财政和货币政策宽松

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高市早苗意外胜选引爆市场!日元暴跌,日股要起飞?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-10-05 22:16
Core Viewpoint - The market's reaction to the election of high-profile politician Kishi Sanae is expected to lead to increased concerns over bond supply and a decrease in expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, potentially resulting in a rise in Japanese stocks and long-term government bond yields while weakening the yen [2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Analysts predict that domestic demand-driven stocks and small-cap stocks may benefit from growth expectations, while bank stocks, which had previously risen due to interest rate hike expectations, may face challenges [2]. - Following Kishi Sanae's victory in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election, there is speculation that the Japanese stock market may react positively, with long-term government bond yields expected to rise slightly [2][5]. - The Japanese 10-year government bond yield has recently hovered near its highest level since 2008, influenced by cautious attitudes towards fiscal spending and speculation about interest rate hikes [5][7]. Group 2: Economic Policies - Kishi Sanae's victory may lead to a loosening of fiscal discipline, with market expectations that she will not strongly support interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [6]. - There is a possibility that Kishi Sanae's growth-promoting strategies may not significantly expand public sector deficits, which could mitigate further yen selling [5]. - Kishi Sanae has previously expressed that raising interest rates is "foolish," but her recent comments suggest a more moderate stance, indicating that the Bank of Japan should maintain current interest rates [5][6]. Group 3: Sector Impacts - Stocks in sectors such as artificial intelligence, technology, and industrials may benefit from Kishi Sanae's strategic investments, with potential rebounds in the automotive industry if trade agreement terms with the U.S. are successfully renegotiated [8]. - The focus is shifting towards the composition of the next cabinet and how the Liberal Democratic Party will collaborate with opposition parties, as the party has lost its majority in both houses of parliament [9].