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美银证券:上调香港交易所日均成交额预测 目标价维持520港元 重申“买入”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 03:30
Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the average daily trading volume forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) from HKD 2,400 billion, 2,600 billion, and 2,600 billion for 2025 to 2027, to HKD 2,600 billion, 2,700 billion, and 2,700 billion respectively, while lowering net investment income forecasts by 5% to 7% due to a low interest rate environment, and raising earnings forecasts by 1% to 2%, maintaining a target price of HKD 520 and reiterating a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - The expected profit for HKEX in the first three quarters of this year is projected to reach HKD 12.9 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 39% [1] - The average daily trading amount for the third quarter reached HKD 286 billion, setting a historical high [1] - Net investment income is expected to be affected by fluctuations in Hong Kong interbank offered rates (HIBOR), with a lagged impact likely to manifest in the third quarter [1] Group 2 - Profit growth for HKEX from 2026 to 2027 is expected to slow from 24% in 2025 to 8%, unless there is a significant increase in total market capitalization [1] - Relying solely on trading volume growth may not be sufficient to drive revenue [1] - Derivative products are anticipated to become a key growth engine for HKEX [1] Group 3 - Competition between Hong Kong IPOs and Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges is expected to intensify, as mainland China places greater emphasis on new technology sectors and may implement incentive policies to retain key enterprises for domestic listings [1]
特朗普为扩大关税对象瞄准“衍生品”
日经中文网· 2025-06-26 02:47
Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is expanding the scope of tariffs on various products, including white goods, which are now subject to a 50% tariff due to their classification as "derivative products" of steel and aluminum [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - Starting June 23, the Trump administration imposed a 50% tariff on white goods such as washing machines, dryers, refrigerators, dishwashers, and microwaves [2]. - White goods are classified as "derivative products" of steel and aluminum, leading to tariffs based on their metal content [3]. - Approximately 20% of imported refrigerators in the U.S. come from Mexico, and 10% from South Korea, with over 20% of certain products imported from China [3]. Group 2: Impact on Imports and Prices - The cumulative tariff burden on products from China could approach 100%, which may not be fully absorbed by companies and could lead to increased retail prices [3]. - The Trump administration has previously expanded the list of products subject to steel and aluminum tariffs, including beer cans in April [3]. Group 3: Government's Stance and Future Implications - The U.S. government has not clearly defined the relationship between the newly taxed products and national security, despite the tariffs being justified on those grounds [3]. - The nature of "derivative products" has changed under the second Trump administration, indicating a stronger intent to protect domestic industries through expanded tariffs [3][4]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce has begun accepting applications for additional product categories to be included under the steel and aluminum tariffs, suggesting a proactive approach to expanding tariff applications [4]. Group 4: Concerns Over Future Tariffs - There are concerns that future tariffs could extend to other sectors, such as semiconductors, potentially including everyday consumer electronics like smartphones and personal computers [5]. - The South Korean government has expressed concerns to the U.S. Department of Commerce, advocating for the exclusion of daily consumer goods from tariff applications [5].