2025年12月30日，星期二 距离2026年首次成品油调价窗口（1月6日24时）仅剩7天。本轮油价计价周期已推进至第6天，完成60%的统计工作，受昨天国际油价大涨影响，国内汽柴油 价格暂处上调状态，涨幅未出现收窄迹象。 【国际油价】12月29日国际油价迎来显著上涨，WTI2月轻质原油价格报58.08美元/桶，涨幅达2.36%；布伦特2月原油价格报61.94美元/桶，涨幅2.14%。受 此影响，本轮周期前6个统计日的原油均价小幅攀升，WTI均价为57.98美元/桶，布伦特原油均价为61.92美元/桶，较前一日微涨0.01美元/桶，直接导致国内 油价预计涨幅维持稳定。 | 工作日 | 日期 | 调整 | 涨/跌 (元/吨) | 每月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 12月23日 | 上涨 | 70元/吨 | 10.06- | | n | 12月24日 | 上涨 | 85元/吨 | 10.07- | | 3 | 12月25日 | 上涨 | 85元/吨 | 10.07- | | 4 | 12月26日 | 上涨 | 85元/吨 | 10.07- | | 5 | 12月2 ...

2025年临近尾声，全球能源市场正处于地缘政治风暴的中心。从加勒比海的油轮拦截，到黑海能源设施 的遇袭，再到中东潜在的新一轮军事打击，三大地缘政治热点在同一时间维度共振，再次点燃了市场对 供应中断的担忧，并盖过了基本面的疲软预期。 据环球时报报道，美国海岸警卫队在委内瑞拉附近海域采取了更激进的拦截行动，这是本月内的第三 次，标志着美国对委内瑞拉石油出口的封锁显著升级。 中东局势同样面临变数。据央视新闻援引美国全国广播公司（NBC）消息，以色列正策划针对伊朗弹 道导弹设施的新一轮打击，并计划寻求美国支持。这是继今年6月该地区爆发大规模冲突后的又一次潜 在升级，令刚刚显露复苏迹象的美伊谈判前景蒙上阴影。 与此同时，乌克兰无人机袭击了俄罗斯黑海沿岸的能源出口关键基础设施，导致码头与船只受损。市场 分析人士指出，这些直接针对能源运输链条的军事行动，迫使交易员重新评估供应安全风险。 受上述多重风险因素推动，国际油价周一大幅收涨。布伦特原油期货上涨1.60美元，涨幅2.7%，报收于 每桶62.07美元；美国WTI原油期货上涨1.49美元，涨幅2.6%，报收于每桶58.01美元。 虽然"Bella 1"号当时尚未装载货物， ...

Group 1: Oil Price Surge - International oil prices experienced a sudden spike, with WTI and Brent crude oil rising sharply due to reports of the U.S. preparing new sanctions against Russia if Moscow does not agree to a peace plan regarding Ukraine. Brent crude futures saw an increase of up to 2.4%, surpassing $60 per barrel during trading [1]. Group 2: U.S. Actions Against Venezuela - President Trump ordered a complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, citing reasons such as asset theft, terrorism, drug trafficking, and human trafficking [2][4]. - The U.S. military seized a tanker near Venezuela, which was allegedly involved in transporting oil from Venezuela and Iran, as part of a broader strategy to enforce sanctions against entities supporting foreign terrorist organizations [6]. - The U.S. Treasury updated its sanctions list, adding six tankers related to Venezuela, while Venezuela's Foreign Minister condemned the seizure as an act of "international piracy" [6]. Group 3: Military Presence and Tensions - The U.S. has increased its military presence in the Caribbean near Venezuela, deploying F-35A fighter jets and EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft, indicating preparations for potential military action rather than mere symbolic displays of force [6]. - Venezuela's Defense Minister stated that surrender is not an option for the country, emphasizing readiness to defend against U.S. actions and asserting that the Venezuelan people are resisting what they perceive as U.S. imperialism [6][7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the imminent increase in gasoline and diesel prices in China, with a projected rise of 3.35% for 92 and 95 octane gasoline, translating to an increase of 160 yuan per ton, which equates to approximately 0.13 yuan per liter [1][3]. Price Trends - As of November 2, 2025, the WTI crude oil price is reported at $60.57 per barrel, while Brent crude is at $65 per barrel, with an average crude oil price of $62.81 per barrel for the first four working days of the pricing cycle [3]. - The oil price increase has shown a significant reduction in growth, with a decrease of 70 yuan per ton compared to the first working day of the cycle [3]. Market Factors - The decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 6.86 million barrels has exceeded market expectations, contributing to a more optimistic outlook on energy demand [3]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Hamas situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are raising concerns about potential reductions in Russian oil exports, further impacting market sentiment [3]. Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to support market economic prospects, particularly with a weakening U.S. dollar, which may boost energy demand [5]. - Positive developments in U.S.-East Asia trade negotiations are alleviating concerns over trade disputes, contributing to a more optimistic global economic recovery outlook [5]. Future Projections - The domestic crude oil price change rate is expected to rise to 3.42%, with gasoline and diesel price increase expectations potentially reaching 165 yuan per ton [5]. - The article suggests that if OPEC+ does not meet production increase expectations in November, it could further support a strong oil market, indicating a risk of continued price increases in the following week [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw an initial rise in the shares of the three major oil companies, driven by an increase in oil prices following new sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russian oil companies due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Movement - Oil prices in Asia rose significantly, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures increasing by 2.9% to $60.22 per barrel and Brent crude futures also rising by 2.9% to $64.39 per barrel [1]. - The rise in oil prices is attributed to the U.S. sanctions on Russia's largest oil producers, which has alleviated concerns over supply excess amid signs of excessive recent selling and a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) saw its stock price increase by 2.36%, reaching HKD 19.960 [1]. - PetroChina's stock rose by 1.01%, reaching HKD 7.970 [1]. - Sinopec's stock experienced a smaller increase of 0.48%, reaching HKD 4.150 [1].

Group 1 - The U.S. government has imposed sanctions on major Russian oil producers, leading to a significant increase in oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate rising by 2.5% to nearly $60 per barrel and Brent crude settling around $63 per barrel [1] - The sanctions target state-owned Russian oil giants Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, which together account for nearly half of Russia's crude oil exports, with an average daily export volume of approximately 2.2 million barrels in the first half of this year [2] - The sanctions come as part of a broader strategy to pressure President Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, marking a shift in the U.S. administration's stance [1] Group 2 - The European Union has reached an agreement on a new package of sanctions against Russia, which is expected to be approved soon, targeting 45 entities that assist Russia in evading sanctions, including 12 companies based in mainland China and Hong Kong [2] - The oil and gas sector contributes about one-quarter of the Russian federal budget, highlighting the economic significance of these sanctions [2] - Despite the recent price increase, futures prices may continue to decline for the third consecutive month due to signs of global oversupply [1]

Group 1 - President Trump claims the government shutdown presents a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity" to cut more Democratic priorities, indicating a strategy to undermine political opponents during the shutdown period [4][5] - The White House has frozen approximately $18 billion in funding for two major infrastructure projects in New York City and canceled about $8 billion in climate-related projects favoring Democratic states [4][5] Group 2 - A top forex analyst warns that the government shutdown exacerbates risks for the US dollar, with critical Federal Reserve communications becoming essential for traders due to the absence of economic data [7] - The political deadlock has delayed the release of weekly jobless claims data and may postpone the monthly non-farm payroll report [7] Group 3 - Amazon is under federal investigation after two Prime Air delivery drones collided with a crane in Arizona, leading to a temporary halt of drone services in the area [9] - The incident occurred near a commercial area close to an Amazon warehouse, prompting the company to cooperate with authorities for an investigation [9] Group 4 - Intel's stock price surged over 50% last month, with shares reaching above $37, resulting in the value of the US government's 10% stake in the company rising to approximately $16 billion [11] - The Trump administration acquired 433.3 million shares of Intel at $20.47 per share, totaling an investment of $8.9 billion [11] Group 5 - Elon Musk urged his followers to cancel their Netflix subscriptions due to controversy surrounding an animated show, which has drawn criticism from conservative groups [13] - The controversy relates to the show's representation of transgender characters, leading to its cancellation after two seasons in 2023 [13] Group 6 - President Putin stated that if the global market loses Russian oil supply, prices could "skyrocket" and exceed $100 per barrel [15] - He emphasized the severe implications for the global energy sector and economy if Russian oil is removed from the market [15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in oil prices is driven by geopolitical tensions and market dynamics, with expectations of further increases in the near future [1][3][4] Price Adjustments - A new round of oil price adjustments is underway, with an expected increase of 120 yuan per ton, leading to a rise of 0.1 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 gasoline [1][2] - By October 13, the price increase could reach 200 yuan per ton, potentially pushing 92 gasoline prices above 7.2 yuan per liter [2] Market Dynamics - The oil price fluctuations are influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has created supply concerns in the European market [3] - The recent softening of the US dollar due to Federal Reserve policies has attracted speculative investments in the oil market, further driving up prices [3] Consumer Behavior - Consumers face a dilemma on whether to refuel now or wait for potential price drops, with current prices in Shandong around 7.08 yuan per liter [4] - The upcoming holiday season is expected to increase gasoline demand, contributing to the likelihood of price hikes [3][4]

Economic Outlook - There is a disconnect between oil prices and future growth expectations of the U.S. economy, especially with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September 2025 [1] - Lower interest rates are expected to boost business activity and earnings potential, which could lead to increased demand for oil [2] Oil Demand and Stock Opportunities - Historically, increased business activity leads to higher oil demand, and current low inventories could result in a price spike if demand rises [2] - Companies like First Solar Inc. (FSLR), Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), and Transocean Ltd. (RIG) are positioned to benefit from potential increases in oil prices [2] First Solar Inc. (FSLR) - First Solar's stock is currently priced at $219.20, with a P/E ratio of 18.75 and a price target of $228.80, indicating potential for growth [3] - EPS is expected to rise from $3.18 to $5.79 by Q4 2025, representing an 82% increase [5] - The PEG ratio suggests that 60% of First Solar's EPS growth has yet to be priced in, with analysts projecting a target of $262, implying a 23% upside [6][7] Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) - Southwest Airlines is noted for its effective fuel cost hedging, which may provide a competitive advantage if oil prices rise [8] - The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 48.91, significantly higher than the transportation sector average of 13.9, reflecting market confidence in its performance [9] - Insider buying activity, such as the purchase of 3,345 shares by a company director, indicates positive sentiment ahead of potential oil price increases [10] Transocean Ltd. (RIG) - Transocean's stock is currently priced at $3.40, with a price target of $4.26, suggesting room for growth [13] - The company is expected to benefit from increased drilling activity as oil demand rises, which could lead to significant EPS growth [14] - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in Transocean, reflecting confidence in its potential upside as oil demand rebounds [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for CNOOC (00883) to HKD 23 and RMB 30 for A-shares, citing improved medium to long-term earnings per share and free cash flow outlook [1] Group 1: Target Price and Ratings - The H-share rating for CNOOC has been upgraded from "Underweight" to "Overweight," while the A-share rating remains "Overweight" [1] - The upgrade reflects an anticipated increase in oil prices by USD 5 per barrel and recent progress in optimizing natural gas sales by CNOOC [1] Group 2: Performance Comparison - CNOOC's A/H shares have underperformed compared to China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) A/H shares by 13-22% year-to-date [1] - The report suggests that OPEC's production increase signals demand recovery and healthy global inventory levels rather than chaos or price wars within OPEC [1] Group 3: Dividend Strategy - CNOOC's unexpected willingness to align its dividend yield with that of China Petroleum, which has successfully decoupled from oil prices, may help limit the downside risk for its stock price [1] - Even with potential oil price declines to USD 55 per barrel by Q1 2026, this strategy could provide some support for CNOOC's stock [1]