Group 1: Industry Information - The US Environmental Protection Agency will decide on the biofuel exemption applications of 16 small refineries on Friday, aiming to clear the backlog of such applications during President Joe Biden's tenure. Earlier this year, the EPA approved 140 applications partially or fully and rejected 28, with 20 still under review, including 11 for the 2025 compliance year [1] - From January to October 2025, China's soybean imports were 9,568.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and the edible vegetable oil imports were 555.0 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%. In October, soybean imports were 948.2 million tons, and edible vegetable oil imports were 54.0 million tons [1] - Starting from November 10, 2025, China's General Administration of Customs restored the soybean export qualifications to China of 3 US companies including CHS Inc. [1] Group 2: Price Information - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 3 - 7, 2025, are provided. For example, on November 3, the prices were 2990, 2600, 8350, 8570, and 9850 respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in soybean meal prices is primarily driven by expectations from the US-China trade talks and strong domestic crushing demand, but the sustainability of this rebound is uncertain due to market sentiment and existing pressures in the domestic market [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - Soybean meal futures prices rebounded significantly, closing at 2933 CNY/ton, an increase of approximately 80 CNY/ton from the low point on Wednesday [1]. - As of October 24, the spot price of soybean meal in East China was reported at 2910 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton week-on-week [1]. Group 2: Import and Supply Dynamics - Domestic soybean imports surged to 86.19 million tons in the first three quarters of the year, a 5% increase year-on-year, with a notable 15% increase in imports from May to September [3]. - The total soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills reached 49.54 million tons from May to September, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [3]. - Despite a projected decline in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, the total supply is expected to remain sufficient, with an estimated 32.2 million tons available to meet the average monthly crushing demand of 8.8 million tons [3]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains robust, driven by high inventory levels in the livestock sector, with average weekly consumption reaching 1.71 million tons, significantly higher than last year's 1.55 million tons [4]. - The current spot price of soybean meal is relatively low compared to previous years, making it an attractive option for feed, which supports continued strong demand [4]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The profitability of crushing Brazilian soybeans has significantly decreased, leading to a slowdown in the pace of domestic purchases, with a notable gap in soybean procurement for future months [5]. - There is a procurement gap of 8 to 9 million tons for imported soybeans from November to January 2026, while the remaining export volume from Brazil is only 5 million tons [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in soybean meal prices are influenced by the dynamics of U.S. and Brazilian soybean imports, with market participants closely watching the outcomes of U.S.-China trade negotiations [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Soybean meal prices dropped below 2900 yuan/ton, causing market anxiety about potential new lows due to uncertainties surrounding China's imports of U.S. soybeans [2]. - A rebound in soybean meal prices occurred, driven by a significant increase in Brazilian soybean prices, which led Chinese buyers to slow down their imports [2][4]. - The market is currently in a state of observation regarding the U.S.-China trade talks, which are expected to influence the decision on whether to import U.S. soybeans [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - If China does not import U.S. soybeans and Brazilian soybean prices remain high, the expectation for soybean meal supply shortages may increase, potentially driving prices higher [5]. - China's annual soybean import volume is approximately 100 million tons, with South American soybeans already fulfilling a significant portion of this demand, thus limiting the impact of U.S. soybean imports [8]. - In 2023, China imported about 24.17 million tons of U.S. soybeans, accounting for 24% of total imports, which is projected to decrease to 18 million tons (17%) in 2024 [9]. Group 3: Price Stability and Future Outlook - Current soybean meal prices are near production costs, providing a support level that may prevent significant declines [11]. - The likelihood of soybean meal prices experiencing extreme fluctuations is low, with potential short-term volatility expected but a return to stability thereafter [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that soybean futures are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract rising by 2.16% to 4120.00 yuan/ton as of August 13 [1] - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August 2025 reached 2.7745 million tons, a significant decrease from 8.0415 million tons in the same period last year, although the daily average shipment increased by 26.51% compared to last year [2] - The European Union's soybean import volume for the 2025/26 season is reported at 1.3 million tons, down from 1.47 million tons last year, while the USDA's August supply and demand report indicates a reduction in expected soybean planting and harvesting areas in the U.S. for the 2025/26 season [3] Group 2 - Industry analysis from Dayue Futures suggests that while weather conditions in U.S. soybean-producing regions may support a bottom in soybean prices, the anticipated high yield from South American soybeans and favorable planting conditions in the U.S. may limit price rebounds [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes that the price gap between soybean contracts has reached a new low, indicating that soybean prices are entering an undervalued region, while also highlighting the importance of weather conditions and policy impacts on the market [4] - The report emphasizes the critical growth stage for soybeans in August, with potential weather risks due to high temperatures and low rainfall in certain U.S. regions, which could affect yield [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on the soybean industry from multiple countries, including the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China, covering aspects such as crop growth, export, production, and import [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - US Soybeans - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, the US soybean good-to-excellent rate was 68%, in line with market expectations, up from 67% the previous week and lower than 72% in the same period last year [1]. - The US soybean planting rate was 90%, lower than the market - expected 91%, up from 84% the previous week, higher than 86% last year and the five - year average of 88% [1]. - The US soybean emergence rate was 75%, up from 63% the previous week, higher than 68% last year and the five - year average of 72% [1]. - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547,040 tons, exceeding the market forecast of 155,000 - 400,000 tons, up from the revised 301,459 tons the previous week [1]. - The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons this week. The cumulative US soybean export inspection volume this crop year was 45,188,245 tons, compared with 40,543,390 tons in the same period last year [1]. Brazil Soybeans - As of June 6, about 64% of Brazil's 2024/25 - year soybeans had been sold, lower than 71.8% in the same period last year and the five - year average. The 2024/25 - year soybean production is expected to be 172.45 million tons [1]. - Brazil's 2025/26 - year soybean sales rate was 10.8%, lower than 14.6% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 20.6%. The 2025/26 - year soybean production is expected to be 182.57 million tons [1]. Argentina Soybeans - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that Argentina's 2024/2025 - year soybean production would be 48.5 million tons [1]. - As of the end of May, the soybean crop harvest rate in Argentina was 80.7%, with the early - sown soybeans 86% harvested. The soybean crop yield is expected to be 3,090 kg/ha (46.0 bushels/acre), with a yield range of 1,200 - 3,740 kg/ha (17.8 - 55.7 bushels/acre) [1]. China's Imports - China's soybean imports from January to May were 37.108 million tons, a 0.7% decrease from the same period last year. In May, the soybean import volume was 13.918 million tons [1]. - China's edible vegetable oil imports from January to May were 2.491 million tons, a 12.9% decrease from the same period last year. In May, the import volume was 462,000 tons [1]. - China's grain imports from January to May were 48.368 million tons, a 29.7% decrease from the same period last year. In May, the import volume was 16.552 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - The report provides spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 3 to June 9, 2025 [1].

Core Viewpoint - China's soybean imports in April experienced a year-on-year decline, yet the market anticipates a significant rebound in soybean imports for May and June [1] Group 1 - April soybean import volume in China decreased compared to the same month last year [1] - Market expectations for May and June indicate a substantial increase in soybean imports [1]