大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年8月25日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： MEG 每日观点 MEG： 6、预期：8月下旬乙二醇港口到货稀少，叠加近期主港提货有所好转，近两周港口库存仍将保持下降趋势。9月初起外盘到货将呈 现增量。乙二醇基本面暂无突出矛盾，港存低位以及聚酯旺季预期共振下短期乙二醇震荡偏强为主。但是乙二醇远期依旧存在累库 预期，后续关注聚酯负荷以及产销变化。 1、基本面：周五，贸易商商谈为主。个别主流供应商有出货。8月货在09+15~30商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4850~4890附近。9月中 在09+20~30有成交，个别在01+15有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+22。中性 2、基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures rose and then fell yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The processing margin has remained low recently, some PTA plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load has rebounded. There is no pressure for PTA to accumulate inventory in August. However, the oil price is under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The polyester load rebounded to around 89.4% last week, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased, with gradually strengthening demand support. During the recent price correction of MEG, polyester factories actively participated in price - fixing, and the port shipments will improve in the future. The inventory at ports is not expected to increase significantly from August to September. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PTA Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, PTA futures rose and then fell, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The 8 - month cargo was negotiated at 09 - 5~10, with the price negotiation range around 4670~4705. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 - 8 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4690, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position is decreasing [5]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. 3.2 MEG Analysis - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price center of MEG rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The night - session MEG fluctuated within a narrow range, and the negotiation was relatively limited. The domestic MEG market rose steadily, and the trading was fair. The spot was negotiated and traded at a high level of over 4480 yuan/ton, and the negotiation atmosphere became a bit stalemate in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the center of the MEG outer market fluctuated upwards. The recent shipments were negotiated and traded at around 521 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the market rose steadily, with the recent shipments negotiated at around 523 - 525 US dollars/ton. The domestic - foreign price inversion widened, and the buying was relatively weak [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4455, and the basis of the 09 contract is 71, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force has a net short position, and the short position is increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3.3 Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Some PTA plants are planned to be under maintenance in August, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market's expectation of demand start has also been slightly reflected [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [8]. - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the market rebound [8]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. 3.5 Price - Related Charts - **PET Bottle Chip**: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, etc. of PET bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [13][16][20][21]. - **PTA and MEG**: It includes the price spreads (such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1, EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1), basis, and spot price spreads between PTA and MEG from 2019 to 2025 [23][29][37]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and various types of polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025 [39][41][44]. 3.7 Operating Rate Analysis - **Polyester Upstream**: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [50]. - **Polyester Downstream**: It includes the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54]. 3.8 Profit Analysis - **PTA**: It shows the PTA processing fee from 2022 to 2025 [58]. - **MEG**: It shows the production profit of MEG produced by different methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [61]. - **Polyester Fibers**: It shows the production profit of polyester short fibers, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [64][65][67].

Group 1: Agricultural Products Price Index - The wholesale and retail price indices for agricultural products in Zibo have increased, with notable fluctuations in vegetables and fruits [1][2] - Garlic prices have decreased slightly, with a wholesale average of 3.19 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg (7.89%) from last week, while retail prices remain stable at 5.13 yuan/kg [1] - Cucumber prices have risen significantly, with a wholesale average of 2.70 yuan/kg, up 0.50 yuan/kg (22.73%), driven by reduced supply due to weather conditions and high demand from the catering industry [1] - Leek prices have increased, with a wholesale average of 1.30 yuan/kg, up 0.30 yuan/kg (30.00%), attributed to slower growth and reduced supply of quality leeks [2] - Cabbage prices have also risen, with a wholesale average of 1.00 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan/kg (25.00%), due to adverse weather affecting vegetable production [2] - Pear prices have slightly decreased, with a wholesale average of 3.19 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg (0.93%), as market demand shows seasonal recovery [3] - Overall, the supply of vegetables and fruits in Zibo is stable, with recommendations for consumers to purchase according to their needs [3] Group 2: Chemical Products Price Index - The Zibo chemical products price index is at 718.84, down from 721.70, indicating a slight decline [4] - The basic chemical products price index averages 708.16, down from 710.51, reflecting weak market conditions influenced by falling international oil prices [4] - The plastic products price index averages 744.34, down from 748.39, due to varying price trends among different plastic products [4] - The rubber products price index averages 548.27, up from 543.13, supported by strong synthetic rubber prices and tight supply of certain grades [4] Group 3: New Materials Price Index - The Zibo new materials price index is at 805.05, down from 808.07, indicating a downward trend [5] - The PC price index averages 758.32, down from 762.11, due to falling raw material prices [5] - The PA price index averages 678.37, down from 678.74, reflecting a stable but declining trend due to oversupply [5] - The PET bottle chip price index averages 894.20, down from 898.80, influenced by weak demand and declining raw material prices [5] Group 4: Natural Gas Price Index - The average LNG price in Zibo is 4192 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton (4.13%) from last week, due to increased competition from imported LNG [6] - The liquid natural gas price index is declining, while the pipeline natural gas index remains unchanged [6] - Future expectations indicate continued downward pressure on LNG prices due to weak downstream demand [6] Group 5: Cement Price Index - The average price for various types of cement in Zibo remains stable, with no significant changes reported [7] - Specific prices include 264 yuan/ton for bagged PC42.5 cement and 270 yuan/ton for bulk PC42.5 cement, indicating stability in the market [7] - The overall cement price index in Zibo shows no fluctuations, reflecting a steady market environment [7]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年8月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，个别聚酯工厂有递盘。8月货在09贴水12~15附近商谈成交，个别略高，价格商谈区间在4630~4680附近。9月 中在09+0有成交，9月底在09+5有成交。今日主流现货基差在09-13。中性 2、基差：现货4646，01合约基差-57，盘面贴水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.7天，环比减少0.12天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 6、预期：近期加工差维持低位，部分PTA装置检修，加之聚酯负荷回升，8月PTA暂无累库压力，价格上，油价承 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, due to sustained low processing margins, recent changes in PTA plants have increased. However, in terms of price, the cost side lacks support and downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will stabilize. Attention should be paid to subsequent PTA plant and downstream polyester load changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will be adjusted widely within the month, and the increase lacks sustainability. The arrival volume of foreign ships will decrease around the middle of the month. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will be basically balanced from August to September, and demand support will gradually strengthen over time. The fundamental structure of ethylene glycol is moderately positive, and it is expected that the short - term low - level support for ethylene glycol will be strong. Follow - up attention should be paid to plant changes [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the upward rebound of the market, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2. Daily Tips - PTA: The PTA futures followed the cost side down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with polyester factories as the main buyers. The spot basis was differentiated. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 14. The spot price is 4646, and the 09 - contract basis is 6, with the futures price at a discount. PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level, and the market trading was active. The night - session ethylene glycol market adjusted narrowly. In the morning, affected by the Shenghong Refining and Chemical plant, the market briefly rebounded, and buying interest was active. Then the market declined and adjusted, and polyester factories actively participated in price - fixing in the afternoon. The spot basis strengthened synchronously, and by the end of the session, the spot negotiation price was at a premium of 85 - 88 yuan/ton to the 09 - contract. In terms of US dollars, the external market price of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level, and the recent mainstream trading price of ship cargoes was around 522 - 526 US dollars/ton, with transactions around 522 - 524 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in purchases. The spot price is 4465, and the 09 - contract basis is 98, with the futures price at a discount. The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [7][8]. 3.3. Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, PTA consumption, and ending inventory [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the supply - demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol total operating rate, output, import, total supply, polyester production, ethylene glycol consumption, and port inventory [12]. 3.5. Price - The report provides data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization, and inventory from 2020 to 2025. It also shows the price spreads of PTA (TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1), PTA basis, MEG month - to - month spreads (EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1), MEG basis, spot spreads (TA - EG, p - xylene processing spread) [14][17][21][22][24][27][30][34][37]. 3.6. Inventory Analysis - The report analyzes the inventory of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various types of polyester fibers from 2021 to 2025, including factory - level inventory and port inventory [40][41][43]. 3.7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工 - It shows the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and PTA - related industries from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. 3.8. Processing Fees and Profits - The report provides data on PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, ethylene - based), and production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 to 2025 [59][62][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The spot basis of PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the spot price is expected to move sideways in the short term. The continuous low processing margin has led to increased changes in PTA plants recently, but the cost side lacks support and the downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season [5]. - MEG: The visible inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to increase significantly next Monday, but the increase in port inventory is not sustainable. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is basically balanced in the medium and short term, and the demand support will gradually strengthen over time. The short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol is expected to be strong [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 No information is provided in the content. 2.每日提示 - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, a small number of polyester factories made bids, and an individual mainstream supplier sold goods. The August goods were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, and the goods for late September were traded around 09 + 5. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 18 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4670, and the basis of the 09 contract is - 14, with the futures price at a discount [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PTA plants is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing [5]. - **Expectation**: Mainstream suppliers have been continuously selling goods this week, and the spot basis is running weakly. However, due to the continuous low processing margin, there have been more changes in PTA plants recently. In terms of price, the cost side lacks support and the downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season. It is expected that the PTA spot price will move sideways in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range [5]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol was sorted at a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated little during the day, and the spot was traded at a premium of 70 - 79 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. The negotiation in the market was stalemate. In the US dollar market, the price center of ethylene glycol was sorted at a low level, and the recent mainstream trading of vessel cargoes was around 520 - 524 US dollars/ton, with traders' buying moderately following up [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4456, and the basis of the 09 contract is 72, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing [7]. - **Expectation**: The warehousing of ethylene glycol vessels was smooth last week, and it is expected that the visible inventory will increase significantly next Monday. However, the increase in port inventory is not sustainable, and the arrival volume of foreign vessels will decrease around the middle of the month. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is basically balanced in the medium and short term, and the inventory in the main port trade tanks is low. As time goes by, the demand support will gradually strengthen. It is expected that the short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol will be strong [6]. 3.今日关注 No information is provided in the content. 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It details the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol production rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - **Price - related Data**: There are charts and data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, and spot spreads from 2019 - 2025 [14][16][17][19]. - **Inventory Analysis Data**: There are charts and data on the inventory of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers from 2020 - 2025 [40][41][43]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rate Data**: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [51][52][54][56]. - **Profit - related Data**: There are charts and data on PTA processing fees, MEG production margins, and polyester fiber production margins from 2022 - 2025 [59][62][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday, with the spot market negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis stabilizing. The recent macro - atmosphere has cooled down, commodities have corrected, the cost - side support is insufficient, and the downstream terminal demand is weak in the off - season. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market liquidity is relatively abundant, and there is a lack of upward driving force for PTA. However, as the basis weakens, the buying sentiment of traders has slightly recovered, and the downward space is limited. Also, the PTA processing margin was once compressed below 200 this week, and attention should be paid to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened. It is expected that the visible inventory of ethylene glycol may show a phased increase this week. In August, the fundamentals of ethylene glycol are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the increase in domestic output is delayed. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be mainly adjusted in a wide range in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, and attention should be paid to the cost - side and device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.前日回顾 No information provided in the content. 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday, with the spot market negotiation atmosphere being average and the spot basis stabilizing. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 20 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4685, and the 09 - contract basis is - 3, with the futures price at a discount, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main positions**: The net position is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Lack of upward driving force, but limited downward space. Pay attention to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis weakened. The night - session opened higher and adjusted, and the negotiation in the market was light. The market was weak in the morning, and the buying was average. The market stabilized in the afternoon, and the mainstream spot negotiation was around a premium of 67 - 75 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. In US dollars, the center of the external market of ethylene glycol fluctuated weakly, and the recent shipments were negotiated around 522 - 527 US dollars/ton, with the negotiation being stalemate [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4475, and the 09 - contract basis is 79, with the futures price at a discount, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, a decrease of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period, which is bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - **Main positions**: The main net position is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The visible inventory may increase in the short term. It is expected to be adjusted in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the cost - side and device changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 No information provided in the content. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply - demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, output, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, PTA export, total demand, and inventory, etc. [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the supply - demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including the operating rate, output, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, total demand, and port inventory, etc. [11]. - **Price - Related Data**: There are historical price data of PET bottle chips, production profit data, capacity utilization rate data, inventory data, as well as PTA and MEG's inter - month spread, basis, spot spread data, and upstream and downstream operating rate data and profit data of the polyester industry [13][16][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - PTA: Recently, the macro atmosphere has cooled, commodities have corrected, and the cost - end support is insufficient. The downstream terminal is in the off - season with weak demand. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market has sufficient liquidity and lacks upward drivers. However, as the basis weakens, the buying sentiment of traders has slightly recovered, and the downward space is limited. Also, the PTA processing margin was once compressed below 200 this week, and attention should be paid to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival of foreign MEG vessels is relatively concentrated, and the visible inventory is expected to increase periodically. In August, the MEG fundamentals are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the increase in domestic output is delayed. It is expected that MEG will be mainly in a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, and attention should be paid to the cost - end and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 No relevant information provided. 2.每日提示 - PTA: - Fundamentals: The news of Ineos reducing its load during the day boosted the market, and combined with the warming of the commodity atmosphere, the PTA futures market rose rapidly and finally closed up in a volatile manner. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was okay, the spot basis was weak, and a small number of polyester factories made bids. The mainstream suppliers offered August goods. There were transactions at a discount of 20 - 25 to the 09 contract for the middle and early August, and at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract for the late August, with the price negotiation range around 4650 - 4720. The suppliers' August goods were traded at a discount of 20 to the 09 contract. The goods in mid - September were traded at a premium of 0 to the 09 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is at a discount of 21 to the 09 contract [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4675, the basis of the 09 contract is - 49, and the futures is at a discount to the spot [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main positions: Net short positions, and short positions increased [6]. - MEG: - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol remained firm at a high level, and the market transactions were okay. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened higher and consolidated. The spot negotiation was at a premium of 78 - 81 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. During the day, the ethylene glycol market was strong. Traders in the market actively participated in contract replenishment. In the afternoon, the basis of the far - month futures weakened. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol overseas market rose slightly. The mainstream negotiation of recent shipments was at 525 - 530 US dollars/ton, and the shipments during the day were traded at around 526 - 529 US dollars/ton. The inquiry intention in the market was okay. The Taiwan tender goods were traded at around 532 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 3000 tons [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4493, the basis of the 09 contract is 79, and the futures is at a discount to the spot [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared with the previous period [7]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main positions: The main net short positions, and short positions decreased [7]. 3.今日关注 No relevant information provided. 4.基本面数据 - PTA supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. 5.影响因素总结 - Bullish factors: Some PTA devices are planned to be overhauled in August, and the supply - demand expectation is improved [8]. - Bearish factors: From the demand side, at the end of the export rush + domestic off - season, the downward trend of terminal demand is certain [8]. 6.当前主要逻辑和风险点 Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and the upper resistance level should be noted when the market rebounds [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated at a low level yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a weak spot basis. Some mainstream suppliers sold their goods. The supply - demand pattern is okay due to some PTA device shutdowns last week, but the spot basis is weak. Considering the cooling macro - atmosphere, commodity correction, insufficient cost support, and weak downstream demand in the off - season, the PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether there are new changes in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and the market negotiation was general. Due to weather - related delays in vessel arrivals this week, the visible inventory is expected to decline. The ethylene glycol operating rate has rebounded to around 69%, and there is still room for improvement. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation, and the tradable spot in the market will gradually become more abundant. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will be adjusted weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No specific content for the previous day review is provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental aspect: Futures were low - level fluctuating, spot negotiation was general, and basis was weak. 8 - month mainstream transactions were at 09 - 15, 9 - month mid - term at 09 flat, and 9 - month end at 09 + 5. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 15 [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 4700, 09 - contract basis is 2, and the futures price is higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Position of main players: Net short position with an increase in short positions [5]. - Expectation: Short - term price fluctuation, pay attention to new changes in devices under low processing fees [5]. - **MEG** - Fundamental aspect: Price fluctuated narrowly, and market negotiation was general. Spot transactions were in a narrow range, with a premium of 77 - 80 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. The foreign - exchange price also fluctuated narrowly [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 4455, 09 - contract basis is 66, and the spot price is higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Position of main players: Net short position with a decrease in short positions [7]. - Expectation: Short - term weak price adjustment, pay attention to cost - side changes [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No specific content for today's focus is provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes over time [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes [11]. - **Price - related Data**: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and various spreads of bottle chips, as well as the basis, spreads, and price differences of PTA and MEG, and the processing fees and profits of related products, covering the data from 2020 to 2025 [13][16][23][26][29][36]. - **Inventory - related Data**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various polyester products, including factory - level and port - level inventories, from 2021 to 2025 [40][42][49]. - **Operating Rate - related Data**: It presents the operating rate data of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and PTA - related industries from 2020 to 2025 [51][53][55]. - **Profit - related Data**: It includes the processing fees of PTA and the production profits of MEG and various polyester products from 2022 to 2025 [58][61][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, due to planned maintenance of some PTA devices in August, the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. With the significant increase in polyester sales last week and the alleviation of inventory pressure on polyester factories, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the macro - commodity atmosphere and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - For MEG, last week's concentrated arrivals at the main ports are expected to lead to a moderate increase in visible inventory at the beginning of this week. From a fundamental perspective, the supply - demand of MEG will shift to a tight balance in July - August, which is significantly better than the previous market expectations. Driven by the tightening of the supply side and a good macro - atmosphere, the price center of MEG will tend to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of overseas device recovery [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and declined, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis weakened. The mainstream spot basis today is at 09 - 15. The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, changing from long to short [6]. - **MEG**: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened, and the market negotiation was average. During the night session, ethylene glycol was sorted in a narrow range, and a small amount of spot transactions were carried out at a premium of 65 - 68 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The spot basis strengthened in the afternoon, and spot negotiations were around a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol weakened slightly. The inventory in the East China region is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data, as well as changes in inventory and supply - demand gaps [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data [12]. 5. PTA Daily View - The expected improvement in supply - demand due to planned maintenance in August and the alleviation of polyester factory inventory pressure are positive factors. However, from the demand side, the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand lead to a definite weakening trend in terminal demand [5][9]. 6. MEG Daily View - The short - term price center of MEG is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the recovery progress of overseas devices and the impact of weather and ship unloading progress on inventory [8]. 7. Impact Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Planned maintenance of some PTA devices in August, which is expected to improve the supply - demand situation [9]. - **Negative Factors**: On the demand side, the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand lead to a weakening trend in terminal demand [9]. 8. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and when the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10].