1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., suggesting investors to pay attention to position control before the Spring Festival due to potential geopolitical disturbances and market uncertainties [2][9][10]. - Different commodities show different trends, such as some being in a range - bound market, some having upward or downward pressure, and some being affected by factors like supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: A pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The cost end is worried about potential supply risks due to unstable geopolitical situations, and the valuation is upward - revised. The fundamentals are weak in February, but the unilateral price is supported and runs strongly. Investors should manage positions [9]. - **PTA**: The downside space may be limited, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short positions can be taken when the processing fee is above 450. The terminal demand has different situations, and the polyester start - up rate is expected to change. Multiple sets of device maintenance plans boost the monthly spread. Investors should pay attention to the 5100 yuan/ton support level and manage positions [10]. - **MEG**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. The basis and monthly spread are in a reverse - set operation. The ethylene glycol start - up rate remains stable, but the demand side has large - scale shutdowns, resulting in large inventory accumulation pressure in February and difficult inventory digestion after the festival. Investors should manage positions [10]. Rubber - It is in a shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased. The order situation of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises shows different trends [11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a pre - holiday shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased, and the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has increased [14][15]. LLDPE - The internal and external markets are close to a standstill, and the funds are risk - averse, showing a shock market. The raw material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the downstream demand has different situations. The supply - side maintenance plan has decreased, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [17][18]. PP - The C3 raw material performs strongly, but the valuation repair is limited. The cost end of crude oil and propane prices continues to be strong, and the demand side has limited support. The PDH profit is at a low level, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [20][21]. Caustic Soda - The cost is rising, and the valuation is being repaired. The previous short - selling logic of caustic soda profit may be challenged. The demand side is weak, and the supply - side reduction and load - reduction expectations are increasing after March. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions in the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and gradually build long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [25]. Pulp - It is in a shock operation. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing before the festival, with few spot quotations and stagnant downstream procurement. The supply - demand fundamentals have no actual changes during the holiday, and the price is expected to end stably. Attention should be paid to the changes in port inventory and the impact of the macro - market on the pulp market [31][32]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream procurement volume decreases, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. The market demand declines, and the overall trading is light [35][36]. Methanol - It is in a shock operation. The spot price shows a regional adjustment situation, and the port inventory has a small increase. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within a limited range. The macro - level is in the process of negotiation between Iran and the United States, and the fundamental driving force is neutral to downward. The upper and lower price limits are affected by factors such as MTO profit and coal - based cost [41][42]. Urea - It is in a pre - holiday shock with support. The support comes from the improvement of spot transactions driven by pre - holiday order collection and the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the festival. The fundamental pressure level of the 05 contract is around 1830 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [45][46]. Styrene - It is in a high - level shock. The absolute price is in a high - level shock with the withdrawal of funds. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival and the opportunity of EB profit contraction and PX - EB [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with stable device operation and high supply. The downstream demand procurement is basically completed before the holiday, and the trading is light. The price may remain weakly stable in the short term [50]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes. The industrial chain start - up rate and shipping volume have different trends [52]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is stable, and the basis converges. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes [52]. PVC - It is in a weakly shock operation. The domestic spot market trading is dull, and the supply - demand is weak. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and it is expected to be weakly shocked before the festival. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may still trade delivery pressure and high forward premium [60][61]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has risen, and it may turn to a relatively strong trend in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market is still at a low level [64]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a shock market. The futures market has price and position changes. The spot market freight rate is stable before the festival. Geopolitical factors and shipping company policies have an impact on the market. Different contracts have different investment strategies [66][74][75]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The futures price fluctuates upward, the spot price is stable, and the downstream is mostly on holiday [77][78]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate upward, and the factory price is partially adjusted upward. The market trading atmosphere is average [77][78]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see before the festival. The spot market price is stable, the scale paper mills are stably producing, some small and medium - sized paper mills are shut down, and the dealer's order - receiving situation is not good [80][81]. Pure Benzene - It is in a strong shock. The futures price has increased, the spot price has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices and the price trend [84][85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with various commodities having different outlooks, including oscillations, weakening, strengthening, and stable trends. For example, some commodities like rubber are expected to be oscillating and strengthening, while others like PVC are likely to experience weak oscillations [2][14][67]. - Geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran negotiations and the situation in the Middle East have an impact on the energy and chemical markets, causing uncertainties in prices and supply - demand dynamics [6][21]. - The demand and supply fundamentals of different commodities vary. For instance, in the PX - PTA - MEG industrial chain, the supply and demand patterns of each product are affected by factors like device maintenance, production rates, and downstream demand [12][13]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: It is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The monthly spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation. In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. The PX operating rate rises, and the PXN processing fee is continuously compressed. It is recommended to short the PTA processing fee when it is above 450 [12]. - **PTA**: The downside space may be limited, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short the PTA processing fee when it is above 450. The terminal demand has mixed performance, and the polyester operating rate is expected to pick up in March. Multiple devices have announced maintenance plans [12]. - **MEG**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. Conduct reverse arbitrage operations on the basis and monthly spread. The supply has increased this week, but overseas supply is expected to decrease in March. The demand side has seen large - scale shutdowns of polyester, resulting in significant inventory accumulation pressure in February [13]. Rubber - It is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The futures prices of rubber have increased, and the spot prices of various rubber varieties have also risen slightly. The inventory in the Qingdao area has increased, and the semi - steel tire enterprises are in different production stages [14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in an oscillating state. The futures prices, trading volumes, and positions of synthetic rubber have changed. The inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises has decreased, and the butadiene port inventory has also declined [17][18]. LLDPE - The spot trading has stagnated, and due to capital risk - aversion, it is in an oscillating market. The raw material oil price has stabilized after a decline, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the downstream demand has mixed performance. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the destocking rate after the holiday [20][21]. PP - The C3 raw materials are relatively strong, but the valuation repair is limited. The cost side has oscillations, the supply side has no new production before the 2605 contract, and the demand side has limited support. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [23][24]. Caustic Soda - The cost has increased, and the valuation is being repaired. The previous logic of short - selling caustic soda profits may be challenged. The demand side has a weak pattern, and the supply side may see production cuts and load reduction after March. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions in the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and gradually build long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [28]. Pulp - It is in an oscillating state. The trading in the pulp market is light, and the downstream paper mills' purchasing activities have basically stopped. The market lacks driving factors, and attention should be paid to port inventory data and macro - market impacts [33][34]. Glass - The price of the original glass sheet is stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream procurement volume has decreased, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. The market trading is light [40][41]. Methanol - It is in an oscillating state. The methanol spot price index has adjusted regionally. The port inventory has decreased, but the overall inventory is still at a relatively high level. The MTO fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to be limited in both upward and downward directions [46][47]. Urea - It is oscillating with support. The support comes from the improvement in spot trading driven by pre - holiday order collection and the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the Spring Festival. The 05 contract has a fundamental pressure level at around 1830 yuan/ton and a support level at around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [49][50]. Styrene - It is in a high - level oscillating state. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, which stimulates the return of zombie production capacity. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival, and the pure benzene pattern is expected to improve after the second quarter [51][52]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, the enterprise devices are operating stably, the supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand has basically completed pre - holiday stocking. The price may remain weakly stable in the short term [53][54]. LPG - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward [57]. Propylene - The spot price is stable, and the basis is converging. The futures prices, trading volumes, and positions of LPG and propylene have changed, and the industrial chain operating rates have also fluctuated [58]. PVC - It is in a weakly oscillating state. The PVC spot market is stable, but the supply - demand is weak, and the export atmosphere has weakened. The industry is still accumulating inventory. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may continue to be under pressure before the holiday [65][66]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the short - term volatility is decreasing. The low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened in the night session, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is still at a low level [68]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in an oscillating state. The futures prices of the container freight index (European line) have declined, and the spot market freight rate is stable before the holiday. The 2604 contract has a weak supply - demand balance in March - April, and the 2610 contract has a reference pressure level. It is recommended to wait and see for now [70][78]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Both short - fiber and bottle - chip are in a short - term oscillating state. The short - fiber futures are oscillating strongly, but the downstream is on holiday, and the trading volume is small. The bottle - chip factory has raised the quotation, but the market trading atmosphere is average [81][82]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. The prices of offset printing paper in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable. The large - scale paper mills are producing stably, some small and medium - sized paper mills have shut down, and the market is on holiday [84][85]. Pure Benzene - It is in a strongly oscillating state. The futures prices of pure benzene have increased slightly, and the spot prices have decreased slightly. The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the trading volume in Shandong has been reported [88][89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have expanded and volatility has intensified. The asphalt futures market has followed the fluctuations of crude oil. The demand in various regions has gradually weakened with the cooling of the weather and the approaching of the Spring Festival. However, supported by low inventory and low supply, the spot prices in various regions have remained basically stable, and the supply-demand imbalance in the off - season is becoming more apparent. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material shortage and cost increase in asphalt production [4]. - The trading strategies are as follows: for single - side trading, expect high - level fluctuations and consider going long on BU2606 at low prices; for arbitrage, pay attention to the spread between going long on BU and going short on LU; for options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Geopolitical risks lead to increased volatility in the asphalt market, which follows crude oil prices. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventory and supply support stable spot prices. There are concerns about future raw material shortages and cost increases [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading: high - level fluctuations, go long on BU2606 at low prices; Arbitrage: focus on the spread of going long on BU and going short on LU; Options: wait - and - see [6]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - **Southern Demand and Refinery Price Support**: There is still demand in the South, leading some refineries to support prices. This week, the asphalt price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions increased by 5 - 115 yuan/ton. The cost of crude oil and the asphalt futures market are performing well, and there is some rush - work demand in the South. Low refinery operating rates are beneficial for social inventory sales [12]. - **Stable Spot Prices and Rising Futures Prices**: Geopolitical instability makes the crude oil cost fluctuate widely. Chinese refineries are seeking alternative raw materials, leading to an increase in feedstock costs. As of February 6, the theoretical processing profit of asphalt refineries was - 78.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.6 yuan/ton from last week. This week, the asphalt futures price rose in a volatile manner, while the spot market price remained stable [15]. - **Slight Decline in Asphalt Operating Rate**: The overall asphalt operating rate decreased slightly. Different regions had different changes in operating rates due to factors such as production adjustments in individual refineries [17][18]. - **Low Refinery Inventory**: The refinery inventory remained at a low level. The inventory in different regions changed due to factors such as production, demand, and contract delivery [20][21]. - **Increased Social Inventory**: Social inventory increased steadily due to winter storage resource warehousing. However, there was still some rush - work demand in the South, which affected the local inventory level [23]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking - **Industrial Chain Data**: It includes data on spot and futures prices, spreads, and profits. For example, on February 6, 2026, the closing price of the asphalt main contract was 3386 yuan/ton, and the Brent 15:00 closing price was 68.36 US dollars/barrel. The operating rate of refineries was 31.62%, the refinery inventory rate was 23.95%, and the social inventory rate was 25.63% [26].

2026年02月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，月差偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：区间震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260209 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡承压 | 6 | | LLDPE：进口窗口缩窄，节前偏震荡市 | 8 | | PP：估值修复有限，出口周签单下滑 | 9 | | 烧碱：成本抬升，估值低位 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260209 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：高位震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 | 20 | | 丙烯：供需维持偏紧，上行驱动转弱 | 20 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：窄幅调整，短期弱势暂缓 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差继续下探 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 25 | | 短纤：短期震荡市2026 ...

烧碱：低位震荡，未来成本抬升预期强 PVC：偏弱震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2026年2月8日 | 供应 | 中国10万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为87.8%，较上周环比+0.1% | | --- | --- | | | 氧化铝方面，本周国内检修式压产频繁，运行产能弹性波动，整体供应形势尚未发生根本性改变，对价格支撑仍旧不足，不排除仍有其他 | | 需求 | 氧化铝企业在2月份出现阶段性生产波动的可能，预计主要影响范围仍集中在山西与河南区域，以及山东个别高成本企业。非铝需求当前 | | | 维持刚需，面临淡季开工下滑。从烧碱出口方面看，出口订单较少，下游囤货意愿较弱。 | | | 市场做空烧碱利润的核心逻辑是液氯偏强，烧碱成本下滑，未到现金流成本厂家不减产，因而高产量、高库存格局持续。然而该逻辑在后 期将受到挑战，主要因液氯的短期强势格局在4月份之后（出口退税导致的抢出口结束）或难以持续。 | | | 从基本面看，烧碱高库存导致现货弱势在春节前难逆转。需求端，氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变，减产预期压制对烧碱的囤货，不过 | | 观点 | 后期也有大规 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation. In February - March, as infrastructure projects gradually resume work and demand picks up, against the background of low asphalt inventory, low - cost raw material inventory will be gradually digested, and the transaction price of new raw materials with a premium will rise. The market may experience a resonance of tight supply and warming demand, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips in the unilateral market, and to wait and see on arbitrage and options [6][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Introduction and Market Overview - **Market Review**: In January, asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil costs. There were also independent contradictions such as the shortage of Venezuelan raw materials and rising costs. On January 3, the situation in Venezuela developed into a conflict. On the 5th, the asphalt futures opened higher and then declined. In mid - January, the Iran conflict escalated, driving up crude oil costs, and asphalt prices oscillated at a high level. The shortage of raw materials was priced in, and the overall cost of raw material premiums increased. In the domestic market, low refinery loads and inventories supported spot prices [5][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Crude oil is in a wide - range oscillation. The short - term main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation. In February - March, demand will pick up, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral: Oscillate strongly, go long on dips and not chase the rise; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [7][40]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In January, asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil costs and had independent contradictions. In the domestic market, low refinery loads and inventories supported spot prices. At the beginning of the year, it was the seasonal off - season for demand. In the north, demand was basically stagnant due to low temperatures, while in the south, there was some rush - work demand, which was gradually weakening. It was expected that domestic refineries' low - cost raw material inventory could last for 1 - 2 months, and the raw material premium was rising [10]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - In 2026, the estimated asphalt production in January - February was about 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons (+4%). Different refineries had different production changes. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in February was about 1.16 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. Although the Spring Festival and raw material supply would limit production, some refineries' production resumption and stable raw material supply would support the overall production [14]. - In 2025, the total domestic asphalt production was 28.468 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.992 million tons (+12%). The total import was 3.928 million tons, an increase of 465,000 tons (+13.4%) compared with 2024 [15][18]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - In January 2026, domestic asphalt demand was in the seasonal off - season, with a slight month - on - month decline and obvious regional differentiation. In the south, rush - work demand supported the market, while in the north, demand was mainly for winter storage. In February, demand would further decline. Refinery shipments were at a medium level, and terminal demand decreased. The operating rates of road modified asphalt and the utilization rates of relevant capacities also declined [26][27][28]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation - In January 2026, the total asphalt inventory was at an extremely low level compared with the same period. The total inventory decreased by 60,000 tons (-4%) month - on - month to about 1.28 million tons and decreased by 720,000 tons (-36%) year - on - year. Social inventory gradually accumulated, and refinery inventory remained low. The cost increased due to geopolitical conflicts, the raw material premium rose, and the asphalt processing profit decreased significantly. The basis also changed in different regions [31][33]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Raw Materials**: Geopolitical turmoil continued, and crude oil costs oscillated widely. The expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply was basically priced in, and the near - term cost premium increased. There was no short - term concern about supply shortages [40]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The short - term main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips due to the possible resonance of tight supply and warming demand [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral: Oscillate strongly, go long on dips and not chase the rise; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [40].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the conflicting expectations of the secondary market and the industry regarding Indonesian nickel policies. The key to breaking the situation lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter, especially the quota policy. It is recommended to consider options trading and focus on structural opportunities [4][5]. - Stainless steel prices are also expected to fluctuate widely. The cost center has shifted upward due to factors such as nickel - iron price increases, but the supply - demand fundamentals do not support high - level chasing. Attention should be paid to Indonesian nickel policy news, policy implementation, and secondary - market fund outflows before the Spring Festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs News and Policy - related Events - Quota event: In January 2026, Indonesian officials' statements on nickel - ore quotas were inconsistent. The 2024 - 2025 quota exceeded actual smelting demand, and the 2026 quota is under review. If the 2.6 - billion - ton quota is implemented, it may lead to smelter production cuts and change the supply - demand outlook. There is a divergence in expectations between the secondary market and the industry [1]. - Associated minerals event: Indonesia plans to include associated minerals such as cobalt in the nickel - ore pricing and taxation system. If implemented, it may increase the cost of smelting by about 5% - 10%, but the impact on nickel costs will be limited if the cost can be passed on [2]. - Illegal fine event: Multiple Indonesian mining companies are facing potential fines of about IDR 80.2 trillion for illegal land occupation. The final amount may be lower, and if fines are imposed, they may be indirectly passed on to ore prices, increasing smelting costs [2]. - Other events: In early 2026, Vale temporarily suspended its nickel - mining operations but later resumed them after obtaining the 2026 mining quota. This may indicate Indonesia's preference for hydrometallurgical projects [3]. - Market news: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain products, China has implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia plans to revise the nickel - ore benchmark price formula, and there are plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel - ore production target [8][9]. Market Quotes and Analysis - Nickel: The spot fundamentals of nickel are weak, with over - supply pressure and the expectation of low - cost hydrometallurgical project commissioning. The secondary market expects a cyclical shift in Indonesian policies. In the short - term, nickel prices will fluctuate due to the confrontation between different types of funds. Unilateral trading is difficult, and options and structural opportunities are recommended [4][5]. - Stainless steel: Uncertainties in Indonesian policies may weaken short - sellers' confidence. The cost of stainless steel has increased due to the rise in nickel - iron prices, but the supply - demand fundamentals do not support high - level chasing. The price will also fluctuate widely [6]. Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: On January 15, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 102 tons to 60,587 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 942 tons to 285,732 tons [7]. - New energy: On January 16, the inventory days of SMM's nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines increased slightly month - on - month. The precursor and ternary material inventories also increased slightly on January 15 [7]. - Nickel - iron to stainless steel: On January 15, the SMM nickel - iron industry - chain inventory decreased by 2% month - on - month to 131,000 metal tons. The stainless - steel factory inventory in December increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and the social inventory on January 15 decreased week - on - week [7]. Key Data Tracking - Futures: The closing prices, trading volumes, and other data of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures are provided, including price changes compared to previous periods [11]. - Industrial chain: Data on various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industrial chains are presented, such as the prices of 1 imported nickel, high - nickel pig iron, stainless - steel products, and battery - grade nickel sulfate, along with their price changes [11].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an industrial silicon daily report dated November 18, 2025, provided by the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The closing price of Si2601 was 9,080 yuan/ton, with a 0.11% increase. The trading volume was 271,811 lots, and the open interest was 251,549 lots, with a net increase of 247 lots [4] - The spot price remained stable. The price range of 553 was 9,100 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and that of 421 was 9,750 - 9,950 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - The supply and demand of industrial silicon both decreased, and the cost increase supported the price. The production in the southwest production area was in the process of reduction, with the weekly output gradually dropping below 90,000 tons [4] - Organic silicon enterprises planned to jointly cut production by 30%, which would reduce the monthly demand for industrial silicon by more than 30,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of polysilicon continued to decline slightly, and the weekly output in the second week of November dropped to 29,000 tons [4] - The electricity price in the southwest region would increase during the dry season, and the recent strengthening of petroleum coke also increased cost support. The price of 2601 was at a discount to the spot price, with limited downward space, and the market would mainly fluctuate within a range [4] Group 4: Market News - On November 17, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 44,022 lots, a net decrease of 1,323 lots from the previous trading day [4] - On November 18, an organic silicon industry controlling - shareholder meeting would be held to determine the production - cut target. Most organic silicon manufacturers were in a state of suspension of quotation and sealing of orders [4] - TBEA's industrial silicon project was in full - production. From January to September 2025, affected by factors such as the low - price operation of industrial silicon and weak downstream demand, the overall performance of the industrial silicon industry was under pressure, and the company's project had not yet achieved profitability. The company had put the supporting source - network - load - storage project into use and would take measures to improve efficiency and economic benefits [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side is tightening with rising costs, providing some support for silicon prices. However, the demand side remains weak, with downstream buyers mainly making rigid purchases, limiting the upside space for silicon prices. It is expected that the short - term silicon price will remain in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [3] - For polysilicon, there is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". Spot transactions of silicon materials are under pressure. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, and investors with long positions should protect their profits. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - The price of petroleum coke has risen slightly, while the prices of silica and electrodes have remained stable. As the southwest production area enters the flat - dry water period, the power cost has increased significantly. [3] - In October, the average profit of industrial silicon 553 was - 917 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 112 yuan/ton, and the average profit of 421 was - 564 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 101 yuan/ton. [38] 3.1.2 Supply - Sichuan has entered the flat - water period with higher electricity prices, and Yunnan has entered the dry - water period. Factories in these two regions have expanded their production suspension scope due to increased costs and no obvious upward drive for industrial silicon prices. The output in the northwest region also decreased slightly last week, and the overall supply shows a contracting trend. It is expected that the output in November will drop to less than 400,000 tons, a decrease of about 12%. [3] - On the week of November 14, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises decreased by 6 compared with the previous week. [39] 3.1.3 Demand - The production of polysilicon is expected to decline, the organic silicon industry has a relatively consistent expectation of production reduction, and the silicon - aluminum alloy has no production increase or decrease plan with stable operation. [3] 3.1.4 Inventory - Except for some silicon enterprises in the southwest that have reduced production, most silicon enterprises are in normal production. Due to the relatively low price, the silicon enterprises' willingness to ship is low, and the inventory of silicon enterprises continues to accumulate. [3] 3.1.5 Market Outlook - It is expected that the short - term silicon price will maintain a range - bound pattern, with an operating range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro sentiment and the start - up situation of the supply side. [3] 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - Last week's polysilicon output was 26,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 200 tons. As of November 13, the polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons. In October, the polysilicon output was 134,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with September. In November, some manufacturers started to reduce production, and the monthly output may decline to about 120,000 tons. [69] 3.2.2 Demand - The terminal installation rush in the first half of the year over - drafted part of the demand in the second half of the year. The number of domestic bidding projects has decreased, and overseas demand has declined. The component side is under great pressure. With the increase in costs, there is an expectation of price increase for components, but the downstream acceptance is not high. Some component factories have reduced their start - up, and it is expected that the output this month will decline by about 2GW. [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of November 13, the total polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.42GW. As of November 14, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 8,120 lots. [3] 3.2.4 Market Outlook - There is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". Spot transactions of silicon materials are under pressure. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, and investors with long positions should protect their profits. Continued attention should be paid to the platform launch and the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. [3] 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Supply - In October, China's DMC start - up rate was 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54 percentage points, and the DMC output was 209,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 600 tons. Recently, the previously overhauled devices in Yunnan and Jiangxi have gradually resumed production, and the supply shows an increasing trend. [101] 3.3.2 Price - As of November 14, the average price of DMC was 25,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.87%; the average price of 107 rubber was 12,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.52%; the average price of silicone oil was 13,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.53%. [108] 3.3.3 Market Outlook - The industry has reached a consensus on production reduction, and the current inventory pressure is not large, so the price has increased. Future attention should be paid to the results of industry meeting consultations. [108] 3.4 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Start - up Rate - On the week of November 13, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy was 59.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 percentage points, and the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 60.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. [116] 3.4.2 Price - As of November 14, the average price of ADC12 was 21,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.93%; the average price of A356 was 22,300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. [119] 3.5 Inventory - As of November 13, the industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 546,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,000 tons; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 172,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 600 tons. As of November 14, the number of registered warehouse receipts on the exchange was 45,345 lots, equivalent to 226,700 tons of spot, and the number of warehouse receipts continued to decrease. [130]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are experiencing a short - term rebound due to rising costs, and the PF - PR spread is widening [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber (PF)**: The price of short - fiber 2511 decreased by 4 to 6142, short - fiber 2512 increased by 24 to 6160, and short - fiber 2601 increased by 110 to 6188. PF11 - 12 decreased by 28 to - 18, PF12 - 01 decreased by 86 to - 28, and the PF主力基差 decreased by 9 to 155. The short - fiber主力持仓量 increased by 35,800 to 199,910, and the short - fiber主力成交量 increased by 1875 to 202,860. The short - fiber华东现货价格 increased by 15 to 6,315, and the short - fiber产销率 decreased by 61% to 77% [1] - **Bottle - chip (PR)**: The price of bottle - chip 2511 increased by 32 to 5678, bottle - chip 2512 increased by 36 to 5666, and bottle - chip 2601 increased by 28 to 5628. PR11 - 12 decreased by 4 to 12, PR12 - 01 increased by 8 to 38, and the PR主力基差 decreased by 6 to 34. The bottle - chip主力持仓量 increased by 1223 to 40,951, and the bottle - chip主力成交量 decreased by 15,657 to 41,452. The bottle - chip华东现货价格 increased by 30 to 5700, and the bottle - chip华南现货价格 increased by 20 to 5740 [1] 3.2 Spot News - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber futures continued to rise but with a narrowing increase. Factory quotes remained stable with reduced discounts, and discounts from traders and futures - cash traders also decreased. The average factory sales - to - production ratio was 77%. Some factories producing primary three - dimensional hollow and low - melting - point short - fibers raised their quotes by 50 - 100 yuan/ton due to cost increases [2] - **Bottle - chip**: Upstream raw material futures continued to rise, and polyester bottle - chip factory quotes mostly increased by 10 - 50 yuan. The market trading volume was light, with orders from October to December mostly traded at 5620 - 5740 yuan/ton ex - factory, a small amount slightly lower at 5580 - 5600 yuan/ton ex - factory, and a small amount slightly higher at 5800 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip on the reporting day's daytime session of the main contract futures price fluctuations was both 1, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]