Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The U.S. ProFarmer company's crop inspection shows that the expectation of a bountiful soybean harvest remains unchanged, and the yield per unit is likely to reach a record high. However, due to a significant reduction in the planted area, the overall soybean production is still uncertain [3] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) predicts that Malaysian palm oil prices will remain above 4,300 ringgit, supported by biodiesel demand, tightening soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth. The price strength depends on palm oil's competitiveness against soybean oil in the export market [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,640 yuan/ton, a change of +56 yuan or +0.58% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,526 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.12% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,850 yuan/ton, a change of +24 yuan or +0.24% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,660 yuan/ton, a change of +150 yuan or +1.58%, with a spot basis of P01 + 20 yuan, a change of +94 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,680 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton or +0.58%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 154 yuan, a change of +40 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,980 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 130 yuan, a change of - 4 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Crop Yield Forecasts - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in Ohio to be 185.69 bushels/acre, compared to 183.29 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in South Dakota to be 174.18 bushels/acre, compared to 156.51 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in Ohio in 2025 to be 1,287.28, compared to 1,229.93 in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in South Dakota in 2025 to be 1,188.45, compared to 1,025.89 in 2024 [2] Brazilian "Soybean Moratorium Plan" - Brazil's competition management agency CADE recommends a full investigation of the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan". The general manager of CADE decides to implement "preventive measures" and impose fines on the working group coordinating the plan and the soybean export companies that signed the document [2] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) is concerned about CADE's decision, will take administrative measures to appeal, and will maintain a "cooperative spirit" with the competition regulator [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 declined, while the DCE live hog main contract 2509 rose. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract also decreased. The US Midwest planting belt has favorable soil moisture due to rainfall this week, which is beneficial for crops. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have increased, while the unexecuted contracts have decreased. The Argentine government has reduced the export tax on agricultural products, adding pressure to the market. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate has exceeded expectations, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest [2][3][4][5] - In the short term, CBOT soybean futures are expected to find support at 1000 cents. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract may test the support level of 2920, and the spot price may stop falling and rebound, fluctuating within the range of 2850 - 2900. The live hog market is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with prices changing according to the rhythm of slaughter and the entry and exit of secondary fattening [17][18][20] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract fell by 0.23% to 2983 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose by 25 yuan/ton to 14150 yuan/ton. The national average ex-farm price of三元hogs was 13.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract fell by 1.00% to 1012 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in the Main Producing Areas - The US Midwest planting belt will have rain this week, with favorable soil moisture. The western and eastern regions will have scattered showers from Monday to Tuesday, with temperatures above normal until Tuesday. In the future, there will be scattered showers on Wednesday, mostly dry weather from Thursday to Friday, and scattered showers from Saturday to Sunday. The temperature will drop on Wednesday and be close to or below normal from Thursday to Sunday. The good soil moisture and rainfall can relieve crop stress [3] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 30th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased by 0.52% week-on-week to 645.59 million tons, the soybean meal inventory increased by 4.48% week-on-week to 104.31 million tons, the unexecuted contracts decreased by 14.76% week-on-week to 423.01 million tons, and the apparent consumption of soybean meal decreased by 0.42% week-on-week to 170.19 million tons [4] - On July 29, the import cost of US soybeans was 4140 yuan, a decrease of 37 yuan from the previous day; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3895 yuan, a decrease of 25 yuan; and the import cost of Argentine soybeans was 3670 yuan, a decrease of 19 yuan [4] - On July 28, the soybean meal trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills increased slightly to 116000 tons, the spot trading volume increased to 63000 tons, and the basis trading volume increased to 53000 tons. The average trading price was 2910.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.03 yuan/ton, hitting a nearly two-week low [5] - The Argentine government has reduced the export tax on agricultural products, including soybeans and their products. The soybean export tax has been reduced from 33% to 26%, and the soybean meal and soybean oil export tax has been reduced from 31% to 24.5% [5] - As of July 27, the US soybean good-to-excellent rate was 70%, higher than the previous week's 68% and last year's 67%, which surprised analysts who expected a decline [5] - In the fourth week of July 2025, Brazil exported a total of 10.4472 million tons of soybeans in 19 working days, with an average daily shipment of 549900 tons, a 12.41% increase compared to July last year [5] - As of the week ending July 24, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 409714 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume has reached 47.203279 million tons [6] - In June 2025, the slaughter volume of large-scale designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 30.06 million head, a 6.5% decrease month-on-month and a 23.7% increase year-on-year. The cumulative slaughter volume in the first six months of this year was 183.55 million head, a 14.5% increase year-on-year [6] - In the first half of this year, the total social logistics volume in China was 171.3 trillion yuan, a 5.6% increase year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate in the same period [6] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 3.1%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 35.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 62.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 2.0% [7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live hogs in Henan and DCE live hog futures, live hog basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][12][14][16] 5. Analysis and Strategies - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the expected low temperature and timely rainfall in the US crop belt, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate reached 70% as of July 27, higher than the expected 67%. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract continued to decline due to the impact of the external market and inventory pressure. In the short term, it may test the support level of 2920. Although the current inventory pressure of oil mills is large, the increase in import cost and seasonal consumption growth make the market expect the soybean meal price to rise. The short-term decline of the soybean meal spot price is limited, and it may stop falling and rebound, fluctuating within the range of 2850 - 2900. The market focus is on the Sino-US talks. If US soybeans cannot be imported, the market may import Argentine soybean meal to make up for the supply gap [17][18] - Live Hogs: On the supply side, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has gradually recovered since mid-July, and the proportion of large hog slaughter has accelerated in the southern region due to high temperature and rainy weather, increasing the supply. On the demand side, high temperature suppresses people's willingness to buy pork, and the off-take speed at the terminal is slow. The slaughterhouse operating rate has continued to decline but is higher than last year. Overall, the short-term supply increase and weak demand suppress price fluctuations, but as the price weakens, it may stimulate the breeding end to support the price and attract secondary fattening. The price is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, changing according to the rhythm of slaughter and the entry and exit of secondary fattening [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that favorable weather conditions in the Midwest are positively impacting soybean growth, leading to a decline in CBOT soybean futures [1] - Analysts from StoneX predict an expectation of high yields for soybeans in the future, which could further influence soybean futures prices [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of high yield expectations in North America and a selling wave of Argentine soybeans, leading to a six-day decline in U.S. soybean futures [1] - It raises the question of whether there is still an opportunity for a rebound in soybean meal prices amidst these market conditions [1] Group 1 - North American high yield expectations are contributing to the downward pressure on U.S. soybean futures [1] - The selling trend of Argentine soybeans is intensifying, further affecting market dynamics [1] - U.S. soybean futures have experienced a consecutive six-day decline due to these factors [1] Group 2 - The article speculates on the potential for a rebound in soybean meal prices despite the current bearish sentiment in the soybean market [1]