Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, trade soybean and rapeseed meal on a short - term basis. With US soybean facing pressure from high - yield expectations and domestic supply remaining loose, focus on the outcome of Sino - US negotiations for soybean meal. For rapeseed meal, although port and coastal oil mill inventories are decreasing, weak terminal demand exists, so pay attention to trade flow changes [45]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [46]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Soybean Meal**: The futures主力合约 (M2601) closed at 3039 on August 28, 2025, down 121 from August 20, a 3.83% drop. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 2980, down 40 from August 20, a 1.32% drop [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures主力合约 (RM601) closed at 2483 on August 28, 2025, down 144 from August 20, a 5.48% drop. The average spot price of rapeseed meal in China was 2540, down 80 from August 20, a 3.05% drop [4]. - **Corn**: The futures主力合约 (C2511) closed at 2185 on August 28, 2025, up 15 from August 20, a 0.69% increase. The spot price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture at Bayuquan Port was 2310, unchanged from August 20 [4]. - **Pig**: The futures主力合约 (LH2511) closed at 13590 on August 28, 2025, down 185 from August 20, a 1.34% drop. The spot price of commercial pigs in Henan was 13.64, down 0.05 from August 20, a 0.37% drop [4]. - **Egg**: The futures主力合约 (JD2510) closed at 2930 on August 28, 2025, down 142 from August 20, a 4.62% drop. The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.22, down 0.02 from August 20, a 0.62% drop [4]. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - **Weather**: In August, the weather in the core production areas such as the US plains and the Midwest was favorable, and the overall good - quality rate of soybeans remained high. The latest US crop growth report showed that the good - quality rate of US soybeans rose from 68% the previous week to 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. September is gradually entering the early harvest stage, and the weather trading window is narrowing [11]. - **US Soybeans**: Entering the early harvest stage in September, focus on US soybean export demand [11]. - **Brazil**: On August 27, the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in August 2025 would be 8.9 million tons, slightly lower than the previous week's estimate of 8.94 million tons. If the forecast comes true, it will be an 11.5% increase from 7.98 million tons in August 2024 but lower than the export volume of 12.02 million tons in July this year [11]. - **Argentina**: On August 28, the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture said that the pace of soybean sales in Argentina slowed down last week. As of August 20, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 29.9 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season, 390,000 tons higher than a week ago, compared with 26.14 million tons in the same period in 2024. Last week, the sales volume was 820,000 tons [11]. - **Supply - Import**: In July 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record 16.7 million tons. Imports from Brazil increased significantly, accounting for 89% of the total imports, reaching 10.39 million tons, a 13.9% year - on - year increase. Imports from the US were only 420,000 tons, a 11.5% year - on - year decrease. Imports from Argentina were 560,000 tons in July, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 670,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 104.7% [11]. - **Demand** - **Pressing**: As of the week ending August 22, the actual soybean pressing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%. The soybean inventory was 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons from the previous week, a 0.31% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 394,000 tons, a 5.46% decrease. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons from the previous week, a 3.8% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 445,300 tons, a 29.71% decrease [11]. - **Transaction**: On August 28, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 126,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous day, and the spot transaction volume was 106,000 tons [11]. - **Inventory** - **Oil Mill Inventory**: As of August 22, the cumulative soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 7.1 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.04 million tons. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will pick up next week, the soybean pressing volume will rise to about 2.5 million tons, and the soybean meal output will increase. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills may rise above 1.1 million tons by the end of August [11]. Supply Side - Import - As of August 28, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 484.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF price of imported soybeans from the US West was 453.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars per ton from the previous week [19]. Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week ending August 28, the soybean pressing profit was 86.60 yuan per ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of the week ending August 22, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4402 million tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons from the previous week. As of August 22, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 62%, the same as the previous week [24]. Inventory Side - As of August 29, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 6.8546 million tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a low level in the past five years. As of August 22, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 985,500 tons, an increase of 11,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a medium level in the past five years [27]. Demand Side - As of August 22, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 155,000 tons, a decrease of 70,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in the past five years [33]. Pig Supply and Demand No specific content provided for further summary. Pig Slaughter and Breeding Profit No specific content provided for further summary. Strategy Recommendation - **Short - term**: Trade soybean and rapeseed meal on a short - term basis. For soybean meal, focus on the outcome of Sino - US negotiations; for rapeseed meal, focus on trade flow changes [45]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: The global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [46]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning Focus on产区 weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [47].