1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The attack by Israel on Iran led to a sharp rise in oil prices, driving up PTA prices. However, the previous maintenance devices of PTA have been restarted one after another, and new devices are put into production, weakening the supply - demand pattern. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The spot basis is expected to be strong in the short term due to tight spot market supply, but may decline as supply resumes. Attention should be paid to the development of the Israel - Iran situation [5]. - MEG: Last week, ethylene glycol vessels were smoothly stored in the warehouse, and it is expected that the port inventory will rise at the beginning of next week. In the short term, the ethylene glycol market price will mainly follow the cost side. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the changes in geopolitical conflicts. Fundamentally, ethylene glycol is still in the de - stocking channel in June, and the inventory of mainstream trading tanks is running at a low level. However, as time goes by, the supply of syngas production will continue to recover, and the supply side will gradually become looser. In addition, after the obvious rebound of ethylene glycol prices, attention should be paid to the resumption progress of previously long - shut - down devices [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 PTA Analysis - **Fundamentals**: The PTA market is short - term oscillating and strengthening, mainly because of the concentrated production cuts of bottle chips in July, and the TA basis is still strong. The spot market negotiation atmosphere is average, the spot basis is strengthening, the June goods are negotiated around 09 + 280, the PTA spot processing fee is 224 yuan/ton (- 85), and the PTA09 disk processing fee is 344 yuan/ton (+ 4) [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 5020, the 09 - contract basis is 291, and the disk is at a discount, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 days, which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net long position has changed from short to long, which is bullish [6]. 3.2 MEG Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the spot basis is at a premium of 81 - 90 yuan/ton to the 09 - contract, and the July futures basis is at a premium of 85 - 88 yuan/ton to the 09 - contract. As of June 16, the total inventory of the MEG port in the main port area of East China is 54.26 tons, a decrease of 2.12 tons compared with the previous period. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 66.26% [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4470, the 09 - contract basis is 76, and the disk is at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 55.38 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32 tons, which is bullish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position has increased, which is bearish [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The attack by Israel on Iran led to a sharp rise in oil prices, driving up PTA prices [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: The previous maintenance devices of PTA have been restarted one after another, and new devices are put into production, weakening the supply - demand pattern; as time goes by, the supply of syngas production of ethylene glycol will continue to recover, and the supply side will gradually become looser [9]. 3.4 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. After the disk rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.5 Supply - demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.6 Other Data Analysis - **Price Data**: It includes the spot price of bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, basis, spot spread, and other data from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][27] - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes the inventory data of PTA factories, MEG ports, PET slices, polyester fibers, etc., from 2020 - 2025 [40] - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [51][55] - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the processing fees of PTA, the production profits of MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY), etc., from 2022 - 2025 [59][62]