热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源及有色组 昨日大幅下跌主要受情绪面影响，夜盘有色、贵金属板块大幅下滑，叠加多晶硅"反内卷"到"反垄断"情 绪的转变，市场对未来行业自律性减产及收储平台设立的预期有所改变，导致多晶硅出现跌停。目前市 场消息扰动较多，但各种消息的真实性仍有待证实。 基本面方面，目前供给仍持续过剩，尽管12月行业减产，但效果不达预期，1月预计多晶硅产量仍超需 求，叠加正处光伏市场淡季，终端需求始终乏力，下游企业库存充裕，对高价货源认可度低，采购减 少，市场实质性需求萎靡，供应压力仍存始终是当前多晶硅市场的根本矛盾。 风险提示：持续关注政策导向，硅料成本端情况以及库存释放压力。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 免责声明： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保 证。本报 告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。在不同时期，本公司可能会 发出与本报告所载意 见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状 态。本公司对本报告所含信息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is showing signs of recovery as the impact of real estate and macro debt on the sector has diminished, with some companies finding growth opportunities through overseas expansion, market penetration, renovation projects, and technological materials [1]. Group 1: Cement Sector - The cement sector's profitability is primarily driven by overseas operations, particularly in regions like Africa, where companies such as Huaxin Cement are performing well [1]. - Domestic demand and prices have weakened compared to Q2, but the decline in demand growth rate and absolute gross profit per ton suggest that 2024 may represent a bottoming out for the industry [1]. - The focus on limiting overproduction remains crucial for improving supply-demand dynamics, and shareholder returns are expected to improve due to industry equity incentives [1]. Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - There is a noticeable divergence in revenue growth rates among different sub-sectors and companies within the consumer building materials industry, driven by the concentrated impact of real estate and local debt on demand [2]. - Companies are exploring new revenue paths through overseas expansion, market penetration, and renovation projects, with price recovery and structural upgrades in the paint and waterproofing sectors leading the way [2]. - Cost optimization through personnel and expense management continues to enhance profitability, while policy catalysts for consumer building materials still have room for growth [2]. Group 3: Glass and Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is experiencing dual differentiation in production and sales, with larger companies maintaining significantly better performance amid price wars among smaller firms [3]. - The profitability in the fiberglass sector is driven by structural demand in wind power yarn and electronic cloth, with expectations for price recovery in coarse yarn by Q4 2025 [3]. - The glass sector is facing a stalemate in supply and demand, with prices nearing a bottom; however, the photovoltaic glass segment is seeing a turnaround as leading companies quickly return to profitability due to industry self-discipline in production cuts [3].