钱诚天眼：6股争王，2月24日牛妖股风云录（一） 今天是2026年2月24日，马年第一个交易日，A股以一种近乎"脱缰"的姿态狂奔。三大指数半日涨幅均 超1%，成交量更是较前一日暴增3074亿，市场仿佛被注入了强心剂。在看似普涨的狂欢中，真正的猎 手关注的不是那些已经高高在上的明星，而是那些于中低位突然暴动、脱颖而出的"牛妖股"。它们或许 不是全场最耀眼的，但却是爆发力最强的，是未来"牛妖王"最有力的竞争者。 一、今日A股全景：由守转攻，资源为王 2026年的春季行情，在今天呈现出极为清晰的脉络。盘面上，资金的风险偏好发生了显著转向。 一方面，以石油、黄金、化工为代表的资源周期股全线大涨，这是宏观叙事的胜利。美伊局势的剑拔弩 张、特朗普关税政策的阴云不散，共同推高了全球对于滞胀的预期，资源品成了资金最好的避风港。中 曼石油、湖南白银的涨停，宣告了资源股从配角走向舞台中央。 另一方面，AI硬件端并未因资源股的吸血而崩塌，反而走出了独立的强势行情。长飞光纤的历史新 高、天孚通信的大涨，说明产业趋势的力量同样强大。市场不再是单一主线的独舞，而是形成了"资源 （通胀）+科技（成长）"双轮驱动的健康格局。影视院线、部分A ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance in gold-related assets, with the China Gold ETF (518850) rising by 3.95% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) increasing by 5.85% as of 10:50 AM on February 24 [1] - The overseas precious metals market experienced an overall upward trend during the Spring Festival, with New York gold prices rising from around $5000 to above $5200, driven by geopolitical tensions and tariff policy disruptions [1] - Dongwu Securities believes that the narrative of "de-dollarization" remains difficult to disprove in the medium to long term, indicating that gold is still in an upward range [1] Group 2 - Concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit have been raised due to the failure of expected tariff revenues, alongside a significant decline in fourth-quarter GDP growth, which was notably below market expectations [1] - The rising expectations of stagflation have benefited precious metals, which are seen as inflation hedges [1] - The management and custody fees for the China Gold ETF (518850) and Gold Stock ETF (159562) are combined at a low rate of 0.2%, making it more cost-effective for investors to participate in the gold market [1]

近期，国际黄金价格接连突破历史关口，国内现货金价同步走高，昨日现货黄金甚至突破5300美元/盎 司，而资本市场上黄金股更是连续暴涨，这也引发了各方人士的高度关注。 长期以来，黄金定价遵循着以"实际利率"为核心的经典范式。然而近年来，金价走势却与传统框架背道 而驰：美联储开启激进加息周期，实际利率大幅转正，美元一度走强，按传统逻辑应严重压制金价；然 而黄金仅在初期短暂承压后，便逆势上行且屡创新高。这种背离，标志着市场对黄金定价逻辑的深刻转 变。 事实上，黄金作为一种无利息、无主权信用背书的实物资产，其价格持续强势上涨的背后，实则是全球 金融市场对宏观环境不确定性的集中定价——所谓"盛世古董，乱世黄金"，在当前全球格局下，"做多 黄金"已与"做多不确定性"形成精准呼应；而每一轮的金价攀升，很可能都是市场对地缘冲突、货币信 用、财政可持续性及资产定价体系等领域风险的集体预警。 一、地缘局势风险：短期脉冲与长期叙事 黄金的避险属性，是其穿越千年经济周期、成为全球公认安全资产的核心根基。不同于股票、债券、法 定货币等品种，黄金的价值不依赖于任何政府、企业的信用承诺，也不受单一经济体货币政策的直接管 控。在信用货币体系下 ...

Core Insights - The gold market experienced a record-breaking surge in Q3 2025, with total demand increasing by 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tons, and value demand soaring by 44% to a historic $146 billion [2][4]. - Year-to-date, total gold demand reached 3,717 tons, with a value exceeding $384 billion, reflecting a 41% year-on-year increase [2]. Investment Demand - Investment demand, driven by ETFs and gold bars and coins, accounted for a significant portion of the gold market, with global investment demand reaching 537 tons in Q3, a 47% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The surge in investment is attributed to "certainty anxiety," with geopolitical instability and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts driving investors towards gold as a safe asset [4][6]. - The "FOMO effect" (Fear of Missing Out) has also played a role, as rising gold prices attract more investors, creating a positive feedback loop [4]. Central Bank Purchases - Central banks globally net purchased 220 tons of gold in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 10% year-on-year rise [6][9]. - This reflects a long-term strategic shift towards gold, with emerging market central banks actively increasing their gold reserves [7][9]. - Notable purchases included Kazakhstan (18 tons), Brazil (15 tons), and China (5 tons), indicating a trend of "de-dollarization" among central banks [7][9]. Jewelry Consumption - In contrast to investment and central bank demand, global gold jewelry consumption fell by 19% year-on-year to 371 tons in Q3, marking the worst performance for the third quarter since 2020 [10]. - High gold prices have impacted purchasing power, particularly in major markets like India and China, where demand has significantly declined [10][11]. - Despite the drop in volume, the value of jewelry consumption increased by 13% to $41 billion, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards higher-value products [10][11]. Supply Side - Global gold supply grew by 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tons in Q3, with mine production reaching a record high of 977 tons [12]. - However, uncertainties in mining operations and lower-than-expected recycled gold supply pose challenges to future production [13][14]. - The combination of surging demand and moderate supply growth reinforces the supply-demand balance, supporting gold prices [14]. Future Trends - The future trajectory of the gold market will hinge on three key variables: the performance of the U.S. dollar and interest rates, geopolitical and economic risks, and the supply-demand gap [15][18]. - Gold is viewed as a stabilizing asset for portfolio diversification, particularly in the current complex economic environment [15][18].

Core Insights - The copper sector experienced a significant surge on September 25, with the "copper-weighted" Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising nearly 3% shortly after market open, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Freeport-McMoRan announced a force majeure at its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, leading to a reduction in copper and gold sales guidance for Q3 2025 by 4% and 6% respectively, and a projected 35% drop in production for 2026 [2][3] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs labeled the Grasberg incident as a "black swan," predicting a loss of 500,000 tons of copper supply over the next 12-15 months, which is expected to drive copper prices higher [3] Market Performance - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a net subscription of 300,000 units, amounting to approximately 4 million yuan, reflecting strong market demand [1] - Key stocks in the copper sector, such as Northern Rare Earth and Luoyang Molybdenum, reached their daily limit up, while Jiangxi Copper and Western Mining also saw significant gains [4] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of continued upward pressure on copper prices due to supply disruptions [6] Supply Chain Impact - The Grasberg mine accounts for approximately 3% of global copper supply, and its continued shutdown is expected to exacerbate supply tightness in the market [3] - Other mines, such as the Kamoa-Kakula project, are also facing delays, further contributing to supply chain disruptions and potential price increases [3][6] - Current copper inventories have shown a slight increase, but the overall supply remains constrained, with ongoing concerns about production in regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo [6] Investment Outlook - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading investment vehicle due to its high copper content and exposure to precious metals, making it attractive for investors looking for opportunities in the industrial metals sector [7] - The overall investment environment for nonferrous metals is bolstered by favorable macroeconomic conditions, including supply-side policies and demand recovery [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous research iteration to approach the truth, highlighting that growth comes from persistent denial and reconstruction in research [2][26]. Group 1: Research Framework and Goals - The team is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research outcomes [2]. - The guiding principle is to provide valuable independent research results that are grounded in reality and actionable [2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The article discusses the shift in the economic "three drivers" from manufacturing to services, indicating that as GDP per capita reaches $10,000 to $30,000 and urbanization hits 70%, service sector demand will accelerate [28]. - It notes that new consumption policies emphasize long-term strategies for domestic demand expansion rather than short-term stimuli, while also providing support for manufacturing to counter tariff impacts [29]. Group 3: Structural Reforms - The concept of "anti-involution" is presented as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, which is gaining more attention from both the government and industry, with a broader scope and stronger coordination [31].

Market Overview - A-shares led global markets with a 0.8% increase, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.0%[7] - The US dollar index rose by 0.1%, and the Chinese yuan appreciated by 0.7% against the dollar[7] Economic Indicators - The US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.3%, higher than the initial estimate of 3.0%[15] - The core PCE price index in the US rose by 2.88% year-on-year in July, slightly below the expected 2.89%[15] Consumer Sentiment - The Michigan consumer confidence index in the US dropped to 58.2 from 61.7[25] - Eurozone consumer confidence index fell to -15.5 from -14.7, indicating increased pessimism[30] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 229,000, down by 5,000 from the previous week[17] - Personal disposable income in the US grew by 4.6% year-on-year in July, while personal consumption expenditure increased by 4.7%[19] Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectations in the US rose to 4.8% from 4.5%[25] - The five-year inflation expectation slightly decreased to 3.5% from 3.4%[25] Policy Outlook - Multiple Federal Reserve officials indicated a potential interest rate cut in September, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction[36] - The Japanese central bank signaled a more favorable environment for potential interest rate hikes compared to April[38]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares lead global markets, with the rapid appreciation of the RMB and a decline in the US dollar index driven by interest rate cut expectations, while gold surpasses $3,400 [1] Global Major Asset Performance - Last week (August 25-29, 2025), major economic stock markets showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.8%, while the emerging market stock index fell by 0.6% [6] - Most commodities saw price increases, with IPE Brent crude oil futures up by 0.5% and London gold rising by 2.2% [6] - The US dollar index remained stable, closing up by 0.1% for the week [6] - The 10-year US Treasury yield slightly decreased from 4.26% to 4.23% [6] US Economic Overview - The US second-quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 3.3% year-on-year [6] - The core PCE price index year-on-year growth rate increased, with July's PCE index rising by 2.60% and core PCE by 2.88% [6] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000 [6] - Personal disposable income grew by 4.6% year-on-year, while personal consumption expenditure increased by 4.7% [6] - The consumer confidence index fell to 58.2 in August from 61.7 [6] - Inflation expectations rose, with the one-year inflation expectation increasing to 4.8% from 4.5% [6] European Economic Overview - The Eurozone consumer confidence index dropped to -15.5 in August from -14.7 [6] - The Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 95.2 from 95.7 [6] Monetary Policy Insights - Multiple Federal Reserve officials hinted at a potential interest rate cut in September [6] - The US appeals court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal but allowed the government to retain tariff measures [6] - Hopes for a trade agreement between the US and India appear dim, with the US imposing a 50% tariff on India [6] - The Bank of Japan indicated that the current economic environment is more favorable for interest rate hikes compared to April [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend. The dovish expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25BP in September is likely to dominate the market. The research team is optimistic about the medium - term trend of gold but warns that the recovery expectation from the strong performance of emerging - market equities may suppress its elasticity. The Fed is expected to restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, which is favorable for the gold trend. The current weak economic reality has not reversed, and the "interest - rate cut + fundamental downturn" stagflation - like combination is more beneficial to gold. If the situation changes to an "interest - rate cut + recovery" combination, silver will benefit more [2][4][7]. 3) Summary by Related Content Key Information - Trump's executive order to double India's tariffs to 50% took effect. Starting from 00:01 on the 27th Eastern Time, the US imposed an additional 25% ad - valorem tariff on imported Indian goods, causing many US customers to cancel orders. - The Trump administration is considering exerting greater influence on the 12 regional reserve banks of the Fed. Trump claims to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook from office, and if approved by the court, he will have the opportunity to control a majority of seats on the seven - member Fed Board of Governors. - Fed's Williams is quite optimistic about the economic situation, stating that the Fed may still maintain a certain degree of restrictiveness after interest - rate cuts, and each meeting is full of uncertainties [3]. Price Logic - On Wednesday, gold continued its moderately strong and volatile trend, while silver weakened slightly. Concerns about the Fed's independence are intensifying, and the doubling of US - India tariffs has increased the long - term stagflation expectation in the US. The late - session decline of the domestic equity market has suppressed silver prices in the short term. Before the release of next week's non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a 25BP interest - rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable [2][4]. Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is expected to be between 3300 and 3500, and for spot London silver, it is expected to be between 36 and 40 [7]. Index Data - On August 27, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity was 2211.28, down 0.50%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2459.50, down 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2244.49, down 0.59%. The precious metals index was 2729.16, with a daily decline of 0.16%, a 5 - day increase of 1.02%, a 1 - month increase of 1.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 23.36% [46][48].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the lithium carbonate industry and its supply dynamics, particularly in relation to the impact of government policies and market conditions on lithium supply and pricing trends [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Lithium Supply Dynamics**: - Despite a significant drop in lithium carbonate prices, approximately 50% of production capacity is currently unprofitable. However, high-cost projects like the Jiangxi mica mine and Zimbabwe lithium spodumene mine have not ceased operations due to strategic decisions and local government support [1][2]. - The closure of the underground project in Yichun is expected to last over three months, indicating stricter government regulation and potential impacts on lithium supply [1][3]. 2. **Impact of Government Policies**: - The government’s crackdown on illegal approvals and overproduction is likely to affect lithium supply. The most cautious estimate suggests that known shutdown projects could impact global lithium salt supply by about 7% in 2025 [1][5]. - In a neutral scenario, if the government aims to regulate the industry, potential production impacts could reach 10%-13%, indicating a possible supply-demand reversal in the coming years [1][5]. 3. **Market Reactions and Economic Indicators**: - The market is highly sensitive to U.S. government policies, particularly regarding tariffs, which can lead to volatility in gold prices and reflect a high-risk environment [7]. - Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials suggest a likelihood of interest rate cuts, which could stimulate investment in the renewable energy sector and increase demand for lithium carbonate [8][9]. 4. **Future Trends in the Lithium Industry**: - The lithium industry is expected to face challenges due to long resource development cycles and high-cost projects struggling to maintain profitability. However, with increasing demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, the long-term outlook remains positive [4][6]. - The potential for a supply shortage exists if the government enforces restrictions on low-cost projects, which could lead to a significant impact on domestic lithium production [5]. 5. **Investment Recommendations**: - Companies with stable valuations, such as Zhongmin Resources, are recommended due to their growth in copper and minor metals, which could support overall market value [6]. - Investors are advised to monitor leading companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, especially if positive signals emerge from the demand side [6]. Other Important Insights - The historical context of the Federal Reserve's actions indicates that rate cuts typically lead to increases in precious metal prices, which could indirectly benefit the lithium sector [9]. - The current market environment suggests that while short-term price reversals may be challenging, a combination of supply changes and policy support could stabilize prices in the medium term [6][10].