Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Cost side: Brent oil price ranges from $60 to $65 per barrel. Since Q3, oil supply from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly, with a bearish fundamental drive for oil prices. However, market differentiation due to sanctions persists, and the impact of geopolitical and macro events on sentiment needs to be considered [2]. - PX: PXN was $271 per ton in the previous - previous trading day (a $6.25 per - ton increase from the previous period). With market speculation on the Asia - America aromatics arbitrage and the lifting of India's BIS, PXN has widened recently. Relying on the current ample MX supply, PX load can be effectively maintained at a high level even with some fluctuations in refinery start - ups. Overseas PX remains stable at a medium - high level. PXN is supported by polyester start - up, but its rebound space is limited due to high PX load and capacity expansion of individual plants. Attention should be paid to the diversion of gasoline blending in the strong gasoline market [2]. - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is - 36 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 194 yuan/ton (a 7 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 255 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Recently, PTA maintenance is concentrated, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts PTA export demand. Supported by the polyester load upstream, PTA supply - demand has improved, and the basis has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the polyester load. In the long - term, after the end of the concentrated capacity release cycle, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [3]. - Demand: The polyester start - up rate is 91.3% (a 0.8% increase from the previous period). Since late October, domestic sales orders have improved significantly with the cooling weather and the start of the Double Eleven sales. The load of looms and texturing machines has rebounded sharply, and the rebound of raw material prices has led to concentrated restocking. The sales of filament yarns have increased significantly, and inventories have been reduced to a low level. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of October released positive news, reducing the fentanyl tariff by 10%, which may drive some external demand orders. Currently, polyester factory inventories are low, and the polyester load is not expected to decline significantly in the short term, remaining around 91% [3]. - PF: The spot production profit is 171 yuan/ton (a 13 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventories have been reduced to a low level. Direct - spun polyester staple fibers fluctuate and consolidate following raw materials. There is concentrated restocking by downstream at the stage - low price, but it is difficult to raise prices. With the marginal weakening of demand orders, the short - fiber processing fee is slightly compressed [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 463 yuan/ton (a 15 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The bottle - chip load remains stable, and large manufacturers generally maintain production cuts. The inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [4]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The rebound space of the 01 contract may be limited, and pay attention to the 05 contract in the long - term. For cross - variety and cross - period trading, there are no recommended strategies [5][6]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][14] Upstream Profit and Spread - It covers PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - The report shows the toluene America - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It includes information on China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [28][31][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It covers filament yarn sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine start - up rate [47][49][53] PF Detailed Data - It includes polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][72][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [84][86][93]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a cautious and slightly bullish stance on PX, PTA, PF, and PR. However, due to fundamental pressures, the upside potential of the 01 contract may be limited. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the 05 contract. [4] - For PX, China's PX load has returned to a relatively high level. Supported by polyester production, PXN has support, but its upside space is restricted by high PX load and capacity expansion of some units. The focus is on the gasoline blending situation. [4] - Regarding TA, there are many maintenance plans in November, so the inventory accumulation pressure is not significant. But after December, as demand weakens, the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually emerge. The market has abundant spot supply, limiting the upside of the 01 contract. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. [4] - For PF, the load is high, factory inventories have been reduced to a low level, and the fundamentals provide some support. Processing fees are expected to remain stable. [4] - For PR, the fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed significantly. Maintenance continues, but the off - season demand is average. It is expected that the spot processing fees of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations. [4] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis. [8][11][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes figures on PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits. [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report shows figures on toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits. [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It provides figures on PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX load in China and Asia. [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, PTA's total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA's warehouse receipt inventory, PX's warehouse receipt inventory, and PF's warehouse receipt inventory. [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It presents figures on filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. [47][49][53] VII. PF Detailed Data - The report shows figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, spreads between original and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and production profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn. [68][72][79] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads. [87][89][100]