中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘持续扰动，霍尔木兹海峡运行受阻，油价短期偏强。地缘：伊朗 | | 原油 | | 革命卫队指挥官顾问宣称霍尔木兹海峡已被封锁，关注后续通行情况；重 | | ★★ | 谨慎看多 | 要驱动：3 月 1 日，OPEC+召开会议，将于 4 月份增产 20.6 万桶/日；关 | | | | 注变量：中东地缘走势，OPEC+实际产量，美国原油产量。不建议追涨， | | | | 建议期权双买策略。 | | | | 成本端提振，液化气走势偏强。成本端油价偏强，同时伊朗丙烷出口受阻， | | LPG | 谨慎看多 | 国内从伊朗进口丙烷占比 30%，成本端提振。供需双增，商品量与下游 | | ★★ | | 化工开工率均上升，库存端偏利空，港口与厂库连续上升。不建议继续追 | | | | 涨，建议期权双买策略。 | | | | 地缘扰动仍存，夜盘 5-9 月间价差走强，预计短期盘面偏强震荡。2025 | | L | | 年我国自波斯湾 5 国进口 LL 为 167 万吨（占比 35%） ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年3月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，个别主流供应商有出货。下周主流在05-60有成交，少量在05-58附近，价格商谈区间在5135~5190元/吨附近， 3月中在05-50~55有成交。3下主流在05-45附近成交，个别有高低。4月上在05-35成交。今日主流现货基差在05-60。中性 2、基差：现货5200，05合约基差-95，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.01天，环比增加0.27天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 6、预期：年后PTA装置重启加速，库存积累较为明 ...

GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 原油 本周原油整体呈现震荡上行的走势，均价环比上涨。地缘局势方上，目前美伊双方已经进行两轮间接谈判，但仍未取得实质进展，市场对美 伊冲突的担忧仍存，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军在霍尔木兹海峡附近举行演习。供应方面，委内瑞拉石油供应预计增加，OPEC+一季度仍维持原 油产量稳定，但市场对于该联盟自4月份起开始增产的预期有所升温。市场等待美伊第三轮核谈，美国态度上更倾向于与伊朗继续核谈，这将引 导油价降温下行，短期国际原油价格或保持震荡格局。 PX&PTA 国内PX负荷无变化，估值跟随原油冲高回落，PX加工费维持在305美元/吨左右，PX二季度供应收紧远月预期依然较好，且地缘不确定性仍 存，下方支撑较强。周内有PTA装置 ...

中辉能化观点 尿素 ★ 谨慎追涨 下行但仍处同期高位。需求端弱现实强预期，冬储需求走弱，复合肥开工高位下滑， 工业需求相对稳定；尿素及化肥（硫酸铵、氯化铵）出口相对较好，近期印度新一 轮尿素招标开启。社库持续去库（库存大幅低于去年同期）。在"出口配额制"及 "保供稳价"背景下，作为重要农资，尿素上有顶下有底。整体来看，尿素基本面 偏宽松，但市场存春季用肥预期及出口交易逻辑，需求端存支撑。节后延续震荡偏 强走势。 2 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，油价高位震荡，关注美伊谈判进展。地缘：地缘政治主导 油价，美伊谈判达成协议难度较大，地缘落地前油价偏强；核心驱动：供 | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线上会议，消息称 OPEC+将于 4 月 | | ★ | | 继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 美伊谈判尚未落地，跟随成本端油价高位震荡。成本端油价短期受地缘扰 | | LPG | 震荡 | 动波动加剧，地缘落地前成本端利好； ...

PTA&MEG 聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚 聚聚聚聚 2026/2/24 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | PTA | 聚聚聚聚聚 | 聚聚 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 假期原油反弹偏多,PX/PTA高开上涨。假期PTA供应变化不大，需求聚酯负荷不高，假期累库偏多，节后 关注地缘和油价影响。3月PTA计划检修量不低，供需预期向好，整体低买思路。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 月差企稳，现实端累库中，3月后预期尚可。 | | 现货 | 中性 | PTA现货市场商谈一般，基差偏弱，2月货在05-70附近商谈，价格商谈区间在5250~5300附近。 | | 成本 | 中性 | 假期PX装置负荷高位，近端浮动价一般，PXN320美元附近，成本PX现实一般，预期尚可。 | | 装置变动 | 谨慎偏多 | 假期新材料重启，英力士125万吨按计划检修中，另一条110万吨短停5天。独山2月10日检修中，YS3套装 置检修中。3月PTA计划检修不低，预期供应有改善。 | | 下游需求 | 中性 | 聚酯2月检修高位，负荷不高，2-3月负荷评估79%、90%。织造复工预计初八至正月十 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年2月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货上涨，市场商谈氛围一般，少量聚酯工厂递盘，个别主流供应商出货，现货基差先稳后松，本周货在 05贴水60~65有成交，下周货在05贴水50~60成交，价格商谈区间在5230~5340。3月中05贴水40成交，3月下05贴水35有成交。今 日主流现货基差在05-62。中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 6、预期：2月供需开工分化，库存积累较为明显，不过短期码头库存积累一般，基差下行压力可控。近期加工差尚可，装置检 修不多，即使聚酯负荷预期内提负，去库节奏有所延后，关注后期上下游装置变动。 2、基差： ...

| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，外盘油价走强，节后首日内盘大概率高开补涨。地缘：地 | | 原油 | | 缘政治主导油价，美伊谈判达成协议难度较大，地缘落地前油价偏强；核 | | ★ | 看多 | 心驱动：供给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线上会议，消息称 OPEC+ | | | 将于 | 4 月继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘 | | | | 进展。 | | | | 成本端油价攀升，成本端利好，液化气震荡偏强。成本端油价短期受地缘 | | LPG ★ | 看多 | 扰动波动加剧，地缘落地前成本端利好；供需双增，商品量与下游化工开 | | | | 工率均上升；库存端偏利空，港口库存连续上升。 | | | | 春节期间现货信息停滞，预计节后开盘跟随成本端震荡偏强。节前标品装 | | L | 反弹 | 置陆续回归，基差持续偏弱震荡，两油石化库存降至 46 万吨，处于 5 年 | | ★ | | 同期最低位，预计节后石化库存累库至 90 万吨左右。后市检修力度并不 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely due to geopolitical tensions, potential supply disruptions, and uncertainties in future Fed policies, while in the long - term, there is an oversupply situation [4]. - PX is expected to have a short - term shock operation, and there is still an upward possibility in the medium - term, with attention paid to the post - holiday demand recovery [4]. - MEG is expected to operate in a shock manner, and its medium - term fundamentals are expected to improve weakly, with attention paid to overseas situation changes [5]. - Pure benzene is expected to operate in a short - term shock, and styrene is expected to operate following costs during the Spring Festival [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The EIA predicts that the Brent crude oil price will be $58 per barrel in 2026 (an increase of $2 per barrel from before) and $53 per barrel in 2027 (previously $54 per barrel) [4]. - Short - term oil price fluctuations are intensified, and geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in future Fed policies are the main factors [4]. - OPEC+ and other oil - producing countries' long - term production increase trend remains unchanged, and there is an oversupply situation in the long - term [4]. PX&PTA - Domestic PX load remains unchanged, downstream demand drops to zero before the festival, and PX processing fees fall to around $300 per ton [4]. - PTA devices remain unchanged this week, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the inventory accumulation trend will continue in February [4]. - PTA has an overhaul expectation in the second quarter, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is still favorable [4]. MEG - The seasonal inventory accumulation from January to February reaches the highest level since 2021, and the future expectation is difficult to reverse [5]. - Polyester demand weakens, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand of ethylene glycol, and device losses expand [5]. - The ethylene glycol price is at a low level, with certain support around 3,600 yuan per ton [5]. BZ&EB - For pure benzene, the supply pressure increases as the start - up rate increases by 2.4% to 75.4% after the overhaul of multiple devices [5]. - The downstream profits are significantly differentiated, with good profits for styrene and average for others [5]. - The port inventory of styrene is de - stocked at a low level this week, and it is expected to start seasonal inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival [5]. Industry Data - Domestic PX weekly capacity utilization rate is 91.65%, an increase of 1.78% from last week; Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 80.28%, an increase of 0.97% from last week [8]. - This week, the PTA spot market price is 5,158 yuan per ton, an increase of 45 yuan per ton from last week; the PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 76.13%, a decrease of 0.16% from last week [14]. - This week, the ethylene glycol price in East China is 3,638 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26 yuan per ton from last week; the domestic ethylene glycol total start - up rate is 64.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% [19]. - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of China's polyester industry is 75.99%, a decrease of 3.54 percentage points from last week; the start - up rate of sample enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving is 11.76%, a decrease of 10.71% from the previous data [24]. - This week, the domestic capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; the capacity utilization rate of styrene factories is 71.08%, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% [29].

中辉能化观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中东地缘反反复复，油价短期震荡偏强。地缘：中东地缘拉扯，下周美伊 | | 原油 | 震荡调整 | 将继续谈判，地缘不确定性较大，短期防风险为主；核心驱动：供给过剩 | | ★ | | 格局仍未扭转，需求淡季到来，油价仍有下行压力；关注变量：美国页岩 | | | | 油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短期受地缘扰动反弹偏强，短期带动气价回升。成本端油价短 | | LPG | | 期受地缘扰动震荡盘整，但地缘溢价下降，后续支撑下降；供需方面，液 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 化气商品量出现下降，PDH 开工率连续下降，降至 70%以下，化工需求 | | | | 支撑降低；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | L | | 上中游库存窄幅波动，装置回归，基差延续偏弱震荡，假期临近，谨慎操 | | ★ | 空头盘整 | 作，关注节后需求验证情况。线性产量维持同期高位，本周中英石化等装 | | | | 置计划重启，预计供给延续增加趋势，基本面偏空。 | | | | 成本端丙烷、丙烯延续 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For PTA, recently it has turned to weekly inventory accumulation, with its processing fee and PXN compressed. Considering the improved cash - flow in downstream sectors, limited potential for PX supply increase at current valuation, and no obvious load increase in TA devices, the valuation is becoming reasonable. One can focus on phased positive spreads and long - position opportunities [1] - For MEG, after the recent compression of its valuation, the reduction in supply has further increased. Although short - term inventory accumulation continues, the certainty of inventory reduction in the far - month at the current price has increased. During the production - expansion cycle, its overall elasticity is limited, and one can focus on short - term put - selling opportunities [4] - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken, and it has entered the pre - holiday load - reduction stage. The absolute inventory pressure is not large, with low - to - medium valuation and weak driving force, and the overall contradiction is limited. One should pay attention to the situation of warehouse receipts [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Device and load**: Some PTA devices restarted, with the operating rate rising month - on - month. Polyester load continued to decline, and inventory continued to accumulate [1] - **Price and spread**: The basis strengthened slightly, and the spot processing fee weakened month - on - month. PX restarted in China, with the overseas load rising slightly. PXN continued to contract month - on - month, and both disproportionation and isomerization benefits weakened. The aromatics spread between the US and Asia remained weak [1] - **Transaction information**: The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions was 2605(-60), and Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton device was under maintenance [1] MEG - **Device and load**: Near - term domestic oil - based production restarted while coal - based production was under maintenance, with the overall operating rate rising slightly. The arrival at ports was stable, and the port inventory continued to increase significantly at the beginning of next week. The forecast of arrivals during the week declined slightly [4] - **Price and spread**: The basis weakened slightly, and the coal - based production benefit contracted [4] - **Transaction information**: The basis of MEG spot transactions was against 05(-112), and Shanxi Woneneng's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [4] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Device and load**: The pre - holiday maintenance of some devices continued, with the operating rate further dropping to 77.7%. The sales were weak, and the inventory increased month - on - month [4] - **Price and spread**: The spot processing fee improved month - on - month. The operating rate of the polyester yarn end continued to decline, and both raw material inventory and finished - product inventory remained stable. The benefit remained stable month - on - month [4] - **Transaction information**: The spot price was around 6594, and the market basis was around - 70 against 03 [4] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Price information**: There were daily and weekly changes in the prices of various types of rubber, such as美金泰混,美金泰标, etc. For example, the weekly change of美金泰混 was 25 [4] - **Spread and profit information**: There were also changes in various spreads and processing profits, like the spread between混合 and RU主力, and the processing profit of泰标 [4] Styrene - Related Products - **Price information**: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and related products changed daily. For example, the price of EPS (East China general) decreased by 105 from February 9th to 10th [6] - **Profit information**: The domestic profits of ABS, EPS, PS, and other products also changed. For example, the domestic profit of ABS decreased by 80 from February 9th to 10th [6] - **Operating rate information**: The operating rates of EPS, ABS, and PS had their own trends over time [6] POY - **Cash - flow information**: The POY cash - flow had a certain trend from 2020 to 2026 [7]