Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price is expected to continue the low - level volatile operation situation. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2601 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is shock - weak. The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of a weakly stable supply - demand pattern and low - level volatile steel prices. The calculation method of price fluctuations and the definitions of shock - strong/weak are also provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar runs weakly and stably. Short - process steel mills have reduced production, and the weekly rebar output has decreased month - on - month, but the decline is not large and it is still at a relatively high level within the year. Coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure has not been relieved. Meanwhile, the rebar demand is weak, high - frequency indicators are running at a low level, and the downstream industries have not improved, with poor performance in the peak season, which continues to put pressure on steel prices. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the rebar fundamentals are weak, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. With the relatively favorable peak - season expectation and cost increase, the steel price is expected to continue the low - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by the Steel Union today [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the poor supply - demand pattern and the steel price is searching for the bottom weakly [2]. - In the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, industrial contradictions have accumulated, inventory has continued to increase, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. It is expected that rebar will continue the trend of searching for the bottom weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating weakly. The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the poor supply - demand pattern and the steel price is searching for the bottom weakly [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The production of construction steel mills is active, and the rebar output has rebounded to the highest level this year, increasing the supply pressure. The demand for rebar has improved, with high - frequency indicators rising from the low level, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the improvement space is limited due to the lack of improvement in downstream industries. In the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, industrial contradictions have accumulated, inventory has continued to increase, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the rising cost and the expectation of the peak season [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the rebar 2510 contract is expected to continue its oscillatory bottom - seeking trend. It advises to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the accumulation of industrial contradictions that put downward pressure on steel prices [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is also oscillatory and weak. It is recommended to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions leading to downward pressure on steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices declined slightly with average trading volume. Rebar production has risen to a new high for the year, increasing supply pressure. Although rebar demand has improved, the improvement's sustainability is questionable as the downstream situation has not improved. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, inventory is rising, and steel prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost increases and expectations of peak - season demand. The report expects rebar to continue its oscillatory bottom - seeking trend and advises to monitor demand performance [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.48%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar in the off - season remain poor, and the steel price is under pressure. However, the cost increase limits the downward space. In the short term, it is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil declined in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.92%. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows good resilience, which supports the price. But the fundamentals have not improved under the high - supply pattern. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are relatively positive factors. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.64%. The demand for iron ore shows certain resilience, which supports the price. However, the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high, with weak upward driving force. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to July, China completed 394.6 billion person - times of cross - regional population movement, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The traffic fixed - asset investment reached 1.95 trillion yuan. In July, the volume of commercial freight reached 497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the volume of commercial freight reached 33 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [6]. - In 2025, the national plan is to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to July, 19,800 old urban residential areas started renovation. Six regions including Hebei, Liaoning, etc. had a start - up rate of over 90% [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet decreased, while the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged. The prices of 61.5% PB powder decreased, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained stable. The sea freight, SGX swap, and Platts Index also showed certain changes [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,111 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,349 yuan, with a decline of 0.92%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 775.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.64%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased [11]. 4. Related Charts - The charts show the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, the production situation of steel mills, etc., including weekly changes, total inventory, and seasonal trends [13][18][26]. 5. Future Market Judgment - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, with continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly output decreased, but the profit per ton is acceptable, and the sustainability of production reduction needs to be tracked. The demand is at a low level, and the steel price is under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply increased, and the demand showed good resilience. However, the high - supply pattern has not improved the fundamentals. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are positive factors, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [33]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The demand showed certain resilience, but the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [34].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is rated as 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) outlook [4][5]. 2) Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is expected to experience short - term strong and volatile trends. The impact of liquid chlorine on cost and supply is crucial. If substantial production cuts or load reductions occur, a bullish view can be taken [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price is 2531, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong is 810, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 123, and the base difference is provided on July 9, 2025 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda closed at 810 yuan/ton today, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. The purchase price of liquid caustic soda by major downstream enterprises has been raised, and due to the subsidy of liquid chlorine, the operating load of regional enterprises has changed, resulting in a decrease in supply and an increase in the price of liquid caustic soda [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is mainly due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices, increasing the possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda. The short - term spot price rebound is due to low prices stimulating phased replenishment demand. - In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The previously shut - down plants in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high. - On the demand side, non - aluminum demand support is weak, and the caustic soda inventory of alumina is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish at low prices is strong. - In terms of cost, although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine led to an increase in caustic soda costs. Overall, due to the impact of liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation is being repaired. The key is to focus on the impact of liquid chlorine on caustic soda supply. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Recent short - term drivers for caustic soda have significantly slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices. The possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda caused by liquid chlorine disturbances in the future has increased. In the short term, the spot price has rebounded due to low prices stimulating the market's phased replenishment demand, but the sustainability of replenishment may be limited [3]. - In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The previously maintained units in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high [3]. - On the demand side, the support from non - aluminum demand is weak, and the alumina inventory of caustic soda is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish at low prices is strong. Although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline in liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [3]. - Affected by liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation is repaired under the condition of rising costs. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of liquid chlorine on the supply of caustic soda. If there are substantial production cuts or load reductions, a bullish view can be taken [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2380, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 770, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong was converted to the futures price of 2406, and the basis was 26 [1]. Spot News - On July 7, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine at Shandong Xinfa decreased by 150, with an ex - factory price of - 450 yuan, and the liquid chlorine plan for the next day was reported [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The short - term drivers for caustic soda have slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded. The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the replenishment may not be sustainable. The supply pressure is high, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina inventory is high, the export support is good, and the cost has increased due to the decline in liquid chlorine [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4][5]

Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, with early gains followed by a decline, and continued to oscillate in the night session. The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to U.S. tariff policies, leading to persistent market concerns and a weakening dollar index, which briefly fell below 99 [1] - Supply and demand dynamics indicate limited impact from the Peru copper mine incident, with a tight supply situation persisting and lower smelting and processing fees. Domestic consumption is supported by seasonal demand, and inventory trends are declining, although medium-term demand expectations remain cautious due to recession fears affecting prices [1] - The price difference between COMEX and LME remains high, and while short-term tariff impacts are easing, medium-term uncertainties persist. With holidays approaching, market sentiment is cautious, and copper prices are expected to continue in a wide range of fluctuations [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices showed slight strength in the morning but retreated in the night session, resulting in narrow fluctuations. Market concerns over trade conflicts have diminished in the short term, but U.S.-China negotiations have not progressed smoothly, and tariff impacts continue [1] - The domestic policy environment has not provided unexpected increases, leading to market caution. The spot price of alumina remains stable, with expectations of production cuts, but overcapacity remains unchanged, and optimistic supply from ore persists, creating clear upward pressure [1] - Supply constraints for aluminum remain, with slow production growth. Short-term demand is supported by seasonal factors, and inventory is declining, but medium-term macroeconomic concerns persist. Overall, the overcapacity situation in alumina remains unchanged, and with costs potentially decreasing, upward price pressure continues, leading to cautious sentiment as holidays approach [1] Group 3: Nickel Market - The nickel market is experiencing range-bound fluctuations with high volatility risks. Supply-side factors include an extended rainy season in Indonesia, which supports nickel ore prices, while high nickel pig iron costs limit downward price potential. Intermediate product supply is ample, and refined nickel production capacity is expanding, resulting in high inventory levels [1] - On the demand side, the stainless steel peak season is coming to an end, putting pressure on terminal demand. Although there is a rebound in new energy demand, the weak market share of ternary products limits incremental demand for nickel [1] - Overall, the market faces a surplus situation, and cost pressures are rising due to Indonesian policy disturbances. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with supply-side factors being the primary short-term influence. The Indonesian PNBP policy will gradually manifest during the May Day period, leading to high volatility risks in nickel prices, and new orders are advised to be on hold for the time being [1]