2025年10月30日，商务部新闻发言人就中美吉隆坡经贸磋商联合安排答记者问介绍了中美经贸团队通过吉隆坡磋商达成的成果共识 [1]。主要包括关税、出口管制、航运附加费等内容，我们认为，中美吉隆坡磋商的成果共识有助于稳定经贸关系，改善我国外循环， 也会降低市场风险溢价。中金公司总量（宏观、策略、外汇）以及行业（交运、大宗商品、科技、有色、互联网、纺服、家电）为您联 合解读。 2025.10.30 | 中金公司研究部 02 中金研究 CICC Research 宏观走势和投资机会——简评"十五五"规划建议 中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 中金研究 CICC Research 联合解读中美经贸磋商成果 >>点击图片查看全文<< >>点击图片查看全文<< 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》及说明发布[2]，对"十五五"的地位、方针、目标、任 务等问题做了系统阐述。"十五五"具有承前启后的重要地位，达到2035年远景目标需要增长保持在合理区间。在经济新旧动能转换、地 缘冲突易发多发等背景下，未来五年供给侧创新要求更高，百尺竿头更进一步，更注重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the narrative of "deposit migration" in China, where residents are shifting funds from low-return deposits to higher-return investments like stocks, potentially creating a positive feedback loop that could stimulate consumption and domestic demand [2][4]. Group 1: Deposit Migration and Wealth Effect - In July and August, there was a notable decrease of 1.3 trillion yuan in residents' demand deposits, while non-bank deposits increased by 3.3 trillion yuan, indicating a possible flow of funds into capital markets [4]. - The M1 money supply has been rising, suggesting that previously fixed-term deposits are being "activated" and could be available for market entry [4]. - Despite the activation of deposits, the speed of market entry has slowed, as evidenced by a 1 trillion yuan decrease in non-bank deposits in September [4]. Group 2: Consumption and Market Participation - The wealth effect has not yet materialized, as consumption during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival was weaker than expected, with key retail and catering enterprises reporting only a 2.7% year-on-year increase in sales [5]. - The number of new A-share accounts opened from June to September increased from 1.65 million to 2.94 million, but this is still significantly lower than the peak of 6.85 million in October of the previous year [5]. Group 3: Lessons from Japan's 1990s - The article draws parallels between the current low-interest environment in China and Japan's experience in the 1990s, where despite low returns, residents did not significantly increase their stock market participation [12][27]. - In Japan, even during three bull markets in the 1990s, the proportion of household financial assets allocated to stocks did not increase, indicating a lack of sustained market engagement [13][14]. Group 4: Factors Affecting Market Participation - The article identifies three main pressures that affected Japanese residents' willingness to invest in the stock market: declining income expectations, high precautionary savings, and rising debt burdens [27][28]. - Declining income expectations were driven by a challenging job market and stagnant wages, leading to reduced risk tolerance among residents [28][29]. - High precautionary savings were influenced by concerns over the sustainability of Japan's public pension system, prompting residents to favor low-risk assets [37][38]. - Rising debt burdens, particularly from housing loans, further constrained residents' ability and willingness to invest in stocks [44][46]. Group 5: Implications for China - The article suggests that for "deposit migration" and the wealth effect to be sustainable in China, policies should focus on improving income expectations, enhancing the pension system, and alleviating debt burdens [51][52]. - Recent government initiatives aimed at promoting quality employment and strengthening labor protections are seen as steps in the right direction [52][55]. - Continued efforts to develop a robust pension system could reduce residents' precautionary savings and encourage more investment in the stock market [53][54].