Core Viewpoint - UBS forecasts that the US economy is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 3% over the next few quarters, supported by three main pillars: strengthened capital expenditure, structural improvements in the labor market, and adjustments in fiscal policy [1][2] Group 1: Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure has shown significant growth of 13%-14% in the first half of the year, driven by tax incentives such as 100% expensing for capital expenditures and construction [1] - The efficiency of capital formation is seen as a key factor in driving productivity growth, with an expected annual productivity growth rate stabilizing at around 2% or slightly lower [1] Group 2: Labor Market - The labor supply growth is projected to stabilize in the range of 0.7%-0.8%, benefiting from improved legal immigration policies and increased participation rates among older individuals [1] - Structural adjustments in policies, such as the elimination of tip taxes and overtime taxes, are creating positive incentives for the labor market [1] Group 3: Fiscal Policy - The US fiscal budget showed a surplus of approximately $20 billion in June, an improvement of nearly $90 billion compared to the same period last year [1] - The withdrawal of student loan forgiveness is expected to save about $150 billion in fiscal spending this year, providing financial space for labor market expansion [1] Group 4: Counterarguments to CBO Predictions - UBS refutes the pessimistic forecasts of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), arguing that actual productivity growth is closer to 2% and labor growth can reach 0.7%-0.8%, which together support the 3% GDP growth [2] - The report criticizes the notion that tariffs have a secondary effect on inflation, stating that most tariff costs have been absorbed by exporters, with only a one-time adjustment reflected in domestic price levels [2] Group 5: Infrastructure Investment - The government is accelerating infrastructure investment by simplifying building permit processes and implementing 100% expensing policies for factories and data centers, addressing long-term weaknesses in US construction investment [2] - The expected reduction in the fiscal deficit is anticipated to be significantly smaller than last year's levels, aided by improvements in budget surplus and spending optimization [2]

Core Viewpoint - Argentine President Milei stated that if external shocks intensify, the government will further adjust its fiscal policy by reducing public spending [1] Group 1 - The Argentine government is prepared to implement additional fiscal adjustments in response to potential external economic pressures [1]