Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term A - share market may continue to fluctuate upwards, but short - term volatility should be watched out for. The style may become more balanced in the future, and a defensive allocation is recommended, focusing on opportunities in technology sector rotation, high - dividend, and cyclical sectors. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish [6]. - The "watch - the - stock - to - trade - bonds" principle dominates short - term trading, and the bond market is difficult to decline significantly before the stock market cools down [8]. Group 2: Stock Index Strategy Stock Index Trend Review - Last week, the A - share market showed a significant divergence. The Shanghai Composite Index representing large - cap blue - chips fell, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index rose. The weakness of financial and real - estate sectors dragged down the Shanghai - related indices, while the growth - style sectors provided support for relevant indices [6]. Technical Analysis - The market maintained a differentiated pattern last week. The ChiNext and STAR Market indices were strong, while the SSE 50 was weak. After a ground - volume rebound on a certain day in August, there was a significant volume decline on Thursday, forming a divergence with the previous up - volume. The short - term profit - taking pressure was prominent [6]. Strategy Outlook - Reasonably control positions and pay attention to policies and sector rotation rhythms [6]. Group 3: Treasury Bond Strategy Treasury Bond Trend Review - The bond market oscillated last week. Although the central bank made a net injection, liquidity did not loosen significantly due to tax - period disturbances. Rumors of the central bank's bond - buying operation and the Fed's interest - rate cut provided some support [9]. Technical Analysis - The T - contract K - line oscillated upwards, with the MACD yellow and white lines intertwined, and the BOLL lines still opening downwards [9]. Strategy Outlook - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish. It is recommended to reduce positions in a timely manner [9]. Group 4: Key Data Tracking PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal trends. Both supply and demand sides weakened, with external demand falling more significantly on the demand side and production slowing on the supply side. Upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while downstream export - oriented industries were suppressed [13]. Inflation - In a certain month, the year - on - year CPI was flat, and the month - on - month CPI rose by 0.4%. The year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6%, and the month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI remained sluggish [16]. Industrial Added Value - The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in a certain month dropped to 5.7%, and the growth rate of the service production index dropped to 5.8%. The decline in industrial added value was mainly due to the export - oriented industries such as automobiles, electronics, textiles, and electrical machinery [19]. Fixed - Asset Investment - The estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in a certain month turned negative to - 5.2%. The reasons were complex, including short - term factors like extreme weather and statistical method issues, medium - term factors such as export - expectation decline and policy implementation, and long - term factors like the shrinking real - estate investment [22]. Social Retail Sales - The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in a certain month dropped to 3.7%, and that of above - quota retail sales dropped to 2.8%. The decline was mainly reflected in low - level fluctuations in catering revenue, weak sales of state - subsidized products, and a decline in real - estate - related consumption [25]. Social Financing - In a certain month, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were negative. At the end of the month, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 9.0%, and that of M2 was 8.8%. Although the credit growth was negative, the growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and policies may be adjusted according to the situation [28]. Import and Export - In a certain month, China's exports were $3217.8 billion, imports were $2235.4 billion, and the trade surplus was $982.4 billion. The import and export performance was stronger than expected, mainly due to the "rush" behavior under the threat of US tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [31]. Group 5: Weekly Focus - The report lists a series of US economic indicators to be focused on, including the second - quarter core PCE price index, personal consumption expenditure, real GDP, and initial jobless claims [33].

Economic Overview - The domestic economy faces multiple uncertainties in the second half of the year due to a complex external environment, necessitating a focus on high-quality development and contingency planning [1][14] - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with a strong performance in the second quarter at 5.2%, exceeding market expectations [1] Economic Highlights - Four key highlights of the domestic economy in the first half of the year include: 1. Production maintained rapid growth, with industrial added value increasing by 6.4% year-on-year [2] 2. Foreign trade showed strong performance, with exports growing by 5.9% year-on-year, supported by diversified trade partnerships [3] 3. Consumer demand continued to be released, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5.0% year-on-year [4] 4. Market confidence showed signs of recovery, with the A-share market reaching a three-and-a-half-year high and foreign exchange reserves returning to $3.3 trillion [4] Economic Risks - The nominal GDP growth rate continues to lag behind real GDP, indicating significant downward pressure on domestic prices, with CPI growth at 0.1% and PPI declining by 3.6% [5] - Risks include potential declines in external demand due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and the impact of geopolitical tensions on global trade [6][7] - Consumer spending is showing signs of slowing down, with retail sales growth dropping to 4.8% in June [7][8] - Fixed asset investment growth has decreased to 2.8%, with private investment declining by 0.6% [9] Policy Directions - The government is focusing on deepening reforms rather than stimulus measures in the second half of the year, with an emphasis on expanding domestic demand [10][12] - Fiscal policy includes an increase in the broad deficit ratio to 8.4%, providing a buffer against external shocks [10] - Monetary policy remains supportive, with a series of measures implemented to stabilize market confidence and expectations [11] Reform Initiatives - Key reform initiatives include promoting income growth and reducing burdens on residents to enhance consumption capacity [12] - The government is also working on establishing a unified national market to eliminate local protectionism and improve market competition [13]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) expresses confidence and capability to minimize the uncertainties and adverse impacts from external shocks, aiming to promote sustained and healthy economic development [1] Economic Environment - The complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the current external environment have increased, posing challenges to stable global economic growth, which may affect China's economic stability [1] - Recent forecasts from the World Bank and OECD have downgraded global economic growth predictions by 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, while maintaining stable growth predictions for China [1] Economic Forecasts - International investment banks such as Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have raised their economic growth forecasts for China [1] - The implementation of existing policies is accelerating, and new reserve policies are being introduced, contributing to the confidence in managing external uncertainties [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Ministry of Finance emphasizes that foreign exchange reserves continue to provide a buffer against external shocks [1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange reserves are crucial for maintaining economic stability and mitigating risks associated with global financial fluctuations [1] - The reserves serve as a protective measure for the economy, ensuring that it can withstand potential external pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data reflects the impact of tariff shocks, indicating that the previous "export rush" has come to an end, with significant declines in both manufacturing PMI and new export orders, surpassing the declines seen in 2018 [1] Dimension 1: Direct Impact - The new export orders index for April PMI dropped by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, marking a decline much steeper than the -2.7 percentage points seen during the lowest growth rates between 2018-2019 [5] - High-frequency data also shows a clear decline in export container freight rates to regions such as the U.S. West Coast, East Coast, and South America in April, signaling the end of the "export rush" [5] Dimension 2: Indirect Impact - The PMI new orders index, representing domestic demand, fell to 49.2% (down 2.6 percentage points), while the PMI production index dropped to 49.8% (down 2.8 percentage points), both falling below the growth threshold and contributing to the overall decline in manufacturing PMI [11] Dimension 3: Corporate Behavior Impact - As demand weakens, companies are more inclined to reduce prices to clear inventory, with the PMI finished goods inventory index decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 47.3% and the PMI production expectations index falling by 1.7 percentage points [13] - The PMI ex-factory price index also declined by 3.1 percentage points to 44.8%, indicating ongoing downward pressure on inflation [13] Dimension 4: Employment and Expectations Impact - The negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the PMI employment index and production expectations index may be more significant and longer-lasting than the direct effects on exports [16] - The PMI employment index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9%, aligning with the political bureau's emphasis on "stabilizing employment," "stabilizing enterprises," and "stabilizing expectations" [16] Dimension 5: Impact by Enterprise Type - In April, the PMIs for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.2%, 48.8%, and 48.7% respectively, with declines of 2.0 percentage points, 1.1 percentage points, and 0.9 percentage points, indicating a downturn in business sentiment across all sizes, particularly among small enterprises [17] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing sector also experienced a decline, with the construction PMI at 51.9% (down 1.5 percentage points) and the services PMI at 50.1% (down 0.2 percentage points), both at historically low levels [20] Policy Implications - The tariff shocks reflected in the PMI data suggest that policy measures may need to prioritize "stabilizing livelihoods" over "total countermeasures," with a focus on targeted structural policies for affected enterprises expected to be accelerated [22]

Core Viewpoint - Argentine President Milei stated that if external shocks intensify, the government will further adjust its fiscal policy by reducing public spending [1] Group 1 - The Argentine government is prepared to implement additional fiscal adjustments in response to potential external economic pressures [1]