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重启MH370搜寻:深海数据的贝叶斯博弈与七千万美元的期权对赌
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-03 08:25
Core Viewpoint - The search for MH370, marking its 11th anniversary, is not just a governmental response but a calculated commercial experiment involving Ocean Infinity's advanced underwater technology and a $70 million "no find, no fee" clause [2][3]. Group 1: Search Methodology - The search has evolved from traditional grid methods to Bayesian search theory, which updates prior probabilities based on fragmented data, narrowing down the search area to a precise 15,000 square kilometers [3]. - Ocean Infinity's deployment of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) not only aims to find the aircraft but also to create high-resolution seabed maps, which hold significant value in the context of submarine warfare and deep-sea resource exploration [3]. Group 2: Potential Outcomes and Implications - Finding the wreckage may not resolve the controversy but could initiate new legal and geopolitical challenges, especially if mechanical failure or crew manipulation is implicated [4][5]. - The search's intermittent nature reflects a balance of interests among stakeholders, as certainty could lead to significant financial and diplomatic repercussions for involved parties [5]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The incident emphasizes the need for China to develop independent aviation safety protocols and capabilities, reducing reliance on Western companies for search operations [6]. - The tragedy of MH370 serves as a reminder that possessing core technologies and data sovereignty is crucial for ensuring safety in uncertain environments [6].