Report Industry Investment Ratings - L - Oscillatory [1] - PP - Oscillatory [1] - PVC - Weak [1] - PTA/PX - Cautiously Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol - Bullish [5] - Methanol - Cautiously Bullish [5] - Urea - Bullish [5] - Caustic Soda - Weak [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the investment prospects of multiple chemical products, taking into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and policy impacts. Each product's market situation is unique, with some showing potential for upward movement while others are expected to remain stable or weak [1][4][5]. Summaries by Product L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 8,614 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from the previous day. The basis of L05 was -124 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 149 yuan/ton. Social inventory increased counter - seasonally [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply contraction intensified, geopolitical conflicts eased, and the market was in high - level consolidation. New plant overhauls in domestic petrochemicals increased the parking ratio, and the supply - demand pattern was gradually tightening, providing support at the bottom of the market [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 9,103 yuan/ton, down 1.8% from the previous day. The basis of PP05 was 75 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 366 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Basic Logic**: PDH cost support was strong, supply contraction continued, and the supply - demand pattern was improving. PDH profit still had room for upward repair. In the short term, it was mainly affected by geopolitical factors [12]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5,353 yuan/ton, down 3.6% from the previous day. The basis of V05 was -133 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was -106 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply had a slow growth trend, and fundamental drivers were weak. There was a divergence in the start - up of ethylene and calcium carbide processes. High inventory and weak basis limited the upward space of the market [16]. PTA/PX - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,778 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan from the previous day. The PXN was 106.2 dollars/ton, down 123 dollars [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts persisted, and the Strait of Hormuz was substantially blocked. TA valuation was high, and supply and demand were slightly loose. The market was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [18]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 5,279 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan from the previous day. The basis of EG05 was -129 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was 146 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts showed no obvious signs of easing. Domestic and overseas plants were continuously reducing their loads. Import volume was expected to decrease in March - April, and inventory pressure was expected to ease [20]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol market showed a back - structure, with a weakening basis and monthly spread. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation was high, and the fundamental outlook was improving. Supply was increasing domestically and decreasing overseas, and downstream demand was weakly stable. Port inventory was accelerating its decline, with stable cost support [23]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,877 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The basis of Shandong small - particle urea was 23 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea was large, but exports were restricted before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply was still at a high level, demand was recovering, and the market was expected to fluctuate within a range. The cost side provided support [25][26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,340 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The basis of SH05 was -37 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was -177 yuan/ton [28][29]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong continued to increase, and the basis was approaching parity. Caution was advised when short - selling. The start - up rate was expected to continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring overhauls and export orders [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: ★, indicating a bullish bias, with a view of "oscillation" [2] - PP: ★★, indicating a strong bullish bias, with a view of "stronger" [2] - PVC: ★, indicating a bullish bias, with a view of "oscillation" [2] - PTA/PX: ★, with a "bullish" direction [5] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): ★, with a "bullish" direction [5] - Methanol: ★, with a "cautiously bullish" view [6] - Urea: ★, with a "bullish" direction [6] - Caustic Soda: ★, with an "oscillation" view [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products, including L, PP, PVC, PTA/PX, MEG, methanol, urea, and caustic soda. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each product, and provides investment outlooks and price ranges [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Product L - **Core View**: The social inventory is accumulating against the seasonal trend, and the market is in a high - level oscillation. The price range is expected to be between 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton [9][11] - **Main Logic**: Social inventory is accumulating against the seasonal trend, and ethylene is trading at a high level. New device maintenance in Lanzhou Petrochemical has increased the parking ratio to 20%. More device maintenance is planned before early April, tightening the supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [2][11] PP - **Core View**: Supported by cost, the market is oscillating strongly. The price range is expected to be between 9000 - 9800 yuan/ton [12][15] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances persist, and supply continues to shrink. New device maintenance in Yangzi Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical has increased the parking ratio to a historical high of 28%. The supply - demand pattern is improving, and there is significant room for PDH profit recovery. Attention should be paid to the downstream transmission progress [2][15] PVC - **Core View**: The inventory reduction slope has slowed down, and the market is in a wide - range oscillation. The price range is expected to be between 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton [16][19] - **Main Logic**: The ethylene price is high, and the FOB price in Tianjin has decreased. Inventory reduction is slow. The start - up of ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC plants is diverging. The high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market [2][19] PTA - **Core View**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost support, it is recommended to buy on dips. The price range is expected to be between 6620 - 7020 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical conflict shows no sign of significant easing. The valuation is high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The supply side has seen some recovery in domestic devices, while the demand side has a slight decline in polyester load. The inventory has decreased slightly from a high level. The cost side is affected by the geopolitical conflict [20][21] MEG - **Core View**: With reduced imports and cost support, the outlook is bullish. The price range is expected to be between 5280 - 5580 yuan/ton [22][23] - **Main Logic**: The valuation is high, and the term structure is in backwardation. Geopolitical conflicts have led to continuous load reduction of domestic and overseas devices. The inventory at ports is at a low level, and the social inventory is decreasing. The demand side has a slight decline in polyester load [22][23] Methanol - **Core View**: Geopolitical conflicts still exist, and the fundamentals are improving. The market is oscillating strongly. The price range is expected to be between 3250 - 3450 yuan/ton [24][26] - **Main Logic**: The valuation of the methanol main contract is at a nearly one - year high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The supply side has domestic load - increase and overseas load - reduction. The demand side has weak - stable downstream demand, and the traditional demand is seasonally warming up. The port inventory is decreasing rapidly [26] Urea - **Core View**: Although the fundamentals are weak, there is an export expectation, and the outlook is bullish. The price range is expected to be between 1880 - 1920 yuan/ton [27][29] - **Main Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea is over 3000 yuan/ton, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply side has a slight decline in production but is still at a high level. The demand side is recovering, and the factory inventory is decreasing. The cost side provides support [27][28][29] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: The start - up increase has led to a slight increase in factory inventory, and the market is oscillating. The price range is expected to be between 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton [30][31] - **Main Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, and the basis has strengthened. High inventory restricts the rebound space, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The start - up rate increased to 84.6% last week and is expected to continue to increase this week. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance progress and changes in export orders [2][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed down. The market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis fluctuated within a certain range. The expected short - term PTA spot price will follow the cost - side to fluctuate widely, and the upside space of the basis is limited. With the downstream polyester production cut news and the possible load reduction of PTA factories, attention should be paid to subsequent changes in the cost side and upstream and downstream devices [5]. MEG - Overseas logistics is blocked, and the import volume of ethylene glycol will drop to a low level later. Although the demand support has weakened due to the production cut plans of polyester factories, the supply - side contraction of ethylene glycol is more obvious. The de - stocking amplitude from April to May is still expanding, and the social inventory will quickly shrink later. In the short term, ethylene glycol will maintain a relatively strong pattern, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiations [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the report. 3.2每日提示 PTA - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed down. The market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis fluctuated within a certain range. The spot was negotiated and traded at around 05 - 50~62, with the price negotiation range at 6700~6930. There were transactions at around 05 - 48 in the middle of the month. This week's warehouse receipts were traded at around 05 - 45. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 05 - 59 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 6830, the basis of the 05 contract is 62, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PTA factories is 5.85 days, a decrease of 0.07 days compared with the previous period, showing a positive situation [6]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a positive situation [6]. - **Main positions**: The net long position decreased, showing a positive situation [6]. - **Expectation**: The US - Iran situation is still tense. The market is waiting and seeing the negotiation progress. With the repeated geopolitical news this week, international oil prices fluctuated widely at a high level, driving the polyester raw materials to rebound after a decline. The activity of traders in the spot market decreased, there were few bids in the market, and the spot basis fluctuated within a certain range. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will follow the cost - side to fluctuate widely, and the upside space of the basis is limited. With the downstream polyester production cut news and the possible load reduction of PTA factories, attention should be paid to subsequent changes in the cost side and upstream and downstream devices [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol first rose and then fell, and the basis strengthened significantly. In the morning, the ethylene glycol futures market was firm and rising, and the spot was traded at a high level of around 5550 - 5560 yuan/ton. Traders' buying enthusiasm was high, and the spot basis strengthened rapidly. In the afternoon, the ethylene glycol futures market corrected from the high level, and the spot was negotiated at a premium of 5 - 25 yuan/ton to the 05 contract at the end of the session, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 5429, the basis of the 05 contract is 70, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 92.9 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons compared with the previous period, showing a negative situation [8]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a positive situation [8]. - **Main positions**: The net short position increased, showing a negative situation [7]. - **Expectation**: Overseas logistics is blocked, and the import volume of ethylene glycol will drop to a low level later. The port inventory can show a continuous decline from mid - April. Due to the high raw material prices, the polyester factories' production cut and suspension plans have been successively introduced recently, and the average monthly load of polyester in April will drop to around 85% - 86%. The demand support has weakened. However, the supply - side contraction of ethylene glycol is more obvious, and the de - stocking amplitude from April to May is still expanding, expected to be around 600,000 tons. The social inventory will quickly shrink later. In the short term, ethylene glycol will maintain a relatively strong pattern, and attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran negotiations [7]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the report. 3.4基本面数据 PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of PX from September 2025 to June 2026, including production capacity base, output, import volume, demand, inventory change, domestic utilization rate, demand from polyester, and balance with polyester [12]. PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, including total output, import, export, total consumption, distillate consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year output change, year - on - year consumption change, cumulative year - on - year output change, and cumulative year - on - year consumption change [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand balance data of ethylene glycol from October 2025 to September 2026, including total output, import, export, total consumption, polyester consumption, other consumption, surplus, year - on - year output change, year - on - year import change, year - on - year supply change, year - on - year consumption change, cumulative year - on - year supply change, and cumulative year - on - year consumption change [14]. 3.5影响因素总结 Bullish factors - The Strait of Hormuz is continuously blocked, and the Middle East supply is severely interrupted. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of the world's oil supply and is still under the actual control of Iran. The output of major oil fields in southern Iraq has dropped sharply to only 1.3 million barrels per day (about 4.3 million barrels per day before the war), and Kuwait has also announced production cuts due to force majeure. The major oil - producing countries in the Middle East have been forced to significantly reduce exports, and there is a continuous supply gap in the market [10]. - Iran denies negotiations, and the prospect of a cease - fire is unclear. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that Tehran has not conducted direct negotiations with Washington, which disappointed the market's expectations of a market downgrade. Brent crude oil rose nearly 2% on Thursday, breaking through $104 per barrel. As long as there is no substantial progress in the cease - fire agreement, the geopolitical premium will be difficult to subside [10]. - Trump's tough stance continues to increase the risk premium. Trump posted on social media on Thursday morning that "Iran had better get serious soon, otherwise it will be irreversible", and oil prices immediately rose by about 3%, while the stock market was under pressure. The uncertainty of US military operations continues to provide upward momentum for oil prices [10]. Bearish factors - Trump suspended the strike on Iran's energy infrastructure. Trump announced on Monday that he would suspend the military strike on Iran's energy infrastructure for five days, saying that the US and Iran were having "productive dialogues", and oil prices immediately plunged by more than 10%. This was the biggest single - day bearish impact this week [11]. - The IEA released the largest - ever strategic reserve. The International Energy Agency obtained the unanimous consent of 32 member states on March 11 and approved the release of a record 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to deal with the global oil supply shortage caused by the US - Israel military operations against Iran. Although the actual delivery takes time, this move provides psychological buffer for the market and suppresses some of the upward momentum [11]. - Trump's "cease - fire negotiation" remarks and the spread of the 15 - point peace plan. Trump said that the US and Iran had "good and productive dialogues" in the past two days, aiming to promote a "complete and thorough solution" to the Middle East conflict. Brent crude oil once plunged by more than 13%. On Wednesday, it was reported that Trump proposed a 15 - point peace plan to Iran, and oil prices subsequently fell. Although Iran later denied the negotiations, such news still temporarily and effectively suppressed oil prices [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Strong bias [1] - PP: Strong bias [1] - PVC: Oscillation [1] - PTA/PX: Bullish direction [4] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish direction [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [5] - Urea: Bullish direction [5] - Caustic soda: Oscillation [1] Core Views - The geopolitical conflict has not significantly eased, and the supply - side contraction in the energy and chemical sectors continues to intensify. The cost of raw materials is strong, and the supply - demand patterns of various products are showing different trends [1][4][5]. - For some products, the high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market, while for others, the improvement in supply - demand fundamentals and cost support drive the price to maintain a strong or bullish trend [1][4][5]. Summary by Variety L - **Core view**: Strong bias [1] - **Main logic**: Geopolitical tensions persist, supply contraction intensifies, and ethylene prices are consolidating at a high level. Newly added domestic device overhauls increase the parking ratio to 20%, and more device overhauls are planned before early April, making the supply - demand pattern gradually tighten [1][10]. - **Market data**: L05 closing price is 8868 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 910,000 lots, down 11.6% [8]. PP - **Core view**: Strong bias [1] - **Main logic**: The cost of propane and methanol is strong, PDH profits are compressed to a historical low, and upstream overhauls continue. The domestic device parking ratio remains at a historical high of 26%, and the supply - demand pattern is improving, with high upward repair space for PDH profits [1][14]. - **Market data**: PP05 closing price is 9313 yuan/ton, up 2.1% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 1.13 million lots, down 17.1% [12]. PVC - **Core view**: Oscillation [1] - **Main logic**: The first - round price increase of semi - coke this year slows down the de - stocking slope of the upstream and mid - stream, and the market fluctuates widely. The shortage of ethylene raw materials intensifies the expectation of load reduction of global ethylene - based PVC, and some domestic ethylene - based devices start to reduce loads. The caustic - soda method starts to increase to the highest level in the same period, and high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market [1][18]. - **Market data**: V05 closing price is 5615 yuan/ton, down 0.6% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 2.39 million lots, down 9.9% [16]. PTA - **Core view**: Bullish direction [4] - **Main logic**: The geopolitical conflict has not eased, the valuation is high, and the term structure is in a back state. The supply - side domestic devices have recovered, and the PTA load is 79.9%. The downstream polyester load has slightly decreased, and the weaving start - up load has continued to rise, but the sales are average. The PTA inventory has slightly decreased from a high level, and the cost side is affected by the geopolitical situation, with the PX device slightly reducing the load [4][20]. - **Market data**: TA05 closing price is 6778 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan from the previous day; the PTA social inventory is 14.01 days, down 0.65 days [19]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Core view**: Bullish direction [4] - **Main logic**: The valuation is high, and the term structure is in a back state. Geopolitical conflicts have not eased, and domestic and foreign devices continue to reduce loads. The import volume is expected to shrink in March - April, and the port inventory is at a low level in the same period, with the social inventory continuing to decline. The polyester load has slightly decreased, and the weaving start - up load has continued to rise, but the sales are average [4][22]. - **Market data**: EG05 closing price is 5279 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan from the previous day; the MEG social inventory in China is 2.038 million tons, down 39,800 tons [21]. Methanol - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [5] - **Main logic**: The geopolitical uncertainty still exists, the valuation is high, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The supply - side domestic devices increase the load while foreign devices reduce the load. The downstream demand is weakly stable, and the traditional downstream starts to pick up seasonally. The port inventory is accelerating de - stocking [5][25]. - **Market data**: The methanol主力 is at a high level in the past year, and the term structure is in a back state [25]. Urea - **Core view**: Bullish direction [5] - **Main logic**: The price difference between domestic and foreign urea is more than 3000 yuan/ton, but urea exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply - side start - up has declined but is still at a high level in the same period, and the daily production is 214,700 tons. The demand side has recovered, the compound fertilizer start - up has continued to increase, and the industrial demand is improving steadily. The plant inventory is continuously de - stocking. The cost side has support, and attention should be paid to the urea export policy in the middle and late stages of domestic spring plowing [5][27][28]. - **Market data**: UR05 closing price is 1877 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day; the urea plant inventory in China is 700,500 tons, down 108,400 tons [26]. Caustic Soda - **Core view**: Oscillation [1] - **Main logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, the basis has strengthened, and high inventory restricts the rebound space. The start - up rate increased to 84.6% last week, and there are still plans to increase the load this week, with the start - up expected to continue to increase. The ECU profit in Shandong has recovered, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring overhauls and changes in export order volumes [1][30]. - **Market data**: SH05 closing price is 2442 yuan/ton, down 2.7% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 360,000 lots, up 0.3% [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The process of the US and Iran seeking to start negotiations is difficult, and Israel is intensively attacking targets in Iran. In the Russia-Ukraine situation, at least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity has temporarily stopped, which has increased market concerns about supply. Brent crude oil futures prices may reach $120 per barrel in the second quarter of this year if energy infrastructure continues to be attacked and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time [4] - Due to the sharp rise in raw material prices, the polyester terminal is cautious about placing orders and mostly adopts a wait-and-see attitude. The PX-naphtha spread is around $220 per ton. Asian cracking plants continue to reduce their loads, with expected supply reduction and demand increase in April, and the medium-term trend remains strong. There is a risk of negative feedback on the demand side of PTA, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation in April, but the cost drive is still strong, and the long-term outlook is good [4] - The Middle East situation has tightened the supply of ethylene glycol from both cost and supply aspects. The supply of ethylene glycol at home and abroad is shrinking. The supply is at direct risk of interruption, and imports will be significantly reduced. The supply-demand pattern is expected to improve in the second quarter, and it is expected to enter the de-stocking cycle [5] - The port inventory of pure benzene has continued to decline, meeting expectations. The downstream is actively picking up goods, driving the decline of port inventory. The supply of pure benzene in South Korea is still expected to decline. The domestic and overseas factories have begun to hoard pure benzene. The downstream of pure benzene has good start-up performance and is actively replenishing inventory. The styrene start-up rate has slightly decreased, and the domestic export performance is outstanding, but the port inventory has slightly accumulated. The styrene is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The negotiation process between the US and Iran is difficult, and Israel is attacking targets in Iran. In the Russia-Ukraine situation, at least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity has temporarily stopped, increasing market concerns about supply. Brent crude oil futures prices may reach $120 per barrel in the second quarter of this year if the situation worsens [4] PX&PTA - Domestic PX weekly capacity utilization rate is 87.42%, up 0.3% from last week; Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 77.14%, up 0.13% from last week. The PX processing fee is greatly affected by crude oil fluctuations, and the PX-naphtha spread is around $220 per ton [8] - An East China 200,000-ton PX project is planned to be shut down for maintenance for about 30 - 40 days in mid-March, and another 70,000-ton PX project is planned to be shut down for maintenance for 50 - 60 days in early April [8] - The PX price decline is restricted by geopolitical risks and the expected supply tightening in the second quarter. The new PX production capacity will be all added in the second half of this year, and there are many maintenance plans for PX in the second quarter, so the long-term outlook is good [8] - The average spot price of PTA this week is 6,700 yuan per ton, down 90 yuan per ton from last week. The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 79.9%, up 2.63% from last week. The factory inventory days are 5.85 days, down 0.07 days from last week and up 0.83 days from the same period last year [13] - The PTA processing fee is 212 yuan per ton, down 37 yuan per ton from last week. The easing of the Middle East situation has led to a decline in crude oil prices, dragging down the price of raw material PX. The downstream and terminal performance is poor, and the spot price transmission is not smooth [13] MEG - The average price of ethylene glycol in East China this week is 4,887 yuan per ton, up 312 yuan per ton from last week. The overall domestic ethylene glycol start-up rate is 57.97%, down 0.53% from last week. The coal-to-ethylene glycol production profit has been greatly repaired, and the production gross profit is 419 yuan per ton, up 240 yuan per ton from last week [19] - The ethylene glycol port inventory is 95.2 tons, up 1.7 tons from last week, and it is expected to enter the de-stocking stage in April. Two South Korean MEG plants with an annual capacity of 120,000 tons each have been shut down for maintenance this month, which is expected to last until the end of May [19] BZ&EB - This week, the domestic pure benzene capacity utilization rate is 72.57%, down 1.99% from last week; the styrene capacity utilization rate is 69.95%, down 0.51% from last week. Affected by the crude oil price fluctuations, the pure benzene-naphtha spread has been continuously compressed to around $50 per ton [30] - The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port sample in Jiangsu is 26.9 tons, down 1.9 tons from last week, still at a high level; the styrene port sample inventory in Jiangsu is 16.84 tons, up 0.59 tons from last week; the factory inventory is 8.71 tons, down 1.46 tons from last week [31] - The downstream PS weekly start-up rate is 51.4%, down 0.2% from last week; the APS start-up rate is 62.6%, down 4.5% from last week; the EPS start-up rate is 63.3%, up 2.3% from last week. The PS and ABS inventory levels have decreased [31] Polyester Industry - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 83.18%, down 0.56 percentage points from last week. The polyester filament has accumulated inventory [26] - The comprehensive start-up rate of the main domestic weaving production bases this week is 51.85%, up 0.47% from last week. The average number of days of terminal weaving orders is 8.55 days, down 0.88 days from last week. The average inventory level of terminal woven finished products (long fiber cloth) is 19.28 days, down 0.14 days from last week [26] - The geopolitical situation has not subsided, resulting in a slowdown in order negotiations. The market is in a stalemate between buyers and sellers. Enterprises mostly consume their previous inventories and produce on demand, with a weak willingness to accept long-term and large orders, and are in a wait-and-see and game stage overall [26]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Callback [1] - PP: Callback [1] - PVC: Callback [1] - PX/PTA: Callback [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Callback [2] - Methanol: Callback [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [3] - Caustic Soda: Oscillation [1] Core Views - The geopolitical situation is the main factor affecting the market. The negotiation between the US and Iran is in the initial stage, and the geopolitical premium in the market is gradually being digested. The supply of some products is shrinking, and the cost support is strong. The demand side of some products is gradually recovering, but the growth rate is weak. Overall, the market is in a state of shock and adjustment [1][2][3] Summary by Variety L - **Core View**: Callback. The negotiation between the US and Iran is in the initial stage, and the supply contraction intensifies. The ethylene market is strongly volatile. With the increase in planned maintenance of domestic devices, attention should be paid to the sustainability of supply reduction. Geopolitical conflicts may gradually ease, and long positions should be stopped for profit [1][7] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of L01, L05, and L09 have all declined, with the L05 closing price dropping by 6.4%. The main contract position has decreased by 15.6%, and the weighted position has decreased by 10.0%. The trading volume has increased by 28.0%. The L05 basis is -128 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread is 182 yuan/ton [5][6] PP - **Core View**: Callback. The PDH profit has reached a new low, and the supply contraction continues. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost side still strongly supports PP. The domestic supply and demand pattern is improving, but recent capital has been continuously reducing positions, and long positions should be stopped for profit at high prices [1][10] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 have all declined, with the PP05 closing price dropping by 6.9%. The main contract position has decreased by 14.9%, and the weighted position has decreased by 10.1%. The trading volume has increased by 34.8%. The PP05 basis is -469 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread is 499 yuan/ton [8][9] PVC - **Core View**: Callback. In the short term, it mainly follows the oil price fluctuations. The basis has strengthened passively, and the cost support has improved due to the significant increase in calcium carbide prices. The shortage of raw material ethylene has intensified the expectation of load reduction of global ethylene-based PVC devices, and some domestic ethylene-based devices have started to reduce their loads [1][14] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of V01, V05, and V09 have all declined, with the V05 closing price dropping by 6.4%. The main contract position has decreased by 6.3%, and the weighted position has decreased by 3.1%. The trading volume has decreased by 1.6%. The V05 basis is -33 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread is -87 yuan/ton [12][13] PX/PTA - **Core View**: Callback. The geopolitical game has reached a critical node, and some long funds have left the market to wait and see. The TA valuation is relatively high, and the basis has strengthened. The supply side has seen domestic device load reduction, and the downstream polyester start-up load has increased, but the terminal weaving orders have weakened month-on-month. The PX fundamentals have improved, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [2][16] - **Market Data**: The TA05, TA09, and TA01 closing prices have all increased. The PTA spot processing fee is 317.8 yuan/ton, and the PTA factory processing fee is 332.8 yuan/ton. The PTA social inventory has decreased slightly [15] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Core View**: Callback. The geopolitical conflict has not significantly eased, and both domestic and overseas devices have continuously reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease in March and April, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease. The downstream demand is relatively good but weaker than the same period last year [2][20] - **Market Data**: The overall ethylene glycol start-up load is 66.45%, and the port inventory is at a low level in the same period. The polyester comprehensive load has continued to increase, but the production and sales are average, and the weaving orders have declined month-on-month [20] Methanol - **Core View**: Callback. The geopolitical game dominates the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and the overseas device load is low. The import volume is expected to decrease in March and April. The demand side is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating to be depleted [2][24] - **Market Data**: The methanol main contract is at a high level in the past year, and the basis and spread have weakened. The spot prices in the European and American methanol markets are relatively strong [24] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish. The domestic and foreign price spreads of urea are large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply side has seen a decline in urea start-up but remains at a high level in the same period. The demand side has recovered, and the factory inventory has continued to decrease. The overall fundamentals are relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in export policies [3][27] - **Market Data**: The UR05, UR09, and UR01 closing prices have all declined. The urea comprehensive profit is 188.12 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small particle basis is 29 yuan/ton [26] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Oscillation. The export orders have improved, and the price of high-concentration caustic soda has increased significantly. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has intensified the expectation of load reduction of ethylene-based chlor-alkali integrated devices at home and abroad. The domestic maintenance intensity has increased, and the factory inventory has declined from a high level. The profit of Shandong ECU has been repaired, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export order volume [1][32] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of SH01, SH03, SH05, and SH09 have all declined. The SH05 basis is -288 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread is -48 yuan/ton [31][32]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: ★★, Bullish [1] - PP: ★★, Bullish [1] - PVC: ★★, Bullish [1] - PX/PTA: ★, Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★, Bullish [5] - Methanol: ★★, Bullish [6] - Urea: ★, Cautiously Bullish [6] - Caustic Soda: ★, Sideways [1] Core Views - Supply contraction and cost support drive the prices of L, PP, PVC, and ethylene glycol to remain bullish. The prices of PX/PTA and methanol are expected to be bullish due to cost support and improved fundamentals. Urea prices are cautiously bullish due to the large domestic and foreign price difference and the supply - demand situation. Caustic soda prices are expected to move sideways [1][4][5][6]. Summaries by Variety L - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply contraction intensifies, and the cost - end ethylene remains strong. New domestic plant overhauls increase the parking ratio to 15%, and the planned overhaul volume in March increases. Geopolitical conflicts raise the price center, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][11] - **Market Data**: L05 closing price is 8818 yuan/ton, down 1.1% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 728 yuan/ton, down 26.4% [9] PP - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: PDH profit continues to compress, and supply has room for contraction. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost - end strongly supports PP. The current parking ratio is at a high of 21%, the supply - demand pattern is improving, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][14] - **Market Data**: PP05 closing price is 9019 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 259 yuan/ton, up 14.5% [12] PVC - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support is strong, and the reduction of ethylene - based production drives inventory depletion. Geopolitical conflicts exacerbate the expectation of load reduction in global ethylene - based PVC plants. Some domestic ethylene - based plants have started to reduce loads. The market is expected to be bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][18] - **Market Data**: V05 closing price is 5875 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 28.1% [16] PX/PTA - **Core View**: Bullish [4] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the valuation is relatively high. The supply side sees domestic plant load reduction, and the downstream polyester start - up load increases weakly. The fundamentals of upstream PX continue to improve, and the market is expected to remain bullish in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical changes [4][20] - **Market Data**: TA05 closing price is 6070 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan from the previous day; PTA spot processing fee is 317.8 yuan/ton [19] Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Bullish [5] - **Main Logic**: Cost increases and domestic and foreign plant load reduction. The import reduction expectation is expected to be fulfilled, and the port pressure is expected to ease. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March - April [5][24] - **Market Data**: The overall ethylene glycol start - up load is 66.45% (down 0.32pct from the previous period) [24] Methanol - **Core View**: Bullish [6] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and the overseas plant load is low. The import is expected to decrease in March - April. The demand side is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating depletion [6][28] - **Market Data**: The main methanol contract is at a nearly one - year high, and the basis and monthly spread are weakening [28] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish [6] - **Main Logic**: The domestic and foreign price difference of urea is large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Demand has recovered, and the factory inventory is continuously decreasing. The price is restricted by policies [6][31] - **Market Data**: Urea production is 21.04 tons per day, and the comprehensive profit is 188.12 yuan/ton [30] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Sideways [1] - **Main Logic**: The overhaul intensity increases, and the factory inventory declines from a high level. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increase the expectation of load reduction in ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated plants at home and abroad. Pay attention to the spring overhaul progress and export order volume changes [1][36] - **Market Data**: SH05 closing price is 2544 yuan/ton, up 3.2% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 391 yuan/ton, down 22.9% [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Strongly recommended (★★) [1] - MTO/PP: Strongly recommended (★★) [1] - PVC: Strongly recommended (★★) [1] - PX/PTA: Recommended (★) [4] - Ethylene glycol: Strongly recommended (★★) [4] - Methanol: Strongly recommended (★★) [5] - Urea: Cautiously recommended (★) [5] - Caustic soda: Neutral (★) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a tight supply of raw materials, causing the prices of most chemical products to follow the cost side and show a strong upward trend. The supply - side reduction and cost support are the main driving forces for the price increase. However, the market also faces uncertainties such as the progress of spring inspections, changes in export orders, and the impact of policies [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety L - **Core view**: Strongly recommended, following the cost side and showing a strong upward trend [1]. - **Main logic**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a reduction in the load of cracking units due to a shortage of raw materials such as naphtha or ethylene. The domestic parking ratio is 12.3%, and the planned maintenance volume in March has increased. The price center has been raised by the conflict, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][10]. - **Market data**: L05 closing price is 8431 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous day; the L05 basis is - 291 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread is 256 yuan/ton [7][9]. PP - **Core view**: Strongly recommended, following the cost side and showing a strong upward trend [1]. - **Main logic**: The attack on the South Pars field has caused some MTO and PDH units to reduce their loads, with the current parking ratio at a high of 22.3%. The PDH profit is still extremely low. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][14]. - **Market data**: PP05 closing price is 8628 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous day; the PP05 basis is - 18 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread is 472 yuan/ton [12][13]. PVC - **Core view**: Strongly recommended, showing a strong upward trend [1]. - **Main logic**: The geopolitical conflict has led to a continuous increase in the US dollar quotation of ethylene, providing strong cost support. The shortage of raw material ethylene has increased the expectation of load reduction for global ethylene - based PVC units. Some domestic ethylene - based units have started to reduce their loads. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][17]. - **Market data**: V05 closing price is 5735 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2.8% compared to the previous day; the V05 basis is - 55 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread is - 11 yuan/ton [15][16]. PX/PTA - **Core view**: Recommended, showing a high - level fluctuation [4]. - **Main logic**: The geopolitical conflict has not shown obvious signs of easing. The TA valuation is high, and the processing fee is around 300 +. The basis is strong, and the term structure is in a back state. The domestic units have recently reduced their loads, while the downstream polyester start - up load has increased (but the increase is lower than expected). The fundamentals of upstream PX have continued to improve, and the market is expected to improve in March - April [4][19]. - **Market data**: TA05 closing price is 6070 yuan/ton, with an increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the PTA spot processing fee is 317.8 yuan/ton [18]. Ethylene glycol - **Core view**: Strongly recommended, showing a strong upward trend [4]. - **Main logic**: The valuation has been repaired, and the term structure is in a back state. The geopolitical conflict has led to a significant reduction in the loads of domestic and overseas units. The import volume is expected to decrease in March - April, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease. The downstream demand has seasonally recovered, and the fundamentals have continued to improve [4][22]. - **Market data**: EG05 closing price is 4729 yuan/ton, with an increase of 76 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the EG5 - 9 spread is 65 yuan/ton [21]. Methanol - **Core view**: Strongly recommended, showing a strong upward trend [5]. - **Main logic**: The geopolitical game dominates the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The valuation is generally high, and the term structure is in a back state. The domestic methanol load has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, and overseas units have reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease in February - March, and the port inventory is accelerating the reduction [5][26]. - **Market data**: The methanol主力 is at a high level in the past year, and the term structure is in a back state [27]. Urea - **Core view**: Cautiously recommended, the market is under pressure [5]. - **Main logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the overall start - up load has continued to increase. The demand side has a weak reality and strong expectations. The social inventory has continued to accumulate. Under the background of "export quota" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea price has a ceiling and a floor. The market may be affected by the expectation of spring fertilizer use and export speculation, and the short - term trend is slightly strong [5][30]. - **Market data**: UR05 closing price is 1847 yuan/ton, with an increase of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the UR5 - 9 spread is 39 yuan/ton [29]. Caustic soda - **Core view**: Neutral, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Main logic**: Domestic exports are mainly 50% caustic soda, and the low - concentration caustic soda has insufficient follow - up increase, resulting in a continuously weak basis. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased the expectation of load reduction for overseas ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated units, but the domestic overall still maintains a high load. The plant inventory is slowly at a high level, and the spot price has insufficient follow - up increase. The basis has been rapidly compressed to a low level in the same period, and the industry can pay attention to the spot - futures reverse arbitrage opportunity. Attention should be paid to the progress of spring inspections and changes in export orders [1][34]. - **Market data**: SH05 closing price is 2523 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.9% compared to the previous day; the SH05 basis is - 43 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread is - 19 yuan/ton [33][34].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral shock is on the strong side [1] - PTA: Unilateral shock is on the strong side [1] - MEG: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East intensifies, and the trend is on the strong side [1] Core Views - PX: The trend remains strong. The Asian PX operating rate drops slightly, and the supply in the Middle East is tight. The PX - naphtha spread narrows, and the aromatics blending oil economy recovers [7]. - PTA: Supported by costs, the short - term trend remains strong. The PTA operating rate drops, and downstream orders are cautious. The 05 contract processing fee on the disk falls, and the spot processing fee fluctuates greatly [8]. - MEG: The import reduction is expected to expand, and the trend is strong. The domestic and overseas operating rates decrease, and the import volume drops sharply. The prices of spot and futures rise with costs [9]. Summary by Related Content Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, PF, and SC futures yesterday were 9874, 6790, 8182, and 735.4 respectively, with changes of - 144, - 128, - 96, and - 25.8, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 1.44%, - 1.85%, - 1.16%, and - 3.39%. The MEG futures price rose by 23, with a percentage change of 0.48% [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3, the closing prices yesterday were 488, 242, 67, - 166, and 3.2 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 6, 0, 22, and 5.1 [2]. Spot Market - **PX**: On March 18, the PX price dropped, and the valuation was 1250 dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 dollars compared to the previous day. The 4 - 5 and 5 - 9 month - to - month spreads in the derivatives market showed some trading interest [3]. - **PTA**: On March 18, the PTA spot price rose to 6805 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 05 - 88 [5]. - **MEG**: The high - price and low - price transactions of MEG spot this week and next week were around 4920 yuan/ton and 4694 yuan/ton respectively, with an average daily price of 4807 yuan/ton. The high - price and low - price transactions of April futures were around 4960 yuan/ton and 4760 yuan/ton respectively, with an average daily price of 4860 yuan/ton [5]. Polyester Market - A 250,000 - ton/year polyester bottle - chip device in Fujian reduced its load by 50% due to raw material shortages [6]. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on March 18 were still sluggish, with an average sales rate of 10% - 20% by 4 pm [6]. - The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories on March 18 were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 46% by 3 pm [6]. Strategy Suggestions - **PX**: Unilateral attention should be paid to the 9000 - 12000 range, 5 - 9 month - to - month spread positive arbitrage, and long PX short PTA [7]. - **PTA**: Unilateral operations should be carried out in the 6200 - 8000 range, 5 - 9 month - to - month spread positive arbitrage, and long PX short PTA [8]. - **MEG**: Unilateral operations should be carried out in the 4500 - 6000 range and 5 - 9 month - to - month spread positive arbitrage [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Bullish [2] - PP: Bullish [2] - PVC: Bullish [2] - PX/PTA: Cautiously Bullish [5] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Bullish [6] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Urea: Take Profits on High [7] - Caustic Soda: Sideways [2] 2. Core Views - **L**: Geopolitical conflicts persist, ethylene prices rise, and cost support is strong. Supply may decrease due to equipment maintenance, and the market is expected to remain bullish until raw material shortages are resolved [2][11]. - **PP**: High maintenance on the supply side, approaching peak demand season, and improving fundamentals. Geopolitical disruptions have affected some equipment, and the market is expected to be strong in the olefin sector [2][15]. - **PVC**: Rising costs of calcium carbide and ethylene, and the 5 - 9 spread is strengthening. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the expectation of production cuts in ethylene - based PVC, and the market is expected to be bullish [2][19]. - **PX/PTA**: Crude oil is oscillating strongly to make up for the supply gap. TA has a high valuation, and the supply side has seen some equipment cuts. Downstream demand is improving, and the market is expected to improve in March - April [5][21]. - **MEG**: Supply - side equipment has significantly reduced production both at home and abroad. Demand is seasonally recovering, and imports are expected to decrease. The market is expected to improve in March - April [6][24]. - **Methanol**: Geopolitical games dominate the market, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Domestic production is slightly down but still high, and overseas equipment has reduced production. Imports are expected to decline, and the port inventory is decreasing [6][28]. - **Urea**: The nitrogen fertilizer association implements the "supply guarantee and price stability" policy, and exports are difficult to liberalize before the domestic spring plowing ends. The market is fundamentally loose, with high production and weak demand, but there are expectations of spring fertilization and export speculation [7][32]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - concentration caustic soda lags in price increases, and the basis is weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased the expectation of production cuts in ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated equipment. The domestic overall load remains high, and the industry can consider reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [2][36]. 3. Summaries by Variety L - **Market Data**: L05 closed at 8496 yuan/ton, down 2.1% from the previous day. The L05 - 09 spread was 294 yuan/ton, and the L05 basis was - 287 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts drive up ethylene prices, providing cost support. Some cracking equipment has reduced production due to raw material shortages, and planned maintenance in March is increasing [11]. PP - **Market Data**: PP05 closed at 8671 yuan/ton, down 2.1% from the previous day. The PP05 - 09 spread was 492 yuan/ton, and the PP05 basis was - 2 yuan/ton [13][14]. - **Logic**: High maintenance on the supply side, approaching peak demand season. Geopolitical disruptions have caused some MTO and PDH equipment to reduce production, and PDH profits are extremely low [15]. PVC - **Market Data**: V05 closed at 5901 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from the previous day. The V05 - 09 spread was 16 yuan/ton, and the V05 basis was - 171 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Logic**: Rising costs of calcium carbide and ethylene, and geopolitical conflicts have increased the expectation of production cuts in ethylene - based PVC [19]. PTA - **Market Data**: TA05 closed at 6070 yuan/ton. The TA5 - 9 spread was 200 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton [20]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the supply side has seen some equipment cuts. Downstream demand is seasonally recovering, but the increase is weaker than expected. PX fundamentals are improving, and the market is expected to improve in March - April [21]. - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, consider buying on dips, and conduct TA5 - 9 positive spreads [22]. MEG - **Market Data**: EG05 closed at 4729 yuan/ton. The EG5 - 9 spread was 65 yuan/ton, and the EG05 basis was - 57 yuan/ton [23]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to significant production cuts in equipment both at home and abroad. Demand is seasonally recovering, and imports are expected to decrease. The inventory pressure is expected to ease in March - April [24]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions [25]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The methanol market shows a back structure, with weakening basis and spreads [28]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Domestic production is slightly down but still high, and overseas equipment has reduced production. Imports are expected to decline, and the port inventory is decreasing [28][29]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side pressure is relieved, and imports are expected to decline in February - March. Pay attention to the restart time of MTO equipment, and the market is expected to be bullish driven by geopolitical conflicts [30]. Urea - **Market Data**: UR05 closed at 1847 yuan/ton. The UR5 - 9 spread was 39 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle urea basis was 13 yuan/ton [31]. - **Logic**: High production and weak demand, but there are expectations of spring fertilization and export speculation. Under the "export quota" and "supply guarantee and price stability" policies, the market has a ceiling and a floor [32][33]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on high for long positions and pay attention to export policy changes [34]. Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: SH05 closed at 2523 yuan/ton. The SH05 - 09 spread was - 19 yuan/ton, and the SH05 basis was - 43 yuan/ton [35][36]. - **Logic**: Low - concentration caustic soda lags in price increases, and the basis is weak. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased the expectation of production cuts in ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated equipment. The domestic overall load remains high, and the industry can consider reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [36].