Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, trade soybean and rapeseed meal on a short - term basis. With US soybean facing pressure from high - yield expectations and domestic supply remaining loose, focus on the outcome of Sino - US negotiations for soybean meal. For rapeseed meal, although port and coastal oil mill inventories are decreasing, weak terminal demand exists, so pay attention to trade flow changes [45]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [46]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Soybean Meal**: The futures主力合约 (M2601) closed at 3039 on August 28, 2025, down 121 from August 20, a 3.83% drop. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 2980, down 40 from August 20, a 1.32% drop [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures主力合约 (RM601) closed at 2483 on August 28, 2025, down 144 from August 20, a 5.48% drop. The average spot price of rapeseed meal in China was 2540, down 80 from August 20, a 3.05% drop [4]. - **Corn**: The futures主力合约 (C2511) closed at 2185 on August 28, 2025, up 15 from August 20, a 0.69% increase. The spot price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture at Bayuquan Port was 2310, unchanged from August 20 [4]. - **Pig**: The futures主力合约 (LH2511) closed at 13590 on August 28, 2025, down 185 from August 20, a 1.34% drop. The spot price of commercial pigs in Henan was 13.64, down 0.05 from August 20, a 0.37% drop [4]. - **Egg**: The futures主力合约 (JD2510) closed at 2930 on August 28, 2025, down 142 from August 20, a 4.62% drop. The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.22, down 0.02 from August 20, a 0.62% drop [4]. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - **Weather**: In August, the weather in the core production areas such as the US plains and the Midwest was favorable, and the overall good - quality rate of soybeans remained high. The latest US crop growth report showed that the good - quality rate of US soybeans rose from 68% the previous week to 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. September is gradually entering the early harvest stage, and the weather trading window is narrowing [11]. - **US Soybeans**: Entering the early harvest stage in September, focus on US soybean export demand [11]. - **Brazil**: On August 27, the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in August 2025 would be 8.9 million tons, slightly lower than the previous week's estimate of 8.94 million tons. If the forecast comes true, it will be an 11.5% increase from 7.98 million tons in August 2024 but lower than the export volume of 12.02 million tons in July this year [11]. - **Argentina**: On August 28, the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture said that the pace of soybean sales in Argentina slowed down last week. As of August 20, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 29.9 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season, 390,000 tons higher than a week ago, compared with 26.14 million tons in the same period in 2024. Last week, the sales volume was 820,000 tons [11]. - **Supply - Import**: In July 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record 16.7 million tons. Imports from Brazil increased significantly, accounting for 89% of the total imports, reaching 10.39 million tons, a 13.9% year - on - year increase. Imports from the US were only 420,000 tons, a 11.5% year - on - year decrease. Imports from Argentina were 560,000 tons in July, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 670,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 104.7% [11]. - **Demand** - **Pressing**: As of the week ending August 22, the actual soybean pressing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%. The soybean inventory was 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons from the previous week, a 0.31% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 394,000 tons, a 5.46% decrease. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons from the previous week, a 3.8% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 445,300 tons, a 29.71% decrease [11]. - **Transaction**: On August 28, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 126,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous day, and the spot transaction volume was 106,000 tons [11]. - **Inventory** - **Oil Mill Inventory**: As of August 22, the cumulative soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 7.1 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.04 million tons. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will pick up next week, the soybean pressing volume will rise to about 2.5 million tons, and the soybean meal output will increase. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills may rise above 1.1 million tons by the end of August [11]. Supply Side - Import - As of August 28, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 484.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF price of imported soybeans from the US West was 453.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars per ton from the previous week [19]. Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week ending August 28, the soybean pressing profit was 86.60 yuan per ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of the week ending August 22, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4402 million tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons from the previous week. As of August 22, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 62%, the same as the previous week [24]. Inventory Side - As of August 29, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 6.8546 million tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a low level in the past five years. As of August 22, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 985,500 tons, an increase of 11,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a medium level in the past five years [27]. Demand Side - As of August 22, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 155,000 tons, a decrease of 70,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in the past five years [33]. Pig Supply and Demand No specific content provided for further summary. Pig Slaughter and Breeding Profit No specific content provided for further summary. Strategy Recommendation - **Short - term**: Trade soybean and rapeseed meal on a short - term basis. For soybean meal, focus on the outcome of Sino - US negotiations; for rapeseed meal, focus on trade flow changes [45]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: The global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [46]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning Focus on产区 weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [47].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The U.S. ProFarmer company's crop inspection shows that the expectation of a bountiful soybean harvest remains unchanged, and the yield per unit is likely to reach a record high. However, due to a significant reduction in the planted area, the overall soybean production is still uncertain [3] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) predicts that Malaysian palm oil prices will remain above 4,300 ringgit, supported by biodiesel demand, tightening soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth. The price strength depends on palm oil's competitiveness against soybean oil in the export market [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,640 yuan/ton, a change of +56 yuan or +0.58% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,526 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.12% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,850 yuan/ton, a change of +24 yuan or +0.24% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,660 yuan/ton, a change of +150 yuan or +1.58%, with a spot basis of P01 + 20 yuan, a change of +94 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,680 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton or +0.58%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 154 yuan, a change of +40 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,980 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 130 yuan, a change of - 4 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Crop Yield Forecasts - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in Ohio to be 185.69 bushels/acre, compared to 183.29 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in South Dakota to be 174.18 bushels/acre, compared to 156.51 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in Ohio in 2025 to be 1,287.28, compared to 1,229.93 in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in South Dakota in 2025 to be 1,188.45, compared to 1,025.89 in 2024 [2] Brazilian "Soybean Moratorium Plan" - Brazil's competition management agency CADE recommends a full investigation of the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan". The general manager of CADE decides to implement "preventive measures" and impose fines on the working group coordinating the plan and the soybean export companies that signed the document [2] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) is concerned about CADE's decision, will take administrative measures to appeal, and will maintain a "cooperative spirit" with the competition regulator [2]

美豆在丰产预期下积弱难返，国内豆粕现货却逆势挺价，是空头陷阱还是强弩之末？机构预警Q4大豆 到港量将"大幅下滑"？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 declined, while the DCE live hog main contract 2509 rose. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract also decreased. The US Midwest planting belt has favorable soil moisture due to rainfall this week, which is beneficial for crops. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have increased, while the unexecuted contracts have decreased. The Argentine government has reduced the export tax on agricultural products, adding pressure to the market. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate has exceeded expectations, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest [2][3][4][5] - In the short term, CBOT soybean futures are expected to find support at 1000 cents. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract may test the support level of 2920, and the spot price may stop falling and rebound, fluctuating within the range of 2850 - 2900. The live hog market is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with prices changing according to the rhythm of slaughter and the entry and exit of secondary fattening [17][18][20] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract fell by 0.23% to 2983 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose by 25 yuan/ton to 14150 yuan/ton. The national average ex-farm price of三元hogs was 13.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract fell by 1.00% to 1012 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in the Main Producing Areas - The US Midwest planting belt will have rain this week, with favorable soil moisture. The western and eastern regions will have scattered showers from Monday to Tuesday, with temperatures above normal until Tuesday. In the future, there will be scattered showers on Wednesday, mostly dry weather from Thursday to Friday, and scattered showers from Saturday to Sunday. The temperature will drop on Wednesday and be close to or below normal from Thursday to Sunday. The good soil moisture and rainfall can relieve crop stress [3] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 30th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased by 0.52% week-on-week to 645.59 million tons, the soybean meal inventory increased by 4.48% week-on-week to 104.31 million tons, the unexecuted contracts decreased by 14.76% week-on-week to 423.01 million tons, and the apparent consumption of soybean meal decreased by 0.42% week-on-week to 170.19 million tons [4] - On July 29, the import cost of US soybeans was 4140 yuan, a decrease of 37 yuan from the previous day; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3895 yuan, a decrease of 25 yuan; and the import cost of Argentine soybeans was 3670 yuan, a decrease of 19 yuan [4] - On July 28, the soybean meal trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills increased slightly to 116000 tons, the spot trading volume increased to 63000 tons, and the basis trading volume increased to 53000 tons. The average trading price was 2910.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.03 yuan/ton, hitting a nearly two-week low [5] - The Argentine government has reduced the export tax on agricultural products, including soybeans and their products. The soybean export tax has been reduced from 33% to 26%, and the soybean meal and soybean oil export tax has been reduced from 31% to 24.5% [5] - As of July 27, the US soybean good-to-excellent rate was 70%, higher than the previous week's 68% and last year's 67%, which surprised analysts who expected a decline [5] - In the fourth week of July 2025, Brazil exported a total of 10.4472 million tons of soybeans in 19 working days, with an average daily shipment of 549900 tons, a 12.41% increase compared to July last year [5] - As of the week ending July 24, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 409714 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume has reached 47.203279 million tons [6] - In June 2025, the slaughter volume of large-scale designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 30.06 million head, a 6.5% decrease month-on-month and a 23.7% increase year-on-year. The cumulative slaughter volume in the first six months of this year was 183.55 million head, a 14.5% increase year-on-year [6] - In the first half of this year, the total social logistics volume in China was 171.3 trillion yuan, a 5.6% increase year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate in the same period [6] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 3.1%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 35.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 62.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 2.0% [7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live hogs in Henan and DCE live hog futures, live hog basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][12][14][16] 5. Analysis and Strategies - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the expected low temperature and timely rainfall in the US crop belt, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate reached 70% as of July 27, higher than the expected 67%. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract continued to decline due to the impact of the external market and inventory pressure. In the short term, it may test the support level of 2920. Although the current inventory pressure of oil mills is large, the increase in import cost and seasonal consumption growth make the market expect the soybean meal price to rise. The short-term decline of the soybean meal spot price is limited, and it may stop falling and rebound, fluctuating within the range of 2850 - 2900. The market focus is on the Sino-US talks. If US soybeans cannot be imported, the market may import Argentine soybean meal to make up for the supply gap [17][18] - Live Hogs: On the supply side, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has gradually recovered since mid-July, and the proportion of large hog slaughter has accelerated in the southern region due to high temperature and rainy weather, increasing the supply. On the demand side, high temperature suppresses people's willingness to buy pork, and the off-take speed at the terminal is slow. The slaughterhouse operating rate has continued to decline but is higher than last year. Overall, the short-term supply increase and weak demand suppress price fluctuations, but as the price weakens, it may stimulate the breeding end to support the price and attract secondary fattening. The price is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, changing according to the rhythm of slaughter and the entry and exit of secondary fattening [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that favorable weather conditions in the Midwest are positively impacting soybean growth, leading to a decline in CBOT soybean futures [1] - Analysts from StoneX predict an expectation of high yields for soybeans in the future, which could further influence soybean futures prices [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of high yield expectations in North America and a selling wave of Argentine soybeans, leading to a six-day decline in U.S. soybean futures [1] - It raises the question of whether there is still an opportunity for a rebound in soybean meal prices amidst these market conditions [1] Group 1 - North American high yield expectations are contributing to the downward pressure on U.S. soybean futures [1] - The selling trend of Argentine soybeans is intensifying, further affecting market dynamics [1] - U.S. soybean futures have experienced a consecutive six-day decline due to these factors [1] Group 2 - The article speculates on the potential for a rebound in soybean meal prices despite the current bearish sentiment in the soybean market [1]