债券 2026 年 3 月 6 日 政府工作报告学习体会 政策性金融工具积极发力，货币强调灵活高效 证券分析师 证 券 研 究 报 告 风险提示：1）外围地缘政治局势急剧变化；2）降准降息时机和力度存在不 确定性；3）经济数据开门红情况不及预期。 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519060001 LIULU979@pingan.com.cn 郑子辰 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521090001 ZHENGZICHEN160@pingan.com.cn 前言：2026 年 3 月 5 日，全国两会召开，发布 2026 年《政府工作报告》。 "十五五"规划开局之年，目标设置基本符合市场预期。1）2026 年 GDP 增速设定在 4.5%-5%左右的区间目标，强调"在实际工作中努力争取更好 结果"。2）居民消费价格涨幅目标维持 2%左右，持平去年；3）城镇调查 失业率目标 5.5％左右，城镇新增就业目标 1200 万人以上，持平去年。 财政政策方面，2026 年政府债供给规模基本持平，政策性金融工具超预期。 财政政策延续"更加积极"的基调，考虑到置换债后，2026 年政府债供给 合计约 13.89 万亿，整体 ...

2026 年全国"两会"政府工作报告要点解读 2026 年 3 月 5 日，国务院总理李强代表国务院向十四届全国人大四次会议 作《政府工作报告》（以下简称"《报告》"）。报告提出了 2026 年主要经济 预期目标，并对重大宏观政策、重点工作任务做出安排部署。对此，我们作如下 要点解读： 一、2026 年 GDP 增速目标设定为"4.5%-5%","在实际工作中努力争取更 好结果"。这一增速目标较过去两年的"5.0%左右"有所调整，符合市场预期。 我们分析背后有以下原因：一是伴随经济发展水平提高，经济增速会自然回落， 这意味着经济增速目标也要随之调整。可以看到，过去一段时期，每隔两到三年， GDP 增速目标都会有所调整。"5.0%左右"的增长目标已经延续两年，今年调整 符合惯例，也能使经济增长目标与我国经济增长潜力基本吻合。二是体现高质量 发展要求，引导各地各部门将主要精力放在全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发 展格局，着力推动经济转型升级等方面。三是 2026 年伴随美国高关税对全球贸 易和我国出口影响的持续体现，外需对经济增长的拉动力趋于减弱，国内有效需 求不足问题仍待破解，经济面临一定下行压力；适度下调 G ...

Core Viewpoints - The economic growth target for this year is set at around 5%, consistent with last year's target, but reflects a more conservative outlook due to increasingly complex external conditions [1][4] - The fiscal deficit is projected to increase to 4%, surpassing the previous threshold of 3%, indicating a stronger push for fiscal stimulus [2][6] - The focus on expanding domestic demand has been elevated as a primary task, with significant emphasis on promoting consumption through various measures [3][10] Economic Growth Targets - The government has set the economic growth target at approximately 5%, maintaining the same level as last year, but with a more cautious approach due to external challenges [1][4] - The consumer price index target has been adjusted to around 2%, down from 3%, reflecting a more realistic assessment while increasing its binding force [1][4] - The urgency to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP has intensified, with a target reduction of 13.5% set in the 14th Five-Year Plan, impacting high-energy-consuming industries like steel and chemicals [1][4] Central Policy Adjustments - The fiscal budget deficit is set at 4%, with a planned scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year's budget [2][6] - Local government special bonds are projected to reach 4.4 trillion yuan, a 13% increase from last year, indicating a significant rise in fiscal capacity [2][6] - The monetary policy is characterized as "moderately loose," with potential for timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [7] Key Focus Areas - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with a focus on enhancing consumption capabilities and promoting supply release [3][10] - The government plans to allocate 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption of new goods through trade-in programs, doubling last year's funding [3][10] - The report emphasizes a higher technological content in industrial policies, with specific support for sectors such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and artificial intelligence [11] Real Estate Regulation - The real estate regulation continues with a strategy of "controlling new supply and managing existing stock," aiming to revitalize the market [12][13] - The report suggests integrating eligible rural migrant workers into the housing security system, which could stimulate demand in the real estate market [13] Support for Childbirth - The introduction of childcare subsidies at the national level acknowledges the effectiveness of local policies and indicates potential increases in central financial support for childbirth [13]