投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 27 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪转弱，钢矿震荡回落 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.48%日跌幅，量增仓缩，移仓换月 中。现阶段，供需双弱局面下淡季螺纹基本面表现依旧不佳，钢价继续 承压运行，相对利好则是成本抬升，下行空间受限，短期利空因素主导 下预计钢价延续震荡偏弱运行态势，关注需求变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡下行，录得 0.92%日跌幅，量增仓缩，移仓换 月中。目前来看，热卷需求韧性表现良好，给予价格支撑，而高供应格 局下基本面并未好转，相对利好则成本抬升与限产扰动提振，预计热卷 价格延续震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.64%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，矿石需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑，但基本面并未实质性改善，且 估值相对偏高，上行驱动不强，多空因素博弈下预计矿价维持高位震荡 运行态势，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z00116 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is rated as 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) outlook [4][5]. 2) Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is expected to experience short - term strong and volatile trends. The impact of liquid chlorine on cost and supply is crucial. If substantial production cuts or load reductions occur, a bullish view can be taken [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price is 2531, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong is 810, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 123, and the base difference is provided on July 9, 2025 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda closed at 810 yuan/ton today, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. The purchase price of liquid caustic soda by major downstream enterprises has been raised, and due to the subsidy of liquid chlorine, the operating load of regional enterprises has changed, resulting in a decrease in supply and an increase in the price of liquid caustic soda [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is mainly due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices, increasing the possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda. The short - term spot price rebound is due to low prices stimulating phased replenishment demand. - In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The previously shut - down plants in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high. - On the demand side, non - aluminum demand support is weak, and the caustic soda inventory of alumina is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish at low prices is strong. - In terms of cost, although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine led to an increase in caustic soda costs. Overall, due to the impact of liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation is being repaired. The key is to focus on the impact of liquid chlorine on caustic soda supply. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Recent short - term drivers for caustic soda have significantly slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices. The possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda caused by liquid chlorine disturbances in the future has increased. In the short term, the spot price has rebounded due to low prices stimulating the market's phased replenishment demand, but the sustainability of replenishment may be limited [3]. - In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The previously maintained units in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high [3]. - On the demand side, the support from non - aluminum demand is weak, and the alumina inventory of caustic soda is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish at low prices is strong. Although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline in liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [3]. - Affected by liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation is repaired under the condition of rising costs. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of liquid chlorine on the supply of caustic soda. If there are substantial production cuts or load reductions, a bullish view can be taken [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2380, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 770, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong was converted to the futures price of 2406, and the basis was 26 [1]. Spot News - On July 7, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine at Shandong Xinfa decreased by 150, with an ex - factory price of - 450 yuan, and the liquid chlorine plan for the next day was reported [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The short - term drivers for caustic soda have slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded. The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the replenishment may not be sustainable. The supply pressure is high, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina inventory is high, the export support is good, and the cost has increased due to the decline in liquid chlorine [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4][5]

【沪铜：延续宽幅震荡格局】昨日铜价早盘先下后上，夜盘震荡运行。宏观上，美国关税政策不确定性 大，市场担忧情绪难消，美元指数震荡走弱，一度跌破 99 关口。供需上，秘鲁铜矿事件影响有限，矿 端偏紧格局持续，冶炼加工费走低。国内消费旺季支撑需求，库存趋势向下，但中期需求预期谨慎，衰 退担忧拖累价格，COMEX 与 LME价差维持高位，关税扰动持续。综合看，关税短期影响缓和，中期 不确定性难消，节假日临近，市场情绪谨慎，铜价预计宽幅震荡。【沪铝：预计延续震荡】昨日氧化铝 价格早盘小幅走强，夜盘回落，沪铝价格窄幅震荡。宏观方面，市场对贸易冲突短期担忧减弱，但中美 谈判未顺利展开，关税影响持续。国内政策面无超预期增量，市场谨慎。氧化铝现货价格持平，减产预 期存但产能过剩未变，矿石供给乐观，上方压力明确。沪铝供给约束仍在，产量增长慢。短期需求受旺 季支撑，库存向下，中期宏观扰动担忧难消。综合看，氧化铝过剩格局未变，叠加成本或降，价格上方 压力持续，沪铝基本面增量驱动有限，节假日临近，内盘更谨慎，预计震荡。【沪镍：区间震荡，波动 风险高】供应方面，印尼雨季延长，镍矿价格有支撑，镍铁成本高，价格下方空间有限，中间品供应充 裕 ...