in a historically low range, and the short - term sensitivity to positive news remains high. It is expected that the price fluctuations will intensify, and the trend will be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to international situation changes and the adjustment of the March USDA planting intention area report [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Daily - On March 17th, the Dalian basis of the soybean meal main contract was 380, down 29; the Tianjin basis was 310, down 19; the Rizhao basis was 210, down 19. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 250, in Dongguan it was 330, up 21; in Zhanjiang it was 250, up 21; in Fangcheng it was 280. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 54, up 8. The N5 - 9 spread was 47, up 13; the RM5 - 9 spread was 30, up 32 [4] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 891, and the spread of the main contract was 585, down 4. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.8489. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium and the import soybean gross profit on the disk are presented in the form of a chart [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - The inventory data of Chinese port soybeans and the inventory of major oil mills' soybeans in the country are presented in the form of a chart [6] 3.4开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - The soybean pressing volume and the operating rate of major oil mills in the country are presented in the form of a chart. The downstream提货量 (delivery volume) and downstream网公室 (not clear what this means, might be a typo) are also presented in the form of a chart [9] 3.5豆粕库存和饲料企业库存天数 (Soybean Meal Inventory and Feed Enterprise Inventory Days) - The inventory of major oil mills' soybean meal and the inventory days of feed enterprises are presented in the form of a chart [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran remains unresolved, and the Strait of Hormuz shows signs of partial opening, but its sustainability is uncertain. The supply crunch of domestic chemical raw materials continues, and the short - term energy and chemical sector is strong. Attention should be paid to the Trump administration's next move in the conflict [2]. - The short - term supply crisis strongly supports the crude oil market, and the core of the game is the progress of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [3]. - The supply contraction of pure benzene and styrene is expected to be realized, providing short - term strong support, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [6][8]. - Natural rubber is supported by the strength of synthetic rubber, and the supply - demand contradiction of natural rubber itself is not significant [11]. - Due to the reduction of raw materials, domestic petrochemical plants have reduced production, and the price of synthetic rubber is easy to rise and difficult to fall [15]. - The supply of PX and PTA is tightened, and they are short - term strong [19][22]. - The supply of PP and PE is tightened, and they are short - term strong [26]. - The import of methanol is expected to decrease significantly if the conflict does not end by the end of March, and it is currently supported by emotional factors [28]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is contracted, and it is short - term bullish [32]. - The price of plastics is driven by cost and the expectation of Asian refinery production reduction, and the end of the event and the reopening of the strait mean the peak of the market [34]. - The price of soda ash is driven by cost and chemical sentiment in the short term, but the long - term over - supply restricts the upside space [39]. - The supply of PVC is disturbed by geopolitical factors, and it is short - term easy to rise and difficult to fall [40][42]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: The US - Israel - Iran conflict has not improved, the Strait of Hormuz is mostly closed, and the oil production of Middle - Eastern Gulf countries has decreased by at least 10 million barrels per day, about 9% of the global supply. The short - term supply crisis strongly supports the crude oil market. The core of the game is the progress of the conflict [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of crude oil are in an upward trend. It fluctuates widely today, with short - term support at 610. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [3]. (2) Styrene - Logic: The production of Asian petroleum benzene decreased significantly last week. The domestic pure benzene start - up rate dropped from 79% to 74%, and the styrene start - up rate dropped by 2.3% to 71.79%. The supply contraction provides short - term strong support, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 9000. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [6]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: Similar to styrene, the supply contraction provides short - term strong support, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of pure benzene is in a downward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 7170. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [8]. (4) Rubber - Logic: Natural rubber is supported by the strength of synthetic rubber. The supply - demand contradiction of natural rubber itself is not significant, and the tapping enthusiasm needs to be verified after the tapping season [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of rubber are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 16250. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [11]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The US - Israel - Iran conflict is deadlocked. Due to the reduction of raw materials, domestic petrochemical plants have reduced production, and the price of synthetic rubber is easy to rise and difficult to fall [15]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of synthetic rubber are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 14300. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [15]. (6) PX - Logic: The supply of naphtha raw materials affects the supply of PX and PTA. The start - up rate of PX dropped from 93.2% to 89.2%, and the start - up rate of PTA dropped to 80%. The supply is tightened, and PX is short - term strong [19]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PX are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 9750. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [19]. (7) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the supply is tightened, and PTA is short - term strong [22]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PTA are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 6720. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [22]. (8) PP - Logic: The start - up rate of polyolefins has been declining. The start - up rate of PP dropped from 75% to 70%, and the start - up rate of PE dropped from 88% to 82%. The supply is tightened, and PP is short - term strong [26]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in an upward trend. It falls with reduced positions today, with short - term support at 8250. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [26]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The expectation of reduced methanol imports from the Middle East is still fermenting. If the conflict does not end by the end of March, there will be a significant reduction in imports. Currently, it is supported by emotional factors [28]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term structure of methanol is in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 2500. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see, and put options of 05P2400 can be gradually arranged (the premium does not exceed 3% of the total funds) [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The start - up rate of ethylene glycol dropped to 66.7%, a 7.2% month - on - month decrease. The inventory is in a destocking pattern, and the supply is contracted, so it is short - term bullish [32]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of ethylene glycol is in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 4600. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [32]. (11) Plastic - Logic: It follows the cost - end drive of crude oil and the expectation of Asian refinery production reduction. The end of the event and the reopening of the strait mean the peak of the market [34]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure of plastic is in an upward trend. It falls with reduced positions today, with short - term support at 8150. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [34]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: Driven by the cost increase expectation and chemical sentiment, the soda ash market strengthened in the previous two weeks. However, the over - supply restricts the upside space, and it is easy to fall and difficult to rise in the medium term [39]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of soda ash is in an upward trend. It falls with increased positions today, with short - term support at 1215. The hourly cycle strategy is to hold short positions, and the take - profit reference is 1280 [39]. (13) PVC - Logic: Although the real - estate demand is still weak, the domestic ethylene - based plants and overseas chlor - alkali plants have reduced production due to geopolitical factors, and the supply is disturbed, so it is short - term easy to rise and difficult to fall [40][42]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PVC are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 5530. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran remains tense, with the navigation obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz unresolved, leading to a risk of raw material supply interruption. Asian refineries, including those in China, have undergone varying degrees of maintenance and production cuts, resulting in a supply contraction expectation and cost - side support [2]. - The supply of raw material propane is tight, and the losses of PDH plant profits are deepening, increasing the expectation of PDH plant shutdowns. The demand side shows that downstream rigid demand is following up, and the return of some PP powder enterprises in Shandong has driven up demand. In the short - term, with the Strait of Hormuz not significantly unblocked, cost increases, and a tight supply - demand pattern, there is a risk of market fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 7,812 yuan/ton (+339), the spot price in East China is 8,700 yuan/ton (-175), and in North China is 8,325 yuan/ton (-475). The basis in East China is 888 yuan/ton (-514), and in Shandong is 513 yuan/ton (-814). The propylene operating rate is 73% (+1%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and Japanese naphtha CFR is 294 US dollars/ton (+65), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 19 US dollars/ton (-79), the import profit is -477 yuan/ton (-114), and the in - plant inventory is 44,640 tons (-330) [1]. - **Propylene downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 27% (+3.67%), with a production profit of -675 yuan/ton (-125); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 80% (+0%), with a production profit of -580 yuan/ton (-25); the operating rate of n - butanol is 86% (+1%), with a production profit of 1,627 yuan/ton (-105); the operating rate of octanol is 95% (-2%), with a production profit of 998 yuan/ton (+342); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 79% (-1%), with a production profit of 4,323 yuan/ton (+124); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 75% (-1%), with a production profit of 294 yuan/ton (+380); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 88% (+0%), with a production profit of 2,500 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran has not improved, and the risk of raw material supply interruption persists. Refineries in Asia, including those in China, have reduced production. Some refineries have already implemented production cuts, and more olefin enterprises may reduce production if the Middle East situation does not cool down [2]. - The supply of propane is tight, and PDH plant profits are in deeper losses, increasing the expectation of PDH plant shutdowns. The demand side shows that downstream rigid demand is following up, and the return of some PP powder enterprises in Shandong has driven up demand. In the short - term, there is a risk of market fluctuations [2]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices [3]. - **Inter - period**: None [3]. - **Inter - variety**: None [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, the market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production and demand and rapidly increasing inventory from a low level. Although the sharp rise in crude oil prices has briefly boosted market confidence, the market's demand expectations for this year are relatively weak, and the outlook for the fundamentals is pessimistic. In the short - term, the prices of black - series commodities are expected to be strong, and the futures prices are likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the market is entering the consumption peak season. The steel production is at a low level, and the iron - water production has declined significantly. The supply side has seen an increase in shipments, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The medium - term downward trend of the futures price may end [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the crude oil price remained strong after a spike and fall, and the prices of black - series commodities were short - term strong. The overall market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production and demand and increasing inventory. The downstream demand is expected to gradually start, but the market's demand expectations for this year are weak [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has broken through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and it is more likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the short term [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the spot prices of rebar decreased slightly while the spot price of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged. The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed different changes [2]. - **Production**: The total output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills remained stable last week. The output of rebar increased by 4.97% to 173.31 million tons, and the output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.75% to 301.11 million tons. The capacity utilization and operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased, and the output of rebar from electric - arc furnace steel mills increased by 44.70% to 68.66 million tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products increased by 8.29% to 1403.13 million tons, the social inventory of rebar increased by 12.33% to 637.75 million tons, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 6.78% to 381.61 million tons. The steel mill inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.27% to 548.87 million tons, the steel mill inventory of rebar increased by 2.19% to 237.93 million tons, and the steel mill inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.96% to 90.08 million tons [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.68% to 662.5 million tons, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 95.68% to 80.54 million tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 18.07% to 291.31 million tons [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The steel production is at a low level, and the iron - water production has declined significantly. The supply side has seen an increase in shipments, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the production costs on both the supply and demand sides [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude, think in terms of volatility, avoid chasing up or selling down. Try to go long with a light position on dips during the futures price correction [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the main DCE iron ore contract increased by 4.72% to 787.5 yuan/ton, and the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract increased by 4.73% to 103.74 US dollars/ton. The prices of various iron ore powders in ports also showed different changes [5]. - **Supply**: The Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 6.91% to 1552.2 million tons, and the Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased by 26.30% to 469.6 million tons. The arrival volume of iron ore in northern six ports increased by 41.80% to 1464.5 million tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory increased by 0.15% to 17117.86 million tons, the port trade ore inventory increased by 0.59% to 11780.21 million tons, and the sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills decreased by 3.96% to 1314.02 million tons [5]. 3.3. Industry News - From January 20 to 26, 2026, the Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Supervision Administration inspected Huixian Longtian Coal Industry Co., Ltd. and found major accident hazards, and ordered it to suspend production for rectification for 2 days [8]. - Due to the recent situation in the Strait of Hormuz, several iron ore cargo ships originally destined for the Middle East have changed their routes and headed for China, with four ship redirection events reported [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, have led to concerns about the supply of raw materials such as crude oil and LPG. This has caused domestic olefin plants to potentially reduce their production, leading to an expected decrease in supply and an increase in polyolefin prices [3]. - For PE, in 2025, China imported 1.13 million tons of PE from Iran, accounting for 8.4%. The supply from other Middle - Eastern countries is also mainly non - standard products. The price increase may be led by non - standard products HD and LD, and then affect the supply and consumption of HD, LLD, and LD. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances will continue to drive up plastic prices [3]. - For PP, the impact of the Iranian situation on overseas PP supply is relatively small. The price increase is mainly driven by cost factors. The deepening loss of PDH production profit may lead to an extended peak of PDH maintenance, and the expected reduction in supply due to the defensive reduction of olefin plants also supports the PP price [4]. - The recommended strategy is to cautiously buy LLDPE and PP on dips for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7,200 yuan/ton (+209), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7,223 yuan/ton (+225), the LL North China spot price is 7,000 yuan/ton (+350), the LL East China spot price is 7,100 yuan/ton (+300), the PP East China spot price is 7,030 yuan/ton (+330), the LL North China basis is - 200 yuan/ton (+141), the LL East China basis is - 100 yuan/ton (+91), and the PP East China basis is - 193 yuan/ton (+105) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-0.4%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is - 681.6 yuan/ton (-126.8), the PP oil - based production profit is - 1,021.6 yuan/ton (-126.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 2,156.9 yuan/ton (-1,506.5) [1]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is 3.4 yuan/ton (+260.0), the PP import profit is - 385.5 yuan/ton (+70.0), and the PP export profit is - 68.5 US dollars/ton (-9.0) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 10.1% (-14.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 24.7% (+4.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 29.3% (+5.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 47.7% (+4.9%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the supply of raw materials. Although the planned maintenance of PE upstream in March - April is still relatively small, attention should be paid to the extent of production reduction due to raw material supply. The inventory of upstream and intermediate traders has accumulated rapidly after the Spring Festival. The downstream of PE is gradually resuming work slowly, and the current demand is limited. In the short term, geopolitical disturbances will continue to drive up plastic prices [3]. - **PP**: The impact of the Iranian situation on overseas PP supply is small. The price increase is mainly driven by cost. The deepening loss of PDH production profit may lead to an extended peak of PDH maintenance, and the expected reduction in supply due to the defensive reduction of olefin plants also supports the PP price. The downstream is gradually resuming work slowly, and the inventory of intermediate traders has accumulated [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously buy LLDPE and PP on dips for hedging. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided. - **Cross - variety**: No strategy provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., suggesting investors to pay attention to position control before the Spring Festival due to potential geopolitical disturbances and market uncertainties [2][9][10]. - Different commodities show different trends, such as some being in a range - bound market, some having upward or downward pressure, and some being affected by factors like supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: A pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The cost end is worried about potential supply risks due to unstable geopolitical situations, and the valuation is upward - revised. The fundamentals are weak in February, but the unilateral price is supported and runs strongly. Investors should manage positions [9]. - **PTA**: The downside space may be limited, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short positions can be taken when the processing fee is above 450. The terminal demand has different situations, and the polyester start - up rate is expected to change. Multiple sets of device maintenance plans boost the monthly spread. Investors should pay attention to the 5100 yuan/ton support level and manage positions [10]. - **MEG**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. The basis and monthly spread are in a reverse - set operation. The ethylene glycol start - up rate remains stable, but the demand side has large - scale shutdowns, resulting in large inventory accumulation pressure in February and difficult inventory digestion after the festival. Investors should manage positions [10]. Rubber - It is in a shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased. The order situation of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises shows different trends [11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a pre - holiday shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased, and the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has increased [14][15]. LLDPE - The internal and external markets are close to a standstill, and the funds are risk - averse, showing a shock market. The raw material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the downstream demand has different situations. The supply - side maintenance plan has decreased, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [17][18]. PP - The C3 raw material performs strongly, but the valuation repair is limited. The cost end of crude oil and propane prices continues to be strong, and the demand side has limited support. The PDH profit is at a low level, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [20][21]. Caustic Soda - The cost is rising, and the valuation is being repaired. The previous short - selling logic of caustic soda profit may be challenged. The demand side is weak, and the supply - side reduction and load - reduction expectations are increasing after March. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions in the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and gradually build long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [25]. Pulp - It is in a shock operation. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing before the festival, with few spot quotations and stagnant downstream procurement. The supply - demand fundamentals have no actual changes during the holiday, and the price is expected to end stably. Attention should be paid to the changes in port inventory and the impact of the macro - market on the pulp market [31][32]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream procurement volume decreases, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. The market demand declines, and the overall trading is light [35][36]. Methanol - It is in a shock operation. The spot price shows a regional adjustment situation, and the port inventory has a small increase. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within a limited range. The macro - level is in the process of negotiation between Iran and the United States, and the fundamental driving force is neutral to downward. The upper and lower price limits are affected by factors such as MTO profit and coal - based cost [41][42]. Urea - It is in a pre - holiday shock with support. The support comes from the improvement of spot transactions driven by pre - holiday order collection and the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the festival. The fundamental pressure level of the 05 contract is around 1830 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [45][46]. Styrene - It is in a high - level shock. The absolute price is in a high - level shock with the withdrawal of funds. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival and the opportunity of EB profit contraction and PX - EB [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with stable device operation and high supply. The downstream demand procurement is basically completed before the holiday, and the trading is light. The price may remain weakly stable in the short term [50]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes. The industrial chain start - up rate and shipping volume have different trends [52]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is stable, and the basis converges. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes [52]. PVC - It is in a weakly shock operation. The domestic spot market trading is dull, and the supply - demand is weak. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and it is expected to be weakly shocked before the festival. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may still trade delivery pressure and high forward premium [60][61]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has risen, and it may turn to a relatively strong trend in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market is still at a low level [64]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a shock market. The futures market has price and position changes. The spot market freight rate is stable before the festival. Geopolitical factors and shipping company policies have an impact on the market. Different contracts have different investment strategies [66][74][75]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The futures price fluctuates upward, the spot price is stable, and the downstream is mostly on holiday [77][78]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate upward, and the factory price is partially adjusted upward. The market trading atmosphere is average [77][78]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see before the festival. The spot market price is stable, the scale paper mills are stably producing, some small and medium - sized paper mills are shut down, and the dealer's order - receiving situation is not good [80][81]. Pure Benzene - It is in a strong shock. The futures price has increased, the spot price has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices and the price trend [84][85].