交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差偏强，个别聚酯工厂递盘。个别主流供应商有出货。本 周在01贴水40~45附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4605~4655附近。12月中旬及下旬01-35~40附近有成交。今日主流现货基差在 01-43。中性 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期伴随PTA供应减量较预期增加、聚酯负荷坚挺且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求， PTA累库预期扭转，不排除阶段 性去库，PTA现货基差表现强势。不过绝对价格仍跟随成本端运行，关注装置变动情况。 MEG： 5、 ...

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 原油 本月OPEC+会议决定在12月增产13.7万桶/日，并在2026年一季度暂停增产，下次会议将于11月30日举行。原油需求旺季结束，美国原油 累库幅度增加。乌克兰使用无人机袭击了俄罗斯的石油储存设施及多处炼油设施，叠加美国对俄罗斯的卢克公司的制裁宽限期结束，自11月21 日开始，所有与该公司的交易均被禁止，预计将进一步制约俄罗斯石油的出口规模，地缘摩擦对俄油供应的担忧持续为油价提供支撑。市场情绪 上对未来原油供应过剩格形成共识，预计原油价格走势偏弱震荡。 PX&PTA 印度BIS认证取消，PX国内整体负荷达维持高位，市场再度炒作调油套利，需求端PTA新增产能释放而表现尚佳，供需格局偏紧，PXN价格 持稳在250美元左右，预计PX价格跟随原油价格震荡。周内PTA两套装置停车检修，周开工率下降到74.29%，聚酯负荷高位持稳，周内产销有 放量。当前反内卷情绪再起，但在实质政策落地前，年前格局供增需弱，有小幅累库预期。PTA加工差修复仍低位运行，预计短期内依旧跟随成 本端震荡为主。 MEG 国内乙二醇整体负荷小幅下降，但有新置试车进一步增强了市 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货区间震荡，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，少量聚酯工厂有递盘，11月商谈为主，12月商 谈转淡。个别供应商有出货。11月在01贴水65~71附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4600~4660附近。12月底在01-52附近有成交。 今日主流现货基差在01-69。中性 6、预期：近期贸易商活跃度偏低，不过个别聚酯工厂递盘，现货基差略有走强，加工差仍处低位，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟 随成本端震荡为主，现货基差区间波动，关注装置变动情况。 2、基差：现货4633，01合约基差-63，盘面升水 中性 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差略走强，远月基差抬升。贸易商商谈为主，个别主流供 应商出货，11月在01贴水70附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4590~4690附近。12月初在01贴水65~68有成交，12月下在01贴水52 附近有成交，个别偏低。今日主流现货基差在01-70。中性 5、主力持仓：净多 空翻多 偏多 6、预期：近期贸易商活跃度偏低，不过个别聚酯工厂递盘，现货基差略有走强，加工差仍处低位，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟 随成本端震荡为主，现货基差区间波动，关注装置变动情况。 2、 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年11月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，11月主流在01贴水75附近商谈成交，个别略低，价格商谈区间在4610~4660附近。12月初在01-71有成交。今 日主流现货基差在01-75。中性 2、基差：现货4637，01合约基差-63，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.97天，环比减少0.12天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA现货基差维持低位运行，贸易商活跃性降低，聚酯工厂递盘稀少，不过在成本端及印度取消BIS认证利好支撑 下，PTA现货价格整体偏强震荡，但加工差仍处低位，预计短期内跟随成本端震荡为主，现货基差区间波动，关注装置变动情 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The market has reached a consensus on the oversupply of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. PX and PTA are expected to follow the crude oil price fluctuations. MEG is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The price rebounds of BZ and EB may not be sustainable [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - The OPEC+ meeting decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The peak demand season is over, US crude oil inventories are rising, and production is at a record high. The market is concerned about Russian oil exports [4] PX & PTA - Domestic PX load is at a high of 90%, with multiple units restarting and increasing load. PTA has new capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is tight. PXN is stable at around $250/ton. PTA has many unit shutdowns for maintenance, with a weekly开工率 of 75.8%. There is an expectation of supply increase and demand weakness before the end of the year, with a slight inventory build - up [4][8][14] MEG - The overall load of ethylene glycol has changed little. Coal - based MEG profits are shrinking, and the开工 rate is decreasing. Cost support is weakening, port inventories are at a high, and it is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [5][18] BZ & EB - The pure benzene开工率 is rising, and future planned maintenance is limited. Downstream demand is weakening, but overseas blending oil demand may provide some support. Benzene ethylene开工率 is recovering, and the short - term supply contraction effect may fade. The fundamentals of BZ and EB have limited positives, and price rebounds may not be sustainable [5][26][27] Polyester - The average weekly产能利用率 of the Chinese polyester industry is 87.52%, with little change. Downstream polyester short - fiber and long - fiber inventories are slightly decreasing. The comprehensive开工率 of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile industry is 67.99%, and new orders are weakening [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: Affected by the cancellation of India's BIS certification for PTA and the news of PX blending demand in the market, the PX futures market rose at the end of the session, and PTA followed suit. The PTA futures closed slightly higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis fluctuated within a range. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost side in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the device [6]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level on Thursday, and the market negotiation was average. The port inventory of ethylene glycol this week has rebounded to around 660,000 tons, and the arrival of foreign ships in the middle of the month is still concentrated. It is expected to be mainly in shock consolidation, with obvious pressure on the upper side [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found 3.2 Daily Tips - No relevant content found 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant content found 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Fundamental Data** - Spot price: 4,565, 01 contract basis -135, the futures price is higher than the spot price, neutral [7]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared with the previous period, bullish [7]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, bullish [7]. - Main position: Net long, changing from short to long, bullish [7]. - **MEG Fundamental Data** - Spot price: 3,943, 01 contract basis 51, the spot price is higher than the futures price, neutral [10]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 622,000 tons, an increase of 57,000 tons compared with the previous period, bearish [10]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, bearish [10]. - Main position: The main net long position is decreasing, bullish [9]. 3.5 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity shows an increasing trend, with a total increase of about 1.41 million tons. PTA production and demand also show certain fluctuations, and the inventory at the end of the period also changes accordingly [12]. 3.6 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol show an overall increasing trend, and the consumption also shows a certain upward trend. The port inventory also fluctuates [13]. 3.7 Price - The report presents the price trends of PET bottle chips, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, MEG basis, spot spread, etc. from 2021 to 2025 through charts [15][25][32] 3.8 Inventory Analysis - The report shows the inventory trends of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fiber through charts, including factory inventory and port inventory [42][44][47] 3.9 Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up - The report shows the start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions from 2021 to 2025 through charts [54][56][58] 3.10 Profit - The report shows the profit trends of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester fiber production from 2022 to 2025 through charts [60][63][65]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for PTA is neutral [5]. - The investment rating for PX is neutral [6]. - The investment rating for ethylene glycol (MEG) is neutral, with a cautious - bearish view on the spread and supply, and a cautious - bullish view on processing profit [7]. Group 2: Core Views - PTA: Anticipation leads the way. With a relatively favorable pattern, funds show preference. Currently, PXN has rebounded to a relatively high level. Limited driving force under seasonal inventory accumulation. Pay attention to opportunities for low - buying on pullbacks [5]. - PX: The expected pattern is acceptable. PXN is stable and strong. Short - term valuation is not low. The outlook is positive. Consider low - buying on pullbacks [6]. - MEG: There is a slight increase in maintenance. Valuation is not high, but short - term supply is difficult to clear. In the seasonal inventory accumulation phase, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Spot**: The negotiation atmosphere in the PTA spot market is rather light. The spot basis is relatively stable. The offer in November is around 01 - 75, the bid is around 01 - 80, and the price negotiation range is around 4590 - 4605 [5]. - **Cost**: The expected pattern of PX is not bad. PXN is stable and strong at around $245, and the valuation is not low [5]. - **Device Changes**: There are significant planned maintenance in November. Ineos, Sichuan Energy Investment, and Dushan No.1 are under maintenance. Honggang and YS Ningbo have maintenance plans [5]. - **Downstream Demand**: Demand has slightly weakened from the high level. Polyester load remains stable at 91.3%. Sales volume has increased during the week. Polyester inventory pressure is not large. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 86%, 76%, and 82% respectively. The estimated polyester operating rates for October and November are 91% and 90.5% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The pressure from November to December is not large. Supply and demand are facing seasonal inventory accumulation [5]. - **Processing Profit**: The PTA - Brent oil price spread is at a low level. PXN has reached over $240, which is not low. PTA processing fees remain at a low level [5]. PX - **Spot**: The negotiation of PX floating prices is deadlocked. There are sell - orders at +1 in the market for December, and it is estimated to be in the range of - 2/0 [6]. - **Device Changes**: The overall domestic PX load is close to the high level of 90%. One line of Fujia has restarted. Wushi Petrochemical, Weilian, and Sinochem Quanzhou have slightly increased their loads [6]. - **Import**: The Asian load is 80%. Thailand's PTTG has slightly reduced its load. Taiwan's FCFC device has restarted. Saudi Arabian devices are under maintenance [6]. - **Downstream Demand**: Demand orders are acceptable, but the marginal demand has slightly weakened. The weaving load remains stable. Polyester load remains stable at 91.3%. Polyester inventory pressure is not large [6]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance pressure from November to December is not large. It is expected that there will be little pressure on PX before the first half of 2026 [6]. - **Processing Profit**: PXN is stable and strong. Currently, PXN is around $245 [6]. MEG - **Spot**: The negotiation in the MEG market is average. Currently, the spot basis is at a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The negotiation price is 3963 - 3965 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract is traded at a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton [7]. - **Device Changes**: The domestic maintenance load of ethylene glycol has slightly decreased. The overall load is 72%, and the coal - chemical load is 72%. Shenghong is under maintenance. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical will restart in mid - November. Fude and Sinochem Quanzhou plan to conduct maintenance in December. Coal - based Yankuang is under maintenance. One line of Shaanxi Coal Yulin is under maintenance. Sinochem is under maintenance. Zhengdaikai plans to conduct maintenance for 10 days in mid - November. Henan Energy Puyang plans to restart in late November [7]. - **Import**: The port inventory is 660,000 tons. The expected arrival volume is not low, and inventory accumulation is expected next week. Overseas devices: Taiwan's Nan Ya is under maintenance. Malaysia's Petronas is shut down. Canada's Shell has restarted [7]. - **Downstream Demand**: The polyester load is 91.3%, indicating good demand. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 88%, 75%, and 80% respectively. Orders have slightly declined from the high level [7]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The inventory accumulation pressure in October is not large. The supply pressure from November to December is relatively large, and there is an increasing seasonal expected inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - **Processing Profit**: Prices have declined significantly. Oil - based production is in a loss, and coal - based production is on the verge of loss [7].

Report Title PTA&MEG Morning Report - November 13, 2025 [1] Core Views - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost side in the short term, with attention to device changes [5]. - MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with obvious upside pressure [7]. Summary by Section 1. PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures closed slightly lower yesterday, with a light trading atmosphere in the spot market and fluctuating spot basis. The expected price will follow the cost side to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4592, and the basis of the 01 contract is -78, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is bearish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, which is bearish [5]. 2. MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol market price was sorted out at a low level, and the spot basis weakened. The futures price fluctuated widely at night [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3953, and the basis of the 01 contract is 62, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China has risen to around 660,000 tons, and there is still room for further accumulation in the short term, which is bearish [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is decreasing, which is bullish [7]. 3. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Weilian Chemical's 2.5 million - ton capacity reduced its load, and Ineos' 1.1 million - ton and Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton capacities stopped production [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Yisheng Dalian's 3.75 - million - ton capacity restored its load, and Zhongtai's 1.2 million - ton capacity increased its load to 70% [9]. 4. Price - **Spot Prices**: The price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton; the price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Taiwan decreased by 17 to 824 dollars/ton; the price of PTA remained unchanged at 4282 yuan/ton; the price of MEG remained unchanged at 3942 yuan/ton [12]. - **Futures Prices**: TA01 increased by 22 to 4670 yuan/ton; EG01 increased by 16 to 3891 yuan/ton [12]. 5. Inventory Analysis - **PTA**: The factory inventory available days in China are presented in a long - term data chart [40]. - **MEG**: The port inventory in East China is presented in a long - term data chart [40]. 6. Profit - **PTA Processing Fee**: It decreased by 421.295 to 18.18 yuan/ton [12]. - **MEG Profits**: The profits of various production methods such as naphtha - based MEG all decreased [12]. - **Polyester Product Profits**: The profits of POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester staple fiber showed different degrees of change [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mainly dominated by traders, with few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis runs at a low level near the risk - free arbitrage, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. It is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory of ethylene glycol has rebounded to around 660,000 tons this week, and the arrival of foreign ships in the middle of the month is still concentrated. There is still room for further accumulation of port inventory in the short term. From the perspective of the supply - demand structure, there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol, and the extrusion of the supply side is difficult to be reflected in the short term. The future spot liquidity will gradually become abundant. The coal market has been rising recently, providing some support to the cost link. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate mainly, with obvious pressure on the upper side [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fell in the late trading yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was relatively dull, the spot basis fluctuated in the range, and a small number of polyester factories made bids. The negotiation and transaction prices in November were around 4,580 - 4,620 at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract. There was a transaction at 01 - 73 at the beginning of December. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 77 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,604, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PTA factories is 4.09 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 days, which is bearish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased, which is bearish [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward, and the basis was stable and slightly weak. The ethylene glycol market adjusted narrowly at night. Some spot transactions were made at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The ethylene glycol market weakened during the day, and the spot price at the low end was around 3,940 yuan/ton. The basis was slightly adjusted to a premium of 66 - 67 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the US dollar market, the price center of ethylene glycol in the external market weakened. The negotiation price of recent shipments in the morning was around 470 US dollars/ton, and it fell to around 465 US dollars/ton in the afternoon. The buying sentiment in the market was weak, and there were few transactions [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3,979, and the basis of the 01 contract is 104, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 567,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,000 tons, which is bearish [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net long position decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, and other aspects from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes in supply and demand, inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [9]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It shows the data of ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, port inventory, and other aspects from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes in supply and demand, inventory changes, and supply - demand gaps [10]. Price and Basis Data - **Spot Price**: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers on November 11 and 10, 2025, and their price changes are provided, as well as the basis data of PTA and MEG futures contracts [11]. - **Profit Data**: The profit data of PTA processing, MEG production from different raw materials (naphtha, ethylene, methanol, coal), and polyester fiber production (POY, FDY, DTY, short - fiber) are provided [11]. Other Data There are also data on PET bottle - chip price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG price spreads, inventory, and the start - up rates of the upstream and downstream of the polyester industry [13][17][22][28][35][38][50][54]