1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on March 30, 2026, and the overall trends in March 2026. Index futures are expected to be weak and volatile, while aluminum, lithium carbonate, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polypropylene, styrene, p - xylene, methanol, and ethylene glycol futures are expected to be strong and volatile. Silver, platinum, and palladium futures are expected to be weak and volatile [1][2]. - The report also provides macro - news and trading tips, including government policies, international relations, and economic data, which may affect the futures market [7]. - Analyzes the market performance of various futures on March 27, 2026, and provides support and resistance levels for each futures contract [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast - **March 30, 2026 Forecast** - Index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) are expected to be weak and volatile, with specific support and resistance levels provided [2][27]. - Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with corresponding support and resistance levels [2][45][48]. - Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures are expected to be weak and volatile, with support and resistance levels [2][55][67][72][77]. - Copper, zinc, nickel, and tin futures have different trends, with support and resistance levels [2][81][96][100][104]. - Aluminum, alumina, and lithium carbonate futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with support and resistance levels [2][87][91][108]. - Steel - related futures (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal) have different trends, with support and resistance levels [2][113][115][118][124]. - Glass and soda ash futures are expected to be weak and volatile, with support and resistance levels [2][127][134]. - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with support and resistance levels [2][140][145][149]. - Polyethylene, polypropylene, styrene, PTA, p - xylene, PVC, methanol, ethylene glycol, butadiene, and soybean meal futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with support and resistance levels [2][152][159][164][169][172][175][180][185][188][189]. - **March 2026 Forecast** - Index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) are expected to be weak and volatile, with specific support and resistance levels [5]. - Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures are expected to be weak and volatile, with support and resistance levels [5][55][67][72][77]. - Copper, zinc, nickel, and tin futures are expected to be weak and volatile, with support and resistance levels [5][81][96][100][104]. - Aluminum and lithium carbonate futures are expected to have wide - range oscillations, with support and resistance levels [5][87][108]. - Alumina, iron ore, coking coal, and soda ash futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with support and resistance levels [5][91][118][124][134]. - Glass futures are expected to be weak and have wide - range oscillations, with support and resistance levels [5][127]. - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with support and resistance levels, and crude oil and fuel oil may hit new highs [5][140][145][149]. - Polyethylene, polypropylene, styrene, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures are expected to be strong and volatile, with support and resistance levels [5][152][159][164][169][175][180]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - Government policies include promoting service industry development, establishing trade and investment working groups between China and the EU, and launching trade barrier investigations against the US [7]. - International relations involve the Iran - US - Israel conflict, including military actions, peace - negotiation efforts, and the impact on the Middle East situation [9][10][11]. - Economic data shows that from January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the profit of high - tech manufacturing increased by 58.7% [7]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis on March 27, 2026 - Index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) had different opening prices, showed upward trends after opening, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [21][22]. - Treasury bond futures (T2606, TL2606) had different opening prices, showed different trends, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [44][47]. - Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures had different opening prices, showed upward trends after opening, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [50][67][72][77]. - Copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, and tin futures had different opening prices, showed different trends, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [81][86][91][96][100][104]. - Steel - related futures (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal) had different opening prices, showed different trends, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [113][115][118][123]. - Glass and soda ash futures had different opening prices, showed different trends, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [127][134]. - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt futures had different opening prices, showed different trends, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [138][145][148]. - Polyethylene, polypropylene, styrene, PTA, p - xylene, PVC, methanol, ethylene glycol, butadiene, and soybean meal futures had different opening prices, showed different trends, and had specific closing prices and price ranges [152][158][164][169][172][175][179][185][188][189].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market is centered around the Middle East situation, with the main logic being the stagflation expectation caused by rising energy prices. As the conflict lasts longer than expected and escalates, the trading logic has shifted from inflation concerns to recession fears. Precious metals showed good performance on Friday under the support of the safe - haven attribute after the previous selling pressure was released. Due to the chaotic information on the US - Iran conflict, asset prices fluctuate frequently and passively, making trading difficult. Precious metals are expected to show a weak and volatile trend. Before a real agreement is reached, there is still a risk of the war escalating in some form. Gold is in an upward channel on the daily - line cycle from 2023 to the present, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the channel at $3900 - 4000. The gold volatility index GVZ is still at a high level (99.6% quantile), and the short - term volatility of gold is large, suitable for short - term speculation rather than allocation. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see in the short term [4]. - In the medium - term, regardless of the outcome of the US - Iran conflict, the energy price center is likely to rise, increasing the US imported inflation pressure, disrupting the Fed's interest - rate cut environment, and delaying the rate - cut rhythm, which will put short - term pressure on precious metals. However, considering the US stock market, debt repayment pressure, and private - credit market pressure, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year is low. As the core anchor for gold pricing, real interest rates have room to fall, which will support gold. After a previous sharp unilateral rise, the US - Iran conflict has led to a significant decline in risk appetite, causing gold to be sold as the primary liquid asset. The market is likely to enter a four - month shock - consolidation phase to complete valuation repair [4]. - In the long - term, the outcome of the US - Iran conflict will affect the market's pricing of gold from the perspective of the US comprehensive strength assessment. If the US fails to obtain control of the Strait of Hormuz in the US - Iran peace talks, the global perception of the US strength will be re - evaluated, and the trend of de - dollarization will continue. The core support logic for precious metals has not fundamentally changed, and long - term factors such as global order reconstruction, high geopolitical uncertainty, and global monetary system reconstruction still exist [7]. - Silver, platinum, and palladium are more like beta versions of gold from a financial perspective. Their explosive growth in the past year was mainly due to investment demand and will continue to follow gold price fluctuations. As the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the global economy deepens, economic uncertainty increases, and industrial demand expectations decline, which will affect the price levels of silver, platinum, and palladium from an industrial perspective [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - influencing Factors - The report mentions data on the US federal fund target rate, US Treasury yields and spreads, US Treasury real yields and inflation expectations, and policy interest rates and Treasury yields of major economies, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [15][18][21][24]. 3.2 ETF持仓跟踪 - Gold and silver ETF holdings data are provided. For example, on March 27, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF held 1052.7 tons with no change, and the SLV silver ETF held 15409.46 tons with no change. Data sources are from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [30]. - Information on the scale of China's commodity - based gold ETF holdings is also mentioned, with data from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [34]. 3.3 Exchange Inventories - Gold and silver exchange inventory data are presented, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [37][42]. 3.4 Domestic and Foreign Futures - Spot Price Differences - Information on domestic and foreign futures - spot price differences is provided, with data from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [50]. 3.5 Precious Metal Ratios - Data on precious metal ratios are given, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [57]. 3.6 Gold ETF Volatility Index - The gold ETF volatility index (GVZ) is a key indicator to measure the market's expectation of the gold price fluctuation in the next 30 days, calculated based on the option prices of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). When GVZ breaks through 30 (historical high range), it indicates a significant increase in gold price volatility, and leverage should be reduced and positions controlled. On March 27, 2026, the implied volatility of the Shanghai gold at - the - money option was 34.66%, and its quantiles in the past one - year, three - year, and since 2020 were 93.62%, 97.88%, and 98.58% respectively. The implied volatility of the Shanghai silver at - the - money option was 72.12%, and its quantiles in the past one - year and three - year were 83.66% and 94.56% respectively. Data sources are from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [65][67][70].

Group 1 - The Houthis in Yemen have launched military actions against Israel, indicating a new front in the Iran conflict and exposing the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to risks [4] - Following military actions against Venezuela and Iran, US President Trump has threatened Cuba, stating it is next on the list [4] - Energy prices are rising, leading to inflation expectations and forcing central banks to reconsider interest rate cuts, negatively impacting stocks, bonds, and gold [4] Group 2 - The State Council's Food Safety Office has held discussions with local government officials in Chengdu and Chongqing regarding food safety issues exposed during the CCTV "3.15" gala [5] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a temporary implementation arrangement for the WTO e-commerce agreement, aiming to promote inclusive and sustainable digital trade development [6] - China's central fiscal childcare subsidies for 31 provinces have been disclosed, with significant funding allocated to several provinces [7] Group 3 - Major Chinese banks, including ICBC and CCB, reported steady growth in asset quality and profitability, with a combined net profit exceeding 900 billion yuan [8] - A subsidiary of Xilinmen, a leading mattress company, is facing internal issues with illegal fund misappropriation amounting to 100 million yuan [8] - Sanhua Intelligent Controls received attention from 284 institutions, indicating strong interest in its prospects in the global electric vehicle market [8] Group 4 - China's innovative drug transactions exceeded $60 billion in Q1, nearing half of the expected total for 2026 [9] - A significant breakthrough in nuclear medicine has been achieved with the production of medical-grade alpha isotopes in China [9] - Shanghai aims to become a leading city for developers, showcasing advancements in AI and smart technology [9] Group 5 - The global shipping industry has faced increased fuel costs due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with additional costs exceeding 4.6 billion euros since February [13] - Russia plans to ban gasoline exports starting April 1 to stabilize domestic prices amid market turmoil [13] - The new Noida International Airport in India has officially opened, with an investment of approximately $1.18 billion [13] Group 6 - Thailand is negotiating with Iran to ensure safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz amid rising domestic oil prices [14] - The Philippines government has approved a price cap on imported rice to mitigate rising food costs due to the conflict [14] - 7-Eleven Japan is launching a new service allowing customers to order freshly cooked food via smartphone [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unclear situation of the geopolitical conflict, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The global stagflation expectation faces significant uncertain fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the potential adverse impact of the repeated geopolitical situation on risk assets. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF, while being vigilant about the drag that the further deterioration of market risk appetite may bring to the stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Macroeconomics - The situation of the Iranian geopolitical conflict continues to affect the financial market, and the war situation has fluctuated. On March 26, the Israeli Defense Forces launched a series of large - scale attacks on the infrastructure in Isfahan, increasing market concerns about the further escalation of the war. Iran has responded to the US's 15 - point cease - fire proposal through an intermediary, but believes the US's negotiation stance is part of a "third deception" plan. The market's expectation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has been dashed, resulting in a rebound in oil prices and a decline in major assets. The negotiation may still be in the intermediary - mediated stage, and it is difficult to reach a complete agreement quickly in the short term [1]. 3.2 Domestic Macroeconomics - The "15th Five - Year Plan" outlines an increase in the target for the added value of the core digital economy industries on the basis of the "14th Five - Year Plan" indicator framework, and adds indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. It also prioritizes the rectification of involution - style competition and the promotion of carbon peak work, and improves the unified market and dual - carbon assessment and certification systems. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable and has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The domestic port container throughput and the CRB index are at seasonal highs, indicating that external demand remains resilient [1]. 3.3 Asset Views - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. Be vigilant about the potential adverse impact of the repeated geopolitical situation on risk assets. The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant about the drag that the further deterioration of market risk appetite may bring, and it is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. 3.4 Market Conditions of Various Sectors - **Financial Sector**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and risk appetite tightens. Stock index futures are affected by strong geopolitical risks and are in a volatile state; stock index options have a slight increase in implied volatility and are also in a volatile state; treasury bond futures have improved sentiment due to safe - haven demand and loose capital, and are in a volatile state [4]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: In the short term, they are in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the risk of repeated conflicts. Gold and silver are affected by the repeated geopolitical situation, which raises inflation concerns, but the spot drive of silver is still weak, and both are in a volatile state [4]. - **Shipping Sector**: The opening freight rate of MSK has decreased month - on - month. The spot market has declined, and the passage through the strait may improve marginally. The container shipping European line is in a weakly volatile state [4]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: The cost support has weakened, and the prices are falling from high levels. Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as cost, production, and inventory [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Pessimistic sentiment has eased, and basic metals are oscillating and rising. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, and polysilicon are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies [4]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The energy shortage continues to affect the market, and the chemical industry continues to oscillate and consolidate. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle chips, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are all in a volatile state, affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, supply, and demand [5][6]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The supply of pig sources is sufficient, and the price continues to fall. Grains, oils, livestock, and other agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies. Among them, the price of live pigs continues to fall, and it is in a weakly volatile state [5][6]. 3.5 Market Fluctuation Data - **Financial Market**: On March 26, 2026, stock index futures such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined; treasury bond futures such as 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year showed different degrees of increase; the US dollar index increased, and the US dollar intermediate price also changed; interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield also changed [8]. - **Industry Index**: On March 26, 2026, most industries in the CITIC Industry Index declined, with industries such as national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and electronics having relatively large declines, while industries such as coal and oil and petrochemicals had slight increases [9][10]. - **Overseas Commodities**: On March 25, 2026, energy commodities such as NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil declined; precious metals such as COMEX gold and COMEX silver increased; non - ferrous metals such as LME copper and LME aluminum had different trends; agricultural products such as CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn increased [11][12]. - **Domestic Commodities**: On March 26, 2026, shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy and chemicals, and agricultural products all showed different degrees of price fluctuations. For example, the container shipping European line increased, while gold and silver declined [13][14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflict situation remains unclear, and investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The global stagflation expectation faces significant uncertainty and volatility, and attention should be paid to the potential adverse impact of the recurrence of the geopolitical situation on risk assets. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomics - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to affect the financial market. The US has proposed a 15 - point plan to Iran for a comprehensive cease - fire, but Iran has not clearly responded, and the negotiation may still be in the intermediary - matchmaking stage. The probability of the tail risk of further deterioration of the situation has slightly decreased [1]. Domestic Macroeconomics - The "15th Five - Year Plan"纲要 has adjusted the target of the added value of the core industries of the digital economy, added indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy, and improved relevant systems. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable, and the external demand remains resilient [1]. Asset Views - Due to the unclear geopolitical conflict situation, investors are advised to be cautious about risk assets in the short term. The stock index, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals sectors need to be vigilant against the drag caused by the further deterioration of market risk appetite. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. Market Conditions of Various Sectors Financial Sector - Stock index futures continue to rebound, but the divergence between long and short positions intensifies; stock index options' implied volatility continues to decline, and the term structure improves; bond markets fluctuate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiation. Gold and silver show a trend of oscillating strongly in the short term due to the US releasing peace - negotiation signals [4]. Shipping Sector - The spot market of container shipping on the European line has declined, and the passage through the strait may improve marginally. The freight rate of MSK has decreased month - on - month [4]. Black Building Materials Sector - The cost support of steel and iron ore has loosened, and the disk performance is under pressure; the cost of coke continues to rise, and the expectation of price increase is strong; the auction of coking coal continues to rise, and the disk fluctuates at a high level; the energy valuation of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon has bottomed out and rebounded [4]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - The pessimistic sentiment has eased, and the basic metals have stopped falling and oscillated. The prices of aluminum, nickel, and stainless steel show a trend of oscillating strongly [4]. Energy and Chemical Sector - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains deadlocked, and the energy and chemical products continue to oscillate at a high level. The prices of various products such as crude oil, LPG, and methanol are in an oscillating state [5]. Agricultural Sector - There is a co - existence of weak reality and strong expectation. The double - meal market is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The prices of various agricultural products such as grains, livestock, and rubber are mostly in an oscillating state [5]. Market Fluctuation Data Financial Market - On March 25, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of stock index futures, treasury bond futures, foreign exchange, and interest rates are presented. For example, the daily increase of CSI 300 futures is 1.6%, and the weekly decrease is 0.81% [7]. Industry Index - On March 25, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of various industry indexes are shown. For example, the daily increase of the non - ferrous metals industry index is 3.01%, and the monthly decrease is 18.55% [8][9]. Overseas Commodities - On March 24, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of overseas energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products are presented. For example, the daily increase of NYMEX WTI crude oil is 0.3%, and the weekly decrease is 9.89% [10][11]. Domestic Main Commodities - On March 25, 2026, the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations of domestic shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy and chemical products, and agricultural products are shown. For example, the daily decrease of container shipping on the European line is 2.78%, and the monthly increase is 51.86% [12][13][14].

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent escalation in the Middle East has led to hawkish signals from major central banks during the "Super Central Bank Week," resulting in a significant rise in long-term government bond yields and pressure on gold and silver prices [1][24] - The report highlights that the current environment suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike decisions will be influenced by oil prices and inflation, rather than being a standard response [1][4] Industry Analysis: Shipbuilding - China's shipbuilding industry has transformed from "scale expansion" to "quality and quantity improvement," maintaining its position as the world's leading shipbuilding nation for 16 consecutive years [2][25] - In terms of exports, China has become the largest shipbuilding exporter globally, increasing its market share from 16.8% in 2017 to 32.0% in 2024, with commercial ship exports reaching 41.6% of the global total [2][26] - The report emphasizes China's technological advantages, noting that it is the only country capable of building aircraft carriers, large cruise ships, and large LNG carriers, which are considered the pinnacle of shipbuilding technology [2][26] - The profitability of China's shipbuilding industry has improved, with the revenue profit margin for large shipbuilding enterprises reaching 9.71% in 2025, nearly double the overall industrial average [2][26] Company Insights - 361 Degrees (01361.HK) reported excellent performance in 2025, with plans to open over 100 new stores in 2026, which is expected to enhance overall operational efficiency [10] - Haidilao (06862.HK) reported that its revenue met expectations, with a stabilization in cost and expenses [11] - Minth Group (00425.HK) anticipates growth in its liquid cooling business, maintaining profit forecasts for 2026-2028 [12] - Moutai Group (02097.HK) focuses on enhancing store performance and brand value, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2026-2028 [13] - Ruifeng Group (003010) has seen significant growth in its self-owned brands, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2026-2028 [15] - Haitian Precision (601882) has adjusted its profit forecasts downward for 2026-2027 due to domestic market recovery challenges, while maintaining a positive outlook on overseas expansion [16] - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) has shown resilient growth in its core business, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2026-2028 reflecting strong performance [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metals will continue to play between geopolitical risks, inflation stickiness, and stagflation expectations. Inflation expectations, hawkish policies of major central banks, high oil prices, and a strong US dollar may limit the rebound. If the global economic slowdown is verified later, stagflation trading may support gold and silver. In the long - term, the logic of central bank gold purchases and supply constraints remains, and precious metals still have allocation value. It is expected to digest the gains through fluctuations in the short - term. Technically, the RSI and KD indicators of London gold and silver are in the oversold range, and the 30 - minute MACD golden cross indicates short - term rebound momentum. Short - term operations should be cautious, and long - term funds can consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 977.28 yuan/gram, up 37.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 17,085 yuan/kilogram, up 1,674 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 54,345 lots, down 8,419 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 52,442 lots, down 3,386 lots [2]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract was 282,408 lots, down 104,014 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai silver main contract was 1,247,893 lots, down 11,431 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 106,743 kilograms, down 3 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver was 365,923 kilograms, up 1,374 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 979.56 yuan, up 54.91 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 16,608 yuan, down 102 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 2.28 yuan/gram, up 17.63 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 477 yuan/gram, down 1,776 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1,052.70 tons, down 4.29 tons; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,513.67 tons, up 264.76 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 159,869 contracts, down 3,263 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 21,881 contracts, down 2,697 contracts [2]. - **Supply**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,302.80 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.12, down 0.40; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.01, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The VIX volatility index was 26.15, down 0.63; the CBOE gold volatility index was 43.36, up 8.11 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.47, up 0.05; the gold - silver ratio was 66.43, up 3.39 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump said the US and Iran had "strong" talks and formed the main points of an agreement, suspending attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. But Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US [2]. - A senior Iranian official said Trump had no right to set conditions or deadlines for negotiations. The two sides have exchanged information through Egypt and Turkey, but the US has not accepted Iran's two core conditions [2]. - Goldman Sachs said the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%, 5 percentage points higher than the previous forecast [2]. - Fed Governor Milan believes it is too early to judge the impact of oil prices on the US economy. He thinks the labor market is weak and advocates further interest rate cuts [2]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said inflation is the main risk to the US economy. He does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates, but if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly, there may be interest rate cuts later this year [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - March 24, 21:45: US March S&P Global PMI preliminary value [2] - March 24, 22:00: US February new home sales annualized total [2] - March 24, 22:00: US March Richmond Fed manufacturing index [2] - March 25, 20:30: US February durable goods orders monthly rate [2] - March 26, 20:30: US Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value [2] - March 26, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ended March 21 [2] - March 27, 20:30: US February core PCE price index annual/ monthly rate [2] - March 27, 20:30: US February personal spending monthly rate [2] - March 27, 22:00: US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [2]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.96% and the S&P 500 dropping by 1.51%, marking the longest consecutive weekly decline since February 2023, with a total drop of 2.11% for the week [2][3] - The technology sector was particularly hard hit, with major tech companies collectively losing over $400 billion in market value in a single day [6] Key Stock Movements - Notable declines included Nvidia down 3.12%, Tesla down 3.08%, and both Google and Meta down over 2% [6][8] - The market capitalization of major tech companies such as Nvidia and Google was reported at $4.2 trillion and $3.64 trillion respectively [8] Gold and Bond Market Reactions - COMEX gold futures fell by 2.47% to $4492 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 11.26%, the largest since 1981 [8] - U.S. Treasury bonds also saw a significant drop, with yields rising over 10 basis points across various maturities, indicating a severe sell-off in the market [9] Market Sentiment and External Factors - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has been identified as a key trigger for the market turmoil, with escalating tensions leading to fears of higher oil prices [12][15] - Goldman Sachs warned that if the conflict persists, oil prices could exceed $180 per barrel, which would increase inflationary pressures on consumers and businesses [14][15] Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's recent shift in policy expectations, including an increase in inflation forecasts and a delay in anticipated interest rate cuts, has contributed to market panic [15][20] - The market is now pricing in a 50% chance of rate hikes by 2026, reversing previous expectations of rate cuts [15] Technical Market Dynamics - The "Quadruple Witching" event, where multiple derivatives expire simultaneously, exacerbated market volatility, with a record nominal value of $5.7 trillion in options expiring [17] - The S&P 500 index is approaching critical support levels, and a breach could trigger further selling pressure from various funds [19] Institutional Outlook - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have expressed concerns that the current market volatility may not be over, particularly if geopolitical tensions and high oil prices persist [18][20] - Despite the current turmoil, the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain resilient, suggesting that the market adjustment may be a correction rather than a fundamental shift [21][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ongoing Iran-US conflict has led to a surge in global energy prices, triggering strong stagflation expectations in the market. The Fed's rate - cut rhythm has been significantly adjusted, and the precious metals sector is under pressure until the conflict is resolved. Stagflation expectations have also increased risks in the US stock and credit markets, leading to tighter liquidity. Silver is at a higher risk of a short - term decline due to its high commodity attribute and weak industrial demand [1][2]. - In the long - term, the core logic of global order reconstruction, weakening US dollar credit, and central banks' continuous gold purchases remains unchanged, so the long - term allocation value of precious metals still exists. However, in the short - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical conflict signals, market liquidity changes, and the Fed's policy stance [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Iran - US Conflict Triggers Global Stagflation Expectations - The duration of the Iran - US conflict has exceeded initial market expectations, spreading from short - term energy supply shocks to corporate profits, consumer confidence, and global inflation expectations, becoming the core trigger for stagflation expectations [3]. - The conflict has caused a substantial impact on the energy supply. As an important oil - producing country, Iran's conflict with the US and the transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz have led to concerns about oil supply, and production cuts by major oil - producing countries have further widened the supply gap, driving up international oil prices [3]. - Historical data shows that a 10% increase in oil prices will push up the US CPI by about 0.25% and the European CPI by about 0.3% within 3 - 12 months, while causing the US GDP to decline by 0.3% and the European GDP to decline by 0.4% cumulatively, resulting in a stagflation combination of "high inflation + low growth" [3]. - The US is experiencing sticky inflation, with the core PCE year - on - year rising to 3.06%, higher than the expected 2.9%, and the Q4 GDP being revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%. The conflict - driven energy price increase has further intensified stagflation expectations [4][6]. 3.2. Stagflation Expectations Lead to Adjustment of Fed's Rate - cut Rhythm - Due to stagflation expectations, the market has significantly revised the Fed's 2026 monetary policy path. Rate - cut expectations have cooled significantly, and high interest rates have become the consensus, which has put short - term pressure on the precious metals sector [7]. - As of March 18, 2026, the probability that the Fed will maintain the 350 - 375bp interest rate at the March meeting is 99.1%. The probability of rate cuts in June and July is decreasing, and the expected number of rate cuts for the year has shrunk from 3 to 1 or even none [7]. - The Fed is in a policy dilemma. Raising interest rates can control inflation but will suppress economic growth, while cutting rates can boost the economy but will lead to higher inflation. Therefore, the Fed has chosen to pause rate cuts and maintain high interest rates [11]. - The short - term pricing of gold and silver is mainly based on the real interest rate. Although rising inflation expectations suppress real interest rates to some extent, high nominal interest rates and the disappointment of rate - cut expectations have weakened the financial attribute support of precious metals. Coupled with the rising US dollar index, the precious metals sector is under pressure [12]. 3.3. Risks in US Stocks and Credit Markets Intensify Precious Metals Volatility - The combination of stagflation expectations and high Fed interest rates has increased the endogenous risks in the US financial market, especially in the US stock and private credit markets. The risk of tighter market liquidity has risen, which is a major factor suppressing the precious metals sector, and this impact is more significant on silver [13]. - Multiple risk factors, such as the escalation of the Iran - US conflict, the redemption wave in the US private credit market, and the high valuation of the AI sector, have increased the potential probability of a liquidity shock. If any risk materializes, institutions will sell assets [13][15]. - High interest rates have put pressure on the valuation of US stocks, and corporate profits have been revised down due to stagflation expectations, leading to increased market volatility. The US private credit market faces higher default risks due to high financing costs, and the redemption wave has further led to credit contraction, causing a risk resonance and tighter market liquidity [15]. - Gold is a global core safe - haven asset. Although it may be sold off at the beginning of a liquidity crunch, the safe - haven demand will drive up its price later. Silver has a higher proportion of commodity attributes, and its demand is closely related to global industrial economic growth. Under stagflation expectations, weak industrial demand and asset selling due to tighter liquidity will put double pressure on silver, making its short - term decline probability higher than that of gold [17]. - Since 2000, there have been three times when Brent crude oil reached $120, and each time it significantly suppressed precious metal prices. If the Iran - US conflict deepens and oil prices remain high, the precious metals sector may continue to be under pressure [17]. 3.4. Short - term Trend Judgment and Key Concerns of the Precious Metals Sector 3.4.1. Overall Trend Judgment - In the long - term, the long - term allocation value of precious metals remains unchanged due to global order reconstruction, weakening US dollar credit, central banks' continuous gold purchases, and rising long - term inflation expectations [20]. - In the short - term, gold is mainly under pressure with wide - range volatile fluctuations. The support levels are $5000/4800 per ounce. Its safe - haven attribute and long - term allocation value still exist, and if a liquidity shock occurs, the price will quickly recover [20][22]. - Silver is at a high risk of a short - term decline due to weak industrial demand and asset selling under tighter liquidity. The key support levels are $80/72 per ounce, and the probability of breaking through these levels will increase if market liquidity tightens further [22]. - The precious metals sector will remain under pressure until the Iran - US conflict is resolved, stagflation expectations are alleviated, and the Fed's rate - cut rhythm is revised. The fluctuation range will widen with geopolitical news and liquidity changes [22]. 3.4.2. Key Influencing Factors for Future Trends - Geopolitical dimension: The degree of deepening and settlement signals of the Iran - US conflict, the energy transportation safety in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the conflict triggers a chain reaction in the geopolitical pattern of other regions [23]. - Inflation and policy dimension: The continuous trend of international energy prices (crude oil, natural gas), changes in US inflation data such as core PCE and CPI, and the Fed's policy stance at the interest - rate meeting, especially whether there are signals of rate - cut rhythm revision [23]. - Market liquidity dimension: The redemption situation in the US private credit market, the fluctuation range and capital flow of US stocks, and whether the Fed takes measures to release liquidity to prevent liquidity resonance caused by multiple risks [23]. - Volatility dimension: The volatility of precious metals is at a historical high. The gold ETF volatility index (GVZ) is 30.56, and the at - the - money implied volatility of Shanghai gold and silver futures is above the 75th percentile. High volatility will intensify price fluctuations, and short - term large - scale abnormal movements should be watched out for [23]. 3.5. Operation Suggestions - Conservative investors can consider selling call options with a strike price above 25,000 at high prices. Based on a 20% futures margin, the current annualized margin yield of the AG2605 - C - 25000 contract is about 180%, and that of the AG2605 - C - 30000 contract is about 62%. Investors can choose appropriate contracts according to their risk preferences [1][26]. - On the basis of the above method, investors can also consider buying a small number of put options to obtain additional income. Since the winning probability of option buyers is naturally low, it is recommended that the premium expenditure does not exceed the premium income of option sellers [1][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals is volatile. The geopolitical situation in Iran dominates the capital market sentiment, causing the US dollar to break through 100 and putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. The indirect impact on other non - ferrous metal varieties is gradually emerging, with an overall volatile and bearish trend. The stagflation expectation is increasing [12]. - The price of copper is expected to have its central price shift upwards. Although it is currently under pressure from the rising US dollar and inventory accumulation, the long - term inflation expectation boosted by oil prices and the approaching peak consumption season will support the price [3][15]. - Zinc is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical factors, supply increase, and weak demand recovery put pressure on the price [4][17]. - The aluminum industry chain shows a relatively strong trend. Concerns about overseas supply and the recovery of downstream demand support the price, but the impact of the Middle East situation on exports needs to be noted [5][17]. - Tin is in a sideways consolidation state. The fundamentals are relatively calm, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Lead is in a weak consolidation state. Although the supply is increasing, the downstream is still digesting inventory, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [8][18]. - Nickel and stainless steel are affected by geopolitical and policy factors. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise [9][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metal market is affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran. The US dollar breaks through 100, and the market is in a volatile and bearish state. The stagflation expectation is increasing. The Chinese government continues to implement an active fiscal policy, and the economic data shows mixed performance. The Australian central bank raises interest rates, and the inflation risk in the Middle East conflict is increasing. The short - term trend of non - ferrous metals is affected by geopolitical factors and risk sentiment [12][13]. - **Variety Analysis** - **Copper**: The price is under short - term pressure but is expected to rise in the long term. The inflation expectation and the approaching peak consumption season will support the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [3][15]. - **Zinc**: The price is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical factors, supply increase, and weak demand recovery put pressure on the price. It is recommended to be short - term bearish and buy on dips [4][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum market is expected to be volatile and strong. The supply concern and the recovery of downstream demand support the price. It is recommended to wait and see or take a bullish approach [5][17]. - **Tin**: The price is in a sideways consolidation state. The fundamentals are relatively calm. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Lead**: The price is in a weak consolidation state. The supply is increasing, but the downstream is still digesting inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [8][18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price is affected by geopolitical and policy factors. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate and rise. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][18]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [19]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector is presented, including the price change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, net long - position change, net short - position change, and influencing factors of each variety [22]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant industry chain data charts are provided, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][26][29]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant arbitrage data charts are provided, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spread [49][51][53]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant option data charts are provided, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and position ratio [66][69][72].