Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the coming week (July 28 - August 1), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate. For soybean meal, attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the China - US economic and trade talks in Sweden. The domestic spot market is accumulating inventory as expected, with limited marginal changes. With little change in fundamentals and improved sentiment, the price is expected to fluctuate and wait for new guidance. For domestic soybeans, the spot market is stable, and the growth of new soybeans is good, so the futures market will continue to focus on technical fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Soybean Market (July 21 - July 25) - **US Soybean Sales and Shipment**: The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week and were at the lower end of expectations, with a neutral - to - bearish impact. In the week of July 17, the 2024/25 US soybean export shipments were about 360,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 30%, and the cumulative export shipments were about 46.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipments to China were 0, and the cumulative shipments to China were about 22.48 million tons (about 23.9 million tons in the same period last year). The current - year (2024/25) weekly net sales were about 160,000 tons (about 270,000 tons in the previous week), and the next - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 240,000 tons (about 530,000 tons in the previous week), with a combined total of about 400,000 tons (about 800,000 tons in the previous week), at the lower end of the expected range (350,000 - 850,000 tons). The weekly net sales to China in both the current and next crop years were 0 [2]. - **US Soybean Good - to - Excellent Rate**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans decreased week - on - week and was lower than expected, with a slightly bullish impact. As of the week of July 21, the good - to - excellent rate was 68%, compared with 70% in the previous week, 68% in the same period last year, and a market expectation of 71% [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Data**: As of the week of July 25, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery decreased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week, with little impact [2]. - **US Soybean - Producing Area Weather**: According to the July 26 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (July 27 - August 9), the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly higher than normal, and the temperature will be "high first and then low", with a neutral impact [2]. Domestic Futures Market (July 21 - July 25) - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The price of domestic soybean meal futures first rose and then fell. The rise was due to strong domestic market sentiment, reaching a new high since mid - April. The fall was affected by news such as "regulating pig production capacity" and "reducing soybean meal substitution", but these were long - term policy directions, and the news had limited impact on the market. The main reason was the excessive short - term upward pressure and the need to correct the rapid price increase. The weekly decline of the main soybean meal contract m2509 was 1.15% [1][2]. - **Soybean Futures**: The price of domestic soybean futures fluctuated. The spot market was stable, with little change in fundamentals, and the market trend was mainly driven by technical factors. The weekly increase of the main soybean contract a2509 was 0.84% [2]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market (July 21 - July 25) - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 25, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 138,500 tons, compared with about 132,500 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of July 25, the average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, compared with about 185,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased week - on - week. As of the week of July 25, the weekly average basis was about - 167 yuan/ton, compared with about - 160 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 80 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of July 18, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 870,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 10% and a year - on - year decrease of about 25% [4]. - **Soybean Crushing Volume**: The weekly soybean crushing volume decreased slightly week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of July 25, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.24 million tons (2.31 million tons in the previous week and 1.97 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 63% (65% in the previous week and 56% in the same period last year). Next week (July 26 - August 1), the oil mills' soybean crushing volume is expected to be about 2.37 million tons (2.07 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 67% (59% in the same period last year) [4]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market (July 21 - July 25) - **Soybean Prices**: Soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In the Northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans was 4,240 - 4,340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; in the Inner Pass region, it was 5,140 - 5,280 yuan/ton, also unchanged; in the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans was 4,660 - 4,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - **New Bean Growth in the Northeast**: New soybeans in the Northeast were growing well, mostly in the flowering and pod - setting stages. The trading of old soybeans was slow, and most transactions were for replenishing inventory out of necessity. Some traders were waiting for the new soybeans to be listed after clearing their inventory [5]. - **Demand in Sales Areas**: It was the off - season for demand, and the demand in sales areas was weak. Due to the hot weather, the production and preservation of soy products were difficult, which suppressed the demand for soy products. Many soy product factories stopped or limited production due to slow sales, and were cautious in purchasing raw soybeans. Dealers in many places said that the sales of domestic soybeans were slower than in the same period last year [5].