Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation in China's public fund industry regarding the recognition and application of performance benchmarks, emphasizing the importance of the "Active Share" metric to help investors identify differences in investment strategies and avoid pitfalls associated with "pseudo-active" funds [2][8]. Group 1: Introduction and Regulatory Changes - The article highlights the issue of fund managers in China neglecting performance benchmarks, leading to significant deviations in fund holdings and resulting in poor investor experiences [1]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued an action plan on May 7, 2023, aimed at enhancing the quality of public funds, which emphasizes the central role of benchmarks in defining product positioning, investment strategies, and performance evaluation [1]. Group 2: Active Share Metric - Active Share is defined as a quantitative measure of the difference between a fund's portfolio and its benchmark, calculated by summing the absolute differences in weights of individual securities [4][5]. - The metric allows for a clearer distinction between active management and passive replication, addressing limitations of traditional metrics like R-squared and tracking error [6][7]. Group 3: Current State of Active Equity Funds - As of June 30, 2025, the average Active Share for three categories of active equity funds in China is 89.82%, with 87% of funds having an Active Share above 80% [10][14]. - The article notes that active fund managers often deviate from benchmarks in terms of style, industry, and individual stock selection, leading to high Active Share levels [13]. Group 4: Category Analysis - The average Active Share for large-cap growth, large-cap balanced, and small-cap funds is reported as 89.86%, 86.29%, and 96.26%, respectively, indicating that small-cap funds exhibit significantly higher Active Share [14]. - The article explains that the concentration of large-cap stocks in indices limits the active management opportunities, while small-cap stocks provide a broader range of potential excess returns [14]. Group 5: Case Studies - The article compares two funds within the same category, highlighting significant differences in their Active Share due to varying investment strategies, with one fund maintaining a stable Active Share around 70% and the other nearing 100% [17]. - The contrasting strategies illustrate how fund managers' approaches to portfolio construction can lead to different levels of risk and performance volatility [17]. Group 6: Future Insights - The next article will delve into the relationship between Active Share and fund performance, as well as how to identify strategy drift and "pseudo-active" funds in light of new regulations [23].

Group 1: Active Equity Funds "Asset-Liability" Positive Cycle - In Q3 2025, the stock position of active equity funds rose to 87.26%, primarily driven by an increase in A-share allocation, while Hong Kong stock allocation slightly decreased but remained at historical highs [2][10] - The median performance of active funds in Q2 2025 was approximately 22.05%, marking a new quarterly high since Q2 2019, with over 75% of active funds outperforming their benchmarks [2][15] - The net outflow from active equity funds increased significantly from 91.60 billion yuan in Q2 2025 to 217.85 billion yuan in Q3 2025, indicating a growing redemption pressure [2][21] Group 2: Active Equity Fund Positioning and Performance - Active equity funds have shown a renewed concentration in holdings, particularly increasing allocations to large-cap growth and mid/small-cap value stocks, with TMT sector allocation exceeding 40%, a historical high [3][18] - The performance of top-performing funds in Q3 2025 exhibited significant exposure to growth factors, high valuations, and strong momentum, indicating a trend of "stronger getting stronger" alongside some reversal characteristics [3][19] - The proportion of active equity funds reaching new net asset value highs has significantly increased, suggesting a potential shift in the underlying assets [3][24] Group 3: "Fixed Income+" Funds - The scale of "Fixed Income+" funds continued to rise significantly in Q3 2025, with stock positions reaching relatively high levels since 2024 [3][28] - "Fixed Income+" funds also increased allocations to electronic, medical, electric new energy, and communication sectors, mirroring trends seen in active equity funds [3][30] Group 4: Individual Investors as Incremental Capital - Since October 2025, individual investors, including those participating in margin trading and personal ETFs, have remained the primary source of incremental capital in the market [4][31] - The active equity funds have experienced a decline in performance since October, with new equity fund issuance also decreasing, indicating a critical point in the quest for "pricing power" [4][33]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current bullish sentiment in the market and the anxiety among investors regarding their equity positions [4][5] - It emphasizes that while it is normal to feel anxious in a rapidly rising market, there is no need for excessive worry as long-term performance is challenging to outperform [5][7] - The article presents data showing that from 2010 to now, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 61.38%, while actively managed equity funds have returned 102.04%, indicating that consistent outperformance is difficult [5][7] Group 2 - The article suggests that investors should gradually increase their risk appetite rather than making drastic changes to their portfolios [10][12] - It recommends optimizing bond fund holdings by transitioning from pure bond funds to those with some equity exposure, thereby increasing risk exposure incrementally [13] - The article also highlights the importance of adjusting dividend stock holdings to include funds with growth attributes, as traditional dividend strategies may lag in a bullish market [15][16] Group 3 - For broad index investments, the article advises switching from the Shanghai Index or CSI 300 to the more balanced and growth-oriented CSI A500 [19] - It suggests that investors holding growth-oriented ETFs should consider upgrading to indices that have stronger performance potential in a bull market [20] - The article emphasizes that any adjustments should be made cautiously to avoid significant risks if the market does not perform as expected [21] Group 4 - The article discusses the optimization of actively managed funds, recommending a shift from deep value funds to balanced value and then to growth-oriented funds as market conditions improve [22] - It suggests rotating between fund managers based on performance, favoring those who have shown better results in the current market environment [23] - The overall message is to maintain a calm approach to investing, making small adjustments to align with the current market sentiment while managing risk effectively [25]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the fund redemption pressure during the current and subsequent quarters leads to a "return smile curve" [1][10] - After experiencing redemption pressure, if a fund sees a decline of more than 5% and recovers within a month to reach a new high, it is expected that investors will significantly net subscribe in the following two quarters [1][15] - Data analysis shows that the redemption pressure from returning funds is not substantial; if the proportion of equity funds at historical highs increases from 26% to 50%, it could lead to approximately 30 billion yuan in redemption selling pressure during the quarter [3][22] Group 2 - The report notes that as more equity funds reach new highs, there is a tendency for investors to redeem old funds to purchase new ones, leading to a net redemption scenario for older funds [2][12] - The "every dip is a buying opportunity" mindset is reinforced when funds reach new highs after a pullback, encouraging further investment [2][16] - The analysis indicates that the redemption pressure is primarily concentrated in older funds with significant holdings in sectors like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and power equipment, but the impact remains minimal [3][23]

Group 1 - High-net-worth investors are actively entering the market, with significant inflows from private equity, leveraged funds, and speculative trading [1][11][14] - Private equity has seen a notable increase in institutional account openings, while individual account growth remains limited [14] - Leveraged funds have averaged daily inflows of 5.5 billion since July, with the current financing balance exceeding 2 trillion, a record high since 2015 [14][16] - Speculative trading has become active, with net inflows ranking just below the levels seen in 2015 [14][16] Group 2 - Resident funds have not significantly entered the market through public funds, with limited expansion in actively managed equity fund issuance and net subscriptions [2][18] - The issuance of actively managed equity funds remains at historical lows since the market shift in September 2022 [18] - Passive index funds are experiencing outflows, contrasting with the previous market conditions where funds flowed into equity ETFs [19][21] Group 3 - Retail investor participation is low, with current engagement levels not matching those of previous bull markets [3][27] - Retail fund inflows are limited, significantly weaker than the previous market conditions in September 2022 and February 2023 [27] - Recent data indicates a marginal decline in the balance of bank-to-securities transfers, suggesting that retail investors have not significantly entered the market [27][28] Group 4 - There is a growing trend of residents seeking higher returns through bank wealth management products due to excess savings and declining deposit rates [4][12][33] - The one-year fixed deposit rate has fallen below 1%, and the yield on popular wealth management products is only 1.05%, prompting a shift towards wealth management and fixed-income funds [4][33][34] - The combination of abundant funds and a scarcity of attractive assets is expected to accelerate the flow of resident funds into wealth management products, indirectly entering the equity market [4][12][34] Group 5 - Recent data shows a net outflow of 8.591 billion from foreign investments, particularly in financial, non-essential consumer goods, and industrial sectors [37][38] - Speculative trading saw a net inflow of 4.831 billion, primarily into the pharmaceutical, electronics, and machinery sectors [43][46] - Leveraged funds recorded a net inflow of 31.563 billion, focusing on electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [48][53]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the public fund industry from "scale" to "return" focus, suggesting a positive outlook for the industry in the medium to long term [1][11]. Core Insights - The recent regulatory changes are expected to lead to a reallocation of public fund investments towards underweighted sectors, particularly in the financial and consumer goods industries, which may enhance overall market performance [4][44]. - The report highlights that the public fund industry is likely to evolve towards a model that closely tracks benchmark indices, with a significant portion of assets allocated to large-cap stocks [3][17]. - The anticipated increase in passive investment strategies is expected to drive up the valuation of benchmark indices like the CSI 300, with a projected increase of 6.8% [4][43]. Summary by Sections Short-term Market Dynamics - Market volatility is attributed to speculative trading based on expectations of increased public fund allocations, particularly in the financial sector [2][16]. - The report notes that the adjustment of fund portfolios will likely be gradual rather than abrupt, as detailed guidelines on performance benchmarks are still pending [2][16]. Medium to Long-term Changes in Fund Behavior - From a product perspective, actively managed equity funds are expected to transition towards a "quasi-index" model, with 60%-80% of assets closely tracking benchmark indices [3][17]. - Larger funds are more inclined to adopt conservative strategies that align closely with benchmarks to ensure stable returns, reflecting the need to meet investor expectations [3][25]. Impact of Regulatory Changes on Market Ecology - The report draws parallels between the current public fund adjustments and the influx of foreign capital in 2016-2017, noting a similar "signaling effect" but emphasizing the current lack of strong fundamental support for the affected sectors [4][26]. - The anticipated shift towards benchmark alignment is expected to elevate the valuation premiums of major indices, particularly the CSI 300 and the CSI 800, as more funds adopt passive investment strategies [4][32]. - Specific sectors such as financial services and consumer goods are identified as likely beneficiaries of increased public fund allocations due to their current underweight positions in fund portfolios [5][44].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown resilience and recovery following the "black swan" event triggered by the US's imposition of high tariffs, with many actively managed equity funds capitalizing on this opportunity to achieve new highs in net value [1][2]. Fund Performance - As of April 25, 250 actively managed equity funds have rebounded from the "golden pit" created by the tariff event, reaching new highs in net value for the year [1][2]. - Notably, the Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Select A fund has achieved a remarkable 64.44% increase year-to-date, primarily investing in innovative pharmaceutical companies listed in Hong Kong [2][3]. - Several funds focused on the pharmaceutical sector, such as Changcheng Pharmaceutical Industry Select A and Yongying Pharmaceutical Innovation Select A, have also reported year-to-date returns exceeding 40%, with a strong emphasis on innovative drug stocks [3]. Investment Focus - The majority of the funds that have performed well are heavily invested in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs and companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange [2][3]. - The Jin Yuan Shun An Yuan Qi fund has seen a staggering 396.6% increase since its inception, with a diversified investment strategy that limits exposure to any single stock [4]. - The Guotai Consumer Select fund has also performed well, focusing on high-quality companies in the consumer sector, including mid-to-high-end liquor and home appliances [4][5]. Market Outlook - Fund companies suggest a focus on domestic demand in the short term, while long-term investments should consider technology sectors, particularly those related to AI [6][7]. - The BoShi Fund emphasizes three main investment themes: defensive strategies during market volatility, opportunities in emerging industries driven by technological advancements, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies [6]. - Huabao Fund highlights the importance of sectors supported by domestic demand and policy expectations, including financials, real estate, and new consumer trends [7].