来源丨硅兔赛跑（ID：sv_race） 编译丨Xuushan 编辑丨伊凡 普通人如何才能更好的渡过这一难关？ "这是一场货币、政治、边缘秩序的崩溃现象。" "这种崩溃现象，我们一生只会遇到过一次，但站在历史的长河里，这类事情曾发生过很多次。" "长期来看，持有现金有可能是普通人做出的最坏的投资决策。" 4月9日，美国总统宣布的关税政策正式生效。时代激变之下，普通人要如何渡过经济周期？ 桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）近期接受外媒CNBC的视频采访，讲述此次经济危机与1930年前 后的大萧条情况相似，历史正在重演，现有的世界秩序体系面临崩坏；他认可美国制造业需要回归，但 同样也担忧如今的美国是否能够寻找到足够多的人才回到制造业中；而目前的关税政策或许难以解决美 国当下的债务问题、竞争力问题以及制造业问题。 同时，他还给出了一些方向性的指引：普通人如何才能更好的渡过这一难关？ 小编在不影响原文的情况下，编译了此次对话，并进行的调序，enjoy～ 主持人：现在我们还在努力理解新关税政策意味着什么？您能帮助我们了解历史，或者解读此次关税风 波在历史上有哪些相似之处，及其未来走向。 瑞·达利欧： 我们有时 ...

Core Viewpoints - The economic growth target for this year is set at around 5%, consistent with last year's target, but reflects a more conservative outlook due to increasingly complex external conditions [1][4] - The fiscal deficit is projected to increase to 4%, surpassing the previous threshold of 3%, indicating a stronger push for fiscal stimulus [2][6] - The focus on expanding domestic demand has been elevated as a primary task, with significant emphasis on promoting consumption through various measures [3][10] Economic Growth Targets - The government has set the economic growth target at approximately 5%, maintaining the same level as last year, but with a more cautious approach due to external challenges [1][4] - The consumer price index target has been adjusted to around 2%, down from 3%, reflecting a more realistic assessment while increasing its binding force [1][4] - The urgency to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP has intensified, with a target reduction of 13.5% set in the 14th Five-Year Plan, impacting high-energy-consuming industries like steel and chemicals [1][4] Central Policy Adjustments - The fiscal budget deficit is set at 4%, with a planned scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year's budget [2][6] - Local government special bonds are projected to reach 4.4 trillion yuan, a 13% increase from last year, indicating a significant rise in fiscal capacity [2][6] - The monetary policy is characterized as "moderately loose," with potential for timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [7] Key Focus Areas - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with a focus on enhancing consumption capabilities and promoting supply release [3][10] - The government plans to allocate 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption of new goods through trade-in programs, doubling last year's funding [3][10] - The report emphasizes a higher technological content in industrial policies, with specific support for sectors such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and artificial intelligence [11] Real Estate Regulation - The real estate regulation continues with a strategy of "controlling new supply and managing existing stock," aiming to revitalize the market [12][13] - The report suggests integrating eligible rural migrant workers into the housing security system, which could stimulate demand in the real estate market [13] Support for Childbirth - The introduction of childcare subsidies at the national level acknowledges the effectiveness of local policies and indicates potential increases in central financial support for childbirth [13]