Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market is centered around the Middle East situation, with the main logic being the stagflation expectation caused by rising energy prices. As the conflict lasts longer than expected and escalates, the trading logic has shifted from inflation concerns to recession fears. Precious metals showed good performance on Friday under the support of the safe - haven attribute after the previous selling pressure was released. Due to the chaotic information on the US - Iran conflict, asset prices fluctuate frequently and passively, making trading difficult. Precious metals are expected to show a weak and volatile trend. Before a real agreement is reached, there is still a risk of the war escalating in some form. Gold is in an upward channel on the daily - line cycle from 2023 to the present, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the channel at $3900 - 4000. The gold volatility index GVZ is still at a high level (99.6% quantile), and the short - term volatility of gold is large, suitable for short - term speculation rather than allocation. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see in the short term [4]. - In the medium - term, regardless of the outcome of the US - Iran conflict, the energy price center is likely to rise, increasing the US imported inflation pressure, disrupting the Fed's interest - rate cut environment, and delaying the rate - cut rhythm, which will put short - term pressure on precious metals. However, considering the US stock market, debt repayment pressure, and private - credit market pressure, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year is low. As the core anchor for gold pricing, real interest rates have room to fall, which will support gold. After a previous sharp unilateral rise, the US - Iran conflict has led to a significant decline in risk appetite, causing gold to be sold as the primary liquid asset. The market is likely to enter a four - month shock - consolidation phase to complete valuation repair [4]. - In the long - term, the outcome of the US - Iran conflict will affect the market's pricing of gold from the perspective of the US comprehensive strength assessment. If the US fails to obtain control of the Strait of Hormuz in the US - Iran peace talks, the global perception of the US strength will be re - evaluated, and the trend of de - dollarization will continue. The core support logic for precious metals has not fundamentally changed, and long - term factors such as global order reconstruction, high geopolitical uncertainty, and global monetary system reconstruction still exist [7]. - Silver, platinum, and palladium are more like beta versions of gold from a financial perspective. Their explosive growth in the past year was mainly due to investment demand and will continue to follow gold price fluctuations. As the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the global economy deepens, economic uncertainty increases, and industrial demand expectations decline, which will affect the price levels of silver, platinum, and palladium from an industrial perspective [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - influencing Factors - The report mentions data on the US federal fund target rate, US Treasury yields and spreads, US Treasury real yields and inflation expectations, and policy interest rates and Treasury yields of major economies, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [15][18][21][24]. 3.2 ETF持仓跟踪 - Gold and silver ETF holdings data are provided. For example, on March 27, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF held 1052.7 tons with no change, and the SLV silver ETF held 15409.46 tons with no change. Data sources are from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [30]. - Information on the scale of China's commodity - based gold ETF holdings is also mentioned, with data from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [34]. 3.3 Exchange Inventories - Gold and silver exchange inventory data are presented, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [37][42]. 3.4 Domestic and Foreign Futures - Spot Price Differences - Information on domestic and foreign futures - spot price differences is provided, with data from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [50]. 3.5 Precious Metal Ratios - Data on precious metal ratios are given, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [57]. 3.6 Gold ETF Volatility Index - The gold ETF volatility index (GVZ) is a key indicator to measure the market's expectation of the gold price fluctuation in the next 30 days, calculated based on the option prices of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). When GVZ breaks through 30 (historical high range), it indicates a significant increase in gold price volatility, and leverage should be reduced and positions controlled. On March 27, 2026, the implied volatility of the Shanghai gold at - the - money option was 34.66%, and its quantiles in the past one - year, three - year, and since 2020 were 93.62%, 97.88%, and 98.58% respectively. The implied volatility of the Shanghai silver at - the - money option was 72.12%, and its quantiles in the past one - year and three - year were 83.66% and 94.56% respectively. Data sources are from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [65][67][70].