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政策与大类资产配置月观察:“特朗普不确定”再起
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-04 06:44
Domestic Policy News - The General Secretary emphasized accelerating the construction of an education powerhouse, highlighting the importance of education for national strength and rejuvenation [9][10] - Premier Li Qiang attended the ASEAN-China-GCC summit, focusing on regional economic cooperation amidst global challenges [11][12] - The People's Bank of China introduced a new management method for cybersecurity incidents in its business areas [20] Equity Market Analysis - In May, the A-share market rebounded significantly, with the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 2.32% and 2.94% respectively, driven by a series of stabilizing measures [21][22] - The MSCI China A-share Index increased by 1.6% in May, reflecting positive market sentiment [21] - Southbound capital maintained a net inflow of 41.992 billion yuan in May, indicating strong investor interest [21] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank net injected 599.8 billion yuan in May, responding to liquidity pressures from accelerated government bond issuance [46][47] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.68%, reflecting stable market conditions despite external uncertainties [46] Commodity Market Analysis - The non-ferrous metals market showed signs of recovery, while crude oil prices rebounded from recent lows [23] - Agricultural products, particularly pork, continued to experience weak fluctuations, indicating ongoing market challenges [23] Policy Impact Analysis - The adjustment of the CSI 300 index sample reflects a shift towards emerging sectors, enhancing market representation [22] - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, indicating a need for further counter-cyclical policy measures to support economic stability [23][24]