交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走弱。12月货在01贴水19附近商谈成交，价格商谈区 间在4975~5060。1月货在05贴水73~77成交。今日主流现货基差在01-19。中性 2、基差：现货5018，05合约基差-76，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.76天，环比减少0.1天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA装置变动较少，供需格局预期尚可，期货盘面则跟随成本端大幅上行，预计短期内PTA现货 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 6、预期：近期PTA装置变动较少，供需格局预期尚可，期货盘面则跟随成本端大幅上行，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震 荡运行，现货基差区间波动。关注油价走势及下游负荷。 2、基差：现货4882，05合约基差-158，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.76天，环比减少0.1天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 MEG 每日观点 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货大幅收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略有松动，个别主流供应商有出货。贸易商商谈为主， 12月货在01贴水15成交，略高在01贴 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，12月货在01-10附近或者05贴水70有成交，个别略高在05贴水55有成交，价格商谈区间在4680~4815。1月货 在05-60~70附近或者01水平成交。2月中上在05-55附近有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-10。中性 2、基差：现货4765，05合约基差-117，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.76天，环比减少0.1天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 空翻多 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA装置变动较少，供需格局预期尚可，部分聚酯工厂阶 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡上涨，现货市场商谈氛围好转，成交放量，1月商谈增多，现货基差偏强。贸易商商谈为主，12月 货主流在01贴水10~12附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4610~4685。下周仓单在01贴水10~15有成交，1月主港在05贴水60~65或者 01贴水2~0有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-11。中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA装置运行平稳，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，带动现货基差走强，期货盘面跟随成本端震荡运行，预计短期内 PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差区间波动。关注油价走势及下游负荷。 2、基差： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月11日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡偏弱，伴随盘面走低，聚酯工厂后点价增多，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，少量聚 酯工厂补货。12月中主港货在01贴水25附近商谈成交，12月下主港在01-20附近成交，个别货源价格略低，价格商谈区间在 4595~4625。今日主流现货基差在01-25。中性 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间波动，期货盘面跟随成本端震荡运行，关注油 价走势及下游需求情况。 2、基差：现货4612，01合约基差-4，盘面升水 中性 3 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。个别聚酯工厂集中补货。12月货在01-25~28有成 交，12月底个别略高在01-20~22附近，价格商谈区间在4610~4650。今日主流现货基差在01-26。中性 2、基差：现货4630，01合约基差-14，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，个别聚酯工厂补货，12月货在01-30~35附近有成交，价格商谈区间在4645~4700。今日主流现货基差在01-32。 中性 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 2、基差：现货4668，01合约基差-10，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间波动，期货盘面跟随成本端震荡运行，关注油 价走势及下游需求情况。 MEG 每日观点 MEG： 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, the bid - ask was stalemate, and the futures price followed the cost side to fluctuate upward. The supply - demand pattern changed little, and attention should be paid to the cost side and downstream polyester production and sales [5]. - For MEG, there will be a concentrated arrival of Saudi and Canadian goods in early December, and the visible inventory will remain high. The supply - demand pattern has been repaired to a basic balance this month. It is expected that the MEG market will undergo wide - range adjustments in the short term, and attention should be paid to temporary device changes and annual contract negotiations [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the price rebounds [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated upward, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis was stalemate, mainly with traders' negotiations. The price negotiation range of the main port goods in December was around 4670 - 4740, and the mainstream spot basis today was 01 - 33 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4705, the 01 contract basis was - 57, and the futures price was at a premium, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared with the previous period, which was a bullish factor [5]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish [5]. - **Main positions**: The net long positions increased, which was bullish [5]. - **Expectation**: Pay attention to the cost side and downstream polyester production and sales [5]. 3.2 MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated strongly, and the market negotiation was fair. The intraday futures price first rose and then fell slightly, and the buying sentiment improved. The overseas price of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 3897, the 01 contract basis was 15, and the futures price was at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 70.7 tons, an increase of 7.2 tons compared with the previous period, which was a bearish factor [7]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which was bearish [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short positions increased, which was bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Pay attention to temporary device changes and annual contract negotiations [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish factors**: The 2.5 - million - ton PTA Honggang device stopped at the beginning of the week, and the 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng device is gradually shutting down. The Zhengdaokai of MEG implemented maintenance this week, and the domestic ethylene glycol load continued to decline slightly to below 71%. There is still room for the domestic load to decline [8]. - **Bearish factors**: There will be a concentrated arrival of Saudi and Canadian goods in early December for MEG, and the visible inventory will remain high [9]. 3.4 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity, output, supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand gap showed certain fluctuations. For example, in 2024, the production capacity increased from 8062 to 8812, and the output also changed accordingly, with an increase from 591 in January to 637 in December [10]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production, import, supply, demand, port inventory, and supply - demand gap of ethylene glycol also showed certain fluctuations. For example, in 2024, the total supply increased from 209 in January to 237 in December [11]. 3.6 Price - related Charts - There are multiple price - related charts, including PTA and MEG price trends, basis, inter - month spreads, and spot spreads, which reflect the price changes of PTA, MEG, and related products from 2021 to 2025 [13][23][30]. 3.7 Inventory - related Charts - There are inventory - related charts for PTA, MEG, polyester, and polyester fibers, showing the inventory changes of these products from 2021 to 2025 [40][45]. 3.8 Production - related Charts - There are production - related charts for polyester upstream and downstream, including the start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, and polyester, which reflect the production situation from 2021 to 2025 [52][56]. 3.9 Profit - related Charts - There are profit - related charts for PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, showing the profit trends of these products from 2022 to 2025 [58][61][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, recent supply reduction is more than expected, polyester load is strong, and India's BIS cancellation boosts export demand, reversing the inventory accumulation expectation and potentially leading to phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, this week's main port arrivals are moderately low, and port inventory may slightly compress early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, putting pressure on some short - process oil chemical plants. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures fluctuated and closed down, spot market negotiation was average, and the spot basis loosened. Different delivery - time spot had corresponding transaction prices and basis. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 36 [5]. - Basis: Spot price is 4615, 01 - contract basis is - 17, and the futures price is at a premium [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main - force position: Net long position, with long positions decreasing [5]. - Expectation: Supply reduction, strong polyester load, and increased export demand may lead to de - stocking, and the spot basis is strong. The absolute price follows the cost - end [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: On Thursday, the price fluctuated and weakened, and the basis continued to decline. Spot and foreign - exchange prices had corresponding performances [8]. - Basis: Spot price is 3889, 01 - contract basis is 16, and the futures price is at a discount [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 70.7 tons, an increase of 7.2 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main - force position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [8]. - Expectation: Port arrivals are moderately low this week, and inventory may slightly decrease next week. However, there are still arrival plans in early December. The price is at a low level, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents PTA's production capacity, output, consumption, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity utilization, supply - demand gap, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows ethylene glycol's total production, new - added capacity, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, supply - demand gap, and inventory changes [13]. - **Price**: Lists the prices of various products on November 27 and 26, 2025, including spot and futures prices of PTA, MEG, and related products, as well as processing fees and profits [14]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Displays historical inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products, including factory inventory and port inventory [44][46]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates**: Shows the historical start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester, and related industries [56][58][60]. - **Profit Analysis**: Presents the historical profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester products, including processing fees and production profits [64][67][70].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货区间震荡，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，少量聚酯工厂有递盘，11月商谈为主，12月商 谈转淡。个别供应商有出货。11月在01贴水65~71附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4600~4660附近。12月底在01-52附近有成交。 今日主流现货基差在01-69。中性 6、预期：近期贸易商活跃度偏低，不过个别聚酯工厂递盘，现货基差略有走强，加工差仍处低位，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟 随成本端震荡为主，现货基差区间波动，关注装置变动情况。 2、基差：现货4633，01合约基差-63，盘面升水 中性 ...