本文来自微信公众号：商隐社 （ID：shangyinshecj），作者：浩然，题图来自：AI生成 经济周期有起有落，通往无限，而人无论壮年期还是整个生命都是非常有限的，倘若在最富创造力的壮年恰逢经济上行周期，那无疑会有更多财富创造的 机会。 反之，就会像成长于日本"失去的三十年"中的年轻人，在媒体的报道中，他们似乎是步步踏空。 周期有起伏，人无再少年，这该怎么解？ 一、大债务周期 最近读了瑞·达利欧刚出版不久的《国家为什么会破产：大周期》，主要讲的是债务如何导致了经济衰退、国家破产，而这也必然会波及每个普通人。 看似宏大的命题，其实跟普通人如何保卫钱包、应对周期息息相关。 达利欧提出了"大债务周期"这样一个概念，既然能称为"周期"，就表明这种现象会按照一定规律反复上演——他观察了过去100多年35个国家的案例，发 现即便所处的时间、空间有差异，但由债务引发危机的模式几乎是相同的。 "大债务周期"是怎样运行的呢？ 信贷很容易被创造，贷款人希望钱生钱，借款人希望拿钱做更多消费、投资。而且现在借款门槛变得越来越低，除了银行，每个互联网平台都想借点钱给 你。 而一个人的支出就是另一个人的收入，当信贷大量产生时，人们的 ...

Group 1 - A-shares have outperformed U.S. stocks, with a relative excess return exceeding 15% since the second half of the year, marking the highest level since 2015 [1][3] - The probability of A-shares outperforming U.S. stocks increases when both markets rise together, with A-shares winning approximately 54% of the time in such scenarios [3][5] - Historical analysis shows that A-shares have outperformed U.S. stocks in 10 distinct phases since the early 1990s, with the average duration of these phases being around 10 months [5][6] Group 2 - The main factors influencing A-share performance during winning phases include valuation and earnings contributions, with valuation changes playing a more significant role [6][10] - In winning phases, sectors such as machinery, finance, military, and technology tend to perform better, although specific sector performance can vary by economic conditions [10][12] - A-shares typically outperform during upward phases of the economic cycle, but can also win during U.S. economic downturns if the U.S. market experiences significant corrections [12][17] Group 3 - The current winning phase for A-shares began in June 2025, with the potential for continuation depending on market conditions and policy support [20][21] - Future performance may depend on whether both markets enter a cooling phase, with a greater decline in U.S. stocks, or if A-shares continue to rise independently [21]

Group 1: Key Features of Trump's Tariff Policy - Trump's tariff policy has three main characteristics: 1) "Threatening" nature with pre-announced tariffs often exceeding market expectations, but actual implementation being relatively moderate 2) Tariffs are implemented in phases, starting with small-scale and limited tariffs before gradually expanding 3) Numerous tariff exemptions and product exclusions slow the average tariff increase, allowing businesses and governments time to adjust [1] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on the U.S. Economy - The overall economic cycle indicates that prior to Trump's presidency, the rising unemployment rate suggested the U.S. was in the mid to late stages of the economic cycle, with tariffs potentially increasing economic downturn risks and unemployment, but the implementation of the American Rescue Plan has improved mid-term economic prospects [2] - Inflation transmission from tariffs has been slow, influenced by multiple tariff exemptions and importers "rushing to import," with three key factors: 1) Exporters absorbing part of the tariff costs 2) U.S. producers absorbing some price increases 3) Declining energy prices offsetting commodity price increases, although these mitigating factors are diminishing [2] Group 3: Production and Manufacturing Impact - Tariffs have positively influenced domestic manufacturing capacity utilization, with production growth not significantly declining despite tariff shocks, driven by a surge in new and unfilled orders [3] - Key industries such as steel, aluminum, and automotive have seen improved production growth and capacity utilization due to rising import costs, although manufacturing employment has been sluggish, primarily due to structural impacts from AI development [3] Group 4: Future Economic Impact of Tariffs - The transmission of tariff increases to the economy will continue to be delayed, with U.S. manufacturing capacity expanding and companies preparing for new tariff shocks [4] - A significant rise in total tariffs is expected post-August, with anticipated economic growth slowing and inflation rising above 3%, as domestic substitution has limited short-term potential and investment from other countries remains uncertain [4] - The absorption of tariff costs by exporters and domestic producers may have reached its limit, constraining future oil price declines, while the potential for a rate cut in September may be impacted by inflation pressures in Q4 [4]

- The report mentions the "Four-Wheel Drive Model" as a quantitative model used for analyzing trading opportunities across various sectors[17] - The model identifies potential trading signals based on sector-specific metrics and ETF benchmarks, such as the CSI 931409 (China Securities Shanghai-Shenzhen Innovative Medicine Index) and CSI 931071 (China Securities Artificial Intelligence Index)[17] - The model highlights short-term rebound opportunities in sectors like banking, innovative medicine, and artificial intelligence, based on technical indicators such as low-level stabilization signals and moving average alignments[17]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the **U.S. economy** and **China's trade dynamics**, particularly in relation to the **Belt and Road Initiative** and the impact of U.S. fiscal policies on global capital expenditure cycles. U.S. Economic Insights - U.S. fiscal policy is experiencing cyclical expansion, particularly during the third to sixth years of a presidential term, significantly influencing global capital expenditure cycles and indirectly affecting the global economy through domestic industry and U.S. stock performance [1][4] - Post-pandemic, U.S. consumer spending has reached historical highs, while the savings rate has dropped to historical lows, indicating a close relationship between personal consumption expenditures, fiscal policy, and stock market performance, suggesting a potential economic recession starting in 2027-2028 [1][6] - Employment in private education, healthcare services, leisure, and hospitality has significantly increased, while manufacturing and mining sectors have contracted, reflecting structural shocks from the pandemic and advancements in artificial intelligence [1][8][9] - The U.S. stock market is expected to have upward momentum before the midterm elections, but a significant downturn is anticipated between 2027 and 2030, coinciding with structural employment issues leading to a negative feedback loop in the economy [1][10] China Trade Dynamics - As of May 2025, exports to Belt and Road countries accounted for half of China's total exports, with growth rates significantly outpacing those to non-Belt and Road countries, highlighting the increasing support of the Belt and Road strategy for China's foreign trade [3][13] - In the first five months of 2025, China's export share slightly increased from 13.9% to 14.0%, with expectations of exceeding 14% for the entire year despite challenges such as U.S. tariffs [12] - The July 2025 import and export data showed strong performance, with exports reaching $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and imports at $223.54 billion, up 4.1% [14] - Key contributors to China's export growth include electromechanical products and high-tech products, with integrated circuits experiencing a 29.2% year-on-year increase in July, driven by global AI demand [16] Employment Trends in the U.S. - The U.S. unemployment rate has shown a slight increase compared to 2022, indicating potential recession signs, but the overall economic condition remains stable, suggesting a recession may not occur until 2027-2028 [7] - Employment growth has been notable in private education and healthcare sectors due to increased demand post-pandemic, while manufacturing and mining sectors have faced declines due to structural changes [8][9] Future Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain strength through 2026, with a significant downturn anticipated post-2027, emphasizing the importance of the current trading window [10] - China's trade performance is expected to face challenges in the second half of the year due to high base effects from the previous year, but the Belt and Road Initiative may continue to provide support [18] Additional Insights - Traditional export categories such as textiles, bags, and clothing have shown poor performance, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [19] - The U.S. continues to exert a drag on China's exports, while ASEAN and EU countries provide substantial support, with July exports to ASEAN and the EU growing by 16.6% and 9.24%, respectively [20]

编者按：高盛全球投资研究部宏观分析师最新表示，尽管市场出现各种波动，但这几点仍然成立：做多美国股票（偏向 科技股）；做多价值储存资产（黄金 / 白银 / 比特币）； 做空美元（规模适中）； 收益率曲线陡峭化交易（全球适 用）。 一、美股市场叙事 上周一走进办公室时，我原以为市场的主导话题会是美国劳动力市场新出现的疲软迹象。 但到周末时，情况已很明显，市场并未受到明显影响，非农就业报告也没有改变风险偏好。 我并不是说市场走势平稳，实际上，这更像是一场拉锯战，每天都有各自的故事 —— 但数据说明了一切。 也就是说：标普 500 指数收复了上周的全部失地，纳斯达克 100 指数再创历史新高。 事后看来，对于这种韧性，我提出三个假设： i. 本周（指截至8月10日这周，下同）又有新的人工智能刺激因素（例如，Palantir 全程走高，再涨 21%）。 ii. 尽管投机性需求在减弱，但更广泛的资本流动仍然健康…… 实际经济和企业的买盘活动都很活跃。 iii. 本周再次提醒我们一个永恒的真理：经济周期固然重要，但股市并非经济本身。 二、市场框架 从技术面来看，整体仍呈积极态势，但在交易界大幅增持风险资产之后，接下来的操作 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the local asset management company (AMC) industry [2] Core Insights - The demand for resolving non-performing assets (NPAs) has increased due to fluctuations in the domestic macroeconomic environment, providing significant growth opportunities for the NPA management industry [4] - The local AMCs play a crucial role in the diversified market structure of the NPA management industry, primarily focusing on the acquisition, management, and disposal of NPAs [9][10] - The regulatory environment has evolved, with the establishment of a unified regulatory framework aimed at promoting the healthy development of the local AMC industry [12][20] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The NPA management industry is characterized by a supply chain that includes upstream sources of NPAs, midstream management companies, and downstream investors [4][6] - The primary sources of NPAs include banks, non-bank financial institutions, and non-financial institutions, with banks being the traditional and largest source [5] Market Dynamics - The local AMCs have stabilized in number since 2021, with 59 recognized by regulatory authorities as of mid-2025, predominantly state-owned [9][10] - The development of local AMCs is closely correlated with the scale and quality of NPAs in their respective regions, influenced by local economic and regulatory environments [10] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory framework has shifted from a lenient approach to a more stringent one since 2019, with the introduction of the "153 Document" and the recent "Interim Measures for the Supervision and Management of Local Asset Management Companies" [11][12] - The new regulations emphasize compliance, risk management, and a return to core business functions for local AMCs, establishing specific quantitative indicators for monitoring [12][21] Business Trends - The local AMC industry is experiencing diversification in market supply, disposal methods, and financing channels, with a growing emphasis on "investment banking" style asset processing [15][16] - There is a noticeable internal differentiation within the industry, with state-owned AMCs receiving more support compared to their private counterparts, which face increasing operational challenges [17][18] Future Outlook - The local AMC industry is expected to continue evolving, with opportunities arising from economic recovery, real estate risk resolution, and financial institution reforms, despite facing significant competitive and regulatory pressures [20][21]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is projected to experience a nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 5% in 2024, followed by a slight decline to 4.9% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026 due to tariff impacts and diminishing policy effects[64] - China's economic recovery is characterized by fluctuations, with GDP growth expected to rise from 4.6% in Q3 2024 to 5.4% in Q1 2025, before declining again[64] Stock Market Performance - In the economic contraction phase, stocks generally decline significantly, with essential consumption, energy, utilities, and healthcare sectors outperforming, while real estate and technology sectors lag behind[18] - During the economic recovery phase, stocks in discretionary consumption, real estate, technology, and materials sectors show the highest gains, while utilities and essential consumption sectors underperform[18] Sector Analysis - In the economic expansion phase, technology, finance, and real estate sectors tend to outperform, while utilities, essential consumption, and healthcare sectors underperform[18] - Average annual returns for the consumer discretionary sector during the recovery phase are 40.8%, with a market outperformance rate of 64.5%[15] Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators include consumer confidence, manufacturing orders, and employment rates, which are closely linked to stock market performance[28][29] - The U.S. consumer confidence index has a direct correlation with the S&P 500 index, indicating that increased consumer confidence typically leads to stock market gains[27] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy is influenced by the Taylor rule, which incorporates inflation rates and unemployment levels to determine the federal funds rate[43] - High fiscal deficit rates combined with low household savings rates contribute to high inflation and interest rates in the U.S. economy[46] Currency and International Relations - The U.S. dollar index is expected to fluctuate, potentially dropping below 95, with a slight rebound anticipated towards the end of the year[55] - The relationship between the U.S.-China nominal GDP growth rates and interest rate differentials will influence the USD/CNY exchange rate, with projections suggesting a slight appreciation of the yuan[114] Investment Strategy - The S&P 500 is forecasted to rise by 3% in the second half of the year and 8.5% for the entire year, with a favorable outlook on sectors such as information technology, communication services, finance, healthcare, and essential consumption[50]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected resilience of the Chinese stock market (A-shares) amidst global market declines following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, suggesting that the anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts could benefit the Chinese market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3617.60, gaining 34.29 points (+0.96%), while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext also saw increases [2]. - Despite global market turmoil, the Chinese market experienced a two-day rally, defying expectations of a downturn [1]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - The article attributes the strength of the Chinese market to the potential shift in capital flows due to U.S. interest rate cuts, which could favor the Chinese economy [3]. - A significant factor in China's economic struggles is identified as the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., with the current U.S. federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% and China's 5-year LPR at 3.5%, creating a roughly 1% difference [4]. - The disparity in deposit rates is even more pronounced, with U.S. 1-year fixed deposit rates between 4%-4.6% compared to China's 0.95%, leading to a deposit rate differential exceeding 4% [4]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, China's interest rates were higher than those in the U.S., particularly during periods of robust economic growth, which attracted significant capital inflows and fueled real estate market prosperity [10]. - The shift in interest rates began around April 2022, when Chinese rates fell below U.S. rates, coinciding with a downturn in the Chinese real estate market and broader economic challenges [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article posits that the current low valuation of Chinese capital markets is largely influenced by the ongoing U.S. interest rate hike cycle and the significant interest rate differential [15]. - A potential shift to a U.S. interest rate cut could lead to a recovery in Chinese asset prices, as seen during previous rate cut cycles [17].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic strategies and market conditions in the United States and China, with a focus on the implications for various asset classes, including equities and commodities. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Relations**: The recent US-China trade talks in Stockholm were constructive, with both sides agreeing to extend discussions on tariffs and countermeasures for 90 days, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [1] 2. **US Economic Expansion**: The US economy has been expanding for 63 consecutive months, avoiding recession, but the growth rate has been declining over the decades, currently averaging around 2% [2] 3. **Labor Productivity and AI**: The US labor productivity cycle appears to be at a low point but is expected to improve due to the ongoing AI revolution, which could increase demand for precious metals [2] 4. **Market Speculation**: There are signs of increased speculation in the US market, with a surge in penny stocks and call options, indicating a potential market top [3] 5. **Dollar Dynamics**: The relationship between the US dollar and long-term inflation expectations has changed since the Fed's rapid interest rate hikes began in 2021, with the dollar now seen as a high-yield investment rather than just a currency [6] 6. **China's Economic Outlook**: China's economy performed better than expected in the first half of the year, but there are concerns about growth pressures in the second half, leading to increased government spending and subsidies [7] 7. **Commodity Prices**: Upstream commodity prices are rising, although recent corrections may be due to regulatory guidance to prevent excessive price increases [7] 8. **Inflation Transmission**: Historical data shows that changes in upstream inflation eventually affect downstream consumer prices, indicating that expectations, rather than current prices, drive market behavior [8] 9. **Stock Market Performance**: If deflationary expectations are curbed, it could positively impact stock market performance, as upstream price increases lead to improved profit margins across the capital market [10] 10. **Market Sentiment and Strategy**: There is a prevailing market sentiment that the state may reduce holdings if the index exceeds 3500, but this logic may not hold if the market continues to rise [12] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The analysis suggests that the current market conditions are characterized by high liquidity, which may support continued market activity despite signs of overbought conditions [12] - The discussion emphasizes the importance of changing expectations in the market, which can lead to shifts in demand and price levels, rather than just focusing on current price movements [8]