交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货区间震荡，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，少量聚酯工厂有递盘，11月商谈为主，12月商 谈转淡。个别供应商有出货。11月在01贴水65~71附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4600~4660附近。12月底在01-52附近有成交。 今日主流现货基差在01-69。中性 6、预期：近期贸易商活跃度偏低，不过个别聚酯工厂递盘，现货基差略有走强，加工差仍处低位，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟 随成本端震荡为主，现货基差区间波动，关注装置变动情况。 2、基差：现货4633，01合约基差-63，盘面升水 中性 ...

（编辑 王雪儿） 证券日报网讯 万凯新材11月18日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，瓶片行业于7月份启动反内卷以 来，公司严格落实行业倡议，公司部分装置按照年度检修计划及运行安排开展检修，整体装置负荷有所 下降。目前，PET行业整体供需结构持续改善，行业加工费水平呈现良好的回升态势，经营情况稳中向 好。关于股价波动，受到市场环境、行业情绪及资金面等多重因素综合作用所致，敬请注意投资风险。 公司将继续坚持稳健经营，以经营业绩和长期价值增长回馈投资者。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **PTA**: The spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mainly among traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the market sentiment is cautious. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - **MEG**: This week, the arrival of foreign - sourced vessels is concentrated, and the supply of imports this month is abundant. The inventory of subsequent trade circulation will be replenished. Fundamentally, the expectation of long - term supply surplus persists, and the market sentiment is under pressure. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will weaken in the near future. Attention should be paid to cost and device changes [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market improved slightly compared with the previous day. The spot basis was weak, and the buying from traders increased. The negotiation was mainly among traders during the day, with sporadic bids from polyester factories. The mainstream for next week was negotiated and traded at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was around 4470 - 4540. There were transactions at a discount of 70 - 75 to the 01 contract for mid - November. The mainstream spot basis today was 01 - 77. A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China stopped, and the restart time is undetermined. A new 3 - million - ton PTA device was put into production in mid - October and is currently operating normally [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4510, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 90, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PTA factories was 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous period, indicating a bullish situation [6]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish situation [6]. - **Main positions**: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol moderately increased at a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The ethylene glycol opened lower and consolidated at night. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. During the day, the ethylene glycol market rose slightly, and the spot basis strengthened to a premium of 73 - 74 yuan/ton to the 01 contract in the afternoon. The trading of near - term goods was the main activity. In terms of US dollars, the center of the external ethylene glycol market strengthened slightly at a low level. The cargo arriving at the port next week was traded at around 466 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the negotiation of near - term cargo rebounded to around 469 - 472 US dollars/ton. The buying sentiment at low levels improved [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 3982, and the basis of the 01 contract was 68, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with the previous period, indicating a bearish situation [9]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [9]. - **Main positions**: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish situation [9]. 3.3今日关注 No relevant content provided. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand and the inventory - consumption ratio [13]. - **Ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand and the inventory - consumption ratio [14]. 3.5影响因素总结 - **Positive factors**: A new 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China was put into production last weekend and has started to produce [10]. - **Negative factors**: The 3.6 - million - ton production capacity of Yisheng New Materials reached full load, and the production capacities of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices increased [11]. 3.6当前主要逻辑和风险点 Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the market rebounds [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mainly with traders' negotiations and few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate following the cost side, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center is expected to weaken in the near term. This week, the arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated, and the import supply is abundant this month. The long - term supply surplus expectation persists, putting pressure on the market sentiment. Attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - side. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the rebound of the disk, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis loosened. Trades were mainly between traders, with individual polyester factories making inquiries. There were transactions at different basis levels for different delivery times. The current mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 73. The inventory of PTA factories decreased by 0.04 days to 4.03 days, and the 20 - day moving average is upward with the closing price above it. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. In the short term, prices are expected to follow the cost side to fluctuate [5][6]. - **MEG**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the market negotiation was average. The morning session saw a weak and volatile disk, and the spot was traded at a premium of 74 - 78 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Around noon, the disk dropped rapidly, and the spot was traded at a low of below 4040 yuan/ton. The afternoon market was mainly in a low - level adjustment. The external market price of ethylene glycol also weakened. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.7 tons to 49.8 tons, and the 20 - day moving average is downward with the closing price below it. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. This week, the arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated, and the import supply this month is abundant. The long - term supply surplus expectation persists [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, including changes in production capacity, load, and supply - demand gap in different months [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, including changes in production capacity, load, and supply - demand difference in different months [12]. 3.5. Price - There are multiple price - related charts, including bottle - chip spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, MEG basis, spot spread, and inventory analysis of related products from 2020 - 2025 [14][28][31][35][38][40] - **Bottle - Chip**: It includes the spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, and inventory of PET bottle - chips [14][17][21][22] - **PTA**: It involves the basis, inter - month spread, and processing fee of PTA [28][24][60] - **MEG**: It includes the inter - month spread, basis, and profit of MEG [31][35][61] - **Polyester Products**: It shows the production profit of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) [64][65][67] - **Upstream and Downstream of Polyester**: It presents the operating rates of the upstream (PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) of the polyester industry [51][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The industry meeting had no substantial conclusions. The PTA futures fluctuated downward in the afternoon, and the spot market negotiation atmosphere weakened. The spot basis rose and then fell. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost - end in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward on Thursday, and the market transaction was acceptable. The port inventory is expected to increase significantly this week, and the spot flow will be supplemented. It is expected that the short - term price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted within a range, with continuous upward pressure [7]. - Overall: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and the upper resistance level should be noted when the market rebounds [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: - Fundamental: After the industry meeting, the market situation changed as described above. The 11th - middle of November was traded at a discount of 69 - 72 to the 01 contract, and the 12th - middle of December was traded at a discount of 50 to the 01 contract. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 71 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4530, and the 01 contract basis is - 40, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous period, showing a bullish situation [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish situation [6]. - Main Position: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish tendency [5]. - Expectation: Driven by the downstream polyester sales this week, the PTA spot basis strengthened slightly, and the market transaction center gradually shifted to November [5]. - MEG: - Fundamental: The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward on Thursday. The domestic supply will be abundant in the later period. After the delivery cycle ends, the spot buying in the trading link will also weaken [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4145, and the 01 contract basis is 113, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 49.8 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons compared with the previous period, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Main Position: The main net short position decreased, showing a bearish tendency [7]. - Expectation: The port inventory is expected to increase significantly this week, and the short - term price center will be adjusted within a range [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, output, supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [12]. - Price - related Data: It includes the spot price, production profit, production capacity utilization rate, inventory, basis, and price difference data of bottle chips, PTA, MEG, and other products from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the price trends and market conditions of different products [15][18][22]. - Inventory Analysis Data: It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the inventory levels and trends of different products [41]. - Production Start - up Data: It includes the production start - up data of the upstream and downstream of polyester from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the production activities and market supply - demand relationships of different links in the polyester industry chain [52][56]. - Profit Data: It includes the profit data of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, and other products from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the profitability and market competitiveness of different products [61][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the spot basis has strengthened slightly due to the boost in downstream polyester sales this week. The market transaction focus has gradually shifted to November. In terms of absolute prices, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated this week, and port inventories are expected to increase significantly. The overall inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter is around 400,000 tons, and domestic supply will be abundant in the later period. After the delivery cycle ends, spot buying in the trading sector will also weaken. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term, with continuous upward pressure [8]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and resistance levels above need to be monitored when the market rebounds [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 PTA - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, and the spot basis strengthened. Traders were the main participants in the negotiation. Some mainstream suppliers sold goods. There were transactions at a discount of around 80 to the 01 contract this week, 72 - 77 next week, 70 in mid - November, 65 - 68 in late November, 50 in late December, and 56 for this week's warehouse receipts. Today's mainstream spot basis is at a discount of 76 to the 01 contract [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4535, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 101, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.07 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared to the previous period, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is decreasing, showing a slightly bearish situation [6]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and adjusted. The spot basis strengthened in the afternoon. The night - session opened lower and then rose, with light negotiation in the market. In the morning, the market was mainly in a weak correction. Spot negotiation and transactions were around a premium of 66 - 72 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the buying of recent goods was active, and the spot basis strengthened to around a premium of 80 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, with fair trading in the market. In the US dollar market, the center of the external market of ethylene glycol adjusted slightly. Near noon, recent shipments fell to around 488 - 490 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in inquiries at low prices. In the afternoon, the market rebounded, and recent shipments were negotiated at around 492 - 493 US dollars/ton, with slightly stalemated negotiation [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4158, and the basis of the 01 contract is 58, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 481,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared to the previous period, which is a positive factor [9]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a negative factor [9]. - **Main positions**: The main net short position is increasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. 3.3今日关注 - **Positive factors**: A new 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China was put into production last weekend and has started to produce products [10]. - **Negative factors**: The 3.6 - million - ton capacity of Yisheng New Materials has reached full load, and the capacities of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plants have increased [11]. 3.4基本面数据 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory changes [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on EG production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, port inventory, and inventory changes [14]. 3.5 Other Data The report also includes data on bottle - chip prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, spot spreads, inventory of related products in the polyester industry chain, upstream and downstream operating rates, and profit margins from 2020 to 2025 [16 - 64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the spot basis is expected to have limited downside as new device production nears, approaching risk - free arbitrage, and with some mainstream PTA suppliers reducing device loads. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. - For MEG, although there is some replenishment demand at low prices, the fundamental pattern remains weak with obvious oversupply in the long - term. The price is expected to run weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent polyester loads and device changes [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On the previous day, PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. Different delivery periods had different transaction price ranges and basis levels. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 88 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4325, the 01 - contract basis is - 89, and the market is at a premium, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period, showing a bullish situation [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **Expectation**: With new device production imminent, the spot basis will continue to weaken, but the downside is limited. The absolute price will follow the cost side in the short term [5]. 3.2 MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price was adjusted at a low level. The night - session was weak, and low - level buying increased. The morning session fluctuated upward, and the afternoon session weakened slightly. The foreign market price also fluctuated at a low level [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4090, the 01 - contract basis is 86, and the market is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.5 tons, an increase of 4.99 tons compared to the previous period, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Expectation**: Although there is some buying support at low prices, the fundamental pattern is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly in the short term [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Before the holiday, due to increased demand and rising oil prices, the polyester market sales were booming. The inventory of POY and FDY decreased rapidly, and prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, polyester prices were stable [9]. - **Negative Factors**: The 360 - million - ton load of Yisheng New Materials was fully increased, and the loads of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices were also increased [10]. 3.4 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [11]. 3.5 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents PTA's production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.6 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Displays ethylene glycol's production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level needs to be monitored for the rebound of the market [10]. - For PTA, although the spot basis weakened due to the resumption of some device loads and new device commissioning last week, it is close to the risk - free arbitrage level. With the load reduction of some mainstream PTA suppliers' devices, the downward space of the basis is expected to be limited. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory is expected to remain stable at the beginning of this week. Although the spot supply is abundant due to the continuous recovery of the load last week, there is replenishment demand at the low price, so the price center is expected to adjust at a low level in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: On Friday, individual devices unexpectedly reduced their loads, and the basis slightly strengthened during the day session. The October cargo was traded at a discount of 80 - 85 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was around 4310 - 4370. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 85 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4340, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 62, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main position: Net short position with an increase in short positions [5]. - Expectation: The basis is expected to have limited downward space, and the absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term. Pay attention to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the market basis slightly strengthened. The intraday futures price opened high and then declined. Some traders with contract gaps participated in replenishment at low prices. The spot basis moderately strengthened in the afternoon, and the spot was traded at a premium of 75 - 78 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The overseas price center also weakened [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4096, and the basis of the 01 contract is 93, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.5 tons, an increase of 4.99 tons compared to the previous period [6]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main position: Net short position with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: The port inventory is expected to remain stable at the beginning of this week. The price center is expected to adjust at a low level in the short term. Pay attention to the polyester load and device changes [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity gradually increased, and the production and demand also showed certain fluctuations. For example, in October 2025, the production capacity was 9172, the output was 647, and the total demand was 669 [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total supply and demand of ethylene glycol also changed. In October 2025, the total supply was 252, and the total demand was 249 [12]. Price Data - On October 17, 2025, compared with the previous day, the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers showed different degrees of change. For example, the spot price of naphtha increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton, while the CCFEI price index of PTA decreased by 40 to 4330 yuan/ton [13]. Inventory Data - The inventory of PTA factories, MEG ports, and various polyester products showed different trends from 2021 to 2025 [41][43][49]. Production Rate Data - The production rates of PTA, PX, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms showed different trends from 2020 to 2025 [52][54][56][58]. Profit Data - The processing fees and profits of PTA, MEG, and various polyester products showed different trends from 2022 to 2025 [13][60][62][64][66][67]. 5. Impact Factor Summary - Bullish factors: Before the festival, the polyester market sales were booming under the resonance of demand recovery and oil price rebound. The inventory of POY and FDY decreased rapidly, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. The 2.2 - million - ton device of Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load [8][9]. - Bearish factors: The 3.6 - million - ton device of Yisheng New Materials reached full load, and the loads of 3.2 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang and 2.5 - million - ton device of Weilian Chemical increased [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: The spot market negotiation atmosphere is average, and the news of new device production further suppresses market expectations. The spot basis continues to weaken. It is expected that the spot price will fluctuate mainly following the cost side in the short term. Pay attention to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. - **MEG**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has rebounded to around 540,000 tons this week, and the weekly arrival volume is neutral. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is weak in October, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in the far - month. The future spot liquidity will be loose. The current price cannot squeeze out effective supply, which makes the market sentiment weak. It is expected that the ethylene glycol market will operate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to external factors and device changes [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No specific content for previous day review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. The mainstream price of October goods was at a discount of 85 to the 01 contract, with individual transactions slightly higher at 01 - 80 and slightly lower at 01 - 90, and the price negotiation range was around 4,325 - 4,380. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 85 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,360, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 96, with the contract price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Position**: Net short position, and short positions are increasing [6]. - **MEG**: - **Fundamentals**: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol rose slightly, and the market negotiation was acceptable. In the night session, ethylene glycol opened slightly higher and then declined, and the market negotiation was weak. During the day, the ethylene glycol disk was firm and rising due to news, and the spot basis strengthened synchronously in the afternoon. At the end of the session, the spot transaction was at a premium of 72 - 73 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol was firm and rising, and the trading volume of near - ocean tender goods increased. In the morning, the negotiation and transaction price of recent cargoes was around 481 - 486 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, the disk adjusted slightly, and the negotiation price of recent cargoes was around 488 - 490 US dollars/ton. Traders participated in the transaction. There were transactions of tender goods from Taiwan and South Korea during the day, with a cargo volume of around 17,000 tons [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,126, and the basis of the 01 contract is 37, with the spot price higher than the contract price [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 495,000 tons, an increase of 49,900 tons compared to the previous period [9]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [9]. - **Main Position**: Net short position, and short positions are decreasing [9]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary**: - **Positive Factors**: Before the festival, driven by the rebound of demand and oil prices, the polyester market sales were booming. The equity inventory of POY and FDY in the front - spinning of filament decreased rapidly to about half a month, and the price rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the festival, the polyester price was stable, and the filament production and sales were only 10% - 20%. It is estimated that the average inventory accumulation in 8 days is more than 5 days. Some PTA device overhauls and capacity reduction, and the new device production is postponed [10][11]. - **Negative Factors**: A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently gradually increasing to over 90% capacity, and this device reduced its load around October 7 [12]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Pay attention to the cost side, and for the disk rebound, pay attention to the upper resistance level [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [15]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot prices of naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filaments, and short - fibers, as well as the futures prices and basis of PTA and ethylene glycol, and the processing fees and profits of related products [16]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, ethylene glycol, PET chips, and polyester products from 2021 to 2025 [44][46]. - **Industry Start - up Rate**: It shows the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [55][57][59][61]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the profits of PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filaments, and short - fibers from 2022 to 2025 [63][65][67][69][70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. With some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, and the postponement of new device production, the PTA supply - demand outlook improved. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival at the main port of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory is expected to rise early next week. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turns to inventory accumulation, with an overall accumulation of about 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol market will operate weakly. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated at a low level yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis was weak. The trading was mainly among traders, and the polyester factories' purchasing enthusiasm was limited. The mainstream price for October goods was negotiated and traded at around 85 points discount to the 01 contract, with individual prices slightly higher, and the price negotiation range was around 4,305 - 4,345. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 85 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,325, the basis of the 01 contract is - 97, and the futures price is at a premium. It is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.22 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 days. It is bearish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [6]. - Main position: The net short position increased. It is bearish [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a low range, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened lower and consolidated, and the trading in the market was weak. In the morning, affected by the news of additional port charges for existing ships, the ethylene glycol disk rose slightly, and then the market maintained a narrow - range shock. In the afternoon, the basis fell slightly, and the spot was traded at around a 63 - 65 yuan/ton premium to the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level. The recent cargo was negotiated at around 483 - 487 US dollars/ton, and there were transactions at around 484 US dollars/ton for recent cargo during the day. The trading was mainly participated by traders [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,122, the basis of the 01 contract is 65, and the futures price is at a discount. It is neutral [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 445,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons. It is bearish [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [8]. - Main position: The main net short position decreased. It is bearish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Positive Factors** - Before the holiday, driven by the recovery of demand and the rebound of oil prices, the sales of the polyester market were booming. The equity inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn quickly decreased to about half a month, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester prices were stable, and the production and sales of filament yarn were only 10% - 20%. The average inventory accumulation in 8 days is expected to exceed 5 days [9]. - Some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, and the postponement of new device production [10]. - **Negative Factors** - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently gradually increasing its operation to over 90%. This device reduced its load around October 7 [11]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points** - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the disk rebounds [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It records the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand gap and inventory changes [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It records the ethylene glycol production, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand gap and port inventory changes [14]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price trends of bottle - grade chips, production margins, operating rates, inventory, spreads, and other data from 2020 to 2025, covering PTA, MEG, and polyester products [16][19][23][24][26][30][33][37][40][42][51][53][57][62][63][66].