大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年8月25日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： MEG 每日观点 MEG： 6、预期：8月下旬乙二醇港口到货稀少，叠加近期主港提货有所好转，近两周港口库存仍将保持下降趋势。9月初起外盘到货将呈 现增量。乙二醇基本面暂无突出矛盾，港存低位以及聚酯旺季预期共振下短期乙二醇震荡偏强为主。但是乙二醇远期依旧存在累库 预期，后续关注聚酯负荷以及产销变化。 1、基本面：周五，贸易商商谈为主。个别主流供应商有出货。8月货在09+15~30商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4850~4890附近。9月中 在09+20~30有成交，个别在01+15有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+22。中性 2、基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1][7][8] - **LPG**: Take profit on long positions [1][11][13] - **L**: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - **PP**: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - **PVC**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [1][25][28] - **PX**: Bullish, hold long positions [1][30][32] - **PTA**: Bullish, hold long positions [2][34][37] - **MEG**: Bullish, hold long positions [2][39][41] - **Methanol**: Bullish, look for buying opportunities on 01 contract [3][43][45] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish, hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish, lightly short [5][52][54] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][56][59] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][61][64] 2. Report's Core Views - **Oil**: Short - term rebound due to inventory decline and new sanctions on Iran, but long - term downward trend due to geopolitical easing and supply surplus [1][7][8] - **LPG**: Pay attention to oil price changes at the cost end, take profit on long positions as the upstream oil supply exceeds demand [1][11][14] - **L**: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastics have positive fundamental expectations, and it is advisable to try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - **PP**: Follow the chemical sector's rebound, but the supply is still under pressure. Try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - **PVC**: Warehouse receipts increase, and there is pressure on the near - term contract. Reduce short positions at low prices [1][25][28] - **PX**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policies are favorable. Hold long positions [1][30][32] - **PTA**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and macro - factors are positive. Look for low - buying opportunities [2][34][37] - **MEG**: Total supply increases, but inventory is low. Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][39][41] - **Methanol**: Fundamentals are weak, but expectations are positive. Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract [3][43][45] - **Urea**: Weak fundamentals, but the export window to India is open. Hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - **Asphalt**: Oil price has room to decline, and supply increases. Lightly short [5][52][54] - **Glass**: Supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][56][59] - **Soda Ash**: Supply remains high, and inventory accumulates. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][61][64] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.29%, Brent up 0.42%, and SC up 0.98% [7] - **Basic Logic**: New sanctions on Iran and inventory decline led to a short - term rebound, but long - term pressure comes from OPEC+ production increase and weakening demand [8] - **Fundamentals**: Azerbaijan's oil exports decreased, India's imports hit a low, and US commercial crude inventory decreased [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 21, the PG main contract closed at 4386 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [12] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil price rebounds, and the valuation is reasonable. Supply increases slightly, and demand from some downstream industries declines [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be wary of the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions. Focus on the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG [14] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [18] - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastic fundamentals are expected to improve, with increased maintenance and approaching peak demand season [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long at lows, focus on the range of [7300 - 7500] for L [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [22] - **Basic Logic**: Oil price stabilizes, and the chemical sector is strong. Supply is under pressure, but demand in the peak season starts, and prices have support at the bottom [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pullbacks, focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] for PP [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5008 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase, export negatives are realized, and inventory accumulates. Supply may increase in the future [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [28] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices slightly increase production, demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and inventory is high. Macro - policies are favorable [31][32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6918 - 7020] for PX511 [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, supply - side devices reduce production, and demand is expected to pick up during the peak season. Macro - factors are positive [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, buy put options, and look for buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4840 - 4920] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases slightly, but inventory is low. Demand is expected to rebound during the peak season, and macro - policies are favorable [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, do not chase the market, and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4460 - 4530] for EG01 [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as domestic and overseas devices resume production. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. But there are positive expectations [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract at lows and sell 01 put options. Focus on the range of [2405 - 2445] for MA01 [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the urea main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [48] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases as device maintenance decreases. Domestic demand is weak, but export is good. There is support at the cost end [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions, sell call options due to increased short - term volatility. Focus on the range of [1760 - 1800] for UR01 [51] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 21, the BU main contract closed at 3464 yuan/ton, up 0.32% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Oil price has room to decline, supply increases, and inventory decreases slightly. Valuation is high [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short, focus on the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [55] Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1156 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [58] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is under pressure with new production lines expected to start. Demand is weak due to low downstream orders and falling real - estate completion area [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1140 - 1200] for FG [59] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [63] - **Basic Logic**: Supply remains high with insufficient planned maintenance. Demand is mostly rigid, and inventory accumulates [64] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1280 - 1350] for SA [64]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年8月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 MEG 每日观点 MEG： 6、预期：本周乙二醇到货量下降至低位，叠加近期聚酯工厂参与点价积极，后续港口出货将呈现好转，预计8-9月内港口库存维持 低位运行。另外需求环节逐步恢复，聚酯及终端负荷均有所回升，需求支撑逐步走强。预计短期乙二醇市场震荡偏强为主，下方支 撑较为明显，关注聚酯负荷回升速度以及商品走势。 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货盘面受华南500万吨PTA装置计划外先后停产消息影响，PTA价格大幅上行，带动聚酯链期货盘面全线大 涨，下游聚酯产销也略有提振，上午现货基差快速上行，不过下午市场情绪溢价回吐，基差有所松动。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年8月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货低开震荡，下午受宏观消息提振，盘面快速上行，日内现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差走强，少量 聚酯工厂补货。8月货在09贴水5~0附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4660~4720附近。9月上在09+10有成交，9月中09+15附近有成 交，9月中下在09+20有成交。8月仓单在09贴水10~12有成交。今日主流现货基差在09-2。中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 6、预期：近期加工差维持低位，部分PTA装置检修，加之聚酯负荷回升，8月PTA暂无累库压力，价格上，油价承压运行，成本 端缺乏支撑，预计短 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - PTA: Domestic PTA production decreased slightly, and port inventories increased by 20,000 tons this week. The spread between PX and naphtha expanded to $260, and the weak benzene price restricted further increase in PX output. The spread between PX and MX recovered to around $140, driving the recovery of PX load. Polyester downstream load remained at around 88%, and polyester factory inventories were optimistic. Polyester production cuts were mainly in short - fiber and bottle - chip varieties. With improved sales and inventory reduction, and PTA price recovery, the weaving end load increased slightly [2]. - Ethylene glycol: Coal prices recovered, leading to an increase in ethylene glycol prices. Macro - sentiment weakened slightly, and the chemical industry followed the downward trend of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, was continuously postponed, which affected the market outlook and boosted ethylene glycol prices. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol decreased. Polyester inventories were in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price dropped from 486.5 yuan/barrel on August 18, 2025, to 484.2 yuan/barrel on August 19, 2025, a decrease of 2.30 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased from 1210.6 yuan/ton to 1215.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.71 yuan/ton. PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3424 to 1.3454, an increase of 0.0030. CFR China PX rose from 833 to 835, an increase of 2. PX - naphtha spread increased from 261 to 264, an increase of 4 [2]. - PTA主力期价 dropped from 4746 yuan/ton to 4734 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton. PTA spot price rose from 4670 yuan/ton to 4690 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee decreased from 184.7 yuan/ton to 176.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.1 yuan/ton. Disk processing fee decreased from 260.7 yuan/ton to 235.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.1 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from (12) to (8), an increase of 4. PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 41,907 to 37,349, a decrease of 4558 [2]. - MEG主力期价 rose from 4346 yuan/ton to 4384 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha decreased from (86.31) to (86.50), a decrease of 0.2. MEG domestic price rose from 4441 yuan/ton to 4458 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from 86 to 92, an increase of 6 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 80.38%. PTA start - up rate decreased from 77.67% to 75.09%, a decrease of 2.58%. MEG start - up rate increased from 56.93% to 59.36%, an increase of 2.43%. Polyester load (POY150D/48F) remained at 87.30% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - POY150D/48F price dropped from 6770 to 6750, a decrease of 20. POY cash flow decreased from 39 to (3), a decrease of 42. FDY150D/96F price remained at 7100. FDY cash flow decreased from (131) to (153), a decrease of 22. DTY150D/48F price remained at 7955. DTY cash flow decreased from 24 to 2, a decrease of 22. Long - filament sales decreased from 46% to 51%, a decrease of 5% [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester short - fiber price rose from 6550 to 6555, an increase of 5. Polyester short - fiber cash flow decreased from 169 to 152, a decrease of 17. Short - fiber sales increased from 40% to 53%, an increase of 13% [2]. - Semi - bright chip price rose from 5800 to 5805, an increase of 5. Chip cash flow decreased from (31) to (48), a decrease of 17. Chip sales increased from 70% to 86%, an increase of 16% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish trend continues [1] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish trend continues [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease, supply surplus pressure rises, and oil prices trend downward. Buy put options [1][3][4] - LPG: Cost-side drags, upward momentum is insufficient. Take profit on long positions [1][7][8] - L: Market sentiment weakens, oscillates weakly. Wait for dips to go long [1][11][15] - PP: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, industry expectations are weak. Follow the cost to oscillate weakly and wait and see [1][18][22] - PVC: Market sentiment turns weak, inventory accumulates. Hold short positions [1][25][28] - PX: Supply-demand tight balance eases, oil prices oscillate weakly. Hold short positions at high levels and sell call options [1][31][33] - PTA: Supply-demand tight balance, oil prices oscillate weakly. Gradually take profit on short positions, buy put options, and look for opportunities to go long at lows [1][35][37] - MEG: Supply-demand is slightly loose, inventory is low. Hold short positions cautiously and look for low-buying opportunities [2][39][41] - Methanol: Negative factors may be exhausted. Take profit on 09 short positions, look for 01 low-buying opportunities, sell 10 put options, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [2][43][45] - Urea: Fundamentals are weak, but the fertilizer export window to India opens. Hold 01 long positions and sell put options [2][47][49] - Asphalt: Cost-side drags and demand declines. Lightly short [2][52][54] - Propylene: Cost support weakens, oscillates weakly. Wait and see in the short term [2][56][57] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined, WTI dropped 1.48%, Brent dropped 1.22%, and SC dropped 0.02% [3] - **Basic Logic**: After the US-Russia talks, geopolitical conflicts tend to ease. The support of the peak season for oil prices gradually decreases, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices gradually rises. Oil prices still have room to compress, and there is a probability of being pressed to around $60 in the medium and long term [4] - **Fundamentals**: From January to July this year, Azerbaijan's oil exports through the BTC pipeline decreased by 5.9% year-on-year. In July, India's crude oil imports dropped to the lowest level since September 2023. As of the week of August 8, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break-even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of [470 - 490] for SC [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 19, the PG main contract closed at 4314 yuan/ton, up 0.14% month-on-month [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: The cost-side oil price is weak, and the fundamentals are okay. The basis is at a high level, and the supply and demand have improved. The cost side is the main drag, and the upward momentum is weak [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. The ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, with a neutral valuation. The trend mainly follows the oil price. Take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of [4200 - 4300] for PG [9] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7307 yuan/ton, down 0.4% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 379 lots [11][12][13] - **Industry News**: In the short term, the cost support of PE weakens, the supply pressure eases, and the demand is expected to be strong. It is expected that the polyethylene price will run strongly, with an increase of 10 - 50 yuan/ton [14] - **Basic Logic**: Demand recovers slowly, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The parking ratio increases, the LL import profit margin decreases, and the production is expected to decline. The peak season for shed films is coming, and the demand support is strengthening. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Wait for dips to go long. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7400] for L [1][15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and wait for dips to go long [16] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 7016 yuan/ton, down 0.3% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 1180 lots [18][19][20] - **Industry News**: The downstream demand is weak, and the market is affected by bearish sentiment. However, the cost side still has support, and the macro - policy is favorable. It is expected that the market will oscillate bearishly around 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton in the short term [21] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, industry expectations are weak, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The upstream maintenance intensity declines, the export profit margin remains negative, and the demand starts slowly. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm in the peak season. Follow the cost to oscillate weakly and wait and see. Pay attention to the range of [6900 - 7100] for PP [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and go long on dips [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 5001 yuan/ton, down 1.0% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 134 lots [25][26][27] - **Industry News**: Some enterprises' devices are shut down, and India issued an anti - dumping tax on PVC imports. The domestic supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and the market will continue to run weakly. It is expected that the spot price of calcium carbide - type five in East China will be in the range of 4700 - 4850 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment turns weak, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. Social inventories have accumulated for 8 consecutive weeks. Multiple sets of devices are planned to be overhauled this week, and the weekly output is expected to decline. In August, new production capacity will be released, and the internal and external demand is in the off - season. The export is disturbed by policies, and the pressure of inventory accumulation in the industrial chain still exists. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory in August [29] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton [31][32] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing their loads. The demand side is weak but expected to improve. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the PX inventory is still high. The PXN is not low. The oil price oscillates weakly. Cautiously bearish [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions at high levels and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6680 - 6790] for PX511 [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PTA spot price in East China was 4659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [35][36] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, the supply - side device maintenance intensity increases, and the start - up load decreases. The demand side is stable, and the start - up load of downstream polyester and terminal weaving stops falling and rebounds. The supply - demand tight balance in August is expected to ease. The TA processing fee is low, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at lows [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profit on short positions, buy put options, and look for opportunities to go long on TA at lows. Pay attention to the range of [4700 - 4750] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [39][40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices are slightly increasing their loads, and the expected arrival volume increases, with the total supply increasing. The start - up load of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is expected to rebound. The supply and demand in August are slightly loose, and the oil price trend is downward. However, the ethylene glycol inventory is low, supporting the price. In the short term, it oscillates weakly, but the downward space may be limited [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of [4380 - 4430] for EG01 [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2355 yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton [43][44] - **Basic Logic**: The previously overhauled domestic devices have recovered, and the overseas methanol device load is at a high level, increasing the supply - side pressure. The demand is weak, and the social inventory is accumulating. The negative factors may be exhausted [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, look for 01 low - buying opportunities, sell 10 put options, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads. Pay attention to the range of [2385 - 2415] for MA01 [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: The urea device maintenance is low this week, and the start - up load is expected to rise, increasing the supply - side pressure. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the fertilizer export is good. The cost side has support. In the short term, the domestic urea fundamentals are still loose, but the price fluctuates within a range under the export quota system and the "peak - shaving and summer - ensuring" policy. The market speculates on the expectation of fertilizer/urea exports to India [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of [1790 - 1835] for UR01 [51] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 19, the BU main contract closed at 3453 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month [52][53] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase and trends weakly. The asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The asphalt profit is okay, and the cracking spread is at a high level. The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the long - term asphalt price is under pressure due to the typhoon in the south [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The cracking spread and the BU - FU spread are at high levels, with a high valuation. As OPEC gradually increases production, the raw material side is relatively sufficient. The asphalt is bearish in the medium and long term. Lightly short. Pay attention to the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [55] Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL01 closing price was 6404 yuan/ton, down 0.7% day - on - day. The warehouse receipts increased by 197 lots [56][57] - **Industry News**: The PDH device has restarted, and the regional circulation has increased, but the enterprise inventory is low. The downstream restocking is okay. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to increase after the restart of some PDH devices, but the demand is also expected to increase due to the recovery of some PP devices. The price may oscillate within a range [59] - **Basic Logic**: Both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The upstream supply is abundant, and the PDH cost support weakens. The downstream is gradually entering the seasonal peak season. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm. The short - term market sentiment is weak. Wait and see [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures rose and then fell yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The processing margin has remained low recently, some PTA plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load has rebounded. There is no pressure for PTA to accumulate inventory in August. However, the oil price is under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The polyester load rebounded to around 89.4% last week, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased, with gradually strengthening demand support. During the recent price correction of MEG, polyester factories actively participated in price - fixing, and the port shipments will improve in the future. The inventory at ports is not expected to increase significantly from August to September. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PTA Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, PTA futures rose and then fell, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The 8 - month cargo was negotiated at 09 - 5~10, with the price negotiation range around 4670~4705. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 - 8 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4690, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position is decreasing [5]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. 3.2 MEG Analysis - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price center of MEG rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The night - session MEG fluctuated within a narrow range, and the negotiation was relatively limited. The domestic MEG market rose steadily, and the trading was fair. The spot was negotiated and traded at a high level of over 4480 yuan/ton, and the negotiation atmosphere became a bit stalemate in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the center of the MEG outer market fluctuated upwards. The recent shipments were negotiated and traded at around 521 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the market rose steadily, with the recent shipments negotiated at around 523 - 525 US dollars/ton. The domestic - foreign price inversion widened, and the buying was relatively weak [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4455, and the basis of the 09 contract is 71, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force has a net short position, and the short position is increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3.3 Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Some PTA plants are planned to be under maintenance in August, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market's expectation of demand start has also been slightly reflected [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [8]. - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the market rebound [8]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. 3.5 Price - Related Charts - **PET Bottle Chip**: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, etc. of PET bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [13][16][20][21]. - **PTA and MEG**: It includes the price spreads (such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1, EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1), basis, and spot price spreads between PTA and MEG from 2019 to 2025 [23][29][37]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and various types of polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025 [39][41][44]. 3.7 Operating Rate Analysis - **Polyester Upstream**: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [50]. - **Polyester Downstream**: It includes the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54]. 3.8 Profit Analysis - **PTA**: It shows the PTA processing fee from 2022 to 2025 [58]. - **MEG**: It shows the production profit of MEG produced by different methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [61]. - **Polyester Fibers**: It shows the production profit of polyester short fibers, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [64][65][67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX presents a short - term volatile market with increased supply and decreased demand, but terminal demand improvement may limit the downside space of the single - side price [1][6] - PTA is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the 9 - 1 month - spread reverse arbitrage is recommended, with the single - side turning into a volatile market pattern [1][7] - MEG is in a range - bound market, with the 9 - 1 month - spread operating in the range of - 50 to 0 and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and attention should be paid to the improvement of terminal demand [1][7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On August 15, the PX price rebounded slightly, with the valuation at 827 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars from the 14th. South Korea's PX exports in July decreased by 2% month - on - month to 407,545 tons due to tariff uncertainties and weak demand from downstream PTA producers. Exports to the US dropped by 52% in July compared to June, while exports to China increased by 10% month - on - month to 373,458 tons [3][4] - PTA: On August 15, the PTA spot price rose to 4,660 yuan/ton [4] - MEG: Two MEG plants in East China with a total capacity of 1.9 million tons/year have been restarted [4] - Polyester: On August 15, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of around 40%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved moderately, with an average sales rate of 62% [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral view [6] Views and Suggestions - PX: The demand is improving, and the downside space of the single - side price may be limited. The domestic supply is abundant, while the supply in Japan and South Korea has a co - existence of restarts and overhauls, with little impact on production. Although PX supply increases and demand decreases, the improvement in terminal demand may limit the single - side decline [6] - PTA: The demand improves month - on - month, and the single - side turns into a volatile market. The 9 - 1 month - spread reverse arbitrage is maintained. The polyester operating rate is increasing, and the supply side is relatively stable [7] - MEG: Supply and demand both increase, and the single - side of ethylene glycol is in a volatile market. The 9 - 1 month - spread operates in the range of - 50 to 0, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The overall supply is at a high level, and the inventory is accumulating again [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term processing margin remains low, some PTA devices are under maintenance, and polyester load is rising, so there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in August. However, oil prices are under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on oil prices and changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, last week, the polyester load rebounded to around 89.4%, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased, so the demand support is gradually strengthening. During the recent price correction of MEG, polyester factories actively participated in pricing, and the port shipments will improve. The port inventory is not expected to rise significantly from August to September. It is expected that the MEG price will adjust within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the rebound speed of polyester load and commodity trends [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored for the market rebound [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, some polyester factories made bids. The August cargo was negotiated and traded at a discount of 12 - 15 to the 09 contract, with some slightly higher, and the price negotiation range was around 4630 - 4680. The mid - September cargo was traded at 09 + 0, and the end - September cargo was traded at 09 + 5. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 13 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4646, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 57, with the futures price at a discount [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing [5]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, short - term price fluctuation and basis range - bound movement are expected [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and the market trading was average. The spot was negotiated at a premium of 85 - 89 yuan/ton to the 09 contract, and the basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the external price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated at a low level, and the recent mainstream negotiation price for shipments was around 523 - 525 US dollars/ton, with light trading and mainly wait - and - see from buyers [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4465, and the basis of the 09 contract is 89, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position is increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, short - term price range adjustment is expected [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Balance Tables**: The report provides PTA and ethylene glycol supply - demand balance tables from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on production capacity, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [10][11] - **Price - related Data**: There are data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, PTA and MEG spreads, basis, and processing margins from 2019 - 2025 [14][17][21] - **Inventory Analysis Data**: It includes inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester fibers, etc., from 2020 - 2025 [40][42][45] - **Capacity Utilization Data**: There are capacity utilization data of polyester upstream and downstream industries from 2020 - 2025 [51][55] - **Profit Data**: It provides profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from 2022 - 2025 [61][62][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, due to sustained low processing margins, recent changes in PTA plants have increased. However, in terms of price, the cost side lacks support and downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will stabilize. Attention should be paid to subsequent PTA plant and downstream polyester load changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will be adjusted widely within the month, and the increase lacks sustainability. The arrival volume of foreign ships will decrease around the middle of the month. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will be basically balanced from August to September, and demand support will gradually strengthen over time. The fundamental structure of ethylene glycol is moderately positive, and it is expected that the short - term low - level support for ethylene glycol will be strong. Follow - up attention should be paid to plant changes [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the upward rebound of the market, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2. Daily Tips - PTA: The PTA futures followed the cost side down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with polyester factories as the main buyers. The spot basis was differentiated. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 14. The spot price is 4646, and the 09 - contract basis is 6, with the futures price at a discount. PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level, and the market trading was active. The night - session ethylene glycol market adjusted narrowly. In the morning, affected by the Shenghong Refining and Chemical plant, the market briefly rebounded, and buying interest was active. Then the market declined and adjusted, and polyester factories actively participated in price - fixing in the afternoon. The spot basis strengthened synchronously, and by the end of the session, the spot negotiation price was at a premium of 85 - 88 yuan/ton to the 09 - contract. In terms of US dollars, the external market price of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level, and the recent mainstream trading price of ship cargoes was around 522 - 526 US dollars/ton, with transactions around 522 - 524 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in purchases. The spot price is 4465, and the 09 - contract basis is 98, with the futures price at a discount. The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [7][8]. 3.3. Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply - demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, PTA consumption, and ending inventory [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the supply - demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol total operating rate, output, import, total supply, polyester production, ethylene glycol consumption, and port inventory [12]. 3.5. Price - The report provides data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization, and inventory from 2020 to 2025. It also shows the price spreads of PTA (TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1), PTA basis, MEG month - to - month spreads (EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1), MEG basis, spot spreads (TA - EG, p - xylene processing spread) [14][17][21][22][24][27][30][34][37]. 3.6. Inventory Analysis - The report analyzes the inventory of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various types of polyester fibers from 2021 to 2025, including factory - level inventory and port inventory [40][41][43]. 3.7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工 - It shows the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and PTA - related industries from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. 3.8. Processing Fees and Profits - The report provides data on PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, ethylene - based), and production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 to 2025 [59][62][65].