GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 品种 周度观点 原油 展望2026年原油的供应过剩压力仍是主导油价运行的最核心驱动，2026年非OPEC+原油供应量将增长120万桶/日。巴西、圭亚那和加拿 大增量较为确定。最终2026年OPEC+如何推进165万桶/日剩余部分产量的回归将成为市场方向的重要变量。此前美国总统特朗普表示委内瑞拉 将向美国提供5000万桶石油；短期或因伊朗局势动荡/俄乌战争的不确定性主导行情波动，中期下跌趋势的核心逻辑仍成立。 PX&PTA 国内外PX装置平稳运行，依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效维持。近期PXN大幅上涨至 季节性高位，效益提升下海外重启计划增多，另外内外盘套利会带来更多进口，供应端存增加预期。本周国内PTA装置基本无变化，由于聚酯当 前开工下降并不明显，叠加上12月份PTA印度出口放量，PTA环节仍在持续去库。不过终端织造的订单天数和库存水平已显示需求转弱 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX is in a short - term pressure with sufficient spot supply and will experience a high - level sideways market [1] - PTA will be in a high - level sideways market [1] - MEG has limited upside space and still faces pressure in the medium term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures**: PX主力昨日收盘价7286，跌50，跌幅 - 0.68%；PTA主力昨日收盘价5150，涨跌0，涨跌幅0.00%；MEG主力昨日收盘价3879，涨41，涨幅1.07%；PF主力昨日收盘价6544，涨12，涨幅0.18%；SC主力昨日收盘价416.3，跌11.9，跌幅 - 2.78% [2] - **Spot**: PX CFR中国昨日价格899.67美元/吨，跌3；PTA华东昨日价格5095元/吨，涨15；MEG现货昨日价格3713元/吨，涨33；石脑油MOPJ昨日价格532.75美元/吨，跌1.5；Dated布伦特昨日价格61.89美元/桶，跌1.02 [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格363.88，涨7.92；PTA加工费昨日价格361.63，涨6.66；短纤加工费昨日价格120.64，跌21.37；瓶片加工费昨日价格43.68，跌25.41；MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34，涨跌0 [2] Market Dynamics - **Crude Oil**: The situation between the US and Venezuela has not intensified, and the market expects Venezuela's production to increase in the long - term, leading to a decline in international oil prices. On January 7, during the Asian trading session, oil prices fell after Trump said Venezuela would supply 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US [3] - **PX**: In the physical market of PX, especially for February arrivals, there has been little improvement in the past few days. The floating price is weak, mainly due to the expected lack of buying interest during the Chinese Lunar New Year. The floating price for February arrivals is at a discount of about $3 per ton, and the discount for March is shallower [5] - **Polyester**: The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers are highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 74% as of 3:00 pm. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 50% as of 3:30 pm [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The future supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil is sufficient, which discounts the aromatics blending oil expectation for the 05 contract. The increase in near - end PX warehouse receipts restricts the performance of near - month contracts. The PXN spread has reached $366 per ton, and enterprises' hedging willingness has increased significantly. The PX industry has weakened, while the capital market has a strong overall expectation for the commodity market [7] - **PTA**: The cost is slightly weak, with a short - term correction and a high - level sideways market. The processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk has risen to over 300 yuan/ton, which is slightly high. The restart of some devices will increase the operating rate, and the overall operating rate will be maintained at about 78%. Although polyester production has decreased slightly, PTA is still in the process of destocking [7] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is still weak, and a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread is recommended. Although the coal - chemical products were strong due to the coal sector's movement, the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is still high, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand from polyester is weakening, and the situation of oversupply cannot be changed in the medium term [8]

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，贸易商商谈为主，少量聚酯工厂有补货，现货基差偏强。个别主 流供应商出货。本周在05贴水45附近商谈成交，月中在05贴水40附近成交，价格商谈区间在5020~5160，1月底在主流05贴水40 有成交。今日主流现货基差在05-41。中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：近期聚酯负荷运行在90.8%附近，但是产业链传导不畅，终端负荷仍有局部下降，需求端支撑力度一般。乙二醇近月 存在季节性累库压力，1-2月累库幅度在55-60万吨附近，市场整体持货意向偏弱。近端受 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：近期聚酯负荷运行在90.8%附近，但是产业链传导不畅，终端负荷仍有局部下降，需求端支撑力度一般。乙二醇近月 存在季节性累库压力，1-2月累库幅度在55-60万吨附近，市场整体持货意向偏弱。近端受海外局势影响，化工品表现偏强，商 品氛围待定下，乙二醇价格重心可适度抬升。但是现货端口宽裕及远月累库压制下，价格上方压制明显，关注油价以及装置变 化。 2、基差：现货5080，05合约基差-70，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.61天，环比减少0.15天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PT ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 南美、中东地缘不确定性上升，油价短线反弹。地缘：南美地缘生变，委 内出现权力真空，中东地缘升温，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过 | | 原油 | | 剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变 | | | | 量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端提振，液化气短线走强。沙特上调明年 1 月 CP 合同价，成本端提 | | LPG | | 振，中长期锚定成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势仍向下；供需方面， | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%，下游化工需求存在韧 | | | | 性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | | | 短期跟随成本端偏强震荡，弱预期限制反弹高度，关注装置变动节奏。停 | | L | 车比例下滑至 空头反弹 | 11%，LL 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货涨后回落，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差偏强，个别聚酯工厂补货。主流供应商有出货。现货在 05贴水40~55商谈成交，价格商谈区间在5050~5150。1月中及下旬货在05-50附近有成交。今日主流现货基差在05-50。中性 6、预期：近期PTA装置变动增多，不过下游聚酯负荷也有所下调，PTA自身供需格局变动不大，期货盘面跟随成本端快速回落， 预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差区间波动。关注宏观情绪及上下游装置变动。 2、基差：现货5105，05合约基差-39，盘面升水 中性 3、 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 1、基本面：周三，现货商谈稀少，1月在05贴水40~50附近商谈，价格商谈区间在5060~5130。今日主流现货基差在05-46。中性 2、基差：现货5097，05合约基差-13，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.61天，环比减少0.15天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 PTA 每日观点 MEG 每日观点 MEG： 1、基本面：周三，乙二醇价格重心走弱，市场商谈一般。夜盘乙二醇价格震荡整理，场内商谈不多。日内乙二醇盘面震荡下行， 上午商谈较为僵持，午后买气有所回升，日内下周现货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level volatile market [1][5] - PTA: High-level volatile market [1][6] - MEG: Limited upside space and medium-term pressure [1][7] 2. Core Views - PX is expected to maintain a high-level volatile market with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and attention should be paid to position management before the holiday [5] - PTA will also stay in a high-level volatile market. Supply is rising while demand decline is limited. It maintains inventory reduction, which is beneficial for the performance of monthly spreads and basis [6] - MEG's port inventory is accumulating again and the trend remains weak. Although the inventory accumulation expectation has marginally improved, it is mainly for range trading [7] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Data**: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures had different closing prices, price changes, and price change rates on the previous day. For example, PX futures closed at 7316 with a price increase of 46 and a rate of 0.63% [2] - **Monthly Spread Data**: The monthly spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC also had price changes compared to the previous day. For instance, the PX1 - 5 monthly spread closed at -28, up 38 from the previous day [2] - **Spot Data**: PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, etc. had price changes. PX CFR China rose from 892.33 to 894.33 dollars/ton [2] - **Spot Processing Fee Data**: The processing fees of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, etc. also changed. The PX - naphtha spread increased by 16 dollars/ton [2] Market Dynamics - PX: Naphtha prices rose at the end of the session. PX prices increased, with three March Asian spot transactions at 895, 895, and 894 dollars/ton. The PX valuation was 894 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars from the previous day [3] - MEG: A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi restarted recently but has not produced yet. The planned arrival quantity at major ports from December 29 to January 4 is about 107,000 tons [3] - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an estimated average sales rate of 30 - 40% by 4 pm. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 55% by 3 pm [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral view [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: It is in a high - level volatile market. Supply is marginally looser with some domestic and overseas device changes. Demand is decreasing as PTA device operating rate drops. Future 1 - 2 months' maintenance plans may expand, and attention should be paid to position management before the holiday [5] - **PTA**: It is in a high - level volatile market. Supply is increasing with some device restarts. Demand decline is limited, and it maintains inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to subsequent production reduction plans and position management before the holiday [6] - **MEG**: The port inventory is accumulating, and the trend is weak. Supply reduction is only in the expected stage, and demand is decreasing. Although the inventory accumulation expectation has marginally improved, it is mainly for range trading [7]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货低开震荡，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差变动不大。贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂递盘。本周 在05贴水65附近商谈成交，下周在05贴水55成交，价格商谈区间在5020~5105。1月中下在05贴水55成交。今日主流现货基差在 05-63。中性 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA装置变动增多，不过下游聚酯负荷也有所下调，PTA自身供需格局变动不大，期货盘面跟随成本端快速回落， 预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差区间波动。关注宏观情绪及上下游装置变动。 2、基差：现货5 ...

中辉能化观点 | 中辉能化观点 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘缓和，油价重返基本面定价。地缘：南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣 | 押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠 | 原油 | | | | 谨慎看空 | 加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和 | ★ | | | 成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油 | 产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | | 成本端承压，供给量上升，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，短线有所反弹， | 大趋势仍向下，成本端偏弱；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH | LPG | | | | 谨慎看空 | ★ | 开工率升至 | 75%，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下 | | | 降。 | | | | | | 现货由涨转跌，弱基差抑制反弹空间。基本面供需双弱，检修降负不足， | LL | 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期 | | ...