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方正证券:固态电池产业加速发展 关注设备投资机遇
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 02:21
Core Viewpoint - The report from Founder Securities indicates that by 2030, the shipment volume of solid-state batteries is expected to reach 209 GWh, with semi-solid batteries accounting for 147 GWh and all-solid batteries for 63 GWh. The market size for solid-state battery equipment is projected to be approximately 40.8 billion yuan, with semi-solid equipment at 22 billion yuan and all-solid equipment at 18.9 billion yuan. The current landscape of solid-state battery equipment companies is characterized by a dual-driven model of "traditional lithium battery leaders transforming + emerging specialized players" [1][2]. Solid-State Battery - The core innovation of all-solid-state batteries is the replacement of liquid electrolytes and separators with solid electrolytes. Solid electrolytes, while not enhancing energy density on their own, offer greater stability and safety compared to liquid electrolytes, allowing compatibility with high-capacity anodes and cathodes. This can significantly increase the energy density of battery cells. The safety features of solid electrolytes, including high thermal and chemical stability, reduce risks of leakage, combustion, or explosion, thus enhancing intrinsic safety [2][3]. Semi-Solid Battery - Semi-solid batteries incorporate solid electrolytes into lithium-ion batteries while retaining a small amount of liquid electrolyte. The anode and cathode materials include a combination of ternary, lithium iron phosphate, and silicon-based materials. The domestic semi-solid battery industry is currently 2-3 years ahead of international counterparts in terms of industrialization progress, achieving commercial production requirements in both technology and cost [3]. Electrolyte Types - Electrolytes are primarily categorized into sulfide, oxide, polymer, and composite solid-state electrolytes. Sulfide electrolytes exhibit the best overall performance, particularly in ionic conductivity and electrochemical stability, but face cost challenges. Asian markets are focusing on sulfide routes, while North America and Europe are more inclined towards polymer and oxide routes. It is anticipated that by 2035, sulfide routes could account for approximately 43% of the market, becoming the mainstream option [4]. Anode and Cathode Materials - The cathode materials for solid-state batteries can continue to utilize existing lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese oxide, lithium cobalt oxide, and high-nickel multi-materials. Commonly used anode materials include graphite, lithium titanium oxide, and silicon-based materials. The potential anode materials for solid-state batteries include carbon-based, silicon-based, and lithium metal anodes, with lithium metal and silicon anodes showing the most promise. However, challenges remain regarding physical contact issues and stability between the anode, electrolyte, and cathode [5]. Equipment Changes - The production of all-solid-state batteries requires new custom equipment for specific processes, while existing equipment will need precise upgrades. The cost of equipment for liquid batteries is approximately 100 million yuan per GWh, whereas for all-solid-state batteries, it ranges from 400 to 500 million yuan. This cost difference is attributed to reduced equipment efficiency and increased equipment quantity needed for production. However, with domestic equipment replacement and economies of scale, costs are expected to decrease over time [6].