Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in soybean meal prices are influenced by the dynamics of U.S. and Brazilian soybean imports, with market participants closely watching the outcomes of U.S.-China trade negotiations [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Soybean meal prices dropped below 2900 yuan/ton, causing market anxiety about potential new lows due to uncertainties surrounding China's imports of U.S. soybeans [2]. - A rebound in soybean meal prices occurred, driven by a significant increase in Brazilian soybean prices, which led Chinese buyers to slow down their imports [2][4]. - The market is currently in a state of observation regarding the U.S.-China trade talks, which are expected to influence the decision on whether to import U.S. soybeans [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - If China does not import U.S. soybeans and Brazilian soybean prices remain high, the expectation for soybean meal supply shortages may increase, potentially driving prices higher [5]. - China's annual soybean import volume is approximately 100 million tons, with South American soybeans already fulfilling a significant portion of this demand, thus limiting the impact of U.S. soybean imports [8]. - In 2023, China imported about 24.17 million tons of U.S. soybeans, accounting for 24% of total imports, which is projected to decrease to 18 million tons (17%) in 2024 [9]. Group 3: Price Stability and Future Outlook - Current soybean meal prices are near production costs, providing a support level that may prevent significant declines [11]. - The likelihood of soybean meal prices experiencing extreme fluctuations is low, with potential short-term volatility expected but a return to stability thereafter [11].