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10年少了1100万人,东北三省怎么了?
虎嗅APP· 2025-04-22 10:31
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the severe population decline in Northeast China, particularly highlighting the loss of over 11 million people in the last decade, which has significant implications for the region's economic and demographic landscape [5][6][10]. Population Decline Overview - The total population of the three northeastern provinces has decreased by 820,000, marking the highest decline in the country [4]. - From 2014 to 2024, Northeast China has cumulatively lost 11.07 million people, returning to population levels not seen since the 1980s [5][10]. - The population decline is uneven across the provinces, with Liaoning losing 2.23 million, Jilin 4.29 million, and Heilongjiang 8.04 million [13]. Factors Contributing to Population Decline - Heilongjiang has experienced a population decrease of 8 million over 14 years, attributed to the lowest birth rate in the country and a lack of strong urban centers to retain residents [17][18]. - The province's birth rate in 2023 was only 2.92‰, significantly lower than that of Japan and South Korea [18]. - The lack of a strong provincial capital to attract and retain population contrasts with other provinces where major cities have managed to maintain or grow their populations [20][22]. Economic Implications - Northeast China lacks a city with a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan and a population over 10 million, which are critical for economic vitality [32]. - Recent investments from state-owned enterprises and favorable geopolitical changes have led to economic recovery, with Dalian and Shenyang both surpassing 900 billion yuan in GDP [34][35]. - However, the challenge remains to attract and retain population, as the region's overall population continues to decline [41]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that for Northeast China to reverse its population decline, it needs to cultivate new industries and retain young people [30]. - The region's only cities with positive population growth are Dalian, Shenyang, and Changchun, but they face significant hurdles in reaching the 10 million population mark [39][44]. - The competition for population is intensifying, with major cities across the country vying for talent, making it difficult for Northeast cities to attract new residents [42].