Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting emphasized the risks of employment slowdown and raised the expectation for interest rate cuts in 2025, indicating a cautious but dovish stance from Chairman Powell [1][2][3] Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Highlights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut of the year, with expectations of two more cuts within the year [2] - The statement highlighted the risks of employment downturn, removing previous language about a robust labor market and introducing concerns about slowing job growth [2] Economic Forecasts - The Fed improved GDP forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 while slightly lowering unemployment rate projections for 2026 and 2027 [2] - The dot plot indicated an increase in expected rate cuts for 2025 from two to three, with further divergence in future rate expectations among committee members [2] Powell's Remarks - Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating no need for significant cuts at this time and emphasizing a data-dependent approach for future decisions [3] - He noted that while unemployment remains low, there are rising risks, attributing job growth slowdown to factors like reduced immigration and declining labor participation rates [3] Market Reactions - Following the FOMC announcement, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and stock markets showed mixed results, reflecting market sensitivity to Powell's cautious tone regarding future rate cuts [4] - Market confidence in two additional rate cuts this year increased, although expectations for 2026's rate cuts were pushed back [4] Future Rate Cut Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for future rate cuts were outlined: 1. **Soft Landing Scenario**: The economy achieves a soft landing with no major recession, leading to two more cuts this year and three in 2025 [5] 2. **Recession Scenario**: A significant economic downturn occurs, prompting aggressive rate cuts, potentially including a 50 basis point cut [6] 3. **High Inflation Scenario**: Persistent high inflation forces the Fed to maintain higher rates for an extended period [6] - The soft landing scenario is considered the most probable, while the recession and high inflation scenarios are viewed as less likely at this time [6]