化工日报 | 2025-12-17 原油走弱，PX相对抗跌 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，俄乌和平谈判继续释放积极信号，油价刷新阶段新低，Brent原油跌破60美元/桶。尽管欧盟就俄罗斯"影 子舰队"相关活动以及俄方"混合威胁"分别采取新一轮制裁措施，近期地缘层面多空交织，但总体朝偏空方向倾斜。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN287美元/吨(环比变动+5.00美元/吨）。PX装置平稳运行。在明年上半年的良好预期下， PXN较为坚挺。依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效维持。近期 在PX交割逻辑支撑下1-5月差明显走强，明年二季度PX检修较多，远端预期较好，同时聚酯开工坚挺下PXN有支 撑，但调油无明显起色，需求季节性淡季下PXN反弹空间也受限。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -16元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+4元/吨），PTA现货加工费190元/吨（环比变动+2元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费262元/吨（环比变动-2元/吨），近端检修计划较多，且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求，聚酯负 荷支撑下，PTA小幅去库，基差反弹。但后续1月随着需求转弱累库压力将逐步体现。 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-04 市场震荡运行，PXN偏强 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，Brent油价维持60~65美元/桶运行，欧佩克+同意明年全集团保持产量稳定，八个主要产油国重申明年Q1 暂停增产，部分缓解油价压力，油价有所反弹。整体基本面对油价的驱动偏空。但制裁导致的市场分化依然存在， 需要考虑地缘与宏观事件对情绪面的扰动。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN284美元/吨(环比变动+2.25美元/吨）。依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重 整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效维持在高位，海外PX中高位持稳。聚酯开工支撑下PXN有支撑，但PX负荷高 位以及个别装置扩能下PXN反弹空间也受限，关注调油情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -35元/吨 元/吨(环比变动-2元/吨），PTA现货加工费173元/吨（环比变动-4元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费264元/吨（环比变动+0元/吨），近期PTA检修集中，且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求，聚酯负 荷支撑下，PTA供需好转，基差反弹。中长期集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.5%（环比+0.2%），近期 ...

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Cost side: Brent oil price ranges from $60 to $65 per barrel. Since Q3, oil supply from the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly, with a bearish fundamental drive for oil prices. However, market differentiation due to sanctions persists, and the impact of geopolitical and macro events on sentiment needs to be considered [2]. - PX: PXN was $271 per ton in the previous - previous trading day (a $6.25 per - ton increase from the previous period). With market speculation on the Asia - America aromatics arbitrage and the lifting of India's BIS, PXN has widened recently. Relying on the current ample MX supply, PX load can be effectively maintained at a high level even with some fluctuations in refinery start - ups. Overseas PX remains stable at a medium - high level. PXN is supported by polyester start - up, but its rebound space is limited due to high PX load and capacity expansion of individual plants. Attention should be paid to the diversion of gasoline blending in the strong gasoline market [2]. - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is - 36 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 194 yuan/ton (a 7 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 255 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Recently, PTA maintenance is concentrated, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts PTA export demand. Supported by the polyester load upstream, PTA supply - demand has improved, and the basis has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the polyester load. In the long - term, after the end of the concentrated capacity release cycle, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [3]. - Demand: The polyester start - up rate is 91.3% (a 0.8% increase from the previous period). Since late October, domestic sales orders have improved significantly with the cooling weather and the start of the Double Eleven sales. The load of looms and texturing machines has rebounded sharply, and the rebound of raw material prices has led to concentrated restocking. The sales of filament yarns have increased significantly, and inventories have been reduced to a low level. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of October released positive news, reducing the fentanyl tariff by 10%, which may drive some external demand orders. Currently, polyester factory inventories are low, and the polyester load is not expected to decline significantly in the short term, remaining around 91% [3]. - PF: The spot production profit is 171 yuan/ton (a 13 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventories have been reduced to a low level. Direct - spun polyester staple fibers fluctuate and consolidate following raw materials. There is concentrated restocking by downstream at the stage - low price, but it is difficult to raise prices. With the marginal weakening of demand orders, the short - fiber processing fee is slightly compressed [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 463 yuan/ton (a 15 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The bottle - chip load remains stable, and large manufacturers generally maintain production cuts. The inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [4]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The rebound space of the 01 contract may be limited, and pay attention to the 05 contract in the long - term. For cross - variety and cross - period trading, there are no recommended strategies [5][6]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][14] Upstream Profit and Spread - It covers PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - The report shows the toluene America - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It includes information on China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [28][31][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It covers filament yarn sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine start - up rate [47][49][53] PF Detailed Data - It includes polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][72][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [84][86][93]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Brent oil price ranges from $60 to $65 per barrel. Since Q3, oil supply in the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia has increased significantly, with a bearish impact on oil prices. However, market differentiation due to sanctions persists, and geopolitical and macro - events may affect market sentiment [1]. - For PX, the PXN was $262 per ton (a $2.25 per - ton increase from the previous period). With the speculation on the aromatics arbitrage between Asia and America and the lifting of India's BIS, the PXN has widened. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, PX load can be maintained at a high level. PXN is supported by polyester production, but its rebound space is limited due to high PX load and capacity expansion of some plants [1]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 49 yuan per ton (a 14 - yuan - per - ton increase from the previous period). PTA spot processing fee is 197 yuan per ton (a 9 - yuan - per - ton increase), and the processing fee of the main contract on the futures market is 270 yuan per ton (a 1 - yuan - per - ton increase). Recently, PTA maintenance is concentrated, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts PTA export demand. With support from the upstream of polyester load, the pressure of PTA inventory accumulation is small, and the basis has rebounded. But as demand weakens, the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually emerge. In the long - term, after the end of the centralized capacity - release period, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [1]. - The polyester operating rate is 91.3% (a 0.8% increase from the previous period). Since late October, domestic sales orders have improved significantly, and the load of looms and texturing machines has rebounded sharply. The raw material price rebound has led to concentrated restocking, and the sales of filament yarn have increased significantly, with inventory reduced to a low level. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of October released positive news, which may drive some external demand orders. Currently, polyester factory inventory is low, and the polyester load is expected to remain around 91% in the short - term [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 135 yuan per ton (a 20 - yuan - per - ton decrease from the previous period). The short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventory has been reduced to a low level. Direct - spinning polyester staple fiber fluctuates with raw materials. There is concentrated restocking by downstream at the price low, but it is difficult to raise prices. As demand orders weaken marginally, the short - fiber processing fee is slightly compressed [2]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 444 yuan per ton (a 3 - yuan - per - ton decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip load remains stable, large manufacturers generally continue to cut or stop production, and the inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [2]. - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The rebound space of the 01 contract may be limited, and the 05 contract should be focused on in the long - term. For PX, China's PX load has returned to a relatively high level, and PXN is supported by polyester production, but its rebound space is limited. For TA, there are many maintenance activities in the near - term, and the inventory accumulation pressure is small, but it will gradually increase as demand weakens. The 01 contract's upside is limited, while the long - term outlook is better. For PF, the load is high, factory inventory is low, and the processing fee is expected to be maintained. For PR, the fundamentals of bottle chips change little, and the spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main - contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main - contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East - China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural - white basis [7][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve the toluene Asia - America spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [27][30][36] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [37][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament yarn sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate [49][51][61] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled price difference, pure - polyester yarn operating rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [73][82][86] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East - China water - bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [90][92][102]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a cautious and slightly bullish stance on PX, PTA, PF, and PR. However, due to fundamental pressures, the upside potential of the 01 contract may be limited. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the 05 contract. [4] - For PX, China's PX load has returned to a relatively high level. Supported by polyester production, PXN has support, but its upside space is restricted by high PX load and capacity expansion of some units. The focus is on the gasoline blending situation. [4] - Regarding TA, there are many maintenance plans in November, so the inventory accumulation pressure is not significant. But after December, as demand weakens, the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually emerge. The market has abundant spot supply, limiting the upside of the 01 contract. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. [4] - For PF, the load is high, factory inventories have been reduced to a low level, and the fundamentals provide some support. Processing fees are expected to remain stable. [4] - For PR, the fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed significantly. Maintenance continues, but the off - season demand is average. It is expected that the spot processing fees of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations. [4] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis. [8][11][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes figures on PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits. [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report shows figures on toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits. [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It provides figures on PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX load in China and Asia. [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, PTA's total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA's warehouse receipt inventory, PX's warehouse receipt inventory, and PF's warehouse receipt inventory. [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It presents figures on filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. [47][49][53] VII. PF Detailed Data - The report shows figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, spreads between original and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and production profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn. [68][72][79] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads. [87][89][100]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Under the expectation of anti-involution, PTA fluctuates strongly. The oil price fluctuates, and the market trades around the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine and the news of OPEC+ production increase in December. In November, there are many maintenance plans for PTA, so the pressure of inventory accumulation is not great. However, after December, as demand weakens, the pressure of inventory accumulation will gradually emerge. In the long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve, but the spot supply in the market is relatively abundant, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. The polyester start-up rate is 91.3% (down 0.4% month-on-month). The domestic sales orders have improved significantly since late October. The inventory of polyester factories is not high, and the polyester load is expected to remain around 91% in November. The fundamentals of PF are okay, and the processing difference is maintained. For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the raw material price fluctuations [1][2][3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - It includes the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][10] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It covers the PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18] III. International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - It involves the toluene US-Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start-up - It includes the start-up rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX start-up rates in China and Asia [26][29][30] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It contains the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [33][36][37] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes the sales volume of filament and short fiber, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, inventory days of filament factories, and the start-up rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [44][46][56] VII. PF Detailed Data - It covers the load of polyester staple fiber, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, load of recycled cotton-type staple fiber, spread between original and recycled fibers, start-up rates of pure polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn, and their production profits and processing fees [66][67][75] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes the load of polyester bottle chips, bottle chip inventory days of bottle chip factories, spot processing fee of bottle chips, export processing fee of bottle chips, export profit of bottle chips, spread between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A-grade white bottle chips, and the month-on-month spreads of bottle chips [83][85][95]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - On Thursday morning, Hengli Petrochemical announced maintenance plans for two sets of equipment, and crude oil rebounded, causing the PTA price to surge. However, in the afternoon, the downstream terminal's operating rate continued to decline, and confidence was lacking, leading to a subsequent decline in PTA. The comprehensive operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 61%, a 2% decrease from last week, and the comprehensive operating rate of texturing machines in the sample area of Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 73%, a 5% decrease from last week. The terminal continued to reduce the operating rate to control the raw material consumption speed and the rising speed of grey fabric inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Cost Side - In the short term, the impacts of Trump's tariff policy and OPEC+ production cuts have not subsided. In the medium term, the fundamentals of crude oil remain weak. Trump may lower oil prices to curb inflation, and the market may further trade on recession expectations, resulting in a weakening of oil prices in the medium term [2]. - Regarding gasoline and aromatics, the octane spread has rebounded slightly recently, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals of gasoline are still weak. The US has started stocking up on aromatics, but the overall impact is limited. Since March, South Korea's aromatics exports to the US have decreased significantly month - on - month, and the overall support from the cost side is limited [2]. - For PX, the PXN was $170/ton (a $2/ton increase from the previous period) the day before last. Recently, PX maintenance has been gradually implemented. The current PXN valuation is not high, and there is still support at the bottom, but the rebound is limited under the weak gasoline market. Attention should be paid to changes in crude oil and the macro - environment [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract was 24 yuan/ton (a 4 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee was 213 yuan/ton (a 69 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk was 354 yuan/ton (a 2 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The PTA supply - demand continued to destock, and the basis rebounded. However, with the outflow of warehouse receipts, the liquidity in the spot market was acceptable, and the PTA price mainly fluctuated following the cost side [2]. Demand Side - The polyester operating rate was 93.3% (a 0.1% increase from the previous period). Recently, the operating rates of downstream weaving and texturing have been continuously decreasing. Due to the high inventory of weaving grey fabrics and poor order intake, the willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and the filament inventory has accumulated to a high level. After the relaxation of tariffs in other countries, orders from Southeast Asia have resumed shipping, but direct orders to the US are still greatly affected, and the increase in Southeast Asian export - grabbing orders is limited. Recently, bottle - chip factories have restarted in a concentrated manner, the filament load has remained firm, and the short - fiber load has decreased. The polyester operating rate will remain high in the short term and may decline in May [3]. - For PF, the short - fiber spot basis was 330 yuan/ton (a 20 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PF spot production profit was 334 yuan/ton (a 33 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period), and the processing fee of the PF main contract was 897 yuan/ton (a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Short - fiber factories have gradually implemented production cuts, but the demand side remains weak. The tariff issue has been postponed, and the market sentiment has gradually stabilized, but the willingness to chase high prices continuously is insufficient. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a significant increase in demand - side export - grabbing orders [3]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee was 587 yuan/ton (a 151.10 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). Since the policy has little impact on the bottle - chip's own demand, the bottle - chip is slightly stronger than the raw material. At the historical low price, downstream customers have increased their replenishment. With Trump's implementation of a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the market sentiment has improved. However, the current bottle - chip load has returned to a high level, and the upside space of the polyester bottle - chip factory's processing range is limited. The market price is expected to still fluctuate following the raw material cost [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautious about short - selling and hedging PX/PTA/PF/PR at high prices [4]. - Cross - variety: None [4]. - Cross - period: None [4].