交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货跌后反弹，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差偏弱，贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘。本周及 下周货在01贴水58~65附近有成交，价格商谈区间在4470~4530附近。10月底在01贴水60有成交，个别略低。今日主流现货基差 在01-63。中性 6、预期：节后PTA现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差区间波动，部分PTA装置检修降幅叠加新装置投产推迟，PTA供需预期改善， 预计短期内现货价格仍跟随成本端震荡为主，关注下游产销及装置变动情况。 2、基差：现货4500，01合约基差-84，盘面升水 中性 3 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA： 6、预期：从成本端来看，供需过剩预期维持，但过剩压力体现仍需要时间，油价预计维持区间震荡。国内外短流程提负以及部 分装置推迟检修后带来的 PX 增量较为明显，而需求端在 PTA 效益大幅压缩后，新装置投产推迟以及检修明朗，对 PX 需求预 期存在进一步影响，PXN 预计偏弱表现，成本力度支撑一般。10 月英力士，恒力均有检修计划，且逸盛大化和海南尚未确定重 启时间，供应端开工率一般性，而从需求来看，随着 9 月下产销放量，聚酯工厂库存大幅下降有可能延缓聚酯降负预期，供需 面预计紧平衡状态。 1、基本面：国庆中秋假期期间，PTA市场整体呈现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For PTA, the futures markets fluctuated and closed lower, with the spot market showing average negotiation atmosphere and little change in spot basis. The market expects the basis to have limited upside potential, and the absolute price to fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Before the holiday, the intention of traders to hold goods was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation is expected to turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2. Daily Hints - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: Futures fluctuated and closed lower, spot negotiation average, basis little change. 10 - mid contracts traded at a discount of around 55 to 01 contracts, price negotiation range 4570 - 4610. Mainstream spot basis is 01 - 55 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4590, 01 contract basis is - 62, neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period, bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: Net short, short positions increasing, bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Futures prices rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA devices reduced production or shut down due to typhoons, and downstream polyester sales improved significantly, with the spot basis strengthening slightly. However, the market expectation is still bearish, and the basis is expected to have limited upside potential [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol had a narrow - range oscillation, and the market negotiation was average. Spot transactions were mainly at a premium of 63 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the trading was weak. Traders' intention to hold goods before the holiday was not high [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4295, 01 contract basis is 71, bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period, bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below it, bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: Main net short, short positions decreasing, bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: Polyester sales improved significantly last week, and the product inventory of polyester factories decreased significantly. Before the holiday, the intention to hold ethylene glycol in the market was weak. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation will turn to surplus, and the fundamental support is weak [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Bullish Factors**: - Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 607,000 barrels, which was in contrast to analysts' forecast of an increase of 235,000 barrels [8]. - As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has some expectations for the start of demand [9]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to resume production in November [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the market rebounds [11]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents data from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, production, import, export, consumption, and inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows data from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol production, import, consumption, and port inventory, as well as changes in supply and demand year - on - year [13]. - **Price - related Data**: - **Bottle Chip Spot Price**: Shows the price trends of PET bottle chips in the East China market from 2020 to 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Bottle Chip Production Gross Margin**: Displays the production gross margin trends of bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [18][19][20]. - **Bottle Chip Capacity Utilization Rate**: Presents the capacity utilization rate trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Bottle Chip Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of bottle chips from 2021 to 2024 [23][24]. - **PTA Spread and Basis**: Includes TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1 spreads and PTA basis trends from 2019 to 2025 [25][26][27][29][30][31]. - **MEG Spread and Basis**: Covers EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1 spreads and MEG basis trends from 2021 to 2025 [32][33][34][35][36][37][38]. - **Spot Spread**: Displays TA - EG spot spread and paraxylene processing spread trends from 2021 to 2025 [39][40]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **PTA Inventory**: Shows the trends of PTA factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **MEG Inventory**: Presents the trends of MEG port inventory in East China from 2021 to 2025 [42]. - **PET Chip Inventory**: Displays the trends of PET chip factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Polyester Inventory**: Shows the inventory trends of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, DTY, FDY, and POY from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50][51]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: - **Upstream Operating Rates**: Include the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [52][53][54][55]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Comprise the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [56][57][58][59]. - **Profit - related Data**: - **PTA Processing Fee**: Shows the PTA processing fee trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61]. - **MEG Profit**: Presents the profit trends of different MEG production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Polyester Fiber Profit**: Displays the profit trends of polyester staple fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [65][66][67][68][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the market expected it to be bearish, with limited upside for basis and absolute prices to fluctuate with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price was expected to be sorted at a low level before the holiday. The supply - demand balance would turn to surplus in the fourth quarter, and the fundamental support was weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, September cargo was traded at 01 - 73~75, with prices negotiated around 4570 - 4605. Mid - October cargo was traded at a discount of 55 - 60 to 01, and late - October cargo at a discount of 50 to 01. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 74 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4590, 01 contract basis was - 56, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory was 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main positions**: Net short positions were decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: PTA futures rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA plants reduced or stopped production due to typhoons, and polyester sales improved. The spot basis strengthened slightly, but the market remained bearish, with limited upside for the basis [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol declined weakly. Night - session trading was weak, with spot trading at a premium of 57 - 62 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The intraday basis recovered slightly, with September futures trading at a premium of 65 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4300, 01 contract basis was 77, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main positions**: Net short positions were increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: Polyester sales improved last week, and polyester factory inventories decreased. However, the intention to hold positions before the holiday was weak. The price was expected to be sorted at a low level. The supply - demand balance would turn to surplus in the fourth quarter, and the fundamental support was weak [7]. 3. Today's Focus Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 607,000 barrels last week, contrary to analysts' expectations of an increase of 235,000 barrels. The approaching "Golden September and Silver October" season raised expectations of demand. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton plant was shut down for maintenance and was expected to restart in November [9][10][11]. - **Negative factors**: The short - term commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and resistance levels should be watched for a rebound in the market [12]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **PTA**: The report provided PTA supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on capacity, production, imports, exports, and inventory [13]. - **MEG**: The report provided ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on production, imports, and inventory [14]. 4. Fundamental Data Price - The report presented historical price data for bottle chips, production margins, and various spreads for PTA and MEG from 2020 to 2025 [17][20][27]. Inventory Analysis - It included historical inventory data for PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers from 2021 to 2025 [44][46]. Upstream and Downstream开工率 - It showed historical开工率 data for PTA, xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54][58]. Profit - It presented historical profit data for PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, and other products from 2022 to 2025 [63][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - PTA futures followed the cost side to open low and move low. PTA's own device restarts and reduces production simultaneously, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly. It is expected that PTA spot prices will fluctuate in the short term, mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5] - The price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) rebounded slightly on Thursday, with general market discussions. The MEG futures oscillated within a range, and the basis of near - term spot weakened significantly. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to device and production - sales changes. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the futures performance is under pressure [7] - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the futures rebound [12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - PTA: The previous day, PTA futures fluctuated and rose. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was general, and the spot basis changed little. The September goods were negotiated at a discount of 70 - 75 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4550 - 4615. The mainstream of mid - October was traded at 01 - 50, and the end - October was traded at a discount of 45 - 50 to the 01 contract. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 73. The spot price is 4585, the basis of the 01 contract is - 93, and the futures is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [5][6] - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly, with general market discussions. The intraday MEG futures oscillated within a range, and the basis of near - term spot weakened significantly. In the morning, the low - level basis of spot was traded at a premium of about 56 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The basis of far - month futures weakened limitedly due to less market trading. In the afternoon, the futures oscillated narrowly, and the basis changed little. In US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol was narrowly sorted, and the recent shipments were negotiated around 508 - 510 US dollars/ton, with the intraday recent shipments traded around 505 - 509 US dollars/ton. The spot price is 4311, the basis of the 01 contract is 65, and the futures is at a discount. The total inventory in East China is 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main contract has a net short position, and the short position decreased [7][8] 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes and supply - demand gaps [13] - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, port inventory, and inventory changes from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes and supply - demand gaps [14] 5.价格相关 - Multiple price - related charts are provided, including the spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, futures spreads, basis, and spot spreads of PET bottle chips, PTA, and MEG from 2020 to 2025 [16][19][23][24][26][30][33][37][40] 6.库存分析 - Multiple inventory - related charts are provided, including the factory inventory of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fiber, as well as the inventory days of various polyester products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [42][44][47][51] 7.聚酯上下游开工 - Multiple charts are provided to show the开工 rates of polyester upstream (PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) from 2020 to 2025 [53][57] 8.利润相关 - Multiple charts are provided to show the production profits of PTA, MEG (produced by different methods), polyester fiber (short - fiber, long - fiber DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the futures盘面 followed the cost side to open low and move low. PTA's own device restarted and reduced its load in parallel, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis was running weakly. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. - For MEG, on Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol was widely adjusted, and the basis weakened significantly. Before the holiday, traders mainly sold their goods. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol starting from the fourth quarter, and the disk performance is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted at a low level, and subsequent attention should be paid to device and production and sales changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: Overnight crude oil rebounded again. Today, PTA futures fluctuated and rose following the cost side. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. Individual polyester factories replenished their stocks. September goods were traded at a discount of 70 - 75 to the 01 contract, with individual slightly lower at around 01 - 80, and the price negotiation range was around 4490 - 4555. Mid - October goods were traded at around 01 - 55 - 57, with individual slightly lower. Late - October goods were traded at 01 - 50. Today's mainstream spot basis was 01 - 73, rated as neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4520, the basis of the 01 contract was - 106, and the disk was at a premium, rated as bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory was 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period, rated as bullish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, rated as bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: Net short, with short positions decreasing, rated as bearish [6]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol was widely adjusted, and the basis weakened significantly. Although the ethylene glycol disk was slightly repaired during the day, the intention to hold goods in the market was weak. Before the holiday, traders mainly sold their goods. In the afternoon, the basis of this week's spot was traded at a low level at a premium of 64 - 65 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the basis of far - month futures was relatively stable. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol rose slightly. Recent cargoes were negotiated at around 506 - 510 US dollars/ton, and recent cargoes were traded at around 506 - 509 US dollars/ton during the day, with the trading being relatively stalemate, and an appropriate amount of financing merchants participated in the inquiry. Rated as neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4305, the basis of the 01 contract was 71, and the disk was at a discount, rated as bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period, rated as bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, rated as bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, with short positions decreasing, rated as bearish [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and ending inventory all showed different degrees of fluctuations. For example, in 2024, PTA production capacity increased from 8062 in January to 8812 in December. In 2025, it continued to change, reaching 9472 in December [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total consumption, port inventory, and inventory changes also showed different trends. For example, in 2024, ethylene glycol production capacity utilization and total supply changed month - by - month, and in 2025, it continued to show dynamic changes [14]. Other Data Analysis - **Price - related**: Data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA basis, MEG basis, and various price spreads (such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1, EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1, TA - EG spot spread, etc.) from 2019 - 2025 were presented, which can help analyze market trends and price relationships [16][26][34]. - **Inventory - related**: Data on PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice inventory, and various polyester product inventories in different regions and time periods were provided, which is helpful for understanding the inventory situation in the industry [43][45]. - **Production and Operation - related**: Data on the start - up rates of polyester upstream (such as PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (such as polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) were given, which can be used to analyze the production and operation status of the industry [54][58]. - **Profit - related**: Data on the production margins of PTA, MEG (in different production methods), and various polyester fibers were presented, which can help evaluate the profitability of different segments in the industry [62][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures market showed a low - level oscillation. The spot market had a general negotiation atmosphere with fluctuating spot basis. The PTA factory inventory decreased slightly. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below it. The main positions were net short with an increase in short positions. It's expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly influenced by the cost side in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. - MEG: The price of ethylene glycol declined weakly. The basis weakened significantly. The port inventory increased from a low level, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The market sentiment is dragged down by new device progress and the weak terminal market. It's predicted that the price of ethylene glycol will adjust at a low level in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to device and production - sales changes [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The spot price of PTA on September 24th was 4468, with a basis of - 88 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium on the futures market. The PTA factory inventory was 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below it. The main positions were net short with an increase in short positions. The 9 - month goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract, with a price negotiation range around 4450 - 4490. The 10 - month goods were traded at a discount of 60 - 70 to the 01 contract. The current mainstream spot basis was 01 - 79 [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price of ethylene glycol declined weakly. The basis weakened significantly during the day, with the spot negotiation price at a premium of 77 - 91 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the futures price rebounded slightly after reaching a low level, and the basis stabilized. The price of recent shipping goods in US dollars dropped to 504 - 505 US dollars/ton in the afternoon. The spot price was 4292, with a basis of 80 for the 01 contract, indicating a discount on the futures market. The inventory in East China was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below it. The main positions were net short with an increase in short positions [6][7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Tables** - PTA: From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity increased, with the production capacity reaching 9472 in December 2025. The production load, output, supply, and demand all showed certain fluctuations. For example, in September 2025, the production capacity was 9172, the production load was 83.00%, the output was 626, the total supply was 626, and the total demand was 624 [12]. - MEG: From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol also changed. For instance, in September 2025, the total production was 58, the total supply was 234, and the total demand was 233 [13]. - **Price - related Data** - Included data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, start - up rates, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spreads, basis, spot spreads, and processing margins, covering multiple years from 2020 to 2025 [16][19][23][24][30][33][40]. - **Inventory - related Data** - Included data on PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice factory inventory, and various polyester fiber inventories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, spanning from 2020 to 2025 [42][44][47]. - **Start - up Rate - related Data** - Included data on the start - up rates of polyester upstream (PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (PTA industrial chain polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms), covering the years from 2020 to 2025 [53][57]. - **Profit - related Data** - Included data on PTA processing fees, MEG production margins from different production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, ethylene - based), and production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY), covering the years from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][66]. 3.5 Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors** - The EIA crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending September 12th decreased by 928500 barrels, with a larger decline than expected. The strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 504000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 29600 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 234700 barrels, while refined oil inventory increased by 404600 barrels [8]. - With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, there is a slight expectation of demand activation in the market [9]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device was shut down for maintenance, with an expected restart in November [10]. - **Negative Factors** - The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report is the second in the series of in - depth studies on chemical plants. It analyzes the upstream - downstream matching of the polyester industry chain and the marginal plants of futures varieties such as PX, PTA, PR, and PF. PTA enterprises with PX or polyester matching account for 91.6% of the production capacity, PX with downstream matching accounts for 82.0% of the production capacity, and polyester with upstream matching accounts for 72.1% of the production capacity. The marginal plants are identified from aspects like old plants, small single - line production capacity or enterprise scale, high production process costs, and long distances for raw material procurement or product sales [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Upstream - Downstream Matching Analysis 3.1.1 Group - Based Upstream - Downstream Matching As of the end of July 2025, China's PX, PTA, and polyester production capacities were 4367, 9171.5, and 8894 tons respectively. The theoretical annual PX gap was 1640 tons, and the theoretical annual PTA surplus was 1567 tons. PTA enterprises with PX or polyester matching accounted for 91.6% of the production capacity, PX with downstream matching accounted for 82.0% of the production capacity, and polyester with upstream matching accounted for 72.1% of the production capacity. The enterprises in the polyester industry chain can be classified into four types: those with complete PX/PTA/polyester matching; those mainly with polyester and PTA matching but little PX matching; those with only PX and PTA matching; and those with relatively single matching [10][11]. 3.1.2 Region - Based Upstream - Downstream Matching The production capacity of the polyester industry chain is concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, Fujian, etc. Except for Shandong having a large surplus of PX for sale, most other regions have PX production capacity gaps or are basically balanced. Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Liaoning have the largest PX gaps. In terms of PTA, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have large PTA production capacity gaps, while Liaoning, Guangdong, and other regions have PTA surpluses [12][15][16]. 3.2 PX Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, China's total PX production capacity was 4367 tons, with an effective operating capacity of 4254 tons. PX production capacity is mainly distributed in Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, etc. The marginal PX plants are identified from aspects such as production time, single - set scale, and production process. Old plants (over 20 years in production), small - scale plants (less than 100 tons), and medium - short - process plants (accounting for 17.4% of the total production capacity) are more likely to be marginal plants [20][23][30]. 3.3 PTA Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PTA production capacity was 9171.5 tons, with 836.5 tons having been shut down for more than half a year. PTA production capacity is mainly distributed in coastal areas such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, and Fujian. The marginal PTA plants are mainly those with a production capacity of less than 200 tons and put into production before 2020, with a total capacity of 1295 tons, accounting for 14.1% [34][40][41]. 3.4 PR Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PR production capacity was 2168 tons, mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Hainan, and Liaoning. The top four bottle - chip manufacturers account for 78% of the total production capacity. The marginal bottle - chip plants are those that meet one or more of the following conditions: long production time, small plant scale, lack of upstream - downstream matching ability of the group, and high freight costs due to long distances for raw material procurement or product sales. A total of 326 tons of production capacity may be marginal plants, accounting for 15% [44][51][54]. 3.5 PF Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PF production capacity was 968.5 tons, mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian. The top four short - fiber manufacturers account for 46% of the total production capacity. Plants with a production time of over 20 years are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Fujian. Small - scale plants (less than 20 tons) are more likely to be marginal plants. The difference in processing costs between new and old plants is not significant, and the survival of old plants depends more on market dynamic balance [55][57][62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher due to some device news. The spot market trading atmosphere was average, and the basis of the spot slightly strengthened. The supply of PTA is expected to return, and the market supply - demand outlook is weak. The spot price of PTA will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices and terminal demand [5]. - **MEG**: The price of ethylene glycol was consolidating at a low level. The short - term supply and demand of ethylene glycol remained tight, and the basis still had some support during the delivery period. However, with the progress of new device commissioning, the supply - demand in the distant months will turn loose, and the disk will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.前日回顾 There is no specific content about the previous day's review in the report. 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA**: The fundamentals were affected by device news. The spot basis was - 92, the factory inventory was 3.84 days (a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period), and the 20 - day moving average was downward. The main position was net short with a decrease in short positions. The supply is expected to return, and the price will follow the cost side [5][6]. - **MEG**: The price was consolidating at a low level. The spot basis was 76, the inventory in East China was 37.24 tons (a decrease of 0.73 tons compared with the previous period), and the 20 - day moving average was downward. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions. The short - term supply and demand was tight, but the long - term supply - demand will turn loose [7][8]. 3.3.今日关注 There is no specific content about what to focus on today in the report. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025. For example, in September 2025, the PTA production capacity was 9172, the production was 626, the total supply was 626, the total demand was 624, and the ending inventory was 337 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025. For example, in September 2025, the EG production was 58, the total supply was 234, the total demand was 233, and the port inventory change was 2 [13]. - **Price and Profit Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester filaments, as well as the processing fees and profits of different production methods. For example, the PTA processing fee was 51.58 yuan/ton, and the naphtha MEG internal - market profit was - 1110.70 yuan/ton [14]. 3.5.影响因素总结 - **L利多**: The average operating load of polyester devices increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start was slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device was shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart in November [11]. - **利空**: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continued to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere was still cautious. The short - term commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the upper resistance level of the disk rebound [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年9月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货区间震荡，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差走弱，贸易商商谈为主，少量聚酯工厂补货。9月货主流 在01贴水80成交，个别略高在01贴水75~78，略低在01贴水85，价格商谈区间在4590~4610附近。10月中上在01-60~65有成交。9 月下仓单在09-55有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-80。中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA供应回归，叠加个别主流供应商出货，现货市场流通性尚可，且市场供需预期偏弱，现货基差逐步走低，价 格上，PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡为主，关注聚酯上下游装置变动及终端需求。 2 ...