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策略专题:基金批量回本的三个注意事项
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-15 06:42
Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the fund redemption pressure during the current and subsequent quarters leads to a "return smile curve" [1][10] - After experiencing redemption pressure, if a fund sees a decline of more than 5% and recovers within a month to reach a new high, it is expected that investors will significantly net subscribe in the following two quarters [1][15] - Data analysis shows that the redemption pressure from returning funds is not substantial; if the proportion of equity funds at historical highs increases from 26% to 50%, it could lead to approximately 30 billion yuan in redemption selling pressure during the quarter [3][22] Group 2 - The report notes that as more equity funds reach new highs, there is a tendency for investors to redeem old funds to purchase new ones, leading to a net redemption scenario for older funds [2][12] - The "every dip is a buying opportunity" mindset is reinforced when funds reach new highs after a pullback, encouraging further investment [2][16] - The analysis indicates that the redemption pressure is primarily concentrated in older funds with significant holdings in sectors like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and power equipment, but the impact remains minimal [3][23]